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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

November 12, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

Best bets at Lone Star today

Race 13Mighty Eye AmML 3/14:05 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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Mighty Eye Am is your best bet on the free side of today's card — Race 1, a 250-yard Maiden Claiming sprint, where our TrackWiz ratings clock this horse with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.22 sec/furlong and three consecutive in-the-money finishes backing it up. At 3/1 on the morning line, that's a price worth targeting early.

The setting couldn't be better for fast times. It's a clear Thursday afternoon at Lone Star Park, 77°F, dry all the way down — exactly the kind of firm, consistent dirt that benefits horses who've shown they can run. Eight races are on the board, all on the main track, all quarter-horse distances ranging from a quick 220 yards out to a relatively lengthy 440.

The card skews heavily toward short-field, short-distance sprint racing — the kind of day where pace scenarios are almost irrelevant and raw speed figures do most of the talking. That's good news if you know where to look, and TrackWiz analysis has zeroed in on some compelling spots across both the free and premium races.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:05 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 250-yard maiden claimer where the top-rated horse holds a significant edge on paper, but a third of the field is within striking distance — expect fireworks out of the gate.

win3Mighty Eye AmML 3/1

Mighty Eye Am is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, ranking first overall, and the numbers back it up — clocking the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.22 sec/furlong. The TrackWiz model gave this horse a 22.54% sim win share, the highest of any runner here. Add a perfect 2-for-2 record at Lone Star Park and three consecutive in-the-money finishes, and trainer Juan Carlos Ortega (Grade A) has this one pointing in the right direction. At 3/1 on the morning line, there isn't much overlay, but the form cycle is as consistent as you'll find in this maiden claimer.

place9SwitowskiML 9/2

Switowski sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 68.19 and posted the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field (12.22 sec/furlong), matching the top two. The concern is a thin record on dirt sprints — just one in-the-money finish out of five tries — but the raw speed is there, and at 9/2 morning line there's a touch of value if this horse gets out of the gate cleanly.

show7A Dashing PerryML 7/2

A Dashing Perry grabs the third spot in our ratings (65.43) and brings back-to-back in-the-money finishes into this spot, which is encouraging form heading into the race. The worry is a poor overall sprint record — only three placings in 14 dirt sprint tries — but as a show play in exotics at 7/2, the recent form makes the inclusion defensible.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Mighty Eye Am23%
7A Dashing Perry14%
9Switowski13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 1 is your free look today, and Mighty Eye Am earns the top spot cleanly. The speed number is the best in the field, the recent form is consistent, and the morning line of 3/1 suggests the market hasn't fully caught up yet — a situation TrackWiz analysis loves. In a short-field maiden sprint, consistency and raw speed are the two things that matter most, and this horse checks both boxes.

The firm, dry Lone Star surface today should play fair across the board — no wet-bias worries, no surface variance to account for. What you see in the recent speed figures is likely what you'll get in real time this afternoon. Keep an eye on the clock in Race 1; if the track is playing especially fast early, that's a signal worth carrying into your premium race decisions.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:31 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

A 350-yard maiden claimer with two horses virtually tied at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — this figures to be a two-horse battle with the rest of the field playing for thirds.

win6One Classy DynastyML 5/2

One Classy Dynasty tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and owns the most consistent recent form in the race — four straight in-the-money efforts, including four of her last six overall. With a 44% career in-the-money rate and jockey Luis Angel Flores Garcia sporting an 'A' grade, the connections are strong. Our 10,000 simulations gave her a 23.81% win share, the highest in the field, and she earned a spot on today's TrackWiz Top 50 Horses list. At 5/2, she's a deserving morning-line favorite.

place1County TimeML 3/1

County Time is essentially deadlocked with the top pick on ratings (87.08 vs 87.81) and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 11.69 sec/furlong — that's a real edge over a 350-yard strip. The knock is three straight non-placings coming in, so the form has dipped, but the raw speed number and that 'A' jockey grade from Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. (23% win rate over the past year) make this a logical underneath play.

show3HunnicutML 7/2

Hunnicut rates third overall (82.67) and clocked the second-fastest recent speed figure (11.79 sec/furlong), just a tick behind the top two. A 33% in-the-money rate gives some statistical backing, and trainer John Stinebaugh gets a C+ but the horse's own figures tell the better story here. At 7/2, Hunnicut rounds out what looks like a logical top-three exacta and trifecta combination with the two horses above.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

6One Classy Dynasty24%
1County Time22%
3Hunnicut19%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:57 PM EST

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A short 250-yard claiming sprint with a clear class standout at the top — the question is whether the front-runner can be caught, or whether one of several sharp speed horses steals the race before anyone reacts.

win2HellofaneagleML 9/5

Hellofaneagle is the top-rated horse in this field by a comfortable margin (88.83) and backs it up with the fastest recent speed figure at 11.58 sec/furlong — the best of anyone here. Three placings in the last five races show consistent form, and a class drop from $10,000 down to $5,000 claiming puts this horse in a more favorable spot. Our simulations gave Hellofaneagle a 26.50% win share. The modest jockey and trainer grades (both C) are the main concern, but on pure speed and class-drop angles, this is a clear top selection.

place7Is Fly Hawkeye FlyML 9/2

Is Fly Hawkeye Fly rates second in this field (76.30) and brings a career win rate of 33%, the best of any horse in the race. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is in the irons — he's posted a 23% win rate over the past year with a 51% in-the-money clip — and the class drop from $7,500 to $5,000 is another positive angle. The TrackWiz sim gave this horse a 16.78% win share, second only to the top pick, making it a sound underneath play.

show6Jtc Mexico CashML 4/1

Jtc Mexico Cash brings a live jockey angle — the horse-and-rider combination has a 15% win rate together — and most importantly, this horse won its last start on October 24th. A 40% in-the-money career rate and jockey Roman Armando Huerta's 'A-' grade round out the profile nicely. At 4/1, there's a bit of value here if the top two falter, and the recent win form is hard to ignore in a field full of horses looking to find their best.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Hellofaneagle27%
7Is Fly Hawkeye Fly17%
6Jtc Mexico Cash15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 4

5:23 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 440 yd · Dirt

One horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 440-yard maiden claimer, and the rest of the field is playing catch-up — but there's enough depth in the second tier to make exactas and trifectas interesting.

win6JeremiahML 8/5

Jeremiah is in a class by himself here with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — ranking first by a wide margin — and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 11.61 sec/furlong. The form is exactly what you want to see: four straight in-the-money finishes, four of the last six, backed by a trainer grade of 'A-' from Jose Luis Sanchez III. Our simulations gave Jeremiah a 31.90% win share — by far the highest in the field. At 8/5, the morning line reflects his dominance, and there's little reason to look elsewhere for the win.

place7Eagle LeederML 7/2

Eagle Leeder sits second in the ratings (67.38) with an impressive 43% in-the-money career rate — the best of anyone in this race outside the top pick. While no specific speed figure angle stands out for this horse, the consistency in the money combined with jockey Gilberto Linares (Grade B) gives solid underneath appeal. At 7/2, Eagle Leeder is a natural fit in the place spot and in exacta wheels with the morning-line favorite.

show8Addicts PaintedwagonML 5/2

Addicts Paintedwagon rates third overall (65.13) and shows a 33% in-the-money career rate — strong for a maiden claimer. The concerns are real: limited success at Lone Star specifically (one placing in five) and an age disadvantage of 1.4 years over the field average, which is worth noting. That said, at 5/2 morning line, the market respects this horse, and it fits naturally into trifecta combinations underneath the top two.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Jeremiah32%
8Addicts Paintedwagon18%
7Eagle Leeder18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

5:49 PM EST

Allowance · 220 yd · Dirt

An allowance sprint over 220 yards with a clear speed standout and a wide-open battle for the place and show spots — the value in this race lives underneath the favorite.

win6Hes No PoliticianML 8/5

Hes No Politician tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and clocks the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.16 sec/furlong — a meaningful advantage in a race this short. The track record at Lone Star is immaculate: one win and four in-the-money finishes in four starts here, and a solid 55% overall in-the-money rate. Our simulations gave this horse a 25.29% win share, the best in the field. At 8/5 morning line, it's a deserving favorite.

place12Tempting Nine ElevenML 3/1

Tempting Nine Eleven rates second in the field (77.44) with the second-fastest recent speed figure (11.31 sec/furlong) and an outstanding 60% career in-the-money rate — that's a legitimately strong record. The major wildcard is a 480-day layoff, which is a long time away from the track, so fitness is a question mark. Trainer Marla Dayana Vargas holds an 'A' grade though, and the raw talent is undeniable — at 3/1 this is the logical place play if the layoff isn't an issue.

show3NikosML 4/1

Nikos rates third in the field (72.60) and owns a 50% in-the-money career rate across 10 starts — that's consistent money-finishing ability. The minor concern is only 28 days of rest coming in and TrackWiz data suggesting this horse performs better with longer breaks of 30-plus days. Jockey Miguel Vallejo gets a 'C' grade, but the horse-and-jockey combination's track record together at least shows some familiarity. At 4/1, Nikos is a reasonable show play in trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Hes No Politician25%
12Tempting Nine Eleven17%
3Nikos14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

6:15 PM EST

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A competitive 250-yard claiming sprint where the top two horses on the TrackWiz sheet both bring strong recent form and speed figures — this shapes up as a head-to-head battle with the rail draw adding an interesting wrinkle.

win2Bs Swift EagleML 3/1

Bs Swift Eagle tops the ratings at 87.08 with the third-fastest recent speed figure (11.91 sec/furlong) and an impressive 66% career in-the-money rate — two out of three finishes in the money is elite consistency. Jockey Juan Pulido has a 28% win rate over the past year with a 57% in-the-money clip, one of the sharper rider angles on the card. Our simulations gave Bs Swift Eagle a 20.39% win share, tops in the race. The one concern is not using Lasix while five rivals do, but the talent and jockey combo make this a confident top selection at 3/1.

place5Ml Sr Hayden JamesML 7/2

Ml Sr Hayden James sits second in the TrackWiz ratings (84.10) and owns the fastest recent speed figure in this race at 11.71 sec/furlong — that's the number that matters most over 250 yards. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is back in the irons (23% annual win rate, 51% in-the-money) and this horse brings a 60% career in-the-money rate, which is outstanding. Like the top pick, this horse skips Lasix while five others use it, worth noting — but the figures and connections are too strong to overlook.

show4Favorite DashinML 6/1

Favorite Dashin rates third (80.95) and might be the most consistent horse in the field on recent form — three straight in-the-money finishes, three of the last four. A 75% career in-the-money rate is the best of any horse in this race, and the 1 win and 3 of 4 placings on dirt tracks show real surface affinity. At 6/1, there's genuine value here as a show play and trifecta anchor for a horse whose recent form is arguably better than its morning-line price suggests.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Bs Swift Eagle20%
5Ml Sr Hayden James18%
4Favorite Dashin14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 7

6:41 PM EST

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A 350-yard allowance with the top-rated horse skipping Lasix while nine rivals use it — that's the defining narrative alongside a tight speed figure matchup at the top of the form.

win8Fiona Is ToxicML 5/2

Fiona Is Toxic leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and posted the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field (11.63 sec/furlong). Jockey Francisco Calderon has a 22% annual win rate and 51% in-the-money clip — a strong 'A' grade — and the horse earned a spot on today's TrackWiz Top 50 Horses list. Our simulations gave Fiona Is Toxic a 25.93% win share, best in the race. The only real flag is running without Lasix while nine rivals use it, so watch the wagering for any late equipment change signals. At 5/2, this is the horse to beat.

place4Shes Judge TeeML 7/2

Shes Judge Tee rates second overall (81.42) and owns the fastest speed figure in the entire field at 11.26 sec/furlong — that raw speed number is elite for this distance and company. The complications are real though: zero in-the-money finishes in five starts at 350 yards specifically, and only 11 days of rest coming in with the data suggesting this horse performs better on 30-plus days off. It's a conflicted profile, but the speed figure alone keeps it in play at 7/2.

show10PoppinML 6/1

Poppin comes in off a win on October 15th at today's surface and distance — that's the kind of live form angle that makes a horse dangerous at 6/1. A 50% career in-the-money rate across 18 dirt starts is a legitimately strong record, and two wins on dirt is real accomplishment. Our simulations gave Poppin a 14.15% win share — solid for a morning-line 6/1 — and the recent back-to-back form makes this a live show play and an attractive trifecta piece.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Fiona Is Toxic26%
4Shes Judge Tee21%
10Poppin14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

7:07 PM EST

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A 330-yard maiden that pits a speed-figure standout at the top of the ratings against a horse with better recent form and an elite trainer-jockey combination — this figures to be a two-horse affair with a live longshot lurking in double-digit territory.

win12First Corona SunsetML 3/1

First Corona Sunset tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the race at 11.40 sec/furlong — that's a meaningful edge at 330 yards. The form is excellent too: six in-the-money finishes in nine dirt starts and three of the last four races in the money. With an 'A' jockey and 'A' trainer both in the corner, the connections are as good as you'll find in a maiden race. Our simulations gave this horse a 18.73% win share, tops in the field. At 3/1, this is the legitimate class of the race.

place9The TalkML 6/5

The Talk sits second in the ratings (85.26) and flashes the second-fastest speed figure (11.62 sec/furlong), just a hair off the top pick. Jockey Francisco Calderon is again in the irons — 22% win rate, 51% in-the-money over the past year — and trainer Justin Joiner holds an 'A-' grade. The main reservation is a limited Lone Star record (one placing in four tries here), but back-to-back in-the-money finishes to close the form are hard to dismiss. At 6/5, the market is saying this horse belongs — simulations back a 23.46% win share.

show10Monday Morning HeroML 10/1

Monday Morning Hero rates third at 76.43 and brings a 66% career in-the-money rate — the best of any horse on the board. Back-to-back in-the-money finishes coming in and two of three dirt starts in the money paint a picture of consistent, improving form. Jockey Roman Armando Huerta gets an 'A-' grade, which is a positive. At 10/1, this is the most attractive value in the race — our simulations gave a 9.36% win share against implied odds of roughly 9%, which suggests the market has this one pegged fairly but the recent form argues for more respect.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

9The Talk23%
12First Corona Sunset19%
11Lr Eagle13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: Mighty Eye Am in Race 1 is the free play, and the premium card is headlined by some of the strongest sim numbers we've posted this week — led by Jeremiah in Race 4. Clear skies, fast dirt, eight chances to cash. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers — see you at the windows.

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