Daily Picks

Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

Sunday, July 26, 20268 racesMonmouth Park

It's a picture-perfect Sunday at the Jersey Shore. Clear skies, 77°F, and Monmouth Park is rolling out an 8-race card that has something for every kind of player — maiden sprints on the dirt, turf routes with wide-open fields, and a pair of Starter Optional Claimers that could set up some tasty exacta prices.

Firm turf and a dry, fast main track mean surface conditions won't be masking anyone's true form today. That's good news for handicappers who lean on speed figures and pace projections — the horses that are running well should run well again, and the pretenders have nowhere to hide.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and our top-rated horse across the entire card is Speed Figures (Race 5, 9/5 ML) with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83. We'll get to him in the premium breakdown — but first, let's talk about the free plays that could get your bankroll moving early.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A clear top-heavy structure on the turf — Peony's 87.81 TrackWiz rating stands above the field, but the morning line favorite Allison Park at 8/5 makes this a two-horse show with legitimate challengers lurking.

win4PeonyML 5/2

Peony (No. 4) is the class of this field by the numbers, posting a top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and backing it up with a sterling 33% career win rate — best in the race by a wide margin. Devon Dougherty sends her out with an average speed figure of 56, tied for the field's best, and the 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint suits a horse with her profile. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a steal, but the combination of raw ability and proven winning habits makes her the right top choice here.

place6Allison ParkML 8/5

Allison Park (No. 6) opens as the 8/5 morning line favorite for trainer Patrick B. McBurney, and her 77.88 rating and 25% career win rate justify the public's confidence. She matches Peony on average speed at 56 and projects as a pace factor or presser on this turf sprint — the kind of horse that rarely runs a bad race and almost always finds the board.

show2True SpunML 7/2

True Spun (No. 2) gives trainer Kathleen O'Connell a second runner in this spot to complement stablemate Immortallove, and at 7/2 she offers solid value for exotics. Her 73.50 rating and 18% career win rate are respectable, and if the pace scenario sets up favorably, Pedro Cotto Jr. can angle her into a rally late over the 5 1/2-furlong turf course.

Race 2

5:21 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Wide-open maiden claiming chaos on the dirt going a route — every horse in here is winless, so form cycles and workout patterns tip the scale, and the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear but surprising order at the top.

win4Elko CountyML 2/1

Elko County (No. 4) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 70.42 despite going off at 2/1 on the morning line — the public has found her too. Trainer Jorge Delgado is also represented by Lumber Legacy, suggesting the barn is feeling confident about this distance, and jockey Chantal Sutherland is a savvy hand for routing route maidens on the dirt. The slight concern is that her 52 average speed figure is on the lower end, but in a field where nobody has won yet, she has enough edge to get the job done.

place2Lumber LegacyML 5/1

Lumber Legacy (No. 2) checks in with the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 68.39, and being stablemates with the top pick under Delgado at least tells us the barn has put two serious horses in here. The 5/1 morning line offers some value for place wagers, and with a slightly longer route at 1 mile 70 yards, a horse showing any late energy could creep into the exacta picture.

show6Mighty MiloML 3/1

Mighty Milo (No. 6) brings a 56.67 rating and a 54 average speed figure — one of the better figures in the field — for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who also saddles Everything Orly. Angel Morales gets the call, and at 3/1 Mighty Milo is respected enough on the morning line to suggest connections believe in him. He rounds out the show spot nicely in a wide-open maiden route.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile with a genuine overlay angle at the top — our top pick opens at 8/1 despite the highest TrackWiz rating in the field, making this one worth a close look from a value standpoint.

win5Tiz AwesomeML 8/1

Tiz Awesome (No. 5) is the standout play here, posting a race-best 79.79 TrackWiz rating while opening at a generous 8/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of price disconnect that sharp bettors circle. Trainer Rory K. Huston also sends out Thegangsallhere in this spot, which may be diluting the public's attention, but Jorge Vargas Jr. gets the mount on the better-rated half of the barn. The one question mark is a modest 52 average speed figure, but on turf the pace scenario and positioning often matter more than raw figures alone.

place6OmahamoiselleML 7/2

Omahamoiselle (No. 6) has the second-highest rating in the field at 77.28 and draws Chantal Sutherland, one of the more experienced hands on the Monmouth circuit. Trainer Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. is a name to respect on turf, and at 7/2 she figures to be prominently wagered — if Tiz Awesome gets the money, Omahamoiselle could offer some place value as the likely second choice.

show3Meadowlark DriveML 3/1

Meadowlark Drive (No. 3) comes in with a 70.49 rating and a 55 average speed figure, both competitive for this field, and trainer Kathleen A. Demasi doubles up with Intothemystic to suggest the barn is engaged. Abner Adorno takes the mount at a fair 3/1 price, and in a maiden turf mile where pacesetters often tire late, a closer profile could slot comfortably into third.

The first three races on the card are open to all readers, and there's real meat here. We open on the turf with Peony (Race 1, 5/2 ML, rating 87.81) — the highest-rated free pick on the card and a horse whose turf numbers jumped out at us in TrackWiz analysis. At 5/2, she's not a steal, but she's the right price for a horse this consistent on firm going. Over in Race 2, Elko County (2/1 ML, rating 70.42) takes on a classic maiden claiming dirt route — the kind of spot where class and pace shape matter more than raw figures, and he checks both boxes. Then Race 3 is where the fun starts: Tiz Awesome opens at 8/1 in a maiden claiming turf mile, and TrackWiz rates him at 79.79 — well above where that morning line suggests he should be. First-time turf routes can be unpredictable, but on a day where the course is playing true, form translates cleanly.

The thread connecting these free plays: turf is the story of the early card. Two of the three free races run on the grass, and with conditions this good, pace scenarios are setting up straightforwardly. Front-runners will get their shot, but the closers will have ground to make up on a surface that's rewarding tactical speed. Keep that bias in mind as you build your early multi-race tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

An intriguing maiden special weight sprint on the dirt where the two morning line co-leaders are separated by less than half a point in TrackWiz ratings — expect a tight photo from the two horses sitting at the top of our model.

win7She's a TwelveML 9/5

She's a Twelve (No. 7) edges this field with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating and shows a 55 average speed figure, matching Tiz Tapping stride for stride on paper. Luis Rivera Jr. gets the assignment for trainer Kelly J. Breen — a combination that carries weight at this level — and at 9/5 she's the public's narrow favorite. In a maiden sprint where debut runners are hard to fully assess, having that speed figure baseline gives her a measurable edge.

place8Tiz TappingML 2/1

Tiz Tapping (No. 8) is virtually a dead heat with the win pick on ratings at 58.33 and also shows a 55 average speed figure, making this as close a 1-2 as you'll find on the card. Trainer Cathal Lynch is a sharp conditioner and Julio Hernandez knows how to handle a short maiden sprint. The 2/1 morning line is fair value for a place ticket, and if She's a Twelve gets bet down further, Tiz Tapping becomes the overlay of the two.

show5La CayetanaML 9/2

La Cayetana (No. 5) opens at 9/2 for trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez with Ramon Moya in the irons, and her 54.17 rating separates her from the bottom half of this field. She has no published average speed figure, which adds some mystery but also suggests first-out potential — sometimes those debut unknowns run huge in these short maiden sprints when they're lightly bet.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Speed Figures — yes, that's actually the horse's name — leads a competitive starter optional claiming turf sprint with a dominant rating advantage, but Cold Feet at 4/1 is the kind of closer that can make life difficult at the wire.

win1Speed FiguresML 9/5

Speed Figures (No. 1) is the easy top of the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83, and the 42% career win rate is elite for this level — nearly half of all career starts have ended in victory. Trainer Kelly J. Breen keeps Luis Rivera Jr. in the saddle, a natural pairing, and the 59 average speed figure is comfortably the best in the field. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but you're paying for a horse who wins at a clip that makes him hard to oppose.

place7Cold FeetML 4/1

Cold Feet (No. 7) comes in at 4/1 with a 84.22 rating and a 31% career win rate — both figures that would top most fields — and trainer Silvino Ramirez has Jorge Luis Gonzalez in the tack. The 5 1/2-furlong turf distance suits a horse whose speed figure of 55 suggests a stalker or closer profile, and if the pace gets hot early with Speed Figures on the lead, Cold Feet is perfectly positioned to pick up the pieces.

show2JetarosML 7/2

Jetaros (No. 2) fills out the show spot with an 82.14 rating and a 30% career win rate, making him one of the most accomplished horses in a field loaded with experience. Jose Antonio Gomez gets the ride for Teresa Pompay, and at 7/2 he's squarely in the market. His 57 average speed figure is second only to Speed Figures in this race, and in a turf sprint any scenario that slows the pace could see Jetaros sneaking into the top two or three at the wire.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite Problematica gets undercut by our model, with Dakota Springs carrying the top TrackWiz rating at more than twice the points of some rivals — this looks like a spot where the public may be leaving value on the table.

win2Dakota SpringsML 5/1

Dakota Springs (No. 2) leads all horses with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, yet opens at a juicy 5/1 on the morning line — that gap between our model and the odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to find. Luis Rivera Jr. takes the mount for trainer Wayne Potts, who also runs Problematica in this race, and the 53 average speed figure is competitive across the entire six-furlong dirt field. If there's a pace duel up front, a horse with this rating edge often has enough late energy to come through.

place7LookingfortreasureML 5/1

Lookingfortreasure (No. 7) checks in with a 79.81 rating and posts a 54 average speed figure — a tick better than most of the field — for trainer Pompeyo Gomez with Jomar Torres up. The 5/1 morning line matches Dakota Springs, which means place money here could build nicely in a mutuel if the public loads up on Problematica across the board.

show5ProblematicaML 9/5

Problematica (No. 5) is the 9/5 favorite and carries a 76.74 rating along with a 21% career win rate, so it's not that our model hates her — she just gets outrated by two horses. Jefferson Skerrett will keep her close to the pace in this six-furlong dirt event, and for show tickets she's a reasonable hedge in case the top two encounter any trouble.

Race 7

7:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Here Comes Leo owns the top TrackWiz rating and an eye-popping 66% career win rate, but the 2/1 morning line favorite Archimedes has a high-profile trainer angle — expect real money on both sides of this turf claiming sprint.

win5Here Comes LeoML 9/2

Here Comes Leo (No. 5) is the standout of the entire race card when you combine rating (84.90) and career win percentage (66%) — two out of every three career starts have ended in victory, which is a remarkable hit rate at any level. Carlos Eduardo Rojas rides for Victor Barboza Jr., and the 57 average speed figure is comfortably the best in the field on a turf sprint where pace counts. Opening at 9/2 with those credentials makes this one of the cleaner value plays on the afternoon.

place10My Man MoneyML 4/1

My Man Money (No. 10) brings a 78.23 rating and an 18% career win rate for trainer Wayne Potts — the same barn sending out Problematica in Race 6, suggesting Potts is active today. Jose C. Ferrer rides this one, and at 4/1 the price is fair for a horse who gets a place slip in an exacta-worthy spot. The 54 average speed figure is middle-of-the-pack, but in a field this wide, staying close and finishing strong gets the job done.

show1CoperniumML 4/1

Copernium (No. 1) is the most fascinating number on this entire card — a 57% career win rate that rivals Here Comes Leo's, paired with a 73.91 TrackWiz rating and a 4/1 morning line. Trainer Anthony Margotta Jr. sends him out with Jose Ferrer, and the 55 average speed figure is solid for 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The lower overall rating may simply reflect recent form rather than ability, and a horse who has won more than half his career starts is always dangerous in this spot.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

All the Luck is doing exactly what the name suggests — this maiden claimer opens at 7/2 despite owning the race's highest TrackWiz rating by a substantial margin, setting up a prime overlay opportunity in the nightcap.

win6All the LuckML 7/2

All the Luck (No. 6) posts an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that laps the field — Skyrush is next at 65.47, a gap of more than 20 points — yet opens at 7/2 on the morning line while the public has installed Skyrush as the 8/5 favorite. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney has a history of placing horses well, and Jose Ferrer is an experienced hand for this six-furlong maiden dirt sprint. A horse this far ahead on our model is the kind of bet you make without apologizing.

place1SkyrushML 8/5

Skyrush (No. 1) is the morning line choice at 8/5 and brings a 65.47 rating with a 54 average speed figure for trainer Danny Gargan and Christian Maragh. While our model prefers All the Luck, Skyrush's market support tells you connections and bettors alike believe in this one, and for place purposes he makes a logical safety net — if anything goes wrong with the top pick, Skyrush is right there.

show5Why Me LordML 7/2

Why Me Lord (No. 5) checks in with a 55.83 rating and a 53 average speed figure for trainer Sergio Rabadan, with Jorge Vargas Jr. navigating the six furlongs on dirt. Opening at 7/2 on the morning line, this one is well-regarded enough to suggest there's form behind the number, and in a field full of winless horses, being the third-best rated runner makes her a natural exotic inclusion.

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Today's card at Monmouth Park is as playable as the weather is beautiful. Start with Peony in Race 1, take a shot with Tiz Awesome at 8/1 in Race 3, and let Elko County anchor your Race 2 wager. Then let TrackWiz subscribers-only analysis guide you through the back half of the card, where the biggest opportunities — and the most complex pace setups — are waiting. Full breakdown available at /pricing. Good luck, and enjoy the sunshine at Monmouth.

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