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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

July 19, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 19, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 19, 2026

Race 11Imperial SpyML 6/112:50 PM EDT

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Summer racing doesn't get much better than a clear Sunday at Monmouth Park, and July 19th is setting up to be exactly that. Temperatures holding at a pleasant 77°F with no weather concerns means both the dirt and turf courses should play true — always a good sign for handicappers who like their speed figures to mean something.

We've got an 8-race card on tap, mixing claiming races, maidens, and allowance-level spots across dirt and turf. Three of those races feature turf routes, which is right in Monmouth's wheelhouse this time of year — the Jersey Shore grass has been a reliable surface, and today's conditions should keep it that way.

A few compelling names jump off the card early. Imperial Spy catches the eye in Race 1 at 6/1 morning line, and Just Relax looks like a horse to watch in the Starter Optional Claiming sprint. Let's break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf claimer with a legitimate pace duel brewing and a top TrackWiz rating hiding behind a generous morning line — the value is real if the grass comes up good.

win1Imperial SpyML 6/1

Imperial Spy sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 — a significant edge over the rest of this field — and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line, which looks like a gift. The career win percentage of 5% may give bettors pause, but ratings-based models often capture recent form cycles that raw win percentage doesn't reflect. Luis M. Ocasio gets the call, and at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, there's plenty of real estate for a horse with this kind of underlying rating to find his stride and hit the board.

place2KhetamML 3/1

Khetam is your logical place horse at 3/1 — a career win rate of 11% gives him a legitimate shot in a field where most runners are fighting for consistency. His average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the class, and trainer Michael Dini has the horse ready to fire. Francisco Martinez is a dependable pilot who won't waste ground at this trip.

show7Redemption SpeightML 7/2

Redemption Speight at 7/2 is a sneaky inclusion for exotic players — a 7% career win rate doesn't scream, but the 73.5 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the field and that matters when you're hunting show-slot finishers. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay doubles up in this race with Thingamabob, but it's Redemption Speight who carries the stronger rating. At the turf mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, expect this one to be running late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where first-time starters and lightly raced horses create a tricky puzzle — but the TrackWiz numbers point to a clear top two with a notable gap to the rest of the field.

win1Twin LightsML 2/1

Twin Lights carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this maiden claimer at 88.54, and the 2/1 morning line reflects public respect for a reason. Trainer Eddie Owens Jr. puts Jorge A. Vargas Jr. in the irons — a confident booking — and an average speed figure of 53 is competitive for this level. In maiden claimers, class and underlying talent usually win out, and Twin Lights looks like she has both working in her favor over six furlongs.

place6Hillsborough EightML 4/1

Hillsborough Eight is the clear second choice in the TrackWiz model at 73.34 — a significant gap over the rest of the field — and is one of only two horses here with an average speed figure of 54, tying for the top mark. Trainer Chuck Spina sends Chantal Sutherland to the saddle, which is a confident move in a maiden claimer. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here.

show4Giant GrooveML 6/1

Giant Groove is an interesting show play at 6/1 — no average speed figure on record suggests limited past data, but the TrackWiz rating of 51.67 puts him ahead of several more experienced horses in the field. The Rory K. Huston barn also has It'salljustadream entered, which could split attention, but Giant Groove is the better-rated of the two. Maiden claimers are volatile, and having this one underneath in your exotics at 6/1 makes some sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's plenty to work with. Twin Lights opens up as the morning-line favorite in Race 2's maiden claiming sprint at 2/1 — that TrackWiz rating of 88.54 is the highest of the free picks and suggests a horse that should be respected at any price. In Race 3, Just Relax pops with an 88.83 rating in a 6-furlong Starter Optional Claiming spot on dirt, edging out the field in our model — at 9/5 on the morning line, the value may be thin, but the profile is hard to argue with.

The wild card in the free trio is Race 1's Imperial Spy on the turf mile-and-sixteenth. That 6/1 morning line is worth circling — our rating of 82.71 suggests a legitimate contender that the oddsmakers may be underestimating. On a turf course playing fast under clear skies, pace scenario matters, and we like the position Imperial Spy figures to have late in the race. If you're only playing three races today, these are the ones to start with.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claimer on the dirt where two horses have clearly separated themselves from the pack — this looks like a two-horse race with a pace question determining the order of finish.

win7Just RelaxML 9/5

Just Relax is the class of this field by TrackWiz numbers — an 88.83 rating leads the race, and a 31% career win rate is elite for this level and company. Paco Lopez takes the mount, one of the sharpest riders at Monmouth, and the 9/5 morning line is fair given the credentials. At six furlongs on the dirt with a top-end speed average of 54, Just Relax is primed to go wire-to-wire or press the pace and grind rivals into submission.

place6CanutoML 3/1

Canuto has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.84 and the highest average speed figure of any horse at 56 — that raw speed is worth noting in a six-furlong dirt sprint. A 25% career win rate is excellent, and trainer Pompeyo Gomez has Luis R. Rivera Jr. aboard, a rider who knows this track. If Just Relax gets shuffled or encounters traffic, Canuto has the turn of foot to capitalize.

show2Heart N SoulML 2/1

Heart N Soul at 2/1 is an interesting show bet precisely because the morning line suggests public money will load up on this horse, making show payoffs potentially lean — but the 18% career win rate and trainer Jorge Delgado's familiarity with this circuit keeps her firmly in the mix. Chantal Sutherland takes the reins, and at two-to-one she's well-positioned to land a piece. For exotic players building tickets, she's a solid underneath option.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:26 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This maiden claimer on the turf sprint is a subscribers-only race at Monmouth, and the TrackWiz model sees a tight battle at the top with two horses clearly ahead of the rest of this field.

win2AusplexityML 5/1

Ausplexity leads all comers with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating in this 5½-furlong turf maiden claimer, and the 5/1 morning line screams value against a horse with that kind of edge. An average speed figure of 55 ties for the top in the field, and trainer Teresa M. Pompay puts Melissa Iorio in the irons — a rider who's comfortable on the turf at Monmouth. First-time maiden winners on turf can be unpredictable, but when a horse comes in with this combination of rating and speed, you take the price.

place5Aria DML 2/1

Aria D is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 81.16 TrackWiz rating — just slightly behind Ausplexity — and shares the 55 average speed figure at the top of the field. Paco Lopez, arguably the meet's top rider, takes the mount for trainer Patrick B. McBurney, and that booking commands respect. If the pace gets hot early, Lopez will have Aria D perfectly positioned to hit the board in the final sixteenth.

show7LucianaML 7/2

Luciana rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 57.58 and draws the 7 post at 7/2 on the morning line — that outside draw on a short turf sprint can be tricky, but trainer Patrick B. McBurney also trains Aria D, meaning the barn has two live chances. Jose Antonio Gomez takes the call on Luciana, and with an average speed figure of 53, she should be competitive enough to grab a piece of the purse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:59 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open allowance optional claimer on the dirt where the TrackWiz top pick is fighting off a strong field — Stormy Girl's 100% career win percentage raises eyebrows, but sample size matters, and the model still loves someone else.

win9AllenhurstML 5/2

Allenhurst tops the TrackWiz model at 87.81 and is the second choice on the morning line at 5/2, suggesting the public already has a handle on his talent. An 18% career win rate is solid for this allowance-level company, and trainer Angel Castillo Jr. has Angel Castillo in the irons — a trainer-jockey duo that operates as one unit, which often signals a confident try. With an average speed figure of 53, he has the consistency to grind out a win over six furlongs on the dirt.

place5Cool SpiteML 6/1

Cool Spite at 6/1 is a legitimate value play for the place slot — a 20% career win rate matches the top horses in this field, and his average speed figure of 55 is among the best in the race. Trainer Chuck Spina throws Jomar Torres on board, and with a 69.95 TrackWiz rating that slots in well behind Allenhurst, Cool Spite looks like the horse to beat for second money. Six furlongs on the dirt plays right into his profile.

show8Stormy GirlML 2/1

Stormy Girl is a fascinating show-slot inclusion — a listed 100% career win rate demands attention, though the sample size is almost certainly very small. What matters for exotic players is that the 2/1 morning line indicates heavy public support, and an average speed figure of 55 is legitimately competitive. Trainer Eddie Owens Jr. has Jorge A. Vargas Jr. in the irons, and if she fires her best effort, she'll be in the mix at the wire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

On the turf at five and a half furlongs, the TrackWiz model identifies a value overlay at the top — while the morning-line favorite Summer Bee gets public respect, Curious Soul at 6/1 leads the ratings and looks underpriced.

win2Curious SoulML 6/1

Curious Soul tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 while going postward at 6/1 — a significant overlay when the model this strong on a horse. A 21% career win rate is excellent for a claiming turf sprinter, and the average speed figure of 56 is tied for the best in the race. Trainer Richard Vega puts Dexter Haddock in the irons, and at the 5½-furlong turf distance, a horse with this kind of speed rating should be sitting in a perfect stalking spot.

place8Summer BeeML 2/1

Summer Bee carries the 2/1 morning-line chalk and an 81.97 TrackWiz rating that's essentially a dead heat with the top pick — this is a genuinely close call at the top of the field. Paco Lopez rides for trainer Michael Dini, and an average speed figure of 57 is the highest in the field, meaning Summer Bee has the raw turn of foot to be dangerous. For bettors who like to follow the public, this is your safe place-slot anchor.

show5Gins and TinsML 5/2

Gins and Tins at 5/2 has the third-best TrackWiz rating at 70.62 and the second-best average speed figure in the race at 57 — that raw speed number is hard to ignore in a turf sprint. Trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias has a second entrant in Shakin Loose, but Gins and Tins is clearly the more potent of the two. Jose C. Ferrer takes the mount, and at 5/2 the show payoff may be slim, but for exotic plays this horse slots neatly into the third spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

4:07 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A one-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth dirt allowance optional claimer with a clear TrackWiz top pick — but the pace scenario could get complicated with multiple closers and a longshot show play that's worth a second look.

win7Capitan DannyML 5/2

Capitan Danny leads the TrackWiz model at 87.81 and draws the 7 post at 5/2 on the morning line — a comfortable price for a horse with this rating edge. A 22% career win rate at the allowance level shows he can compete with better, and trainer Victor Barboza Jr. gets Paco Lopez in the irons, which is the meet's most reliable booking. At a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, there's plenty of time for a horse with these credentials to make his move and hold on late.

place3Racing DriverML 7/2

Racing Driver at 7/2 is the second-choice in the TrackWiz model at 64.06 and brings a 22% career win rate — matching Capitan Danny's career mark and suggesting he belongs here. Trainer Gustavo Delgado sends Carlos Eduardo Rojas to ride, and with an average speed figure of 54, Racing Driver should handle this distance and surface without issue. He's the most logical horse to sit just off the pace and grab second money.

show1La FrostML 12/1

La Frost at 12/1 is a compelling show play — a 57.02 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate are eye-catching numbers, and the double-digit price suggests the public isn't connecting those dots. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay has two horses in this race and Melissa Iorio gets the nod on La Frost, which may be the second-string booking, but the rating and the win rate are too good to ignore at that price. For exotic players, La Frost makes an excellent underneath inclusion at a price that could boost trifecta payouts significantly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of ten in a turf mile claimer where the TrackWiz model is emphatic about its top pick, but No Denying's 50% career win rate from the rail will keep things interesting — and the full field sets up a pace scenario that could benefit closers.

win7Bella Bello BankerML 5/2

Bella Bello Banker leads all runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws a manageable post at 5/2 on the morning line — the public likes this one, and so does our model. An 18% career win rate is respectable, and the average speed figure of 54 is right in the zone for a turf-mile claimer. Paco Lopez gets the mount for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, and in a full field of ten on the turf, Lopez's ability to find a pocket and save ground is worth a premium.

place6El Ma'anyML 3/1

El Ma'any at 3/1 is a solid place contender — a 68.93 TrackWiz rating is clearly second-best in the field, and a 20% career win rate shows this horse knows how to compete. Trainer Michael Dini sends Francisco Martinez to ride, a steady combination that clicks on the Monmouth turf. With an average speed figure of 53, El Ma'any has the consistency to hold a placing position through a mile on the grass.

show1No DenyingML 8/1

No Denying at 8/1 is the show-slot play that offers real upside — a 64.83 TrackWiz rating is third in this field, and a 50% career win rate is a number that grabs your attention even if the sample size may be small. Trainer Wayne Potts sends Charlie Marquez from the rail, and a rail draw in a turf mile at Monmouth is rarely a disadvantage when the speed figures are this competitive. At 8/1, there's genuine show-exotic value here that the morning line alone justifies including.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Clear skies, a fast track, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping — that's Monmouth Park on July 19th in a nutshell. Imperial Spy, Twin Lights, and Just Relax headline our free selections, while the premium card surfaces value angles on Curious Soul and a full multi-race ticket strategy for the back half. Don't go in blind — the full breakdown is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and let's find some winners.

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