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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

July 4, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 4, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 4, 2026

Race 13El Ma'anyML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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Happy Fourth of July from the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park is putting on an 8-race card today under blazing sunshine — 94°F at post time with a clear sky overhead. That kind of heat can be a factor, especially in the later races, and with a healthy mix of turf and dirt events on the slate, surface management is going to be a running theme all afternoon.

Six of the eight races hit the turf or dirt at a mile or farther, so stamina and pace scenario matter more than usual today. The headliner is Race 7 — a stakes event on the turf mile where Gold Trust draws our attention at a morning line of 4/1. Stakes days at Monmouth in the summer bring out sharp money, so watch for any late action there before you commit.

We've got three free races unlocked for every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — plus five premium breakdowns behind the paywall. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Michael Dini saddles two live horses in this turf claimer, setting up an intriguing barn battle with the rest of the field playing catch-up on the numbers.

win3El Ma'anyML 5/2

El Ma'any tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in the field by a noticeable margin — and comes in under Francisco Martinez for trainer Michael Dini, a barn that clearly knows how to get horses ready on this surface. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is far from a throwaway favorite; the rating gap over second-best Radar Loop is wide enough to demand respect. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance suits horses with tactical speed, and El Ma'any's profile fits the bill here.

place4Radar LoopML 2/1

Radar Loop is the other Dini entry and checks in with a 76.64 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race. Stablemates can be tricky to sort out, but Radar Loop's presence as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 suggests the connections see him as a serious threat. He's a solid place anchor in exotics precisely because the Dini barn tends to fire both barrels.

show2Only YouML 5/2

Only You has a 64.6 rating and a 12% career win rate that stands up reasonably well in this field. Trainer Jorge Delgado also has Sushi in the race, but Only You looks like the stable's stronger runner based on the numbers. At 5/2 on the morning line, the show price won't be juicy, but as a key in trifectas behind the Dini duo, Only You makes sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:21 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where every horse is still chasing that first win — but Royal Merit looks like a clear class above, making this more of a price-hunting exercise for the rest of the slots.

win4Royal MeritML 7/5

Royal Merit owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 89.42 — and it's not particularly close — while posting an average speed figure of 54 that ties the best in the race. Michael Dini conditions this one for Francisco Martinez in the irons, a combo that carries real weight in these New Jersey maiden events. At 7/5 on the morning line, you're not getting rich, but in a race with this much separation at the top, the favorite is often the right call.

place3Jersey's the BossML 2/1

Jersey's the Boss checks in second on TrackWiz ratings at 57.57 and also clocks an average speed of 54, matching Royal Merit's figure. Trainer Rory K. Huston sends this one out at 2/1 morning line, making the place return modest but the probability reasonable. If Royal Merit stumbles or gets caught in traffic, Jersey's the Boss is the most likely heir to a top-two finish.

show1World Wide WebML 6/1

World Wide Web is an interesting piece at 6/1 morning line with a 57.06 rating that's nearly identical to Jersey's the Boss — essentially a coin flip for third-best in this field. Trainer Philip T. Aristone puts Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. up top, and the horse's 53 average speed figure is competitive. In a wide-open maiden race where the chalk can get beat, World Wide Web offers genuine show value in your exacta and trifecta wheels.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The opening trio gives us a nice cross-section of the card. On the turf to start things off, El Ma'any (Race 1, 5/2 ML) tops our model with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a 1 1/16-mile claimer — a distance that should play to strengths we like on this course. From there we shift to the dirt for Race 2, where Royal Merit checks in as our highest-rated free pick at 89.42 in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden claimer. When our model spits out a number that high in a maiden field, it's worth paying attention. Then it's back to the turf for Race 3, a short sprint claimer where Gold Stamp (2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) looks well-positioned if the pace sets up correctly.

One angle worth noting across these three: the turf has been playing consistently here at Monmouth in the summer heat, and with temps this high, horses that can settle early and finish strong tend to have an edge over front-runners that might tire in the stretch. Keep that in mind as you watch the pace develop in Races 1 and 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Gold Stamp looms as a heavy number in this short turf claimer, but Speightfulelection's top raw speed figure creates enough of a pace question to make the race shape worth watching.

win5Gold StampML 2/1

Gold Stamp is the clear TrackWiz top pick at 88.54, which is a full 27 points clear of the next horse — a gap you don't see often in a field like this. What stands out beyond the rating is the average speed figure of 55, tied for highest here, with trainer Michael Dini sending Francisco Martinez out for what looks like a well-spotted assignment. At 2/1 on the morning line, the public will likely push this one lower, but the underlying numbers justify the confidence.

place2TaprixieML 7/2

Taprixie has a 61.72 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 14% — the best in this field outside of Gold Stamp. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay puts Christian Maragh aboard at 7/2 morning line, and this one has the look of a horse that can find the board consistently at this level. The shorter 5 1/2-furlong turf trip should suit a horse that profiles as a presser or mid-pack runner with a solid kick.

show3Sliver of SunshineML 3/1

Sliver of Sunshine sits third on ratings at 59.16 with a 15% career win rate — the highest in the field — which suggests this horse knows how to close the deal when conditions align. At 3/1 on the morning line, the show price will be thin, but the consistency angle makes this a logical trifecta key behind the top two. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi puts Andrew Wolfsont aboard on a surface and trip where this horse has demonstrated the ability to fire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — All the Luck and They Call Me Sue — are nearly identical at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden dirt sprint, setting up a fascinating head-to-head that could produce a tight exacta.

win3All the LuckML 9/5

All the Luck leads the field by a whisker at 87.88 on TrackWiz ratings, edging out stablemate-rival They Call Me Sue by just 0.07 points — essentially a dead heat on the numbers. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney sends Jose C. Ferrer aboard at 9/5 on the morning line, and the horse's average speed of 53 is solid for this maiden claiming level. In a race where the top two are this close, All the Luck gets the slight nod based on the numbers and what figures to be a favorable pace scenario at six furlongs on the dirt.

place2They Call Me SueML 5/2

They Call Me Sue is the flip side of the coin here — 87.81 rating, an average speed of 53, and a 5/2 morning line that offers a touch more value than the top pick. Trainer Tony Wilson puts Noel Herman in the saddle, and this horse has the profile of one that runs consistently even when it doesn't win. The nearly identical ratings to All the Luck make this the safest place play on the board.

show5Lorden's PrideML 7/2

Lorden's Pride sits third in the ratings at 69.12, which is a meaningful step below the top two but still well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi puts Andrew Wolfsont up at 7/2 morning line, and this one's figure gap over the bottom half of the field is wide enough to make it a reliable show horse in exotics. If either top horse underperforms, Lorden's Pride is the most logical beneficiary of a top-three finish.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

3:06 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 11-horse maiden turf field where three horses separate themselves clearly on ratings — making pace and post position bigger factors than usual in this full-field mile-and-a-sixteenth route.

win6Mind BogglingML 7/2

Mind Boggling tops out at an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a clear step above most of this field, and posts an average speed of 54 that matches the best in the race. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends Charlie Marquez out at 7/2 on the morning line — solid value for a horse that grades this well. In big maiden turf fields, horses that profile as pace-pressers often thrive when the leaders get into a speed battle, and Mind Boggling looks equipped to take advantage.

place11Seeking SerenityML 5/1

Seeking Serenity is the second-best rated horse at 75.46, a notable 11-point gap behind the top pick but equally notable ahead of the rest of the field. Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. gets the call for trainer Wayne Potts at 5/1 on the morning line, which represents real value for a horse this well-rated. In a full field going a mile and a sixteenth on turf, a horse with this profile and that morning line is exactly the type you want in your exacta.

show3La PlumaML 8/1

La Pluma checks in third at 58.13 on TrackWiz ratings for the Michael Dini barn, with Francisco Martinez in the irons at 8/1 morning line. The Dini-Martinez combination is a reliable angle at Monmouth, and while La Pluma's rating trails the top two, the horse's 53 average speed figure is respectable in this field. At 8/1, there's genuine show value here, and this is the type of price horse that belongs in your trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

3:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Bee N Dee dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile-plus dirt claimer and looks like a clear standout — the question is whether the field can make it interesting enough to create any overlay in the exotics.

win6Bee N DeeML 8/5

Bee N Dee owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at an impressive 89.12, and a 11% career win rate that holds up comfortably in this claiming company. Trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez puts Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard at 8/5 on the morning line, and the horse's average speed of 51 is in line with the surface dynamics here. At a mile and 70 yards on the dirt, horses that can track the pace and kick late are at a premium, and Bee N Dee's profile points to exactly that style of running.

place3SecuritylightningML 5/2

Securitylightning is second on ratings at 66.7 — a significant drop from Bee N Dee, but well clear of the rest of the field — and carries a 6% career win rate at 5/2 morning line. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell puts Melissa Iorio up in the irons, and an average speed of 53 gives this one a legitimate edge in the pace scenario. As a place horse, Securitylightning is the most logical second finisher if the favorite does her job.

show4Rachel CarolineML 6/1

Rachel Caroline sits third on TrackWiz ratings at 61.04, just a few ticks behind Securitylightning, and Chantal Sutherland is a quality rider who can find the rail on the front end at this distance. Trainer James A. Frangella, Jr. sends this one out at 6/1 morning line, meaning the show price should be worth something in trifectas. The 53 average speed figure matches Securitylightning, making this a legitimate threat for a piece of the purse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

4:19 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open Independence Day stakes on turf with 14 runners and four horses clustered between 79 and 84 on TrackWiz ratings — expect a genuine pace battle and a potentially wide-open result.

win1Gold TrustML 4/1

Gold Trust leads the TrackWiz ratings at 83.67 in this full field and brings a spectacular 38% career win rate that stands out in a stakes field of this size. Michael Dini conditions and Francisco Martinez rides — the go-to combo at this meet — and an average speed figure of 57 is the best in the race by a meaningful margin. The combination of the top speed figure, the top win percentage, and that trainer-jockey pairing gives Gold Trust the edge even at 4/1 on the morning line.

place3There Are No WordsML 2/1

There Are No Words is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and checks in at 80.72 on TrackWiz ratings — the second-best number in the field. Trainer Chuck Spina keeps Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, and an average speed of 55 is right in the mix with the leaders. This horse profiles as a pace tracker who can run down horses late, and in a 14-horse field on turf, that closer style often pays dividends when the speed gets into a war up front.

show8Frankie GML 6/1

Frankie G earns the show nod at 80.10 on TrackWiz ratings, the third-best figure in this large field, with trainer Russell J. Cash sending Jomar Torres out at 6/1 morning line. The 54 average speed is competitive, and a 6/1 price in a deep stakes field is the kind of number that pays well in trifectas and superfectas. With four horses legitimately in the mix, Frankie G at that price is a smart hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 8

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Surprise Package and Denying are separated by just a few points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a fascinating duel in this one-mile dirt claimer — with Brave Bear lurking at a fair price if either top horse falters.

win5Surprise PackageML 5/2

Surprise Package holds the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and pairs it with a remarkable 31% career win rate — by far the best in this field and the kind of number that doesn't show up often at the claiming level. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell puts Jefferson Skerrett aboard at 5/2 on the morning line, and the horse's 53 average speed figure matches the top of the field. That win percentage alone makes this a horse you have to make work in your tickets.

place4DenyingML 9/5

Denying runs as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and sits just behind Surprise Package at 85.25 on TrackWiz ratings — close enough that this is essentially a pick between the two. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila goes with Angel Morales in the irons, and the horse's 10% career win rate with a 53 average speed is perfectly suited for this one-mile dirt assignment. The place position feels appropriate here — Denying is live to win but may be best framed as a solid second option.

show2Brave BearML 3/1

Brave Bear sits third at 65.61 on TrackWiz ratings with a 25% career win rate that tells you this horse is no stranger to hitting the board. Trainer Joseph Pantaleo puts Chantal Sutherland aboard at 3/1 morning line — solid value for a horse with that kind of winning pedigree. If the top two horses burn each other up on the front end, Brave Bear has the tactical profile to pick up the pieces and secure a show check.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Bottom line for today: El Ma'any, Royal Merit, and Gold Stamp are your free best bets to kick off the Fourth of July card at Monmouth. The stakes race in Race 7 — with Gold Trust at a juicy 4/1 morning line — is the marquee spot, and our full pace and exotic analysis is ready for subscribers right now. Enjoy the racing, bet smart, and have a great holiday. Full premium breakdown available at TrackWiz.

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