Daily Picks

Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026

Saturday, July 18, 202614 racesMonmouth Park

It's a big Saturday at the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park is putting up a 14-race card on July 18, 2026, and with cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F keeping conditions firm underfoot, we're set up for a full day of quality racing from first post to nightcap.

Six stakes races are sprinkled throughout the afternoon — that's a marquee slate by anyone's measure — spread across both dirt and turf. The turf course figures to be playing fast given the mild weather, while the main track should be consistent throughout the card. Plenty of angles to attack today.

Our TrackWiz ratings span a wide range across the field, from elite-level scores nudging the high 80s to a couple of spots where value hunters will want to look twice. There's something for every type of bettor today, whether you're a pick-4 grinder or just here for the stakes action.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf at 1 1/16 miles where TrackWiz's ratings reveal a clear separation at the top — but the morning line tells a very different story, setting up some intriguing price plays.

win4Navesink PirateML 9/2

Navesink Pirate draws the fourth post and tops the TrackWiz ratings by a healthy margin at 84.9 — a full 15 points clear of the morning-line favorite Tail Risk. Christian Maragh gets the call for trainer Eddie Owens, Jr., and the distance of 1 1/16 miles on turf should suit a horse with this kind of rating profile. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value if he runs to his number in what shapes up as a muddled field of first-time or lightly raced maidens.

place1Tail RiskML 9/5

Tail Risk opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite under Paco Lopez — one of the sharpest turf riders in the Mid-Atlantic — for trainer Lindsay Schultz. His TrackWiz rating of 69.81 ranks second in the field, and while the favorite in a maiden race always carries risk, Lopez's presence means this horse will be positioned correctly throughout. Good candidate to hit the board even if Navesink Pirate gets loose on the front end.

show3Funky See Funky DoML 4/1

Funky See Funky Do sits at 4/1 on the morning line and carries a TrackWiz rating of 61.97, the third-highest in the race, with an average speed figure of 55 that's the best in the field. Trainer Chad Summers sends this one out with legitimate expectations, and the horse profiles as a natural contender to pick up a piece at a fair price in a race where the top two choices are not certainties.

Race 2

4:27 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Star power in the jockey ranks makes this allowance optional claimer on dirt a compelling watch — a couple of heavy hitters at the top of the market, but TrackWiz's top-rated runner is the one that's being somewhat overlooked.

win9Admiral MoML 7/2

Admiral Mo is the TrackWiz top selection with a field-best rating of 86.35 and an average speed figure of 55 that leads all nine runners. His 50% career win rate is eye-catching in this spot, and Paco Lopez, one of Monmouth's most reliable hands, picks up the mount. Priced at 7/2 on the morning line, Admiral Mo represents a rare combination of elite rating, winning form, and a jockey who knows how to navigate the Monmouth dirt.

place8ProfoundML 3/1

Profound draws post eight and gets Luis Saez in the irons for trainer Harold Wyner — a solid partnership at this level. A TrackWiz rating of 74.11 and a 22% career win rate suggest a horse with genuine class, and at 3/1 on the morning line he'll attract plenty of play. His profile fits a stalker who can exploit any pace meltdown up front in what looks like a contentious early flow.

show1TestedML 12/1

Tested opened at 12/1 on the morning line, which looks generous for a horse sitting third in TrackWiz ratings at 67.64 with an 18% career win percentage. Trainer Philip T. Aristone is a capable condition-race conditioner, and Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. has the local knowledge to find a path at Monmouth. At double-digit odds, Tested is a prime show-bet hedge and an interesting inclusion in exacta/trifecta exotics underneath the top two.

Race 3

4:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full twelve-horse field goes a mile on the turf in a claiming race that features a sharp divide between the morning-line chalk and TrackWiz's highest-rated runner — the kind of misalignment that makes for interesting wagering.

win10JurisprudenceML 8/1

Jurisprudence opens at 8/1 on the morning line despite owning the field's top TrackWiz rating at 79.79 and a 27% career win rate. Tyler Gaffalione, one of the country's elite jockeys, takes the call for trainer Kelly J. Breen — a trainer-jockey combo that consistently shows up ready at this level. There's legitimate overlay value here: getting the TrackWiz top horse at better than morning-line money on a turf course that rewards tactical riders.

place1Bar FourteenML 3/1

Bar Fourteen is the morning-line co-favorite at 3/1 and rates second overall at 74.81 for trainer Timothy A. Hills and rider Jose Antonio Gomez. A 10% career win rate looks modest, but in a claiming turf mile with this much pace pressure anticipated, a horse that can save ground along the rail and finish powerfully is exactly the type to fill out the exacta. He's the kind of professional that finds his way to the board.

show9TocayoML 5/2

Tocayo hits the gate at 5/2 — the single shortest price in the field — with a 73.9 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 55. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, and the pace scenario here could see Tocayo sitting just off contested fractions and launching a sustained middle move. He's a credible show play even if the top end of the market beats him to the wire.

We're giving away three free best bets today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and there's a common thread worth noting: all three go long (a mile or more) on surfaces that should favor horses with a clean trip and a strong late kick. On a cloudy day with no rain in the recent forecast, the turf in Races 1 and 3 should be consistent from rail to four-path, which takes some of the variance out of your pick.

Navesink Pirate at 9/2 in the opening maiden claimer on the turf is our first play of the afternoon — a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 stands out in what projects to be a soft maiden field. In Race 2, Admiral Mo (7/2 morning line, 86.35 rating) tops our dirt allowance optional claiming analysis and looks like a solid foundation for early multi-race tickets. Then in Race 3, Jurisprudence rolls in at 8/1 on the turf claiming — that price against that rating is exactly the kind of overlay we love to flag. Don't overlook him.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:22 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

This stakes at 1 1/8 miles on dirt is a small but loaded six-horse field where three runners are bunched inside 9/5 and 5/2 on the morning line — a legitimate three-way battle at the top with little margin for error.

win5SkippylongstockingML 3/2

Skippylongstocking leads our TrackWiz ratings at 88.05 and lands at 3/2 on the morning line with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — a barn that knows how to have horses ready for stakes days. A 36% career win rate in stakes company is respectable, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps him competitive. The slight edge over stablemate Alexander Helios in the ratings suggests this is the barn's main string.

place1Money GameML 5/2

Money Game is a compelling place pick at 5/2, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — barely a whisker behind the top pick — and a remarkable 100% career win rate, albeit in a limited sample. Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Brad H. Cox is one of the most formidable trainer-jockey partnerships in the sport, and a horse that has never lost going 1 1/8 miles on dirt deserves serious respect as a run-back. He won't be far off Skippylongstocking if they hook up on the turn.

show4KnightsbridgeML 7/5

Knightsbridge is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and rates third in our model at 77.25, but Flavien Prat and William I. Mott form the kind of stable-state combination that keeps a horse competitive even when slightly overmatched. A 60% career win rate is elite, and the extra furlong at 1 1/8 miles should play to his strengths as a horse who appears to relish the added ground. He's a near-lock to hit the board and anchors the bottom of any trifecta.

Race 5

5:52 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A ten-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf mile is dominated by one clear TrackWiz standout — but there's a compelling secondary play at a fair price if the favorite gets into trouble early.

win5Midway MemoriesML 5/2

Midway Memories is the class of this field on TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the top mark in the race and tied for one of the highest figures on the entire card — while posting an average speed figure of 55 that no one else in this field can match. Flavien Prat, aboard for Chad C. Brown's outfit, is riding at an elite level, and Brown's grass operations at this distance are a known quantity. At 5/2, this is the type of horse you want to key in your exotic bets.

place10Mid SummerML 4/1

Mid Summer draws the outside post ten but gets Paco Lopez for Claude R. McGaughey III — a Hall of Fame trainer who doesn't send horses to Monmouth unless they're genuinely ready. His TrackWiz rating of 68.92 and 25% career win rate represent real credentials in this spot, and at 4/1 he's the most logical pace challenger to Midway Memories. If Brown's filly hits any traffic, Mid Summer is right there to pounce.

show3Maximo MadnessML 6/1

Maximo Madness sits at 6/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 59.51 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. A 15% career win rate and average speed figure of 53 make him honest competition in the bottom third of this field, and Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. is a capable handler who can find spots on the turn. At the price, he's worth including as a show ticket if the pace scenario gets chaotic and the field bunches.

Race 6

6:24 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

One horse stands significantly above the rest in this stakes sprint on dirt — the question isn't who wins, it's whether the morning-line chalks finish in the right order or if something sneaks in at value.

win7SplendoraML 3/2

Splendora tops the TrackWiz model at 89.27 and brings a 57% career win rate to a stakes field that, frankly, looks beatable for a horse of her profile. Flavien Prat gets the mount for Bob Baffert, and Baffert-trained runners with big ratings going postward at 3/2 have a way of living up to billing. The average speed figure of 55 matches Knightsbridge's from Race 4 but is highest in this particular field — a clear benchmark.

place6Alpine PrincessML 7/2

Alpine Princess rates second in the field at 79.47 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the reins for Brad H. Cox — another powerhouse barn that doesn't lose interest just because a more heavily favored runner is in the race. A 35% career win rate is solid at stakes level, and at 7/2 on the morning line she represents value as the most likely horse to run Splendora down if anything goes sideways. Ortiz won't let her get too far off the pace.

show2Lost HorizonML 4/1

Lost Horizon comes in at 4/1 on the morning line for Chad C. Brown and Tyler Gaffalione, carrying a 50% career win rate that demands attention in any stakes field. At 71.33 on the TrackWiz scale, she rates third overall and has the tactical versatility that Brown horses tend to exhibit — she can sit mid-pack and finish through the field. A quality show play and an interesting exotic inclusion if the top two are short-priced in the pools.

Race 7

6:56 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A stakes turf field at 1 1/8 miles where two scratches thin out the competition, leaving a clearly-rated top trio that TrackWiz separates by meaningful margins — but the pace dynamics on a shorter turf field could compress the finish.

win1Sweet TreasureML 2/1

Sweet Treasure enters as the TrackWiz top pick at 88.54 with a 55% career win rate that stands out even in graded company. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is aboard for Brad H. Cox — a 2/1 morning-line favorite with every right to be on top — and the average speed figure of 55 is the best in the active field. This is a horse that consistently delivers at the top of the market, and at this price, she may be a must-play for straight win tickets.

place3City GirlML 5/2

City Girl rates 79.35 on TrackWiz with a 50% career win rate, which is elite for any horse at this level. Flavien Prat takes over for Chad C. Brown, and with two horses in this race representing the Brown barn, City Girl profiles as the tactical type who can stalk Sweet Treasure and make a run turning for home. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's a reasonable place bet in her own right.

show2GrayoshML 4/1

Grayosh opens at 4/1 for Chad C. Brown and Tyler Gaffalione with a 21% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 59.47 — third-best in the active field. A 1 1/8-mile turf trip suits horses who can carry momentum into the far turn, and Brown's stable depth means Grayosh likely has fitness working in his favor. He's a strong show bet and a key piece in any trifecta that includes the top two.

Race 8

7:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep twelve-horse allowance optional claimer at six furlongs on dirt that features a well-defined top three in the TrackWiz model — but the clear standout from a pure number perspective comes at odds that make him feel almost too obvious.

win11SuperfractorML 2/1

Superfractor carries the field's best TrackWiz rating at 88.19 with a 50% career win rate and tops all runners with an average speed figure of 55. Paco Lopez rides for Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr., and the 2/1 morning-line tab suggests the market agrees this is a dominant figure in a six-furlong dirt spot. Speed figures (raw pace numbers) like these in a sprint tend to translate quickly — if Superfractor breaks clean, this race could be over by the quarter pole.

place8St. ErlingML 6/1

St. Erling is a fascinating profile at 6/1 on the morning line — a horse with the field's highest average speed figure at 56 and a TrackWiz rating of 81.63. Chantal Sutherland takes the mount for trainer Joan Milne, and while a 0% career win rate sounds alarming, it suggests a horse that may be due — and that blazing 56 speed figure implies the raw ability is there. This is a horse that could make life uncomfortable for Superfractor if there's any hesitation at the break.

show6GaelicheartofgoldML 8/1

Gaelicheartofgold opens at 8/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 and the field's best career win rate among the non-morning-line leaders at 42%. Tyler Gaffalione and Wayne Potts are a sharp combination in short-field allowance sprints, and a horse that wins nearly half his starts can't be dismissed even in a race where two rivals carry higher raw ratings. He's the most reliable exotic anchor in the back half of a trifecta.

Race 9

8:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Scratches thin this turf stakes sprint to eight runners, but the top of the field is genuinely strong — a pace-heavy group with multiple horses showing elevated average speed figures that should produce a fast, contested early tempo.

win1Souper QuestML 4/1

Souper Quest leads the TrackWiz model at 85.62 with a 30% career win rate — solid in stakes company — and the field's best average speed figure at 59 alongside Alogon. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for Mark E. Casse, who is a master at preparing horses for short-field turf stakes. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse where the TrackWiz number and the odds are slightly misaligned in the bettor's favor — that's the kind of spot you want to play.

place5AlogonML 5/2

Alogon shares the field's top average speed figure at 59 and rates second overall at 78.58 for Edward T. Allard and Flavien Prat. A 28% career win rate gives him legitimate stakes credentials, and at 5/2 he'll be the dominant public choice — perhaps even shorter by post time with Prat's book. If Souper Quest gets early pressure, Alogon is equipped to sit just behind and pounce in the final furlong.

show6Nothing BetterML 3/1

Nothing Better hits the gate at 3/1 for Jorge Duarte, Jr. with Paco Lopez aboard, carrying a 35% career win rate and an average speed figure of 57 — third-best among active runners. Lopez is an expert at rating horses in turf sprints, and Nothing Better's win percentage suggests he belongs at the top of any sprint field. He's a dependable show play and the right bet if you think the top two put each other away and leave him to clean up.

Race 10

8:37 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

One of the most intriguing wagering opportunities on the card — TrackWiz's top-rated runner in this six-furlong dirt stakes is going off at 15/1, while the 2/1 morning-line favorite sits several rungs lower in our model.

win11Unsolved MysteryML 15/1

Unsolved Mystery is our TrackWiz top selection at 69.58 with a 37% career win rate, but what makes this a genuine value play is the 15/1 morning-line price — the highest of any TrackWiz top pick on today's entire card. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. rides for trainer Luis Rivera, Jr., and in a sprint field where the average speed figures are remarkably uniform at 55, Unsolved Mystery's career form suggests a horse that runs his races consistently and lands at the right price today.

place9KilwinML 2/1

Kilwin opens at 2/1 and projects as the public's choice with a 50% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the field. Edgar Morales gets the mount for George R. Arnold II, and in a sprint where pace figures are compressed, the horse with the top raw speed number is never a bad ticket. He's a logical place anchor even if our model prefers Unsolved Mystery at the top.

show4Ms. BuccheroML 4/1

Ms. Bucchero rates third in the TrackWiz model at 63.12 with a 47% career win rate for Mark E. Casse, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call. Ortiz's presence alone makes any horse a factor in a six-furlong sprint, and a 47% win rate in a field where most runners are in the 20-37% range is a significant edge. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's worth including in any trifecta ticket at the bottom.

Race 11

9:09 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

The marathon turf stakes at 1 3/8 miles sees a tight contest between three legitimate top-end runners, with the betting market slightly at odds with how TrackWiz separates the field — creating a small but real overlay at the top.

win7Just a TouchML 8/5

Just a Touch leads all runners in TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 — the highest figure in any stakes race on today's card — and Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for Brad H. Cox. At 8/5 on the morning line, the market has him as a solid favorite, but a 38% career win rate in a turf route at this distance suggests a horse that can handle the extra ground and still kick. Cox-Ortiz at 1 3/8 miles on turf is a combination that doesn't need much encouraging.

place4Program TradingML 2/1

Program Trading rates 84.1 in our model and draws in under Flavien Prat for Chad C. Brown at 2/1 on the morning line. A 42% career win rate is exceptional for any route runner, and Brown has built an empire on staying turf horses that are fit, fresh, and ready to run a mile and three-eighths. He's the most likely horse to pressure Just a Touch throughout and push the pace into the far turn.

show6Uncle's GoldML 9/2

Uncle's Gold draws post six at 9/2 with a career win rate of 55% — the highest of any horse in this race — and Paco Lopez gets the mount for Michael J. Trombetta. A TrackWiz rating of 81.56 puts him third overall, and a horse that wins more than half his starts over a career can't be left out of trifecta construction at 1 3/8 miles. He's a deeper closer who benefits if the top two go at each other early.

Race 12

9:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse stakes at 1 1/8 miles on dirt where the TrackWiz model shows a decisive top runner but a competitive cluster of three horses just below — the place and show spots are nearly inseparable on paper.

win2Further AdoML 2/1

Further Ado draws post two under Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Brad H. Cox and carries the field's best TrackWiz rating at 88.54 alongside a 50% career win rate. At 2/1 on the morning line, there's not enormous value, but Cox-Ortiz at 1 1/8 miles on dirt is a combination you respect unconditionally — they tend to have these horses wound tight for stakes trips. The rating gap between Further Ado and the next horse in our model is meaningful enough to justify the short price.

place5Iron HonorML 3/1

Iron Honor sits at 3/1 for Chad C. Brown and Flavien Prat with a 50% career win rate that matches the win pick's résumé. A TrackWiz rating of 74.45 places him second in the field, and Brown's horses at 1 1/8 miles on dirt have a history of finding the board even when outgunned. He's the most natural place bet on the race — the kind of horse that tracks the pace, hits the top of the stretch, and doesn't quit.

show4The PumaML 7/2

The Puma opens at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 73.33 and a 25% career win rate for trainer Gustavo Delgado, with Luis Saez in the irons. Saez is elite at any level, and a horse with a 7/2 price that rates third in the model is exactly the type to consider for show tickets and trifecta exotics. At 1 1/8 miles on dirt, The Puma's profile suggests a horse who can rally into a compact finish if the top two battle it out.

Race 13

10:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The late-night turf allowance optional claimer at a mile features a sharp disconnect between the TrackWiz leader and where the morning-line has him pegged — making this one of the card's better value opportunities for the patient horseplayer.

win1TropandhagenML 8/1

Tropandhagen tops the TrackWiz field at 79.79 but is priced at 8/1 on the morning line — a full four lengths of odds away from the morning-line favorite Copper Ghost at 2/1. Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount for Panagiotis A. Synnefias, and the horse's average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race. A 13% career win rate looks conservative, but the raw TrackWiz number says this runner is the best horse in the field and is being sent off at nearly quadruple the fair price.

place7Double NeatML 3/1

Double Neat draws post seven under Luis Saez for Jose A. Gallegos at 3/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 69.78 — second-best in the race. A 15% career win rate in route turf races is honest, and Saez has a knack for getting the most out of horses in allowance conditions at shorter distance points. He's a credible place selection who profiles as the most likely horse to challenge Tropandhagen in the final furlong.

show2Copper GhostML 2/1

Copper Ghost opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 under Paco Lopez for Michael J. Trombetta, but his TrackWiz rating of 68.93 ranks third in the field — below both the win and place picks. That market-vs-model gap makes him a show play rather than a win investment today: the public's price on him will likely be too short to bet into, but he's capable enough to hit the board if the top two beat each other. Include him underneath in exactas and trifectas at longer payoffs.

Race 14

10:46 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closer on the card is a six-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer where the TrackWiz model shows a massive separation between the top pick and the rest — a potential standout situation despite a competitive-looking morning line.

win5Guapo AgainML 3/1

Guapo Again leads the field by a considerable margin in our TrackWiz model at 87.08 — nearly 13 points ahead of the next-highest rated horse — and Paco Lopez gets the assignment for Kelly J. Breen, one of Monmouth's most reliable conditioners. A 25% career win rate is respectable in this classification, and Lopez closing out the card on a Breen horse with the top number is a spot to take seriously. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for what the model is projecting.

place1Complex MusicML 9/2

Complex Music rates second in TrackWiz at 74.67 with a 13% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 — matching the field's top average. Jose C. Ferrer rides for Panagiotis A. Synnefias, a trainer who is active throughout the card today and knows how to place horses competitively in sprint allowance spots. At 9/2 on the morning line, he's a value play in the exacta underneath Guapo Again.

show6Charlie Mac MacML 12/1

Charlie Mac Mac opens at 12/1 on the morning line — the longest price among our picks — but carries a 30% career win rate that no one else in the field outside of the top two can match. Trainer Tony Wilson keeps a light but effective book, and Noel Herman can find position in a sprint without using up the horse early. At the price, Charlie Mac Mac is a live show ticket and a must-use in trifectas where the payoffs could be rewarding if Guapo Again and Complex Music fill the top two spots.

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Bottom line: Monmouth is serving up a legitimate big-day card with six stakes, solid turf conditions, and some real value scattered across the board — Jurisprudence at 8/1 in Race 3 and Unsolved Mystery at 15/1 in Race 10 are two names to keep in mind if you like a live longshot. Free picks cover the first three races to get you started. For pace scenarios, exotic ticket breakdowns, and the full 14-race analysis, subscribe to TrackWiz and have everything you need before the first horse hits the gate.

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