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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 25, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 25, 2026

Race 13ResoluteML 8/512:50 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Saturday at the Jersey Shore — clear skies, 76 degrees, and the kind of weather that brings out sharp bettors and casual fans alike. Monmouth Park puts up an 8-race card today, and the conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll get all summer. The turf course should be playing firm and fast, which matters on a day when four of the eight races are run on the grass.

The headliner is Race 7, a Stakes event at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, where My Miss Mo draws plenty of early attention at a 3/1 morning line. But don't sleep on the turf action — the grass races today offer some genuinely intriguing pace scenarios and, if our TrackWiz ratings are right, a few prices worth attacking. Eight races, plenty of angles. Let's break it down.

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Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden turf route with a clear TrackWiz rating standout at the top, but the morning line favorite isn't who you'd expect — this one sets up as a form vs. odds puzzle on the grass.

win3ResoluteML 8/5

Resolute is the most straightforward top selection of the card, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 that dwarfs the rest of this maiden field by a wide margin. John C. Servis conditions the horse for Luis M. Ocasio, a sharp barn-and-rider pairing at Monmouth. The 8/5 morning line reflects the market's respect, but in a MSW turf route where experience and pedigree matter, that rating gap is hard to ignore. We're on Resolute to deliver at or near the favorite's price.

place1Battle LouML 6/1

Battle Lou is the most intriguing overlay in this spot — posted at 6/1 on the morning line yet boasting a TrackWiz rating of 77.94, second-best in the field and well clear of the mid-pack horses. Francisco Martinez has been reliable in Monmouth turf routes, and Ruperto A. Perez has a knack for getting maiden turf horses ready to fire fresh. At that price, Battle Lou offers real place value for exacta and trifecta coverage.

show5Tail RiskML 2/1

Tail Risk draws the 2/1 morning line, which makes the public's case clear enough — but our rating of 60.93 puts this one firmly in the third tier behind Resolute and Battle Lou. That said, a 2/1 show price still has value in exotics, and trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias has this horse positioned on the front of the pace scenario over the turf, which at 1 1/16 miles gives it a fighting chance to hang for a piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:22 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Unsolved Mystery looks like a boat race waiting to happen — a 37% career winner with a TrackWiz rating that laps the field, though the pace scenario on this 6-furlong dirt sprint still bears watching.

win6Unsolved MysteryML 2/1

Unsolved Mystery (6) is as dominant on paper as we'll see all day — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a career win percentage of 37% in a field where the next-best win rate belongs to Don't Listen at 27%. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. gets the call, and trainer Luis Rivera, Jr. clearly has this horse positioned to fire in the Starter Optional Claiming ranks. The 2/1 morning line is fair for a horse this superior to its rivals, and in a 6-furlong dirt sprint, sharp closers and pace-pressers can fire quickly. This is a confident top selection.

place2Lady AnnabelleML 5/2

Lady Annabelle (2) makes a strong case for second money, posting a 26% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 64.43 — clear separation from the bottom half of this field. Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado also saddles Don't Listen in this race, but Lady Annabelle gets the better morning line and the higher rating of the barn's two entries. Silvestre Gonzalez is aboard, and the 5/2 morning line on a 26% career winner makes this a natural place bet.

show1Moor StrengthML 5/1

Moor Strength (1) is a honest 11% career winner sitting at 5/1 on the morning line, which suggests some public undervaluation here. The rail post in a 6-furlong sprint at Monmouth can be a double-edged sword, but trainer Irving Rodriguez keeps this horse competitive. An avgSpeed of 54 ties the field average, and Kleiner A. Mejias is an active Monmouth pilot who knows the oval well — enough to grab a piece of this if things set up right.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

We're opening three races for everyone today, and the thread connecting them is turf versatility and pace setup. In Race 1, maiden special weight runners go 1 1/16 miles on the grass, and Resolute (8/5 ML, TrackWiz rating 89.12) stands out as the top-rated horse on the entire card — high praise for a maiden, but the numbers back the confidence. Race 2 flips to the main track for a 6-furlong starter optional claiming sprint, where Unsolved Mystery (2/1 ML, 88.54) projects well in what looks like a manageable pace scenario. Race 3 heads back to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile claiming event, and Into It (2/1 ML, 88.54) shares that same elite rating tier — on a firm turf course under clear skies, horses with grass form and tactical speed deserve serious consideration.

All three free picks carry TrackWiz ratings above 88, meaning they're clustered at the very top of today's card. If you're playing a short afternoon card, these three races are a strong foundation to build from.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Into It is a heavy favorite in this turf claiming mile, but the competitive ratings of Magical Marriage and Mohs make the exacta and trifecta boxes potentially juicy — price players have options here.

win2Into ItML 2/1

Into It (2) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, a number that mirrors the morning line confidence at 2/1. Kelly J. Breen is one of the sharper claiming trainers at Monmouth, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard is a strong jockey-trainer combo for the 1 1/16-mile turf distance. A 20% career win rate in claiming company isn't flashy, but combined with the rating dominance, Into It is the clear top choice and the anchor of any exotic structure.

place5Magical MarriageML 3/1

Magical Marriage (5) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 73.94 and the 3/1 morning line — this is the most likely horse to run Into It down if anything goes wrong. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney interestingly saddles both Magical Marriage and Mohs in this race, and the 13% career win rate suggests a horse that runs well without always converting. Jose Antonio Gomez is a capable hand over the turf, and the mid-field trip expected from this horse plays perfectly into the 1 1/16-mile setup.

show6MohsML 5/2

Mohs (6) is the second McBurney entry and actually has the better win rate of the two at 20%, matching Into It's career mark. A TrackWiz rating of 70.73 puts this horse firmly in the mix, and Chantal Sutherland is a proven turf rider who gets horses running late. At 5/2 on the morning line, Mohs won't be a price play in the show pool, but its place in trifecta coverage is well-earned.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

No Denying enters this 6-furlong dirt claimer as a statistical monster with a 50% career win rate — the question isn't whether it's the class of the field, but whether the 5/2 price offers enough margin for exotic construction.

win6No DenyingML 5/2

No Denying (6) is simply in a different class here — a 50% career win rate is an extraordinary number at any level, and the TrackWiz rating of 87.81 confirms the dominance. Wayne Potts sends this one out under Luis R. Rivera, Jr., who is one of the most active and effective pilots at Monmouth right now. The 5/2 morning line isn't generous, but when a horse wins half its career races, you put it on top and build your tickets around it. Speed figure of 54 is right in the mix for the distance.

place4Derby HangoverML 7/2

Derby Hangover (4) jumps out with an avgSpeed of 55 — the best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 73.61 that makes it the clear second choice on merit. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for Teresa M. Pompay, and the 7/2 morning line is fair value for a horse with this much upside in the speed department. A 9% career win rate is modest, but in a short sprint where early pace dominates, raw speed numbers matter, and Derby Hangover has them.

show2Cassie's VaultML 7/2

Cassie's Vault (2) posts a TrackWiz rating of 61.66 and a 10% career win rate at 7/2 on the morning line — not the most impressive win percentage, but the rating justifies third-best status in the field. Charlie Marquez, a consistent Monmouth presence, gets the mount for Devon Dougherty. At 53 average speed with a clean post, Cassie's Vault is a reasonable show bet and a safe third leg in trifectas with No Denying on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full turf sprint field with two standouts clustered near the top and a surprise show pick at double-digit odds — the wide-open bottom half makes the trifecta worth attacking aggressively.

win3Clay SoldierML 7/2

Clay Soldier (3) edges Bahamian Moon for top honors with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35, and the 7/2 morning line makes this a legitimate value play for the win spot. Michael V. Simone sends out both Clay Soldier and Bahamian Moon, but it's Clay Soldier who gets Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. — arguably the sharper of the two riding assignments. A 15% career win rate doesn't dazzle, but paired with an avgSpeed of 57 — tied for the field high — this horse has the tactical speed to control or press the pace over the short 5 1/2-furlong turf course.

place1Bahamian MoonML 3/1

Bahamian Moon (1) is hard to dismiss with a TrackWiz rating of 83.11 and an avgSpeed of 57 that matches Clay Soldier's field-best number. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the mount for the same barn that runs Clay Soldier, which means Simone is double-barreled here — and either horse could take the win. A 19% career win rate is solid at the claiming level, and the rail post over a short turf sprint can actually be a positive at Monmouth if the pace sets up on the outside.

show5Peggysue I Love UML 10/1

Peggysue I Love U (5) is our show value selection at 10/1 on the morning line — and that price demands attention given a TrackWiz rating of 72.90 and a 26% career win rate that outpaces most of this field. Trainer Tony Wilson places this horse in a spot where the figure is competitive, and Jose Antonio Gomez is a reliable handler for a closer who can sneak into the trifecta at a big price. Don't leave this one off your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

3:34 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

We Ready comes in with the top rating but is offered at 7/2 while Hoodlum sits at 3/1 — this dirt route shapes up as a two-horse battle with a hard-knocking closers' pace that could leave the door open for Brave Bear.

win1We ReadyML 7/2

We Ready (1) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 — the same elite number we see on several of today's top selections — and trainer Bernard G. Dunham has this horse positioned smartly in a Starter Allowance. Andrew Wolfsont gets the mount, and a 9% career win rate is low on the surface, but in Starter Allowance company the rating separation matters more than raw win percentage. At 7/2, there's fair value for a horse that ranks this clearly above the competition.

place7HoodlumML 3/1

Hoodlum (7) is the horse the morning line has as a slight public favorite at 3/1, and with a TrackWiz rating of 77.51 and a 20% career win rate, the respect is understandable. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides for Michael V. Simone — the same trainer-jockey combination that's well-represented today — and the 53 avgSpeed suits the 1 mile and 70 yards distance on dirt. If We Ready hits any trouble in this field, Hoodlum is the most likely beneficiary.

show6Brave BearML 4/1

Brave Bear (6) is the third wheel in this trio, but a 28% career win rate is the best mark in the entire field — and that kind of conversion rate doesn't happen by accident. Chantal Sutherland rides for Joseph Pantaleo, and the 4/1 morning line is a fair reflection of a horse that closes well enough to grab a piece in longer dirt races. The TrackWiz rating of 72.22 is third-best, and in a race where the top two might burn each other up, Brave Bear could be picking up the pieces late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

4:08 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A stakes field featuring a clear TrackWiz favorite in My Miss Mo, but with Pletcher's Zany posting a 60% career win rate and Chad Brown's Point of Reference at double-digit odds, this is far from a one-horse affair.

win5My Miss MoML 3/1

My Miss Mo (5) is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a 33% career win rate under the Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. banner — one of the premier barns operating in the mid-Atlantic. Micah J. Husbands gets the mount, and the 3/1 morning line offers genuine value for a horse rated this highly in a stakes field. The 53 avgSpeed on a 1 1/16-mile dirt track is right at the stakes-level norm, and Joseph's horses tend to run their best in spots exactly like this — a home track stakes with a quality rider in the irons.

place2Jumping the GunML 5/1

Jumping the Gun (2) catches the eye with a TrackWiz rating of 76.84 and a 37% career win rate — a strong conversion number at any level, and especially meaningful in stakes company. Julio A. Hernandez takes the mount for Andrew L. Simoff, and the 5/1 morning line makes this a legitimate place value play against the favorite. With a slightly lower avgSpeed of 52, this one likely plays as a closer or pace-presser, which suits the 1 1/16-mile dirt route perfectly.

show8Bodacious BayML 9/2

Bodacious Bay (8) rounds out our selections with a 33% career win rate — matching My Miss Mo — and a TrackWiz rating of 73.91. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is a quality conditioner who gets horses ready for stakes spots, and Cristian A. Torres provides capable handling. The 9/2 morning line is honest, and an avgSpeed of 54 gives this horse enough tactical speed to be a factor throughout the race rather than relying purely on a late kick.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Souper Document arrives as the dominant maiden claiming turf play of the evening, but Landing Force at 5/1 and a show pick at 5/2 give the trifecta a playable shape around the top selection.

win2Souper DocumentML 2/1

Souper Document (2) is the strongest-rated maiden in the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest mark possible in this price range — and an avgSpeed of 54 that is among the field's best over the 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint. Charlie Marquez handles the mount for Juan Carlos Avila, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the market is aligned with our model. Maiden claiming turf sprints can be unpredictable, but when one horse grades out this clearly above the rest, you take the short price and move on.

place3Landing ForceML 5/1

Landing Force (3) is the most interesting secondary play here, rated 76.50 by TrackWiz and given 5/1 morning line odds — a horse the market isn't fully embracing despite a profile that screams place contender. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. gets the mount for Tony Wilson, and a 53 avgSpeed on the turf sprint is competitive. This is a classic 'overlooked talent' play: high enough rating to matter, long enough price to deliver value in the exacta.

show5Marble HallML 5/2

Marble Hall (5) comes in at 5/2 on the morning line, which is actually the second-shortest price in the field — the betting public likes this one. The TrackWiz rating of 55.85 and an avgSpeed of 53 put Marble Hall squarely in the middle of the pack, but Carlos Eduardo Rojas for the Jorge Delgado barn is a combination that has been sneaky effective in maiden spots at Monmouth. Use Marble Hall as your safety net in trifectas — it's priced too short to ignore.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Today at Monmouth Park is exactly the kind of card worth investing time in — perfect turf conditions, a legitimate stakes race to anchor the afternoon, and enough pace complexity in the claiming ranks to create real value. Resolute, Unsolved Mystery, and Into It headline the free plays, and My Miss Mo looms large in the stakes feature. For pace projections, exotic ticket breakdowns, and the full 8-race rundown, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — race smart.

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