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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

July 5, 20269 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 5, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 5, 2026

Race 15VersusML 8/512:50 PM EDT

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Happy belated Fourth — and welcome to a Sunday afternoon at Monmouth Park that's about as Jersey Shore summer as it gets. Partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F mean ideal conditions for both the dirt and turf courses, so don't expect weather to be an excuse today. Nine races are on the board, and this card has enough variety to keep casual fans and serious players engaged from first post to the nightcap.

Three turf routes, a Stakes race, four maiden events, and a pair of claiming sprints — there's something for every betting style here. The grass looks to be in great shape on a day like this, and our analysis flagged several strong turf figures that could produce some sharp overlays. Keep an eye on that pace scenario in the routes — with the heat having baked the turf firm earlier in the week, early speed has been surviving longer than usual at this meet.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A clear top-two standout situation on the turf opener, with Versus and Tacticality separating themselves from the field on ratings — but La Frost offers sneaky value underneath at a generous price.

win5VersusML 8/5

Versus is the standout on TrackWiz ratings with an 89.12 score — the highest mark in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Kelly Breen ships out a live one here, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. picks up the mount, a pairing worth noting. The 1 1/16-mile turf trip suits closers who can settle early, and Versus profiles as exactly that type. At 8/5 on the morning line, the market agrees — this is the horse to beat.

place7TacticalityML 2/1

Tacticality checks in with a 78.97 TrackWiz rating and a strong 33% career win rate, giving this Chad Brown-trained runner the pedigree of a horse that gets the job done more often than not. Brown is one of the premier turf trainers in the country, and 1 1/16 miles on the lawn is squarely in his wheelhouse. At 2/1, connecting in the exacta underneath Versus is the natural play.

show2La FrostML 6/1

La Frost is the standout value in this field — a 50% career win rate is a staggering number that quietly makes her one of the most accomplished horses on paper, and the 64.46 rating reflects that. Trainer Teresa Pompay sends her out at 6/1, which feels generous given that win percentage. In turf races where pace can get complicated, a horse with that kind of strike rate belongs in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint on the dirt where no horse has ever hit the board — everyone starts at zero, and the edges come from trainer intent and workouts rather than past results.

win3Midnight VoodooML 2/1

Midnight Voodoo tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 in a field where the margins between contenders are razor thin. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. puts Charlie Marquez up, a local jockey who knows the Monmouth oval well. In maiden sprints like this, a slight edge in raw ability often tells the tale — and Midnight Voodoo's rating advantage, while modest, is the clearest signal we have. At 2/1 morning line, the public and our model are aligned.

place4She's a TwelveML 3/1

She's a Twelve draws the Kelly Breen barn, and that trainer angle alone is worth paying attention to in a maiden race — Breen consistently conditions horses to be ready first out. The 56.67 rating slots her in just behind the top pick, and Jose Antonio Gomez in the irons adds a live-rider dimension. At 3/1, she's a natural play in the exacta.

show5Creative ThinkerML 7/2

Creative Thinker at 7/2 offers a compelling trifecta piece with a 55.83 rating that's competitive in this shallow maiden field. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the call for Sergio Rabadan, and Rivera has been active at this meet. In a race where the top three are separated by only a couple of points on our ratings, Creative Thinker's price makes her the most attractive show play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

We're opening three races to everyone today, and they tell an interesting story. Versus lands on top of Race 1 with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — that's the highest score among our three free picks and one of the strongest figures on the entire card. As an allowance optional claimer going 1 1/16 miles on turf, this is the kind of spot where class tells, and Versus fits the conditions like a glove at an 8/5 morning line that looks fair rather than generous. Take the price early if you like this one.

Race 2 and Race 3 bring different challenges. Midnight Voodoo draws our nod in the 5-furlong maiden dirt dash at 2/1, though a 58.33 rating reflects genuine uncertainty — maiden sprints can be a coin flip, and we'll be transparent about that. Red Head Italian is the most interesting of the three free picks: a 4/1 morning line in a Starter Allowance at 6 furlongs on dirt with an 85.62 rating suggests real upside relative to the odds. Starter Allowance races (limited to horses that have started for a claiming price) often feature horses on the way up, and Red Head Italian fits that profile in our model.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

2:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse in this starter allowance — Red Head Italian has a significant ratings edge over the field and offers real value at 4/1.

win2Red Head ItalianML 4/1

Red Head Italian posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 10 points clear of the next-best horse in the field — and yet the morning line has her going off at 4/1, well behind Charlie's Beauty as the favorite. That's the kind of disconnect our model loves. Trainer Kelly Breen is putting Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, a top rider at this meet, and the 22% career win rate shows this mare knows how to cross the wire first. Six furlongs on the dirt is a straightforward ask.

place4Charlie's BeautyML 6/5

Charlie's Beauty is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, backed by a 31% career win rate that justifies the market position. The 75.19 rating is second-best in the field, and trainer Juan Carlos Avila has her primed. She's a legitimate threat to win, but with Red Head Italian outrating her by over 10 points, landing in the place hole feels like the floor here. She belongs in every vertical exotic.

show6SofsterML 5/1

Sofster at 5/1 rounds out a logical trifecta with a 66.75 rating that puts her clearly in the mix. The 14% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a starter allowance, consistency matters — and Noel Herman picking up the ride keeps her connected to live action. As a show play or trifecta filler, her price-to-ability ratio is worth exploiting.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:34 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

First-time starters collide in a nine-horse maiden sprint, making this one of the tougher puzzles on the card — but Sea Devil's rating advantage and connections give her a clear edge.

win1Sea DevilML 6/5

Sea Devil leads all comers with a 59.67 TrackWiz rating in a field where most entrants cluster in the 45-55 range. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. puts Luis R. Rivera, Jr. on top — that's the meet's leading rider in many respects, and adding him to a maiden with upside is a meaningful signal. At 6/5 on the morning line, she's the deserved favorite, and our model agrees. In maiden sprints with no prior speed figures to lean on, raw ratings and connections are your best guide.

place2T L From E KML 4/1

T L From E K is the Kelly Breen entry, and the trainer's reputation in maiden races at Monmouth is well established. The 55.0 rating puts her second on our board, and Jose Antonio Gomez keeps the ride — a familiar pairing for this barn. At 4/1, she's the most logical candidate to fill the place slot if Sea Devil clears the field.

show5Itsy Bitsy BossML 6/1

Itsy Bitsy Boss checks in at 51.67 on our ratings — the third-best score in the field — and Sergio Rabadan sends her out at 6/1. Jose C. Ferrer takes the mount, and in a spread-out maiden field, having three horses separated by clear ability tiers makes the trifecta 1-2-5 worth a look. She's the natural show-bet play in a race where the top three are well-defined.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

3:08 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Seat At the Table is a class standout in this starter optional claiming event on the turf, but Bella Bello Banker at 10/1 offers legitimate value if the pace sets up right.

win6Seat At the TableML 2/1

Seat At the Table is the horse to beat with an elite 88.54 TrackWiz rating — second-highest among all horses on today's Monmouth card — backed by a remarkable 42% career win rate. That win percentage is exceptional; nearly half the time this horse has gone to the gate, she's come back to the winner's circle. Trainer Philip Antonacci sends her out at 2/1 with Luis R. Rivera, Jr. in the irons. The 1 1/16-mile turf trip fits the profile of a horse with that kind of stamina to keep winning.

place1Bella Bello BankerML 10/1

Bella Bello Banker is our place pick at a juicy 10/1 morning line, and here's the case: her 69.16 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and her 18% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila has her primed, and Charlie Marquez knows the turf course here. At double-digit odds, she's the clearest value play in the exotics — a 10/1 place hit is a meaningful return.

show7Juniper JuiceML 9/2

Juniper Juice at 9/2 fills out the show slot with a 68.82 rating that's nearly identical to Bella Bello Banker's, making this race tighter at the top than the morning line suggests. Trainer Kevin C. Boniface puts Chantal Sutherland up, a rider who handles turf routes well. Her 15% career win rate in a competitive field means she's more than capable of hitting the board, and the price makes her a smart trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Haunting Echoes stands miles apart on our ratings in a maiden dirt sprint, but the morning line has her at 5/2 — there's a clear top pick here, and the question is just how much you can get her for.

win5Haunting EchoesML 5/2

Haunting Echoes posts an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best horse checks in at 58.33 — that's nearly a 30-point gap, which is enormous in a maiden race. Despite that edge, the morning line offers her at 5/2, which may represent real value if the public spreads money across the short-priced field. Trainer Louis C. Linder, Jr. has Luis M. Ocasio in the irons, a veteran who won't waste a horse this talented. This is our most confident-looking maiden pick on the card.

place1Ravenwood HillML 2/1

Ravenwood Hill is the Kelly Breen trainee heading to the gate at 2/1 — the morning-line favorite — with a 58.33 rating that's solid but well behind our top pick. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the call, which is always encouraging, and Breen's maiden win rate at this track gives the horse legitimate credentials. She's a logical place horse for exotics even if Haunting Echoes runs away with this.

show2Miss TaroML 5/2

Miss Taro checks in at 57.5 on our ratings and is co-listed at 5/2 alongside Haunting Echoes on the morning line — the public clearly sees a closer race than our numbers suggest. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends her out with Jose C. Ferrer up, and her rating is competitive enough to hit the show slot in a short maiden field of six. For trifecta players, the 1-2-3 or 5-1-2 combination covers the most logical outcomes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

4:16 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Stakes day on the short turf brings a deep, contentious nine-horse field where our top pick is a legitimate price play — Echo Juliet at 8/1 outrates most of the field and could reward patient exotic bettors.

win7Echo JulietML 8/1

Echo Juliet leads this stakes field with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and posts at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect between our model and the public's money. Trainer Brett A. Brinkman saddles up Julio A. Hernandez, and the 16% career win rate in stakes company shows she belongs at this level. The 5.5-furlong turf trip is a unique distance that rewards horses with tactical speed, and Echo Juliet's profile fits that mold. At 8/1, this is the top value play on the card.

place3Tap Into GraceML 4/1

Tap Into Grace brings a 33% career win rate into this stakes field — tied for the highest in the race — along with a 73.0 rating that makes her a clear second on our board. Trainer Brittany T. Russell puts Abner Adorno up, and a one-in-three win rate at any level is hard to ignore. At 4/1, she's the most likely threat to our top pick and a natural exacta partner.

show2CarolyncarolineML 6/1

Carolyncaroline at 6/1 is the show selection with a 62.4 rating and a profile that suggests she can mix it up at a short turf distance. Trainer Lindsay Schultz sends her out with Martin Chuan, and while the 14% career win rate is modest, in a wide-open stakes race, a horse with that kind of price can deliver big trifecta returns. She's the contrarian piece that makes the exotic ticket pop.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

No Denying dominates this claiming sprint on paper, but the field is competitive enough that pace could play a factor — the real question is whether Toasttothestones can track her down late.

win4No DenyingML 3/1

No Denying leads this claiming field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — nearly 22 points clear of the next serious challenger — and backs it with a 33% career win rate that's the best in the race. Trainer Devon Dougherty hands the reins to Charlie Marquez, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse this dominant on ratings. Six furlongs on the dirt is a standard ask, and No Denying looks built for it. This is our top play in the second half of the card.

place8ToasttothestonesML 7/2

Toasttothestones is a natural place play with a 64.98 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — both competitive numbers in a claiming field. Trainer Kelly Breen keeps Jose Antonio Gomez aboard, a pairing that's been productive at this meet. At 7/2, there's value in using her in exactas and trifectas, especially if she's sitting off a fast pace and closing.

show2Charming JennieML 4/1

Charming Jennie at 4/1 rounds out the ticket with a 58.9 rating and a 20% career win rate that shows she can find the board. Jefferson Skerrett picks up the mount for trainer Wayne Potts, and in a claiming race where pace scenarios can shuffle the order, a horse with a respectable win percentage at a decent price is worth including in your show bets and trifecta spreads.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 9

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The card closes with a turf claiming mile where Red Sky Morning is a dominant ratings standout — but Duck Duck Goose at 8/1 is the longshot angle that makes this race interesting.

win7Red Sky MorningML 3/1

Red Sky Morning tops our ratings at 87.08 — tied for the highest mark across all nine races today — and presents at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Michael Dini keeps the reins in-house with Francisco Martinez up, and a 20% career win rate in a claiming field is solid. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance rewards horses with tactical versatility, and Red Sky Morning's average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the competitive set. This is a strong win play to close out the card.

place5Duck Duck GooseML 8/1

Duck Duck Goose arrives at 8/1 with the best career win rate in the field at 28% — more than double what most of her competitors can claim. Trainer Devon Dougherty has shown she can get horses ready to run, and Charlie Marquez takes over the mount. The 76.29 rating makes Duck Duck Goose the second-best horse on our board, and at 8/1, this is the best place-bet value of the day. Don't let that price fool you — the underlying numbers are strong.

show4Wild JaimeML 9/2

Wild Jaime at 9/2 completes the ticket with a 67.4 TrackWiz rating that's third in this field. Trainer Wayne Potts puts Jose C. Ferrer up, and while the 5% career win rate is a concern, closing turf races can produce unexpected results when pace falls apart up front. The rating is there, the rider is capable, and the price makes her a worthwhile show hedge to anchor the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Today's card at Monmouth is a genuinely solid Sunday afternoon of racing. The headline plays are Versus in Race 1 (free), Red Head Italian in Race 3 (free), and — for subscribers — Echo Juliet as a live longshot in the Race 7 Stakes. Conditions are ideal, the turf is playing fast, and the pace setups in the routes favor horses with tactical speed. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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