Daily Picks

Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — May 23, 2026

Saturday, May 23, 20268 racesMonmouth Park

Welcome to Monmouth Park on May 23rd, 2026 — and Mother Nature is not cooperating. Rain is falling and temperatures are sitting at a chilly 56°F, which means the dirt strip is going to be a factor all day long. Wet-track form, early pace adaptability, and horses that have previously handled off conditions will carry extra weight in our analysis today.

We've got an 8-race card to work through, mixing claiming races, maiden special weight events, and allowance company across both dirt and turf. Speaking of turf — keep an eye on how the going is officially rated. If the turf course gets too soft, we could see scratches and surface switches that shake up the fields entirely.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, with five more locked behind our premium tier. Whether you're playing a quick pick-two or building a full-card exotic ticket, we've got you covered top to bottom.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight claiming opener on the dirt where the two morning-line co-favorites both carry TrackWiz's top ratings — this one shapes up as a two-horse battle with a live price lurking underneath.

win6Gold StampML 5/2

Gold Stamp earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81, narrowly edging stablemate Princess Gladys and Pat'schromecompass to claim the top spot. Trainer Michael Dini saddles two horses in this race, which can be a polarizing angle, but Gold Stamp's 14% career win rate is the best among the contenders we're siding with. At 5/2 on the morning line, this isn't a bomb, but the rating separation between Gold Stamp and the rest of the field is real. Francisco Martinez gets the call and should have this horse in a prime spot stalking pace.

place2Pat'schromecompassML 5/2

Pat'schromecompass comes in at 82.86 on the TrackWiz scale — second-best in the field — with Sonny Leon aboard, one of the sharpest pilots in the Mid-Atlantic. The 5/2 morning line matches the win pick, so there's no overlay here, but the consistency of this horse's profile makes it a logical exotics anchor. An 11% career win rate on a horse with this rating suggests some hard-luck finishes that could flip to a placing today.

show4Princess GladysML 2/1

Princess Gladys is the public's top choice at 2/1 and gets the services of Paco Lopez, who is tough to dismiss at any track. Trainer Michael Dini clearly liked what he saw in both his entries, and Princess Gladys's 69.14 rating — while below Gold Stamp — is strong enough to hit the board in a six-horse field. She's a solid show anchor for trifecta players who want to cover the chalk.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Hall of Fame trainer Claude McGaughey III doubles up in a turf maiden route, and his pair of first-time starters commands attention — but Paris Carver's morning-line favoritism at 6/5 will compress payouts and sets up a potential overlay situation for the McGaughey duo.

win3Mid SummerML 9/2

Mid Summer leads all horses in this nine-horse maiden field with a 84.90 TrackWiz rating despite being bet down to 9/2 on the morning line — generous odds when you consider the source. Saddled by the legendary Claude McGaughey III, whose operation consistently produces well-prepared debut runners, Mid Summer also benefits from Sonny Leon in the irons. In turf maiden special weight company, trainer pedigree and preparation matter enormously since we have no past performances to lean on, and McGaughey's reputation on grass is elite.

place9TejanitaML 7/2

Tejanita is the second McGaughey/Leon entry in this same race, which is an unusual but not unheard-of arrangement from a deep barn. At 7/2 on the morning line and a 73.80 TrackWiz rating, she's a legitimate threat to hit the board even if stablemate Mid Summer fires. Horsemen sometimes enter two to improve their post position draw or because they genuinely aren't sure which will fire first — either way, both land in our exotic plays for Race 2.

show4OlatzML 7/2

Olatz lands third on the TrackWiz leaderboard at 64.38 and is trained by Lindsay Schultz, who also saddles Paynterpretty in this field. Jorge A. Vargas Jr. rides, and he's been a consistent performer at Monmouth. For exotic players building trifecta boxes in a maiden turf route full of unknowns, Olatz at 7/2 on the morning line represents fair value as a third-place target.

Race 3

5:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Duck Duck Goose's eye-popping 40% career win rate steals the eye, but Christmas Spirit's superior TrackWiz rating sets up a classic handicapper's dilemma — raw form versus overall rating — in a dirt route claiming race with several live contenders.

win6Christmas SpiritML 7/2

Christmas Spirit sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with an 86.35 score — the biggest gap over the second-best horse in this field (Duck Duck Goose at 66.98) of any race on the card. Michael J. Trombetta ships in with a horse that clearly profiles better than the competition on our model, and Sonny Leon gives the mount instant credibility. The 7/2 morning line feels fair-to-generous given that rating cushion, and in a 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer with this kind of edge, Christmas Spirit is our confident top selection.

place1Duck Duck GooseML 3/1

Duck Duck Goose owns the most remarkable career stat in today's entire Monmouth card — a 40% career win rate that jumps off the page. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is a quality conditioner, and Paco Lopez in the irons gives this horse every chance. Even with a TrackWiz rating of 66.98 that trails the top pick by nearly 20 points, a horse who wins four out of every ten starts demands inclusion in your exactas.

show4Enduring AngelML 7/2

Enduring Angel checks in with a 33% career win rate — second-best in this field — and a 66.25 TrackWiz rating that sits just a tick below Duck Duck Goose. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for Rudy R. Rodriguez, a trainer who knows how to spot his horses in winnable spots. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's no premium price here, but Enduring Angel's strong win percentage argues she consistently runs up to her number and should hit the board.

Our three free races today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a solid cross-section of the card. On the dirt, Gold Stamp (Race 1, 5/2 morning line) tops our board with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, and the wet dirt could actually suit a horse of this profile. In Race 3, Christmas Spirit (7/2 ML, rated 86.35) is another dirt router we like in the claiming ranks over a mile and a sixteenth. Both horses are worth watching closely in the post parade — how a horse moves to the gate in slick conditions can tell you a lot.

Race 2 is the wildcard of the free trio: a Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, where Mid Summer (9/2 ML, rated 84.90) is our top selection. If the turf course holds up, this one sets up as an intriguing spot for a first-time winner. Maidens on turf in questionable weather can be chaotic — which is exactly why we like having a data-backed opinion rather than guessing blind.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

All the Luck's 85.62 TrackWiz rating towers over a closely bunched field of maiden claimers making the turf switch — this looks like a potential single in exotics for subscribers who like a clear class edge in maiden company.

win3All the LuckML 4/1

All the Luck carries an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that is nearly 27 points clear of the next-best horse in this field — that's an enormous gap in a seven-horse maiden claiming field on the turf. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney pairs with Sonny Leon, and the 4/1 morning line offers real value given how much our model separates this horse from the competition. In maiden claimers on the lawn, where class and preparation can matter more than in open maiden company, this kind of rating edge is hard to ignore. Our best bet in Race 4.

place7FratelloneML 7/2

Fratellone draws a double-duty spot for Paco Lopez, who also rides Restless Passion for the Dini barn, but Fratellone's 58.59 TrackWiz rating edges Restless Passion's 56.95 for second in our ratings. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila sends this horse out at 7/2, which is a fair price in a field where several runners are tightly grouped in the mid-50s. If All the Luck dominates as expected, Fratellone looks like a logical second for exacta coverage.

show4Beck's DreamerML 5/2

Beck's Dreamer comes in at 58.13 on the TrackWiz scale — right in the thick of the mid-field cluster — for trainer Wayne Potts, who has a second entry in today's card showing his barn is live at Monmouth. Luis R. Rivera Jr. gets the mount and should be able to place this horse favorably in a route on the grass. At 5/2 on the morning line, Beck's Dreamer is almost certainly going to be bet down further, but the board price and rating make it a reasonable trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

6:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Popthechampagne Ro's TrackWiz-best rating at 4/1 sets up as a potential value play against the odds-on public choice Thelastbulletsmine in a six-horse dirt sprint — the pace scenario with multiple speed types should create an honest early pace that suits a stalker.

win4Popthechampagne RoML 4/1

Popthechampagne Ro leads the Race 5 TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — notably higher than Thelastbulletsmine's 71.57, which figures to attract most of the public money at 9/5. A 21% career win rate is strong in a six-horse field, and trainer Howard R. Brown Jr. deploys Francisco Martinez in what shapes up as a pace-influenced six-furlong sprint. If the speed horses battle early, Popthechampagne Ro's profile suggests a horse who can pounce late. The 4/1 morning line is our kind of price when the rating edge is this clear.

place2ThelastbulletsmineML 9/5

Thelastbulletsmine is going to be heavily wagered at 9/5, and there's legitimate reason — Paco Lopez rides for Michael V. Simone, and the 12% career win rate pairs with a solid 71.57 TrackWiz rating. The case for including this horse in exactas and trifectas is straightforward: if the public is right and it fires, you want it underneath your top selection. A decent average speed of 54 in a field where several horses match that number means any pace edge matters today.

show5Magnolia WindML 5/2

Magnolia Wind checks in at 57.46 on the TrackWiz scale with a 12% career win rate — in line with Thelastbulletsmine, which also carries Simone's colors. Luis R. Rivera Jr. takes the mount from the outside post, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Magnolia Wind will likely be well-supported. She's a logical show play to round out trifecta combinations in a race that could sort itself out predictably if the pace scenario unfolds as projected.

Race 6

7:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Twelve runners make this one of the deepest and trickiest turf maiden fields on the card — the morning-line favorite at 3/1 doesn't top our ratings, creating an intriguing value scenario at the top of the TrackWiz model.

win11Point to That StarML 6/1

Point to That Star earns a 82.71 TrackWiz rating to lead our model in Race 6, yet checks in at 6/1 on the morning line — a significant mismatch that gets our attention immediately. Trainer Jose H. Delgado sends this horse out in a large maiden turf field where post position and trip luck matter, and Luis R. Rivera Jr. will need to find a clean path. The 12-horse field creates traffic risks, but when our model shows a clear top horse at a price well above the morning-line favorite, that's a value play worth leaning into hard.

place9Garden GalML 3/1

Garden Gal is the 3/1 morning-line choice and gets Paco Lopez, which alone explains most of the public money. Trainer Joan Milne has this filly at 80.70 on the TrackWiz scale — second in the field — and the combo of a top jockey and a sharp rating makes Garden Gal a must-include in all exotic plays. Even if the public is right and she wins, being underneath our top pick at 3/1 means the exacta could still pay respectably.

show4OmahamoiselleML 5/1

Omahamoiselle earns a 79.22 TrackWiz rating and draws Jomar Torres for trainer Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. at 5/1 on the morning line. The rating is tightly packed among the top four in this field — Garden Gal, Life Raft, and Point to That Star are all within about four points — which tells you this race could genuinely be run multiple ways. Omahamoiselle at 5/1 is a fair price to land third in a wide-open maiden turf route, and she rounds out a strong trifecta combination.

Race 7

7:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Canuto enters as a heavy 7/5 favorite with the top TrackWiz rating in the field, but Mambrino's 28% career win rate and 87.08 rating make the exacta combination arguably the most compelling betting angle in this six-furlong dirt claimer.

win2CanutoML 7/5

Canuto's 88.94 TrackWiz rating is the best in Race 7 and frankly among the best on the entire card today, and the 7/5 morning line reflects how clearly the public agrees. Trainer Jorge Delgado puts Chantal Sutherland aboard, and the 20% career win rate is consistent with a horse who shows up ready. The average speed figure of 56 leads this field by a full point over the next-best horses, suggesting Canuto has genuine tactical speed that could control this race from the front or just off it. Play this horse to win, but don't expect a huge price.

place6MambrinoML 3/1

Mambrino at 3/1 is one of the more compelling place plays on today's Monmouth card — a 28% career win rate is exceptional, and the 87.08 TrackWiz rating trails Canuto by less than two points. Trainer Wayne Potts deploys Paco Lopez, who is rarely handed a horse without a genuine shot. If Canuto gets beat, Mambrino is the most likely culprit, and if Canuto wins as expected, Mambrino's profile strongly suggests a runner-up finish. A quality exacta anchored by this pair makes strong sense.

show7Zhu DaddyML 6/1

Zhu Daddy drifts in at 6/1 on the morning line with a 68.97 TrackWiz rating — well below the top two but notably above the rest of this seven-horse field. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila has been active in today's card, and Angel Morales gets the call here. With a 5% career win rate that understates what the rating suggests, Zhu Daddy may be a horse whose best performances haven't always turned into wins — but a board finish in a competitive sprint claimer is a realistic expectation. A good trifecta underneath piece at a fair price.

Race 8

8:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The public's big 4/5 favorite Pivotal Moment doesn't lead the TrackWiz ratings in this 11-horse turf allowance sprint — Carnaby's 79.79 rating and 8/1 price makes this one of the best value opportunities on the entire Monmouth card today.

win11CarnabyML 8/1

Carnaby tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 8 at 79.79 despite being offered at 8/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and our model is exactly what we look for in a value play. Trainer Felix L. Flores-Coba sends this horse out with Eliseo Ruiz in the irons in a competitive 11-horse turf sprint allowance. A 19% career win rate in allowance-level company speaks to a horse who belongs at this level, and the average speed figure of 56 is second-best in the field. This is our best value play of the day.

place4Beware of PrideML 15/1

Beware of Pride is an extraordinary price for a horse with a 26% career win rate — one of the best winning percentages in today's entire Monmouth card — and a 68.81 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Joann Bertone sends this one out at 15/1, which is a generous morning-line price that almost certainly means the public is sleeping on this horse's form cycle. Joezer Rangel gets the call, and while the setup looks like a longshot, the career win percentage demands respect. If this horse hits the board at that price, trifecta payouts should be substantial.

show9Thunder ChuckML 6/1

Thunder Chuck logs a 65.64 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate for trainer Jorge Delgado, with Paco Lopez doubling up across Races 8 and 9 today. At 6/1 on the morning line, Thunder Chuck is a fair price in an 11-horse field where the public money will likely compress around Pivotal Moment. Including Thunder Chuck in trifecta combinations provides a reasonable hedge if the Carnaby/Beware of Pride value tickets need a closer to complete the payoff.

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A wet, cool day at Monmouth sets up for some genuine surprises — and that's when having sharp, data-driven analysis matters most. Start with Gold Stamp in Race 1, keep tabs on the turf conditions heading into Race 2, and let Christmas Spirit round out your early card. For the full 8-race breakdown — including pace projections, exotic structures, and our take on short-priced favorite Canuto — subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and make every race count. Good luck out there today.

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