Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026
It's a beautiful Sunday at the Jersey Shore — clear skies, 80 degrees, and the turf courses at Monmouth Park should be running at their best. Eight races are on the board today, split between dirt and grass, giving bettors plenty of angles to work with from the first post all the way through.
The card has a little bit of everything: maiden sprints on the turf to kick things off, a couple of starter allowances that tend to draw competitive fields, and the centerpiece of the afternoon — a one-mile turf stakes where There Are No Words comes in at 8/5 on the morning line and has our handicappers' attention. We'll get to all of it.
Three races are fully open for everyone today, and our TrackWiz ratings have surfaced some legitimate value across the card — including a 6/1 morning line shot in Race 3 that grades out stronger than her odds suggest. Let's break it down.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open maiden sprint on the turf with a full field of first-timers — TrackWiz ratings are bunched tightly in the 51-57 range, meaning workout patterns and trainer angles will separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Justintimeformusic draws the morning line favoritism at 3/1 for a reason, and our TrackWiz rating of 56.67 tops the field. Trainer Jose H. Delgado sends this one out with the kind of pre-race buzz that suggests confidence, and Charlie Marquez gets the call in the irons. In a field of all first-timers where raw ability projections are everything, Justintimeformusic edges out the competition on our composite score — a meaningful edge when the margins are this thin.
Bettabe Tough (4/1) checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 55.0 under trainer Kathleen O'Connell, who has a reputation for having first-timers ready to fire. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the mount, a capable hand who knows how to position a turf debutant in a short 5-furlong sprint. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's legit place value here if the top pick falters.
The Wrath of David sits at 9/2 on the morning line with a rating of 54.17, tied with stablemate It's Prime Time but drawing the inside post advantage at the 4-hole. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi has two horses in this spot, which is always worth noting — when a barn doubles up in a maiden, they believe they have live runners. Andrew Wolfsont takes the mount and the post draw could set up a ground-saving trip.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Ball of Fire stands apart in this 6-furlong dirt claimer with a TrackWiz rating nearly 13 points clear of the next rival — when the numbers separate a horse this decisively in a claiming field, you take notice.
Ball of Fire posts a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, easily the class of this field, and backs it up with a 33% career win rate — the best in the race. Trainer Michael V. Simone puts Cipriano Gil in the irons, and this horse has shown consistent average speed figures of 53. The rating gap over the next closest rival (My Man Money at 72.91) is significant in a 6-horse claiming field, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the price is workable for win plays.
My Man Money brings a 20% career win rate into this spot, which is respectable for claiming company, and a TrackWiz rating of 72.91 makes her a legitimate threat to land on the board. Chantal Sutherland is a savvy pilot who excels at finding the right position in pace-dependent dirt sprints. At 7/2, My Man Money could easily outrun her morning line if the pace sets up for a closer.
Bonsai Warrior's TrackWiz rating of 64.84 and 14% career win rate make him a reliable show contender in a field where the top two are clearly separated from the pack. Trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias places Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, a jockey comfortable stalking the pace and grinding to the wire in dirt sprints. At 3/1, Bonsai Warrior offers show-ticket value in what looks like a three-horse race at the top.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
This maiden turf sprint is loaded with first-timers and lightly raced types, but Honor the Numbers stands out as a live overlay at 6/1 — the TrackWiz numbers say the morning line is underselling the top choice while the crowd may overbet the flashy morning-line favorite.
Honor the Numbers sits at 6/1 on the morning line but carries our top TrackWiz rating of 60.04 — that's a notable disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends Jose C. Ferrer aboard, and this runner shows an average speed figure of 53 with the upside projection that bumps the composite score to the top of the field. In a 5.5-furlong turf maiden with a lot of unknowns, the combination of rating edge and morning-line value makes this our top play.
Prima Donna is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, and trainer Michael Stidham — a nationally respected conditioner — doesn't ship horses to Monmouth without a legitimate chance. The TrackWiz rating of 57.5 is second in the field, and Chantal Sutherland is exactly the jockey you want for a turf debut at this distance. The concern is simply the short price — as a place play, 5/2 still gets the job done in exotics.
Moonblaze checks in third on our ratings at 55.83 and pairs well with trainer Kathleen A. Demasi, who also saddles Meadowlark Drive — keeping an eye on both for any pre-race action is wise. Andrew Wolfsont gets the call and the 7/2 morning line feels right for a show candidate. With an average speed of 55, Moonblaze has the raw figures to earn a check in this field.
The free portion of today's card kicks off with a pair of turf maiden sprints and a six-furlong dirt claimer sandwiched in between. Justintimeformusic opens the day in Race 1 at 3/1 on a five-furlong turf sprint — a distance that rewards speed and clean breaks, so watch the gate closely. In the middle, Ball of Fire stands out in Race 2 with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, the highest of the three free races, which tells you this horse grades as the most resolute play of the group on a dirt surface that should be fast and true today.
Don't sleep on Honor the Numbers in Race 3 — posted at 6/1 but carrying a 60.04 TrackWiz rating that outpaces where the morning line puts her. On a clear day with the turf playing well, pace scenarios on a 5½-furlong grass sprint can shift quickly, and that's exactly where overlays tend to emerge. These three races offer solid foundational plays before the card really heats up.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Today at Monmouth Park is a well-rounded card with real opportunities across the board. Ball of Fire is the strongest-graded free play of the day, There Are No Words headlines a competitive turf stakes, and our models have flagged several underlays and overlays worth acting on. The top plays are in — get the full picture with a TrackWiz Premium subscription and head into post time with confidence.