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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

June 28, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on June 28, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, June 28, 2026

Race 18Tok TokML 6/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a beautiful Sunday at the Jersey Shore — partly cloudy skies, a pleasant 75°F, and eight races on the Monmouth Park card to keep you busy all afternoon. Conditions are about as good as it gets for a summer meet, and with the turf courses almost certainly playing fair, the grass races figure to be wide open and competitive.

Four of today's eight races take place on the turf, and the mix of maiden special weight sprints, claiming events, and a starter handicap gives bettors plenty of angles to attack. Whether you're grinding exotics or just looking for a couple of solid win plays, today's card has something for everyone.

TrackWiz has broken down all eight races, with our top picks rated on a 100-point scale. Three races are available free to all readers — the rest are unlocked for subscribers who want the full picture before post time.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A turf claiming mile that splits into two clear tiers — the top three in TrackWiz ratings are separated by a significant gap from the rest of the field, but the morning line tells a different story with the favorite sitting fourth in our ratings.

win8Tok TokML 6/1

Tok Tok tops our ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line, which is where the value lives in this spot. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Derek S. Ryan, and with a 23% career win rate, this horse has shown an ability to get the job done at a solid clip. That rating gap over the morning-line favorite Fidelightcayut is meaningful at 1 1/16 miles on turf, where class and consistency tend to sort things out late.

place7FidelightcayutML 9/5

Fidelightcayut draws the most wagering attention at 9/5 on the morning line, and that respect is partially earned — an 80.34 rating and a 29% career win rate are both strong figures. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila, who also saddles Tocayo, clearly has this barn rolling, and Angel Morales keeps the mount. The concern is the price; if Tok Tok fires, Fidelightcayut's backers may be getting the worst of it.

show5JurisprudenceML 10/1

Jurisprudence is the standout value play in the exotics at 10/1 on the morning line. That 75.18 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field and the 30% career win rate leads every horse in this race — that's a horse who knows how to win. Trainer Kelly J. Breen and jockey Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a capable combination, and at double-digit odds this horse makes a lot of sense underneath in exactas and trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A five-furlong maiden sprint on dirt with a field of first-time starters — no speed figures to lean on, so trainer patterns and morning-line support do the heavy lifting in this one.

win4Final MinuteML 2/1

Final Minute comes in as the morning-line second choice at 2/1 and earns the top TrackWiz rating at 58.33 — a small but meaningful edge in a field where every horse is unproven. Trainer Jorge Delgado sends out both Final Minute and Tipsy Mojo today, and a two-horse stable entry often signals confidence. Edwin Gonzalez is a dependable hand in the irons, and in a first-time-starter sprint, gate sharpness and jockey experience matter enormously.

place2Even UpML 3/1

Even Up profiles as the most logical alternative at 3/1, backed by a 56.67 rating and the support of trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. takes the mount, giving Even Up a journeyman rider who knows how to handle green horses in short sprints. At a price just slightly above the favorite, Even Up is the natural place horse for anyone building maiden exotic tickets.

show5Third BiteML 7/2

Third Bite at 7/2 rounds out our top three with a 55.83 rating and trainer Robert E. Reid, Jr., who has experience developing young horses at Monmouth. Abner Adorno gets the assignment, and in a compact five-furlong sprint where trips can be chaotic, having a horse with decent gate position and a capable rider creates real show upside. Solid underneath play for trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free best bets span all three early races and cover both surfaces. On the turf, Tok Tok jumps out in Race 1 — a claiming route at 1 1/16 miles where our rating of 82.71 makes this horse look like a legitimate overlay at a 6/1 morning line. Grass routing angles are worth noting early in a card, especially when the turf is playing true. In Race 3, Souper Document draws our attention in a 5½-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, posting a TrackWiz rating of 76.74 at an accessible 5/2 morning line.

Sandwiched between them in Race 2 is Final Minute, our top choice in a 5-furlong maiden sprint on the dirt. Maiden races are inherently unpredictable — these are horses still looking for their first win — but a 2/1 favorite with a 58.33 rating suggests the market has this one right. Use these three as a foundation before diving into the premium analysis for the back half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:58 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs with a nine-horse field, a well-separated top two in the ratings, and genuine complexity — the morning-line favorite (Amberjack, 9/5) doesn't crack our top three, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win5Souper DocumentML 5/2

Souper Document owns the field's top rating at 76.74 and comes in at a fair 5/2 morning line, giving trainer Juan Carlos Avila a strong contender on the Monmouth turf. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. takes the reins, a jockey who knows this circuit well. The 11-point rating gap over the third-ranked horse in this field is significant, and in a first-time-out turf maiden race where figures can be hard to read, that cushion inspires confidence.

place2Landing ForceML 6/1

Landing Force checks in as a live overlay at 6/1 on the morning line despite a 68.17 rating that ranks second in the field. Trainer Tony Wilson conditions both Landing Force and Beach Beamer today, but it's the #2 who earns the higher rating by a comfortable margin. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. rides, and at morning-line 6/1 this horse could easily outrun the odds — strong place play.

show6GhostwriterML 3/1

Ghostwriter at 3/1 rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 65.62 rating and the experience of Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. in the saddle for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias. An average speed figure of 54 on turf suggests the horse has worked on the surface and knows what it's doing. At a manageable price, Ghostwriter makes sense as the third wheel in trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

2:31 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

This five-furlong maiden sprint on dirt is locked up between two horses — Everything Changes and Witchy Vibes hold a real ratings edge over the rest of the field, and the top-four in our model are tightly bunched, making exacta and trifecta sequencing the real play here.

win6Everything ChangesML 2/1

Everything Changes earns the top TrackWiz rating at 58.33 and draws the most morning-line support at 2/1, making this horse both our top-rated and the crowd's choice. Edwin Gonzalez pilots for trainer Jorge Delgado, a barn that also sends out Tok Tok earlier in the card — they come to the track to compete. In a maiden sprint where none of these horses have a race record, the combination of rating leadership and public confidence is hard to fade.

place2Witchy VibesML 5/2

Witchy Vibes sits just 0.83 rating points behind our top pick at 57.50, practically a dead heat on paper — this race is legitimately close at the top. Trainer John C. Servis is one of the more accomplished horsemen on the Monmouth circuit, and Frankie Pennington gets the assignment at 5/2 on the morning line. The razor-thin margin between first and second in our model suggests this one absolutely belongs in your exotic coverage.

show1Quality SpringML 7/2

Quality Spring at 7/2 on the morning line holds a 55.83 rating and gives trainer Jose H. Delgado two shots in this race alongside Golden Athaliah. Kendry Rivera rides, and this horse profiles as the most likely third-place finisher if the top two do battle up front and set up a closer. A sensible show bet and a logical trifecta key underneath the top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

3:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite Identity Crisis (3/2) doesn't lead our ratings — Thunder Chuck at 4/1 does, by a notable margin — and that divergence between public money and model output is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz is designed to surface.

win8Thunder ChuckML 4/1

Thunder Chuck tops the field at an 85.62 rating while sitting at 4/1 on the morning line — that's a genuine overlay in a claiming turf sprint. Edwin Gonzalez rides for trainer Jorge Delgado, who already has Identity Crisis in this same race, suggesting the barn feels good about both. An average speed figure of 53 on turf is consistent, and in a pace scenario where multiple horses have higher average speeds to burn early, a closer profile at 4/1 has serious appeal.

place2Scottie Too HottieML 3/1

Scottie Too Hottie earns a 77.87 rating — second-best in the field — and carries a 20% career win rate that ranks among the highest in this claiming field. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for trainer Victor Barboza, Jr., and the average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the race alongside Identity Crisis. This horse projects to be in the thick of it throughout and represents excellent place value at 3/1.

show1Identity CrisisML 3/2

Identity Crisis is the morning-line chalk at 3/2 and clearly gets a lot of public respect with a 14% career win rate and a field-best average speed figure of 56. Chantal Sutherland rides for Jorge Delgado, who also conditions Thunder Chuck, giving the barn excellent positioning in this race. Despite being our third choice behind two higher-rated horses, the speed and public confidence make Identity Crisis a safe show play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:37 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse maiden special weight at 6 furlongs on dirt, with two horses — St. Erling and Mystical Merlin — holding substantial rating advantages over the rest of a very deep field that includes several 30/1 shots.

win2St. ErlingML 5/1

St. Erling leads all 12 runners with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55, the second-highest in the field. Chantal Sutherland gets the mount for trainer Joan Milne, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this horse is priced as a legitimate contender without being overbet. In a maiden sprint where chaos at the gate is common, St. Erling's raw figures suggest an ability to overcome trouble and still fire a winning race.

place7Mystical MerlinML 4/1

Mystical Merlin is the most interesting horse on the board — a 82.28 rating sits second-best in the field, and trainer Chuck Spina slots in Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. at 4/1 morning line. An average speed of 54 is solid for this level, and with two Spina horses in the race (Mystical Merlin and U Dirty Dog), you can read the stable's confidence in the #7 from the jockey booking alone. Excellent place value.

show9Jersey's the BossML 5/1

Jersey's the Boss rounds out the top three at 75.61 on the TrackWiz scale, holding a meaningful rating edge over the lower half of this crowded field. Jomar Torres rides for trainer Rory K. Huston at 5/1 on the morning line, and an average speed of 54 keeps this horse in the conversation throughout. In a 12-horse maiden race where pace can get messy, having a horse with some gas and a competent jockey is a real asset for show tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

4:10 PM EDT

Starter Handicap · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The Starter Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth on turf shapes up as a two-horse top tier — Two's a Crowd and Admiral Mo dominate the ratings — but trainer Kelly J. Breen's dual entry of Into It and Admiral Mo adds a strategic wrinkle worth noting.

win6Two's a CrowdML 5/2

Two's a Crowd owns the field's top rating at 87.81, leads all starters with a 25% career win rate, and goes off at just 5/2 on the morning line — a favorite you can actually feel good about. Edwin Gonzalez rides for trainer Derek S. Ryan, a combination that connects in this race. The 9.46-point gap over the second-ranked Admiral Mo is meaningful at this distance, and on turf at 1 1/16 miles, seasoned horses who know how to win tend to do just that.

place9Admiral MoML 7/2

Admiral Mo is the most compelling secondary play on the card today — a 50% career win rate is eye-catching at any level, and the 78.35 rating slots in comfortably second in this field. Trainer Kelly J. Breen saddles both Admiral Mo and Into It, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. picks up this mount, which often signals the barn's confidence within a dual entry. At 7/2 with that kind of win percentage, Admiral Mo is legitimately capable of upsetting the top choice.

show5Into ItML 7/2

Into It at 7/2 earns a 72.24 rating and a 20% career win rate — two figures that hold up well in a nine-horse Starter Handicap field. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. also rides this one for Kelly J. Breen, which creates an interesting dynamic since Breen saddles Admiral Mo in the same race. Into It is the "other" Breen horse, but the numbers are solid enough that show coverage is absolutely warranted.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Clay Soldier stands alone at the top of a sprawling 10-horse turf claiming field, posting an average speed of 58 — a number that clears the rest of the field by at least a point — and the TrackWiz rating gap between the top pick and the rest of the field makes this one of the cleaner betting races on the card.

win6Clay SoldierML 7/2

Clay Soldier leads this field decisively with an 86.35 rating and an average speed figure of 58 — that speed number is two full points clear of the next-best horses (Tap It Up at 57 and Sadie Baby at 55), which on a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint is a substantial advantage. Edwin Gonzalez picks up the mount for trainer Michael V. Simone, who also sends out Beautiful Bolt, suggesting the barn is confident in the 6's chances. A 13% career win rate in claiming company is consistent, and at 7/2, this horse represents the best combination of model confidence and fair odds on the afternoon.

place9Tap It UpML 3/1

Tap It Up comes in second in our ratings at 77.66 with a 3/1 morning line that reflects genuine public respect. An 18% career win rate is among the strongest in this field, and an average speed of 57 keeps Tap It Up right in the mix with Clay Soldier in terms of raw pace. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides for trainer James T. Ryerson, and this horse projects as the most logical threat to the top pick — prime place coverage.

show8Princess GladysML 4/1

Princess Gladys holds a 73.33 rating and brings a field-competitive 17% career win rate into this 10-horse field at 4/1. Francisco Martinez rides for trainer Michael Dini, and the average speed of 54 puts this horse in a competitive cluster with several mid-field runners. What separates Princess Gladys in the show conversation is that combination of win-rate consistency and a fair price — solid trifecta piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: the turf is the story today at Monmouth. Tok Tok is our free-card value standout at 6/1, Two's a Crowd is the highest-rated horse on the entire card, and the back half of the card offers serious multi-race ticket potential. Our free picks give you a running start — subscribers get everything else. Good luck out there, and enjoy the afternoon at the Shore.

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