Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026
We're heading to the Jersey Shore for a six-race Friday card at Monmouth Park, and the conditions are about as good as you can ask for in mid-July. Cloudy skies and 83°F means no baking sun to firm up that turf, which should keep the grass course playing fair and fast — good news for the two turf routes on the card today.
The card is a mix of maiden claimers and open claiming races spread across dirt and turf, ranging from a quick 5½-furlong sprint to a mile and 70 yards. There's no Grade-level glamour here, but that's where sharp handicapping pays off — these claiming ranks are full of horses with complicated form, and untangling pace scenarios and class levels is exactly where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.
Our top ratings are clustered tightly at the top, with Howler and Bee N Dee both clocking in at 89.12 on the TrackWiz model — the two highest scores on the card. When two horses post identical top ratings on the same day, it tells you something about the overall quality of the card: it's competitive, it's beatable, and the value is out there if you know where to look.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A wide-open maiden claimer on the Monmouth turf, but one horse's TrackWiz rating towers over the field — the puzzle is whether the morning line reflects what the numbers are screaming.
Mind Boggling (#6) carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that is more than 28 points clear of the second-best horse in this field — that kind of separation in a maiden claimer is genuinely rare. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends him out with jockey Charlie Marquez, and while the 5/2 morning line makes him a co-second choice on paper, our model suggests he's severely undervalued relative to his peers. On a turf course at 1 1/16 miles, pace scenario will matter, and Mind Boggling's profile suggests enough tactical speed to avoid early trouble in a maiden field that figures to be unsettled.
Tiz Awesome (#8) grades out at 59.69, second-best among all starters, giving trainer Rory K. Huston a strong second string in this race alongside stablemate Thegangsallhere. Jefferson Skerrett gets the call here, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's real place value if Mind Boggling is bet down to near even money. In a maiden turf route, closers often pick up the pieces late, and Tiz Awesome's profile fits that role nicely.
Lucky Louisa (#2) shares a 58.33 rating with the show pick tier and goes postward as the 2/1 morning line favorite — suggesting the public will be behind her even as our model gives the edge to Mind Boggling. Trainer Lindsay Schultz hands the reins to Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., a rider who knows the Monmouth turf course well. In trifecta construction, she's a logical third piece given her public support and solid overall rating in what amounts to a full, evenly matched middle tier.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
This 6-furlong dirt claimer has a clear top two in the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a pace duel between a dominant favorite and a very live second choice — the question is whether anything else can crash the party.
Howler (#4) posts an 89.12 TrackWiz rating, highest in the field, and backs it up with a career win rate of 20% — well above the field average. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch is a dangerous conditioner at this level, and jockey Charlie Marquez gives this a strong pilot combination. At 8/5 on the morning line, Howler is rightly favored, and over 6 furlongs on the dirt the pace scenario should suit a horse with his raw speed numbers.
One Fine Wine (#6) is no pushover here, grading out at 83.68 — only 5.44 points behind the top horse in a field where most are bunched in the 50s. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney puts Edwin Gonzalez up, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's legit win upside here, not just place value. A 10% career win rate on a relatively short career line is a touch soft, but the raw rating suggests she's capable of reversing the morning line order if Howler has an off day.
Molly's a Bullet (#3) gives trainer Anthony R. Margotta, Jr. a second entry in this race alongside She's a Bombshell, and it's Molly who clearly holds the stronger hand at a 55.78 rating. The 4/1 morning line price is workable, and her average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the entire field — meaning she's shown she can produce big numbers on her best day. In exacta and trifecta tickets, she's a must-use underneath.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
One horse stands well above the rest in this maiden claiming sprint, making the win spot look locked up — the real betting interest is in sorting out who joins Royal Merit in the exacta.
Royal Merit (#2) owns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating in a field where no other horse clears 58 — that's a 31-point advantage over the second-best horse, which is about as lopsided as you'll see in a maiden claimer. Trainer Michael Dini puts Francisco Martinez aboard, a solid local combination at Monmouth. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, Royal Merit's average speed of 54 is competitive, and the 9/5 morning line price might actually be beatable if the horse runs to his number.
Jersey's the Boss (#3) sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 57.05 and draws trainer Rory K. Huston, who already has two horses firing in today's card. Jose C. Ferrer gets the mount, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's solid place value here if you're trying to beat the favorite in the exacta. In a maiden sprint, pace position matters, and Jersey's the Boss looks capable of tracking and finishing.
Re Election (#4) rates third in the field at 55.83 and is a Cathal A. Lynch trainee with Charlie Marquez up — a combination that has shown up with live horses all day on this card. The 7/2 morning line price is fair, and while the TrackWiz model flags no available speed figure for this horse, Lynch's barn is clearly bringing fit horses to the post today. Include Re Election underneath in trifectas as a capable third-place finisher.
The first three races are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today, and they cover a nice spread of conditions. We open on the turf with Mind Boggling (5/2 morning line, 87.81 rating) in a 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer — a distance that should suit closers if the pace scenario sets up the way we're projecting. Race 2 flips us over to the dirt for a six-furlong sprint, where Howler (8/5, 89.12) carries our highest free-race rating and looks like the class of the field. Race 3 is a 5½-furlong maiden claimer on dirt, and Royal Merit (9/5, 88.83) is a strong top choice in what figures to be a speed-heavy affair — watch the early fractions here, because horses who go out too fast on this surface have a way of coming back to the field.
One angle worth noting across the free races: two of the three are on the shorter side of the distance spectrum, which tends to reward horses with clean speed numbers and reliable early position. If there's any bias developing on the Monmouth dirt today, it'll show up in Race 2 and Race 3 — keep an eye on how the front-runners hold up in Race 2, and it'll tell you a lot about whether to lean on speed or pace-pressers in Race 3.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Six races, two surfaces, and a pair of horses sharing the day's top rating — Friday at Monmouth Park is a grinder's card with real opportunity baked in. Start with Howler in Race 2 as the top free-card play, keep an eye on Royal Merit in Race 3 if the pace sets up right, and let Bee N Dee anchor your premium ticket in the nightcap. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns for the complete six-race card are waiting for TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.