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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026

Saturday, June 20, 20269 racesLos Alamitos Thoroughbred

Clear skies, 72°F, and a fast Los Alamitos strip — that's about as close to ideal conditions as Southern California gives you, and today's nine-race Thursday card is ready to take full advantage. The compact layout at Los Al suits speed horses and front-runners, so expect early fractions to pop and closers to earn every inch of ground they pick up in the lane.

The card opens with a trio of maiden claiming sprints and routes before shifting into a run of claiming battles that should generate some real handicapping heat. Everything builds toward the Race 9 stakes finale, where Coach Cronin (9/5 ML, TrackWiz rating 88.83) looks like the headliner worth building your late sequence around.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today. The remaining six — including that stakes closer — are part of our premium full-card breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at five furlongs where TrackWiz ratings separate just a handful of horses from the pack — the top three in our model are clustered within three points of each other, making this more of a pace and connections puzzle than a standout pick.

win2Swift AppealML 2/1

Swift Appeal draws the rail-adjacent post and carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.33, which is the clearest edge available in a race where no horse has prior speed figures on the board. What really catches the eye is the connections: Joel Rosario is one of the sharpest jockeys in Southern California and trainer Peter Miller has a long track record of winning with first-time starters at short prices. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and this is a spot where trusting the class of the connections makes sense.

place7KeepsmesaneML 5/2

Keepsmesane comes in at a 57.5 TrackWiz rating — just a tick behind Swift Appeal — and the Doug O'Neill barn is always dangerous in maiden company. Kyle Frey takes the call, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's a reasonable case this horse runs second or better even if the favorite lives up to billing.

show6RomanticonML 4/1

Romanticon is our show play at 4/1 with a 55.0 rating, slotting in as the third-ranked horse in the field. Trainer Jorge Periban gives Armando Aguilar the mount, and in a race this evenly matched, any of the top three could swap positions at the wire — Romanticon's price makes it worth tossing into exotics.

Race 2

8:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A mile maiden claimer on dirt where one horse stands out head and shoulders on the TrackWiz model — but the public already knows it, so the value question is whether the second and third choices can make exotics interesting.

win5WhynotanotheroneML 7/5

Whynotanotherone is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 69.78 — more than 13 points clear of the next-best horse in the field. The 7/5 morning line confirms the public agrees, but when you factor in a solid average speed figure of 54 and trainer Robert B. Hess Jr. putting Armando Ayuso in the irons, this looks like a deserving favorite. At a mile, horses who have demonstrated any kind of stamina and consistency tend to separate from the field, and Whynotanotherone's profile checks those boxes.

place6Big ReflectionsML 3/1

Big Reflections pairs a 56.67 TrackWiz rating with a 54 average speed figure and gets Joel Rosario up for trainer Sean McCarthy — that's a live combination in any maiden race. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate place value here if the favorite gets into any trouble in a one-mile routing scenario.

show1CheML 2/1

Che sits third in our ratings at 49.71 and comes in with a 51 average speed figure, which is a notch below the top two but not without merit. The O'Neill-Frey combo has hit at this track before, and at 2/1, this horse is worth including underneath in exotics even though the morning line makes it an overlay to show rather than a bargain.

Race 3

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong maiden claimer has a genuine pace duel brewing between a public choice and a TrackWiz standout whose rating towers over the field — the horses at the top of our model are separated by nearly 26 points from the bottom, which is unusual clarity in maiden company.

win4SplitML 3/1

Split is the TrackWiz top pick here and it's not especially close — an 87.08 rating leads the field, backed by a 54 average speed figure and the Joel Rosario-Tim Yakteen combination that always demands respect. Yakteen has a knack for placing horses in spots where they can win, and Rosario rarely takes a bad call. The 3/1 morning line is slightly generous given how far ahead of the field this horse grades, making it a genuine best bet candidate on the card.

place2Song and DanceML 5/1

Song and Dance is the sneaky play here — an 80.5 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the race, and the 5/1 morning line from handicappers suggests the public may be underrating this one. Edgar Payeras has been a steady hand at Los Alamitos and trainer Ruben Gomez is plugged into this circuit. If Split hits any pace trouble, Song and Dance looks like the most likely beneficiary.

show6Dats Ms. BlameML 2/1

Dats Ms. Blame gets the 2/1 morning line favorite nod from the oddsmakers, but our ratings rank her third at 61.19 — a full 26 points behind Split. That said, Doug O'Neill's barn has the tools to get a horse ready, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive. She's worth including as a show ticket or in exacta coverage, even if we don't see her as the top pick.

Our three free races today are all maiden claiming affairs, and on a surface this quick, first-time starters and recent workout bullets deserve extra attention. Split in Race 3 carries our highest rating among the free picks at 87.08 — that's a number that stands out in maiden company, and at 3/1 on the morning line there's legitimate value to be had if the pace scenario sets up the way our models project. Whynotanotherone (Race 2, 7/5 ML) gets a route test that could sort the field early, while Swift Appeal (Race 1) kicks off the afternoon at 2/1 as our opener pick in the short five-furlong dash.

The connecting thread across these three? Speed and early position matter enormously at Los Alamitos, especially in maiden claiming company where fields can get strung out fast. Horses that can clear the first turn cleanly and settle into a rhythm have a structural edge here — and that shapes how we're rating each of these three plays.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the morning line and the TrackWiz model actually disagree — the public leans toward two horses near even-money, but our ratings point to a double-digit overlay as the best horse in the field, setting up potential value.

win1CrucibleML 6/1

Crucible is the TrackWiz top selection at 82.71 despite being a 6/1 morning line shot — and that gap between public price and model rating is exactly the kind of value angle worth highlighting. With a 33% career win rate, this horse wins races, and a 55 average speed figure matches up well against this field. Trainer Adan Farias sends out Edgar Payeras and at 5.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse with proven closing ability and that win rate is dangerous.

place7Smokem EzML 2/1

Smokem Ez carries a 79.39 TrackWiz rating and draws the outside post with Armando Aguilar up for trainer Martin Valenzuela Jr. The 2/1 morning line shows respect, but note the 15% career win rate — this horse finds the money more consistently than it wins outright, making it a natural place play in exotics.

show6RollinwithpolanML 7/5

Rollinwithpolan is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and brings a 50% career win rate — the strongest in the field — with a 55 average speed figure to match. Doug O'Neill and Kyle Frey are a sharp combination. Even though our model ranks this third in the race, that win rate can't be ignored, and it makes Rollinwithpolan a must-use in all multi-race wagers.

Race 5

10:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eight horses go in a claiming sprint and the TrackWiz model has a clear top choice sitting at 5/1 on the morning line — a horse our ratings rank more than 17 points ahead of the next challenger, suggesting the public may be sleeping on the real contender.

win8Running TigerML 5/1

Running Tiger tops the TrackWiz model at 84.17 — a significant margin over the field — but sits at 5/1 on the morning line, which is a rare combination worth circling on your program. Trainer Jesus Uranga sends this horse out with Ricardo Ramirez, and at 5.5 furlongs on dirt, an 18% career win rate in a claiming field like this is workable. When our model and the price both say value, that's the best-bet formula.

place6The Key Is UnityML 4/1

The Key Is Unity rates second in our model at 66.84 and gets Francisco Orduna-Rojas for trainer Oscar Heredia. The 4/1 morning line is fair, though the 5% career win rate is a caution flag — this horse may be more of a place/show type by nature, which actually makes it an ideal spot in the second slot on your exacta tickets.

show5RasslerML 4/1

Rassler comes in with a 62.91 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate — among the better win percentages in this field — for the Jesus Uranga barn with Armando Aguilar taking the mount. A 55 average speed figure is right in the mix, and Uranga having two horses in the same race is worth noting; stablemates can set up pace scenarios that benefit each other.

Race 6

10:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint for fillies and mares where the TrackWiz model has a clear top pick at a fair morning line, but three horses cluster between 63 and 70 in ratings — making the exacta and trifecta far more interesting than a straight win play.

win4Comanche GalML 4/1

Comanche Gal leads all horses in this race with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 20% career win rate — tied for best in the field. Edgar Payeras gets the call for trainer Vann Belvoir, and at 4/1, the morning line seems appropriately respectful without being an overlay. A 53 average speed figure is solid for this claiming level, and the combination of rating leadership and a proven jockey makes this our top selection.

place3Big CoinML 6/1

Big Coin rates second in our model at 69.73 for trainer Rafael DeLeon with Francisco Orduna-Rojas aboard. The 6/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse ranked second in the field — the 8% career win rate is on the lower end, but at this price, place value is what we're really chasing in exactas.

show5Sheza Gemini JewelML 12/1

Sheza Gemini Jewel is the value play of the race at 12/1 on the morning line with a 64.01 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. That's a significant price discrepancy for a horse who grades this competitively, and trainer Jose Raudales has Cesar Ortega up. At 11% career win rate, she doesn't win often, but sneaking in for a piece of the trifecta at 12/1 is absolutely worth the investment.

Race 7

11:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A five-furlong maiden claimer where the top of the model is remarkably tight — four horses are separated by fewer than ten points — and the morning line favorite is actually our top pick, which doesn't always happen in maiden company.

win6Senora GobernadoraML 2/1

Senora Gobernadora leads the TrackWiz model at 58.33 and goes off as the 2/1 morning line choice — trainer Rolando Quinonez sends out Armando Aguilar, a combination that commands attention at this level. In a race with no horse showing an obvious speed figure edge, the fact that Senora Gobernadora rates highest in our model with the added benefit of a sharp jockey call makes her the most logical top selection in what is otherwise a coin-flip field.

place5Island SplashML 5/2

Island Splash rates a near-identical 57.5 on the TrackWiz model and draws the 5 post for trainer Felix Gonzalez with Cesar Ortega riding. The 5/2 morning line suggests the crowd likes this one too, and with two Gonzalez horses in the race — the other being Please Behave — watch for pace dynamics that could set this closer up for a big late run.

show3Ride Like the WolfML 3/1

Ride Like the Wolf is third in our ratings at 56.67 and is the only horse in the top tier who shows an average speed figure — coming in at 54, which is meaningful in a field where most entrants are working off workout times only. Trainer Antonio Garcia has Alfredo Bautista aboard, and at 3/1, this horse is a solid show anchor and worth using under in exactas.

Race 8

11:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claimer at 5.5 furlongs where the TrackWiz model flips the morning line on its head — the public's favorite is ranked well below our top selection, creating what looks like a genuine overlay opportunity.

win5Twisted HumorML 4/1

Twisted Humor tops this field convincingly with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 17 points ahead of the next horse — and yet the morning line has this one at 4/1 while another horse draws a shorter number. Trainer Jesus Uranga, who also fields a horse in Race 5, sends Ricardo Ramirez to the mount, and a 54 average speed figure is competitive for this level. When the model says best horse and the crowd says mid-price, that's a value play worth pressing.

place1Blame It On AbbyML 2/1

Blame It On Abby is the second choice in our model at 68.48 with a 55 average speed figure — the highest in the field — and gets Abel Lezcano for the Peter Miller barn. Miller is one of the stronger trainers in Southern California maiden ranks, and the 2/1 morning line reflects significant public support. A 55 speed figure combined with Miller's first-out numbers makes this horse a legitimate threat to win and an ideal place-ticket anchor.

show7Free NominationML 15/1

Free Nomination is the sleeper of the race at 15/1 with a 63.39 TrackWiz rating — good for third in the field, yet the morning line is pricing this one as a fringe player. Trainer Oscar Heredia gives Francisco Orduna-Rojas the mount, and while there's no average speed figure on record to anchor the analysis, our model clearly identifies value here. At 15/1, this is a trifecta and superfecta addition that could pay handsomely if the pace scenario sets up.

Race 9

12:14 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The nightcap is a stakes race at a mile on dirt — the best field on the card — and the TrackWiz model has a decisive top pick with a 35% career win rate who shapes up as the horse to beat, even if the pace figures to be honest and competitive.

win5Coach CroninML 9/5

Coach Cronin is the standout selection on the night, carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — highest of any horse across the entire nine-race card — and a 35% career win rate that is elite for stakes competition. Mike E. Smith gets the mount for trainer Robert Hess Jr., and with a 55 average speed figure and the Hall of Fame jockey in the irons, this is the kind of combination that shows up at 9/5 and still represents solid value. In a stakes race with legitimate depth, the model margin here is meaningful.

place4Shea BrennanML 2/1

Shea Brennan is second in our ratings at 70.64 with the top average speed figure in the race at 57 — a number that stands out even against stakes-caliber horses. Philip D'Amato has a pair of horses in this field, but Shea Brennan is the one with the stronger rating, and Armando Ayuso is a capable partner. At 2/1 on the morning line, the place value is modest, but this horse is a must-use in exactas given the speed figure profile.

show1Speedy WilsonML 3/1

Speedy Wilson rounds out the top three at 64.58 on the TrackWiz model with a 33% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure — both strong numbers in stakes company. Philip D'Amato fields this one as well, and Ricardo Gonzalez rides. Two D'Amato runners in the same race often creates an interesting dynamic; if either is used to set pace, Speedy Wilson at 3/1 could be the one who benefits at the top of the stretch.

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A clean, fast Los Alamitos strip, a nine-race card with genuine depth, and a stakes closer headlined by Coach Cronin — today has all the ingredients for a productive afternoon at the windows. Start with our three free picks in Races 1, 2, and 3, then grab the full-card breakdown for Races 4 through 9 and the complete exotic ticket strategies. Subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and don't leave money on the table.

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