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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

Sunday, June 21, 20268 racesLos Alamitos Thoroughbred

It's a beautiful Sunday at Los Alamitos — clear skies, 73 degrees, and a fast track that should play true all afternoon. Eight races are on the board for the Thoroughbred card, and with conditions this clean, speed figures should translate well and pace scenarios will be at a premium.

Los Alamitos is one of the tightest, most speed-favoring ovals in the country, and on a day like today you can expect early fractions to be honest and front-runners to get every chance. That shapes how we think about every race on this card, from the opener all the way through the nightcap.

We've got three free previews unlocked for every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — plus five premium breakdowns behind the paywall for subscribers who want the full picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Starter Allowance at 5½ furlongs where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — Jaguar Jon sits well clear of the field on paper, but the Barocio barn brings two live runners to keep things honest.

win6Jaguar JonML 2/1

Jaguar Jon is the class of this field by our metrics, posting a top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a meaningful gap over the next-best runners. Cesar Belmont gets the call in the irons, and with a 35% career win rate, this horse knows how to find the wire first. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price won't knock you off your chair, but that rating advantage in a Starter Allowance field this tight makes him a confident best bet at 5½ furlongs on the Los Al dirt.

place2See Through ItML 5/2

See Through It brings a 30% career win rate and a 76.48 TrackWiz rating into this spot, backed by the always-dangerous Joel Rosario. At 5/2, the public already respects this one, and the Librado Barocio trainer angle adds depth — Barocio saddles two horses here, so the barn clearly likes its chances in this race.

show4Hey BrotherML 9/5

Hey Brother is another Barocio runner, also sporting a 30% career win rate and a solid 74.36 rating. Listed at 9/5, he's actually the morning line favorite — which means bettors see him as the horse to beat even if our analysis leans toward Jaguar Jon. His presence makes the exotics interesting, and he's a safe show ticket in a race where the top three are tightly bunched on figures.

Race 2

8:31 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lady Gregory sets up as a clear top choice in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, but Berry Valley and Lyndee's Dream have the profiles to complicate exacta and trifecta payouts.

win6Lady GregoryML 2/1

Lady Gregory tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a standout 36% career win rate — the best winning percentage in the field. Joel Rosario aboard is never a bad thing, and trainer Steve R. Knapp puts her in a spot where she should be well-placed at 5½ furlongs. At 2/1, she's a deserving chalk and the logical single in any multi-race ticket.

place5Berry ValleyML 3/1

Berry Valley is right behind at 82.22 and a strong 33% career win rate for trainer Librado Barocio. Kyle Frey gets the mount, and this horse matches Lady Gregory's average speed figure of 56, meaning she won't be outrun early. At 3/1, there's some value here for place backers looking to upgrade the exacta.

show1Lyndee's DreamML 5/1

Lyndee's Dream at 5/1 is the show value play in Race 2, with a 58.63 rating and a 16% career win rate that won't blow you away but fits this level. Armando Ayuso rides for Antonio C. Garcia, and an average speed of 55 suggests she's competitive in the speed figures without being elite. Toss her in as the third leg of a trifecta and you could be rewarded.

Race 3

9:03 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

This Maiden Special Weight at 5 furlongs is a wide-open maiden sprint with first-time or lightly raced runners — pedigree and trainer reputation loom large when the past performances are thin.

win2HughesML 6/5

Hughes gets the nod as our top pick here with a 59.67 TrackWiz rating and the enormous advantage of Joel Rosario in the saddle. But the real draw is the trainer — Bob Baffert's maidens at short prices deserve respect, and at 6/5 on the morning line, the market agrees. In a field where speed figures are limited, trainer class is a major handicapping factor, and Baffert's operation consistently gets first-out runners ready to fire.

place1Midnight OvationML 5/2

Midnight Ovation brings a 57.5 rating for trainer Peter Miller, who has a strong reputation for getting maidens competitive early in their careers. Kazushi Kimura rides, and at 5/2, this one represents solid place value if Hughes gets caught in a pace duel or encounters any trouble. Keep her on the ticket.

show4High ProntoML 7/2

High Pronto at 7/2 rounds out the show slot for Doug O'Neill, a trainer who consistently wins with firsters and short-field maidens. A 55.83 rating slots him just behind the top two, and Edgar Payeras has the experience to get the most out of a debuting runner. At slightly longer odds, he's a worthwhile show inclusion in a wide-open maiden.

The free portion of today's card covers the first three races, and there's a compelling thread running through all of them: speed. On this compact Los Alamitos surface, horses that can get to the front without burning themselves up have a structural edge, and our top picks in each of these races fit that profile. Jaguar Jon opens the card in the Starter Allowance at 2/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a number that commands respect in this company. Lady Gregory matches that exact rating in Race 2's Allowance Optional Claiming, which tells you this figures to be one of the stronger races of the early card.

Race 3 shifts to a Maiden Special Weight at 5 furlongs — the shortest trip of the day — where Hughes is the 6/5 morning line favorite. Maiden races carry more uncertainty by nature, and we'll walk through what our analysis says about Hughes's chances and whether there's any value hiding in the field.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tess of Hemet opens as the even-money favorite in this Maiden Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs and our ratings back up the public confidence — but Gold Proof and Wicked Spud make this a race worth structuring exotics around.

win1Tess of HemetML EVN

Tess of Hemet is the standout in this field with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in Race 4 by a wide margin. Listed at even money, the morning line makes her a deserving favorite, and Kyle Frey's experience gives trainer Hector O. Palma a reliable pilot. She carries an average speed of 54, and while maiden claiming fields can be unpredictable, her rating edge here is significant enough to make her the confident top pick.

place2Gold ProofML 4/1

Gold Proof slots in as the place pick at 4/1 with a 79.39 rating that puts him clearly second in the field on our numbers. Pedro Flores rides for Felix L. Gonzalez, and without a published average speed this horse carries some question marks — but the rating suggests underlying ability that could surface in a maiden claiming spot at Los Al.

show6Wicked SpudML 5/2

Wicked Spud at 5/2 is a bit of a curiosity — morning line shorter than the rating (57.5) might suggest, which tells you the market has information our model may not fully capture. Armando Aguilar picks up the mount for Daniel Dunham, and the 46 average speed is modest, but Wicked Spud is worth including at show in case the two horses above him encounter trouble.

Race 5

10:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Willow Cove enters this 5½-furlong Claiming race as the TrackWiz standout, but the pace scenario looks competitive with Misty Heart and Donttellourwives both capable of pressing — making this a race where watching the tote matters.

win3Willow CoveML 9/5

Willow Cove posts the field's top rating at 88.83 for trainer Jesus J. Uranga, who runs two in this race — always worth noting when a barn double-enters on the same card. Ricardo S. Ramirez rides, and with a 20% career win rate and a 56 average speed, the figures support her as a genuine contender. At 9/5, she's a fair price for the top-rated runner in a claiming field, and Uranga clearly sends her in here with confidence.

place1Misty HeartML 3/1

Misty Heart is a strong place contender with a 73.78 rating and a 28% career win rate — that winning percentage is the kind of number that plays well in claiming company. Edgar Payeras gets the mount for trainer Vann Belvoir, and a 56 average speed matches the top horses in the field. At 3/1, she's a logical price to run second or better.

show7DonttellourwivesML 5/2

Donttellourwives at 5/2 brings Joel Rosario aboard, which automatically elevates any horse's chances in a field like this. The 65.12 rating and 11% career win rate aren't flashy, but Lorenzo Campuzano's runner has the speed figures to hang around late. Use as the third part of a trifecta — Rosario has a way of conjuring results out of modest figures.

Race 6

10:35 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight Starter Allowance where three horses are bunched within a point of each other on TrackWiz ratings — the pace shape and jockey decisions could easily determine the order of finish at 5½ furlongs.

win4Too Much InfoML 5/2

Too Much Info tops our ratings at 87.81 and carries the best average speed figure in the field at 57 — that's the kind of edge that matters in sprint racing where fractions are everything. Adrian Escobedo picks up the mount for Jesus Nunez, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse sits in a sweet spot between value and legitimacy. The combination of top speed and top rating in a Starter Allowance makes Too Much Info our best bet in Race 6.

place2The Big CheeseolaML 2/1

The Big Cheeseola at 2/1 is fascinating — the morning line actually makes him the public choice, yet our analysis slots him as the place pick behind Too Much Info. Kazushi Kimura is a live rider, and a 78.72 rating with a 16% career win rate for trainer Jesus J. Uranga suggests this horse is competitive at this level. If the pace gets fast early, a horse with a 56 average speed could be stalking the leader when it counts.

show1CulturalML 3/1

Cultural opens at 3/1 with a 78.49 rating — essentially identical to The Big Cheeseola on our numbers, which is what makes this race so tricky to dissect. Trainer Sergio Morfin sends him out with Ricardo S. Ramirez, and a 22% career win rate shows he can win. At 3/1 in a three-way deadlock at the top, the show spot represents solid coverage for exotic bettors.

Race 7

11:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Black Magician tops the TrackWiz ratings in this 5-furlong Claiming sprint, but stablemate Chasin Munny and All the Greats — who owns a remarkable 44% career win rate — give this race serious depth at the top.

win1Black MagicianML 4/1

Black Magician leads this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a 34% career win rate that screams 'winner' in claiming company. Ricardo S. Ramirez rides for trainer Jesus J. Uranga, who is clearly having a strong night with multiple runners on the card. The 4/1 morning line on the top-rated horse is the kind of value you look for — if the pace sets up favorably, this one should be collecting.

place5Chasin MunnyML 3/1

Chasin Munny at 3/1 is the second Uranga runner in this race, with a 79.83 rating and a 20% career win rate. Francisco Orduna-Rojas gets the call, and a 56 average speed matches the better horses in the field. When a trainer doubles up, you have to respect both runners, and Chasin Munny clearly has the figures to fill the exacta.

show7All the GreatsML 4/1

All the Greats is the most intriguing horse on the board here — a 44% career win rate is genuinely exceptional for any level, and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer knows how to spot a spot. Edgar Payeras rides, and a 79.73 rating puts this horse squarely in the mix. At 4/1, he's great show value, and that win percentage makes you wonder if the market has this one slightly wrong.

Race 8

11:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep 11-horse Maiden Claiming field at 6 furlongs where sorting through first-time starters and winless runners makes this the toughest race on the card — but Baby Needs Shoes has a significant rating edge that's hard to ignore.

win6Baby Needs ShoesML 7/2

Baby Needs Shoes tops this massive field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and the hot stick of Kazushi Kimura in the irons for trainer Peter Miller, who also runs Blame It On Abby in the same race. A 55 average speed is competitive in this spot, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value on the top-rated runner in an 11-horse field. Miller's barn has a strong track record developing maidens, and this is our confident top choice in Race 8.

place3Blame It On AbbyML 5/1

Blame It On Abby at 5/1 gives you the Miller barn in a different package — a 78.12 rating and a 55 average speed for Ricardo S. Ramirez. That price is attractive for a horse coming out of a respected operation, and she profiles as the logical place horse if Baby Needs Shoes leads this home. Two Miller runners in the same field means the trainer is confident in the level, which is a reassuring signal.

show10Hayley AmberML 4/1

Hayley Amber at 4/1 is the show pick with a 69.45 rating and Kyle Frey riding for Sally P. Rivera. A 55 average speed slots her right in the competitive range for this field, and 4/1 is a price worth grabbing in a wide-open maiden. She may lack the top rating, but her figures and price point make her a smart trifecta inclusion in the deepest race of the night.

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Bottom line: Los Alamitos is primed for a fast, clean card today and our model has strong opinions across all eight races. Jaguar Jon and Lady Gregory headline a sharp free-preview trio, while Tess of Hemet — the highest-rated pick on the entire card — anchors the premium side. Get the full analysis and exotic strategies by subscribing at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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