Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026
It's a beautiful Sunday at the Jersey Shore — partly cloudy skies, a pleasant 75°F, and eight races on the Monmouth Park card to keep you busy all afternoon. Conditions are about as good as it gets for a summer meet, and with the turf courses almost certainly playing fair, the grass races figure to be wide open and competitive.
Four of today's eight races take place on the turf, and the mix of maiden special weight sprints, claiming events, and a starter handicap gives bettors plenty of angles to attack. Whether you're grinding exotics or just looking for a couple of solid win plays, today's card has something for everyone.
TrackWiz has broken down all eight races, with our top picks rated on a 100-point scale. Three races are available free to all readers — the rest are unlocked for subscribers who want the full picture before post time.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A turf claiming mile that splits into two clear tiers — the top three in TrackWiz ratings are separated by a significant gap from the rest of the field, but the morning line tells a different story with the favorite sitting fourth in our ratings.
Tok Tok tops our ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line, which is where the value lives in this spot. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Derek S. Ryan, and with a 23% career win rate, this horse has shown an ability to get the job done at a solid clip. That rating gap over the morning-line favorite Fidelightcayut is meaningful at 1 1/16 miles on turf, where class and consistency tend to sort things out late.
Fidelightcayut draws the most wagering attention at 9/5 on the morning line, and that respect is partially earned — an 80.34 rating and a 29% career win rate are both strong figures. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who also saddles Tocayo, clearly has this barn rolling, and Angel Morales keeps the mount. The concern is the price; if Tok Tok fires, Fidelightcayut's backers may be getting the worst of it.
Jurisprudence is the standout value play in the exotics at 10/1 on the morning line. That 75.18 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field and the 30% career win rate leads every horse in this race — that's a horse who knows how to win. Trainer Kelly J. Breen and jockey Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a capable combination, and at double-digit odds this horse makes a lot of sense underneath in exactas and trifectas.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
A five-furlong maiden sprint on dirt with a field of first-time starters — no speed figures to lean on, so trainer patterns and morning-line support do the heavy lifting in this one.
Final Minute comes in as the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and earns the top TrackWiz rating at 58.33 — a small but meaningful edge in a field where every horse is unproven. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends out both Final Minute and Tipsy Mojo today, and a two-horse stable entry often signals confidence. Edwin Gonzalez is a dependable hand in the irons, and in a first-time-starter sprint, gate sharpness and jockey experience matter enormously.
Even Up profiles as the most logical alternative at 3/1, backed by a 56.67 rating and the support of trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. takes the mount, giving Even Up a journeyman rider who knows how to handle green horses in short sprints. At a price just slightly above the favorite, Even Up is the natural place horse for anyone building maiden exotic tickets.
Third Bite at 7/2 rounds out our top three with a 55.83 rating and trainer Robert E. Reid, Jr., who has experience developing young horses at Monmouth. Abner Adorno gets the assignment, and in a compact five-furlong sprint where trips can be chaotic, having a horse with decent gate position and a capable rider creates real show upside. Solid underneath play for trifecta coverage.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A turf maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs with a nine-horse field, a well-separated top two in the ratings, and genuine complexity — the morning-line favorite (Amberjack, 9/5) doesn't crack our top three, setting up a potential overlay situation.
Souper Document owns the field's top rating at 76.74 and comes in at a fair 5/2 morning line, giving trainer Juan Carlos Avila a strong contender on the Monmouth turf. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the reins, a jockey who knows this circuit well. The 11-point rating gap over the third-ranked horse in this field is significant, and in a first-time-out turf maiden race where figures can be hard to read, that cushion inspires confidence.
Landing Force checks in as a live overlay at 6/1 on the morning line despite a 68.17 rating that ranks second in the field. Trainer Tony Wilson conditions both Landing Force and Beach Beamer today, but it's the #2 who earns the higher rating by a comfortable margin. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. rides, and at morning-line 6/1 this horse could easily outrun the odds — strong place play.
Ghostwriter at 3/1 rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 65.62 rating and the experience of Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. in the saddle for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias. An average speed figure of 54 on turf suggests the horse has worked on the surface and knows what it's doing. At a manageable price, Ghostwriter makes sense as the third wheel in trifecta combinations.
Our three free best bets span all three early races and cover both surfaces. On the turf, Tok Tok jumps out in Race 1 — a claiming route at 1 1/16 miles where our rating of 82.71 makes this horse look like a legitimate overlay at a 6/1 morning line. Grass routing angles are worth noting early in a card, especially when the turf is playing true. In Race 3, Souper Document draws our attention in a 5½-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, posting a TrackWiz rating of 76.74 at an accessible 5/2 morning line.
Sandwiched between them in Race 2 is Final Minute, our top choice in a 5-furlong maiden sprint on the dirt. Maiden races are inherently unpredictable — these are horses still looking for their first win — but a 2/1 favorite with a 58.33 rating suggests the market has this one right. Use these three as a foundation before diving into the premium analysis for the back half of the card.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: the turf is the story today at Monmouth. Tok Tok is our free-card value standout at 6/1, Two's a Crowd is the highest-rated horse on the entire card, and the back half of the card offers serious multi-race ticket potential. Our free picks give you a running start — subscribers get everything else. Good luck out there, and enjoy the afternoon at the Shore.