Daily Picks

Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

Sunday, May 24, 20268 racesMonmouth Park

It's a wet one at Monmouth Park today. Rain has rolled in and temperatures are sitting around 60°F, which means the dirt is going to be playing differently than what you've seen on a dry week — expect the surface to favor horses that can get out and establish position early before the track tires them out, or alternatively reward closers if it gets genuinely sloppy and sealed. Either way, footing is the first thing you need to factor in before you put a dollar down today.

We've got an eight-race card on tap, with three Claiming sprints to kick things off before we transition into some more interesting territory — a pair of turf routes, a Starter Allowance sprint, and a Maiden Special Weight on the grass. The turf races are the ones to watch closely: wet weather can force late scratches if the turf is deemed unraceable, and that can completely reshape the betting pools and pace dynamics. Keep an eye on any surface switches before you finalize tickets.

Top of the card, our TrackWiz ratings like Southern Lady (R1), Allons (R2), and Win Winnie Win (R3) in the opening claiming sprints, and premium subscribers get our full breakdown on Uncle's Gold, Unsolved Mystery, Clever Charlie, and more through Race 8. There's real value to be found on this rain-affected card if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming opener where the TrackWiz ratings create a clear top tier — but the morning line favorite isn't the one our numbers like best, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win5Southern LadyML 7/2

Southern Lady carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and backs it up with a strong 33% career win rate — that's best in the field by a wide margin. Sonny Leon gets the call, and this horse has the kind of consistent speed figures (averaging 54) that should translate well over Monmouth's six-furlong dirt. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's not a lock to go off at value, but the rating gap over the chalk is significant enough that she's our clear top selection here.

place3Mya PapayaML 7/5

Mya Papaya opens as the 7/5 morning line favorite under Paco Lopez for the Kelly Breen barn, and a 25% career win rate justifies the crowd's attention. She matches Southern Lady's average speed figure of 54, and Breen is a consistent performer at Monmouth. The concern is whether the public will hammer her below fair odds — if you're playing exotics, she's a safe underneath horse.

show1Blue Moon TideML 5/1

Blue Moon Tide at 5/1 is worth including in the exotics with a TrackWiz rating of 66.17 — third-best in the field. The 12% career win rate isn't flashy, but the speed figure average of 54 puts her right in the mix pace-wise, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. has a live book of mounts today. At the price, she offers decent show parlay value.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Allons dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but Speightfulelection's edge in raw speed figures makes the pace scenario worth watching closely.

win5AllonsML 2/1

Allons tops this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and lands in a great spot under Sonny Leon for trainer Michael V. Pino. A 23% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and the horse's average speed figure of 54 is right in the pack — meaning he shouldn't be grinding through a pace battle to get there. The 2/1 morning line is fair, and the combination of top rating plus a quality rider makes this our strongest win pick of the early card.

place1SpeightfulelectionML 5/2

Speightfulelection draws the rail in the one-hole but brings the field's best average speed figure at 56 — that's a meaningful edge in a six-furlong sprint. Christian Maragh is up for trainer Devon Dougherty, and the 15% career win rate is respectable for this level. At 5/2, there's not a ton of place value, but the raw speed number suggests she can be involved late.

show6Beautiful BoltML 3/2

Beautiful Bolt is the 3/2 morning line chalk under Paco Lopez, but our analysis slots her third with a 63.56 rating — below both Allons and Speightfulelection. Kelly Breen is tough to dismiss, and a 13% win rate isn't alarming at this level. She's likely going to be over-bet, but as a show hedge in multi-race wagers she's reasonable.

Race 3

5:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Win Winnie Win owns the top rating in a tight six-furlong field, but No Denying's unusual 100% career win rate — however it came — will draw curious eyes from the public.

win6Win Winnie WinML 5/2

Win Winnie Win rates out as the class of this field at 87.01 on the TrackWiz scale and gets the Paco Lopez treatment from post six for trainer Juan Carlos Avila. The 5/2 morning line is workable, and a steady average speed figure of 54 puts her in good stead for this distance. Notably, she's one of two Avila horses in the race, which suggests the trainer has a good read on conditions — and Paco Lopez riding her over the stablemate is a subtle but meaningful signal.

place1My Man MoneyML 7/2

My Man Money draws the rail under Sonny Leon for Timothy A. Hills, and a 67.87 rating gives him a clear second-best standing in the field. The 14% career win rate is modest, but this horse has been running back in average speed figures of 54, which is competitive here. Leon has been active at Monmouth and has shown he can get a pace horse out of trouble from the one-hole.

show4Essentially FastML 7/2

Essentially Fast at 7/2 checks in with a 60.64 rating and gets Luis R. Rivera, Jr. in the irons for Wayne Potts. The 12% career win rate and average speed figure of 52 are a tick below the top pair, but in a six-horse field with legitimate pace up front, a closing-style horse can sneak into the exacta or trifecta picture. Worth including in tickets at this price.

The first three races share an identical format — six-furlong dirt Claiming sprints — and today's wet conditions tie them together with a common thread. Horses that have previously shown comfort on an off track get a meaningful edge in all three, and that's exactly the kind of angle our TrackWiz analysis leaned into when surfacing these top picks. Southern Lady opens the card at a workable 7/2 morning line with a rating of 86.35, and she's got the profile of a horse who won't be fazed by the conditions. Allons comes in as the morning-line favorite in Race 2 at 2/1 — a strong 88.54 rating backs up that confidence, though favorite backers should always keep an eye on the tote as post time approaches. Win Winnie Win closes out the free races in Race 3 at 5/2, rated 87.01 and sitting right in that sweet spot where the price still offers some value if the pool moves in your favor.

All three sprints figure to see front-end pressure given the short distance and competitive fields, so pace collapse is a live scenario — especially on a track that might be playing tiring. Horses with tactical speed rather than pure front-runners could be the formula in all three. These free picks give you a solid foundation to start the afternoon right.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Uncle's Gold opens as the even-money favorite on the turf and our ratings strongly back the chalk — but there's genuine upside in the underneath horses for those looking to beat the price.

win3Uncle's GoldML EVN

Uncle's Gold is the standout of Sunday's card through eight races, posting a perfect 90.00 TrackWiz rating alongside a remarkable 42% career win rate — both tops in this allowance optional claiming field by a wide margin. Paco Lopez gets the assignment for Michael J. Trombetta, a trainer who knows how to spot a horse on a turf course. The even-money morning line reflects genuine public respect, and on paper, the gap between this horse and the field is substantial enough to warrant playing confidently.

place7Mr. PapagiorgioML 7/2

Mr. Papagiorgio brings a 73.14 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — both second-best in the field — for trainer Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. at 7/2. He matches up well on speed figures (averaging 53) and should have no trouble with the 1 1/16-mile turf distance. As a place play underneath the heavy favorite, he represents fair value in exacta construction.

show4Westside TideML 3/1

Westside Tide carries the field's highest average speed figure at 56 and a solid 18% career win rate for the David Jacobson barn. Jose Antonio Gomez gets the call, and at 3/1, this horse figures to be prominent early on the front end. If the pace unfolds honestly, Westside Tide could easily hit the board and reward trifecta players who use him underneath Uncle's Gold.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Unsolved Mystery looks like the class of this starter allowance field and comes in as both the morning line favorite and the TrackWiz top pick — a rare alignment that strengthens the case.

win6Unsolved MysteryML 8/5

Unsolved Mystery leads all starters with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating, a 32% career win rate, and the field's joint-best average speed figure of 55. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Luis Rivera, Jr., and this horse appears to be sitting on a big effort in a starter allowance that fits perfectly. At 8/5, the morning line reflects legitimate favoritism — this looks like a horse the public will have right, and our numbers agree.

place3La GrotteML 4/1

La Grotte comes in at 4/1 for trainer J. Tyler Servis with a 66.17 rating — second-best in the field — and Servis is the kind of conditioner who wins spots like this. The 14% career win rate and 53 average speed figure suggest a horse that won't light up the board on top but can sneak into the exacta at a fair price. Luis M. Ocasio takes the ride, and the 4/1 morning line offers genuine place value.

show5D' tiger LilyML 5/1

D' tiger Lily rates third in the field at 63.09 with a 16% career win rate and an above-average speed figure of 55. Christian Maragh is a capable hand on this surface, and trainer Tony Wilson keeps the horse competitive at this level. At 5/1, including her in trifecta tickets underneath the top two makes a lot of sense.

Race 6

7:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden special weight mile on the turf where nobody in the field has ever won — making TrackWiz ratings and trainer reputation the primary tools for separating contenders.

win1Clever CharlieML 9/2

Clever Charlie owns the field's highest TrackWiz rating by a clear margin at 84.90, despite carrying 0% career wins like every other horse in this maiden field. The Kelly Breen barn is a consistent presence in New Jersey maiden company, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. handles the mount from the rail. The 9/2 morning line actually gives you a slight overlay relative to the rating edge here — this is our best value play in the maiden race.

place8Navesink PirateML 6/1

Navesink Pirate rates second in the field at 65.95 for trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. with Christian Maragh aboard at 6/1. In a first-level maiden turf race where maiden speed figures can be tricky to read, a horse with the second-best rating at a double-digit morning line price is exactly the type to key in your exactas. The name alone — a nod to the Jersey Shore — gives this horse some local character.

show6AzarioML 2/1

Azario opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite under Paco Lopez for trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez, but the 58.33 TrackWiz rating slots him third — behind Clever Charlie and Navesink Pirate by meaningful margins. Lopez's presence will drive action, and the trainer is active at the meet. He's a necessary inclusion in show and trifecta bets, but the public price may not offer value on top.

Race 7

7:56 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The TrackWiz ratings tell an interesting story in this allowance optional claiming mile — the top two rated horses are not the morning line favorite, setting up a potential value scenario.

win1Double Your MoneyML 5/2

Double Your Money posts an 82.25 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, making him our top selection at 5/2 for trainer Benjamin J. Dunn. Melvis Gonzalez takes the mount from the rail, and this horse's average speed figure of 52 is par for this field. The combination of top rating and a fair morning line price makes him the most appealing win play on the card at this level.

place6Prince ColtonML 8/1

Prince Colton is our value play of the race at 8/1 — the second-highest rating in the field at 79.79 with a 16% career win rate for trainer John T. Kirby. Julio A. Hernandez gets the mount from post six, and the horse's average speed figure of 53 is a tick above several rivals. A horse rated this highly at 8/1 is exactly the kind of underneath play that pays off in exactas — if the public loads up on House United or Tacticality, Prince Colton could return excellent value.

show4House UnitedML 2/1

House United is the 2/1 morning line choice under Paco Lopez for David Jacobson, which commands attention. The 70.34 rating and 13% career win rate are respectable, and Jacobson-Lopez is a productive combination at Monmouth. Our ratings put him third, so the show position is appropriate — he figures to be around at the finish even if he can't get past our top two.

Race 8

8:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Kathleen O'Connell sends out two horses in this eleven-horse turf claimer, and both top the TrackWiz ratings — making barn management and jockey booking the key angles to untangle.

win6More Vino RosaML 6/1

More Vino Rosa edges out her stablemate by a hair at 82.71 on the TrackWiz scale and gets the nod as our win pick, with Sonny Leon in the irons — the same rider who handles both O'Connell runners. A 16% career win rate matches the stablemate exactly, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with the pace demands of a 1 1/16-mile turf claimer. At 6/1 morning line, she's the larger overlay of the two O'Connell horses, which is the core of the value case here.

place10My Lil FlirtML 4/1

My Lil Flirt is separated from More Vino Rosa by just 0.09 TrackWiz rating points at 82.62, and she opens at the slightly tighter 4/1 morning line. Also trained by O'Connell with identical career stats, she mirrors the win pick almost exactly — but the shorter price makes her better suited as a place play in the exacta than a standalone win bet. The O'Connell-Leon combination is clearly live in this race, whichever half of the stable fires.

show3Bee N DeeML 5/1

Bee N Dee at 5/1 rates third in this large field at 65.63 for trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez with Charlie Marquez up. A 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 52 put her right in the mix, and in a wide-open eleven-horse field on turf, value players can find nice prices in the trifecta third slot. She's the logical show include outside the O'Connell runners.

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Bottom line: today's rain-soaked Monmouth card rewards preparation. Southern Lady, Allons, and Win Winnie Win are your free best bets to get started — three dirt sprints where our ratings and the off-track angle align nicely. For the full card including pace projections, exotic strategies, and our takes on Uncle's Gold, Unsolved Mystery, Clever Charlie, Double Your Money, and More Vino Rosa, full analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Check out /pricing to unlock the complete breakdown before the first race goes off. Good luck out there — and stay dry.

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