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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

July 12, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 12, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 12, 2026

Race 17JustintimeformusicML 3/112:50 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Sunday at the Jersey Shore — clear skies, 80 degrees, and the turf courses at Monmouth Park should be running at their best. Eight races are on the board today, split between dirt and grass, giving bettors plenty of angles to work with from the first post all the way through.

The card has a little bit of everything: maiden sprints on the turf to kick things off, a couple of starter allowances that tend to draw competitive fields, and the centerpiece of the afternoon — a one-mile turf stakes where There Are No Words comes in at 8/5 on the morning line and has our handicappers' attention. We'll get to all of it.

Three races are fully open for everyone today, and our TrackWiz ratings have surfaced some legitimate value across the card — including a 6/1 morning line shot in Race 3 that grades out stronger than her odds suggest. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden sprint on the turf with a full field of first-timers — TrackWiz ratings are bunched tightly in the 51-57 range, meaning workout patterns and trainer angles will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

win7JustintimeformusicML 3/1

Justintimeformusic draws the morning line favoritism at 3/1 for a reason, and our TrackWiz rating of 56.67 tops the field. Trainer Jose H. Delgado sends this one out with the kind of pre-race buzz that suggests confidence, and Charlie Marquez gets the call in the irons. In a field of all first-timers where raw ability projections are everything, Justintimeformusic edges out the competition on our composite score — a meaningful edge when the margins are this thin.

place5Bettabe ToughML 4/1

Bettabe Tough (4/1) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 55.0 under trainer Kathleen O'Connell, who has a reputation for having first-timers ready to fire. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the mount, a capable hand who knows how to position a turf debutant in a short 5-furlong sprint. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's legit place value here if the top pick falters.

show4The Wrath of DavidML 9/2

The Wrath of David sits at 9/2 on the morning line with a rating of 54.17, tied with stablemate It's Prime Time but drawing the inside post advantage at the 4-hole. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi has two horses in this spot, which is always worth noting — when a barn doubles up in a maiden, they believe they have live runners. Andrew Wolfsont takes the mount and the post draw could set up a ground-saving trip.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ball of Fire stands apart in this 6-furlong dirt claimer with a TrackWiz rating nearly 13 points clear of the next rival — when the numbers separate a horse this decisively in a claiming field, you take notice.

win2Ball of FireML 4/1

Ball of Fire posts a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, easily the class of this field, and backs it up with a 33% career win rate — the best in the race. Trainer Michael V. Simone puts Cipriano Gil in the irons, and this horse has shown consistent average speed figures of 53. The rating gap over the next closest rival (My Man Money at 72.91) is significant in a 6-horse claiming field, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the price is workable for win plays.

place5My Man MoneyML 7/2

My Man Money brings a 20% career win rate into this spot, which is respectable for claiming company, and a TrackWiz rating of 72.91 makes her a legitimate threat to land on the board. Chantal Sutherland is a savvy pilot who excels at finding the right position in pace-dependent dirt sprints. At 7/2, My Man Money could easily outrun her morning line if the pace sets up for a closer.

show6Bonsai WarriorML 3/1

Bonsai Warrior's TrackWiz rating of 64.84 and 14% career win rate make him a reliable show contender in a field where the top two are clearly separated from the pack. Trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias places Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, a jockey comfortable stalking the pace and grinding to the wire in dirt sprints. At 3/1, Bonsai Warrior offers show-ticket value in what looks like a three-horse race at the top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The free portion of today's card kicks off with a pair of turf maiden sprints and a six-furlong dirt claimer sandwiched in between. Justintimeformusic opens the day in Race 1 at 3/1 on a five-furlong turf sprint — a distance that rewards speed and clean breaks, so watch the gate closely. In the middle, Ball of Fire stands out in Race 2 with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, the highest of the three free races, which tells you this horse grades as the most resolute play of the group on a dirt surface that should be fast and true today.

Don't sleep on Honor the Numbers in Race 3 — posted at 6/1 but carrying a 60.04 TrackWiz rating that outpaces where the morning line puts her. On a clear day with the turf playing well, pace scenarios on a 5½-furlong grass sprint can shift quickly, and that's exactly where overlays tend to emerge. These three races offer solid foundational plays before the card really heats up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This maiden turf sprint is loaded with first-timers and lightly raced types, but Honor the Numbers stands out as a live overlay at 6/1 — the TrackWiz numbers say the morning line is underselling the top choice while the crowd may overbet the flashy morning-line favorite.

win8Honor the NumbersML 6/1

Honor the Numbers sits at 6/1 on the morning line but carries our top TrackWiz rating of 60.04 — that's a notable disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends Jose C. Ferrer aboard, and this runner shows an average speed figure of 53 with the upside projection that bumps the composite score to the top of the field. In a 5.5-furlong turf maiden with a lot of unknowns, the combination of rating edge and morning-line value makes this our top play.

place4Prima DonnaML 5/2

Prima Donna is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, and trainer Michael Stidham — a nationally respected conditioner — doesn't ship horses to Monmouth without a legitimate chance. The TrackWiz rating of 57.5 is second in the field, and Chantal Sutherland is exactly the jockey you want for a turf debut at this distance. The concern is simply the short price — as a place play, 5/2 still gets the job done in exotics.

show3MoonblazeML 7/2

Moonblaze checks in third on our ratings at 55.83 and pairs well with trainer Kathleen A. Demasi, who also saddles Meadowlark Drive — keeping an eye on both for any pre-race action is wise. Andrew Wolfsont gets the call and the 7/2 morning line feels right for a show candidate. With an average speed of 55, Moonblaze has the raw figures to earn a check in this field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:31 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Couches Burning looks like a standout favorite in this starter allowance, but Sociably Johnny's sneaky-high rating at a big price makes the exacta and trifecta worth building around these two.

win1Couches BurningML 8/5

Couches Burning is the clear top choice here with a TrackWiz rating of 88.21 — the highest in the field by more than five points — and a 25% career win rate that backs up the projection. Trainer Kelly J. Breen knows how to win starter allowances at Monmouth, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a sharp partner in this spot. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the dominant rating makes this a confident single in multi-race wagers.

place7Sociably JohnnyML 6/1

Sociably Johnny is the most compelling value angle in this race at 6/1 on the morning line, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — second only to the favorite. A 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but it's solid for starter allowance company, and trainer Derek S. Ryan has a knack for placing horses in conditions where they can find the board. Jefferson Skerrett gets the mount, and at 6/1, Sociably Johnny could easily beat the morning line in the place pool.

show3Solomini's WorldML 5/1

Solomini's World rates third in the field at 70.39 for trainer Antonio Arriaga, who also has Strategicoperation in Race 2 — a barn active today. Noel Herman takes the mount in what looks like a pace-pressing role, and the 5/1 morning line on a horse that grades out this clearly as the third-best runner offers real show-ticket merit. Keep Solomini's World alive in trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

3:06 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A competitive 11-horse turf stakes going a mile sets up as a real pace puzzle — the morning-line favorite There Are No Words will need to handle pressure, while Gaelicheartofgold's elite win rate makes the 8/1 price an eye-opener.

win7There Are No WordsML 8/5

There Are No Words is the morning-line chalk at 8/5 for trainer Chuck Spina, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.41 justifies the favoritism in a wide-open stakes field. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is one of the meet's sharpest jockeys, and he'll likely put this horse in a prime stalking position over a mile of turf. At 13% career win rate the numbers might look modest, but in stakes company that's respectable — the rating tells the real story here.

place11GaelicheartofgoldML 8/1

Gaelicheartofgold is the number that jumps off the page at 8/1 — a 42% career win rate is the single best mark in this field and it's not close. Trainer Wayne Potts puts Jefferson Skerrett up, and while the average speed of 52 is on the lower end, career win percentage at this level suggests a horse that knows how to finish. The overlay potential is significant: if this horse runs back to even a fraction of its career form, 8/1 is a steal for a place ticket.

show3Happy OfferingML 8/1

Happy Offering rates at 77.11 for trainer Chuck Spina — who doubles up in this race — and carries an 18% career win rate with a consistent speed profile. Jose C. Ferrer handles the mount, and at 8/1 on the morning line, this is genuine show value in a deep stakes field. When a trainer enters two horses in a stakes, it often signals real confidence in both, making Happy Offering worth including in all exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

3:41 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Crypto Man and Tiger Moon look like a two-horse show in this dirt starter allowance — the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated from the pack, and the key question is which one gets the better trip over a route of ground.

win5Crypto ManML 5/2

Crypto Man tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite carrying just a 10% career win percentage — suggesting this horse has been running in tougher spots and is now set up to graduate in favorable conditions. Trainer Alexis Delgado places Carlos Eduardo Rojas in the irons, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's solid win value on a horse whose rating clearly grades out first. Route of ground on dirt suits closers, and Crypto Man's profile screams late kick.

place4Tiger MoonML 9/5

Tiger Moon is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 83.88 and an 18% career win rate — the most accomplished runner on paper. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. gets the call for trainer Lindsay Schultz, and this horse's average speed of 54 is among the better marks in the field. The 9/5 price is short, but as a place anchor in exactas and trifectas, Tiger Moon is the safest ticket to print.

show6SkylanderML 3/1

Skylander brings a 21% career win rate into this spot — best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 73.05 that slots cleanly as third-best. Jose C. Ferrer is a consistent performer at Monmouth for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias, who has had multiple horses competitive at this meet. At 3/1 on the morning line, Skylander is a strong show play and a key in trifectas around the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

4:16 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Cold Feet is the class of this optional claiming turf sprint with the best TrackWiz rating in the field, but If Ever's eye-popping 50% win rate and the morning-line favorite Pivotal Moment make this a race with multiple legitimate angles.

win5Cold FeetML 7/2

Cold Feet carries a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the top mark in the field — and backs it up with a 28% career win rate and an average speed of 56, one of the better figures in the field. Trainer Silvino Ramirez puts Jorge Luis Gonzalez in the irons, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's genuine win value on what appears to be the form horse. In a 5.5-furlong turf optional claimer, Cold Feet's combination of speed and consistency makes this a clear top play.

place7Beach BeamerML 5/1

Beach Beamer rates at 75.11 — third in the field — and the 5/1 morning line offers real appeal for a horse that trainer Tony Wilson has positioned well. Charlie Marquez gets the mount, and Beach Beamer's average speed of 56 matches the top horses in the field on raw figures. This is a prototypical place value play: not necessarily a winner, but too well-qualified to leave off the board.

show4Pivotal MomentML 3/2

Pivotal Moment is the morning-line favorite at 3/2 for trainer Miguel Clement, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the mount on a horse that posts an average speed of 57 — the highest figure in the race. The TrackWiz rating of 72.23 is fourth in the field, which is actually a mild red flag for the favorite — there may be some overestimation in the public's price. As a show play, the low odds make it unexciting, but Pivotal Moment is reliable enough to anchor show parlays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

4:51 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse field in this mile turf allowance optional claiming makes for a complex betting race — St. Erling and Smithwick's Spice separate themselves on our ratings, but at these morning-line prices, the exotics are where the value lives.

win14St. ErlingML 5/1

St. Erling stands out with a TrackWiz rating of 81.13 and the highest average speed in the top picks at 56, giving trainer Joan Milne's runner legitimate class credentials in this AOC field. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. climbs aboard — the meet's most reliable jockey — and at 5/1 on the morning line, St. Erling looks undervalued relative to the rating. The zero career win percentage is the one flag, but in a field this large, it may simply reflect tough competition until now.

place9Smithwick's SpiceML 8/1

Smithwick's Spice posts a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, just behind St. Erling, and comes in with a 25% career win rate — strong credentials for a turf mile. The average speed of 57 is the best figure among any horse in this race, which stands out in a field where most runners are clustered in the 52-54 range. Jorge Luis Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Douglas Nunn, and at 8/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate overlay with place-ticket punch in a massive field.

show1Frankie GML 4/1

Frankie G rates at 68.23 for trainer Russell J. Cash, landing comfortably in the top third of a 14-horse field. Ramon F. Moya picks up the mount, and with a career win rate of 8%, this horse has been competitive without always closing — exactly the profile that can pick up a show spot in a big, complex field. At 4/1 on the morning line, Frankie G is worth a show ticket and makes a sensible key in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Today at Monmouth Park is a well-rounded card with real opportunities across the board. Ball of Fire is the strongest-graded free play of the day, There Are No Words headlines a competitive turf stakes, and our models have flagged several underlays and overlays worth acting on. The top plays are in — get the full picture with a TrackWiz Premium subscription and head into post time with confidence.

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