Daily Picks

Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

Friday, July 17, 20268 racesMonmouth Park

Happy Friday from the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park is putting up an 8-race card today under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 82°F. Conditions look close to ideal — no rain in the picture, which means the turf courses should be firm and true, a big deal when you've got four races scheduled on the grass today.

The headliner is the Race 7 Stakes at 6 furlongs on dirt, where Book'em Danno comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite at 3/5. But there's plenty of action across the full card, from a pair of 5-furlong maiden sprints early on to a mile-plus turf marathon in Race 6. Casual players and serious multi-race bettors alike should find something to dig into here.

Three races are fully free to preview below. For the complete 8-race breakdown — pace scenarios, exotic angles, and our best multi-race plays — that's where the premium analysis comes in.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where zero horses have broken their maiden, and several lack any recorded speed figures — expect early chaos and a potential upset.

win7Love YourzML 5/2

Love Yourz draws the services of Paco Lopez, one of the sharpest jockeys in the Monmouth colony, and that booking alone speaks volumes in a field this green. Our TrackWiz rating of 57.5 tops the field, and trainer Miguel Clement has shown an eye for placing first-time starters in spots they can win. At 5/2 on the morning line, the market already respects this one, but the combination of elite pilot and top rating makes her the most logical win play in the race.

place5Legacy LadyML 3/1

Legacy Lady (5) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67, tied for second-best in the field, and she's posted an avg speed figure of 53 — a meaningful data point when several rivals show a zero. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends her out at a reasonable 3/1 morning line, and a mild pace scenario on the turf at 5 furlongs could suit a horse with some early numbers behind her.

show8Philly RuckusML 3/1

Philly Ruckus (8) matches Legacy Lady's 56.67 TrackWiz rating and actually leads all horses in the field with an avg speed of 55. Trainer Tony Wilson keeps the connections simple, and at 3/1 she offers solid exotic value as a third wheel in exactas and trifectas — don't leave her out of your multi-horse tickets.

Race 2

6:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

La Vecchia Signora enters as a heavy class standout in this one-mile dirt claimer, carrying a TrackWiz rating more than 18 points clear of the next rival — the question is whether the price will be worth playing.

win4La Vecchia SignoraML 9/5

La Vecchia Signora (4) is the most dominant number in this field by a wide margin — her TrackWiz rating of 88.83 dwarfs everyone else's, and her 33% career win rate is the best in the race. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who also saddles the third pick here, suggesting the barn likes this runner better. At 9/5 on the morning line she'll likely go off even shorter, but the numbers justify the short price.

place6FlogeML 5/1

Floge (6) is quietly interesting at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 70.61 and a 21% career win rate under trainer Antonio Arriaga. Francisco Martinez has been active at Monmouth, and Floge's avg speed of 53 keeps pace with most of this field — if La Vecchia Signora runs into any trouble, Floge is positioned to grab second money.

show3Charlie's BeautyML 5/2

Charlie's Beauty (3) puts up a 30% career win rate — second-best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 69.32 that places her firmly in the conversation for exacta and trifecta slots. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila running two horses here is worth noting; sometimes the second entry draws sharp-money support. At 5/2 she's not a big price, but she's a legitimate show contender.

Race 3

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

This maiden dirt sprint features a clear standout on speed and ratings, but with a full field of first-time or lightly-raced runners, anything can happen when the gate opens at 5 furlongs.

win3Even UpML 2/1

Even Up (3) is our top-rated horse in the race at 58.33 and has already posted an avg speed figure of 55 — the only runner in the field with a meaningful number on the board. Jockey Jorge A. Vargas Jr. knows this strip well, and at 2/1 on the morning line the public clearly agrees. The combination of actual speed data in a field full of unknowns makes Even Up the most defensible win play on the card tonight.

place1RakuML 5/2

Raku (1) is right behind with a TrackWiz rating of 57.5 and draws Hall-of-Fame-caliber support from Paco Lopez for conditioner Kelly J. Breen — a barn that wins with first-time starters on a regular basis. The 5/2 morning line suggests market respect, and the inside post on a short sprint isn't the worst place to break from if the horse is quick out of the gate.

show5Six StitchesML 3/1

Six Stitches (5) rounds out the top three on our ratings sheet at 56.67, trained by Juan Carlos Avila who already showed his hand in Race 2 today. At 3/1 with Jose C. Ferrer up, this horse offers genuine show value and deserves a spot in your trifecta bottom.

Our three free best-bet races cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf sprint with Love Yourz drawing our top rating at 5/2 on the morning line — a reasonable price if she shows any tactical speed on a surface that should reward horses who can find a forward position early. Race 2 shifts to dirt and a mile distance, where La Vecchia Signora posts our highest free-race rating on the card at 88.83 — that's a number that demands respect in a claiming field. Race 3 brings us back to the 5-furlong dirt sprint and Even Up at 2/1, the morning-line favorite and our top pick in a maiden field that figures to sort itself out quickly on a fast surface.

The common thread in these three races? Surface conditions are playing right into the hands of horses with proven speed figures. On a firm turf and a quick dirt strip, pace will be a premium — horses that can save ground and fire late, or simply put rivals away before the turn, will have an edge. Keep an eye on how the first couple of dirt races play out; if the rail is holding up, that's a useful tell for the rest of the afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Eleven runners go to post in this maiden claiming turf route, but two horses — Hop to It and Maxpower — stand dramatically above the rest on TrackWiz ratings, turning this into a two-horse battle with a big field underneath.

win11Hop to ItML 3/1

Hop to It (11) leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 in a field where most horses are hovering in the 40s and 50s. Trainer Tim Woolley sends her out with Paco Lopez in the irons, giving her the same jockey advantage we've seen pay off all day. Her avg speed of 54 on turf is competitive, and at 3/1 on the morning line she's actually the slightly better price between her and Maxpower — the value is here.

place8MaxpowerML 4/1

Maxpower (8) checks in just behind at 82.71 on our ratings and has posted an avg speed of 53 across his starts. Trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias runs Maxpower at 4/1 on the morning line, which could represent real value if he fires his best effort. The two-point gap between Hop to It and Maxpower is close enough that the race shape could easily flip the finish order.

show2EnchantML 2/1

Enchant (2) is listed at 2/1 as the morning-line favorite, but our analysis puts her third in the ratings at 67.96 — nearly 20 points below Hop to It. That gap is significant. She's still a viable show contender given her public support, and Paco Lopez has a second mount here, meaning the stable connections must feel comfortable with her chances in this spot.

Race 5

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the pack in this one-mile-plus dirt claimer, with Mambrino and Hedge carrying significantly higher ratings than the rest of the field — the pace scenario between those two will likely decide the outcome.

win4MambrinoML 7/2

Mambrino (4) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and a career win percentage of 20% — the best mark in the race. Luis R. Rivera Jr. gets the call for trainer Juan G. Bernardini, and Mambrino's avg speed of 54 is one of the better figures in this field. At 7/2, there's legitimate value on a horse whose numbers suggest he should be the favorite.

place1HedgeML 5/2

Hedge (1) is the morning-line choice at 5/2 and posts a solid 71.74 TrackWiz rating with a 14% career win rate and a field-best avg speed of 55. Paco Lopez is aboard for trainer David Jacobson, a combination that rarely goes unnoticed. Hedge sets up as the natural pace rival to Mambrino, and if she can control the tempo on the front end, she'll be tough to run down.

show2Bean MachineML 5/1

Bean Machine (2) is a step below the top two at 54.43 on our ratings, but the 8% career win rate and avg speed of 52 are enough to keep him in the exotic picture. Trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias runs another live-looking horse in this race, and at 5/1, Bean Machine offers show value if the top two split the spoils.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Olatz stands out as a big-number standout in this maiden turf route, with a rating nearly 25 points clear of the second-highest horse — but the Chad Brown barn sends two runners that will complicate the pace and the betting.

win6OlatzML 3/1

Olatz (6) is simply the class of this field on our numbers — a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 in a race where the next-best horse is at 62.56. Trainer Lindsay Schultz lands Paco Lopez, the hottest rider at Monmouth, for what looks like a first-off-the-bench effort set up for a big debut. At 3/1, the morning line is honest, and the raw rating gap here is one of the largest advantages we've seen all day.

place9AcademiaML 2/1

Academia (9) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 out of the Chad C. Brown barn — a trainer whose maiden turf horses are perennial threats no matter the track. Luis R. Rivera Jr. rides, and the 62.56 TrackWiz rating is legitimate competition for Olatz. TrackWiz analysis has Olatz on top, but Academia's connections make her impossible to leave off your tickets.

show8Asset LightML 4/1

Asset Light (8) is the second Chad Brown runner in the race at 4/1, also posting a 54 avg speed figure — the same as stablemate Academia. Brown running two horses means the barn has confidence in both, and when a top trainer doubles up in a maiden turf route, you want at least one of them in your show spot.

Race 7

9:21 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Book'em Danno looms as a heavy favorite in this dirt stakes at 3/5, boasting the top rating, best career win percentage, and the leading jockey — the real handicapping challenge here is finding who can grab second and third money.

win3Book'em DannoML 3/5

Book'em Danno (3) is close to a mortal lock on paper — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 64% career win percentage (best in the field), and an avg speed of 56. Paco Lopez climbs aboard for trainer Derek S. Ryan, and the 3/5 morning line reflects exactly what the numbers say. At that price you're essentially collecting on a highly probable outcome, so the play is to use him as a key in exotics rather than on the win alone.

place2Quint's BrewML 5/1

Quint's Brew (2) is the most credible threat in the field with a 69.38 TrackWiz rating and a 57% career win rate — matching Silver Slugger for the second-highest win percentage in the race. Forest Boyce takes the mount for trainer Edward T. Allard at a reasonable 5/1, and if Book'em Danno has any trouble, Quint's Brew is the horse best positioned to steal second.

show9Full Moon MadnessML 8/1

Full Moon Madness (9) has a 60.51 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate that's workable for a stakes field, and Reylu Gutierrez is a capable hand at Monmouth at 8/1. She's the sneaky show play in a race dominated by one horse — use her underneath Book'em Danno in trifectas to get some return on your ticket.

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open five-furlong turf claiming sprint with multiple legitimate contenders, a 66% career-winning horse lurking at 6/1, and a top-rated closer — the pace figures to be honest and the finish could be tight.

win1Identity CrisisML 7/2

Identity Crisis (1) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 with a 25% career win rate, and Paco Lopez takes the mount for Kelly J. Breen — one of the better barns running at Monmouth this meet. An avg speed of 55 on turf is competitive in this field, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse whose numbers clearly lead the race. This is a confident top pick.

place9Lucky TwistML 4/1

Lucky Twist (9) sits second in our ratings at 78.79 with a 22% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 — slightly better than Identity Crisis on pure pace figures. Francisco Martinez rides for Michael Dini, and at 4/1 there's genuine each-way value here. If the pace scenario sets up for a horse to run them down late, Lucky Twist is your most likely beneficiary.

show7Here Comes LeoML 6/1

Here Comes Leo (7) is the eye-catcher of the card — a 66% career win rate is staggering for a claimer and suggests this horse fires consistently when ready. His avg speed of 57 actually leads all horses in the race on raw figures. At 6/1 for trainer Victor Barboza Jr. with Angel Morales up, he's a live show threat and arguably a value play to win if the form is current.

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Bottom line for today at Monmouth: La Vecchia Signora is the free-card standout at 88.83, Love Yourz and Even Up round out the early plays, and Book'em Danno is the name everyone will be watching in Race 7. It's a well-constructed Friday card with good weather and surface conditions to match. Subscribers get the full edge — five additional races, exotic ticket structures, and pace breakdowns ready to go. See you at the windows.

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