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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 10, 2026

October 10, 202612 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Lone Star Park — clear skies, 87°F, and a fast, dry strip that should reward pure speed all afternoon. With 12 races on the card spanning everything from 220-yard sprints to a 440-yard Derby, there's plenty of action to keep you locked in from first post to last.

Two headline events anchor the back half of the card: Race 10 is a Derby going 440 yards, and Race 12 is a Futurity at 400 yards — two of the most prestigious conditions you'll see at this level of quarter horse racing. When stakes-quality runners and top juveniles are on the same card, the exotic wagering opportunities stack up fast.

TrackWiz has ratings on every runner in every race today. Three races are fully open to all readers — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with our complete nine-race premium breakdown available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

The top of the TrackWiz ratings are spread across three horses with no dominant favorite, making this 870-yard allowance a prime exotic opportunity with legit value hiding at double-digit odds.

win7Asc JettazoomML 8/1

Asc Jettazoom is our top-rated runner in the field at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant gap between public perception and our TrackWiz model. Diego Contreras gets the call for trainer Jose Dolores Camacho, and the 8/1 price on the top-rated horse in an allowance at 870 yards represents exactly the kind of spot where the board undervalues a contender. At 11% career win rate, Jettazoom isn't flashy on paper, but the rating separation here is hard to ignore.

place2BogieML 4/1

Bogie checks in with a 76.13 TrackWiz rating and draws the services of Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega for trainer J. Ryan Basham, who also saddles the morning-line favorite. Bogie's 14% career win rate is modest, but in a race where our top pick goes off at 8/1, a 4/1 place ticket on the second-rated horse gives you solid coverage in exacta and place pools.

show6F DeeML 9/2

F Dee rates 65.55 by our model and comes in at a fair 9/2 morning line for trainer Bradley C. Bolen with Francisco Giles up. Her 8% career win rate suggests she's more of a 'money earner' than a win threat, which fits perfectly as a show anchor or bottom half of an exacta wheel. Don't overlook her in trifecta construction.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Foxy Cartel stands alone at the top of this 12-horse maiden claiming sprint, but with a massive field at 300 yards, gate luck and first-step quickness could scramble the order in a hurry.

win8Foxy CartelML 7/5

Foxy Cartel is the clear class of this field on TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 — the next closest horse is more than 30 points back. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. is a capable pilot, and the 7/5 morning line suggests the public agrees this one is head and shoulders above the rest. In a wide-open maiden claiming field, you take your best horse and let the model do the talking.

place3That a Pool DealML 6/1

That a Pool Deal rates 58.20 for trainer Juan Carlos Ortega and jockey Adrian Guel, going off at 6/1 on the morning line — solid value for a place ticket. The rating gap between That a Pool Deal and the horses below her in our model is meaningful, and at 300 yards anything can happen off the gate, making her a logical exacta partner with the favorite.

show2Katella KingML 9/2

Katella King checks in at 54.17 for trainer Kash Reed with Francisco Calderon aboard at 9/2 on the morning line. She's the third-rated horse in a 12-horse field and occupies a nice slot price-wise for show betting and trifecta coverage. In a chaotic maiden sprint at 300 yards, having the third-best rating in the field is a real asset.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Maiden · 220 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden field at 220 yards where the TrackWiz model identifies a clear top two — but the morning line has one of them priced at 10/1, which is where the real intrigue lies.

win7Di Fdd DancerML 7/2

Di Fdd Dancer tops our TrackWiz ratings at 78.86 and is appropriately installed as the 7/2 morning-line co-favorite alongside Beaches Be Crazy. Olvin Josue Martinez gets the mount for trainer Oscar Nunez, and the numbers support Di Fdd Dancer as the most likely winner in a field where every horse is still looking for their first victory. At a fair price with a top rating, this is a confident win selection.

place12Miss BogartML 10/1

Miss Bogart is the value play of the day in this race — rated 76.88 by TrackWiz, nearly as strong as our win pick, yet she goes off at 10/1 on the morning line. Jacobo Adan Aguilar rides for trainer Riley S. Aguilar, and that rating-to-odds discrepancy is glaring. She's a strong place bet and should absolutely be on top of exacta tickets.

show5Fdd RelentlessML 4/1

Fdd Relentless rates 63.15 for trainer Felesha Gold with Ali Rivera in the irons, heading in at 4/1 on the morning line. She's the third-rated horse in the field with a meaningful separation from the rest of the pack, making her a logical show anchor. In maiden races at 220 yards, the first few jumps out of the gate matter enormously, and Fdd Relentless has the profile to hit the board.

Our three free-preview races kick off the card with a nice cross-section of the day's themes. In Race 1 (870 yards, Allowance), Asc Jettazoom jumps out at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — that's a price worth circling given the allowance conditions over what could be a short field. The longer distance on dry dirt suits a closer with a finishing kick, so pace scenario matters here.

Race 2 brings Foxy Cartel in as the clear top-rated horse at 89.42 — the highest TrackWiz number among our free picks — and a 7/5 morning line that reflects the crowd's agreement. Maiden Claimers at 300 yards tend to be all-or-nothing affairs, and when your top-rated horse is also the public's choice, that alignment is worth respecting. Race 3 features Di Fdd Dancer at 7/2 in a 220-yard Maiden — a short, sharp burst where breaking alertness is everything. On a track playing this fast, clean-breaking horses with strong ratings have a significant edge.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

Three horses are bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming 220-yard dash, with our top pick going off at 6/1 — suggesting there's real overlay value to be found here.

win6Rcv Blue FireML 6/1

Rcv Blue Fire leads all horses in this race with a 82.71 TrackWiz rating, yet the morning line has her at 6/1 — that's a significant value gap with the top model score in the field. Noe Villatoro gets the ride for trainer Adan Guzman, a barn that also conditions Fire a Sixty Six in Race 1. At 220 yards on dirt, raw ability matters more than trip, and Rcv Blue Fire's rating edge is our primary angle here.

place4Flaming Cartel RosesML 4/1

Flaming Cartel Roses is right behind our win pick at 73.91 on the TrackWiz scale for trainer Jorge E. Rubio, with Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. aboard at 4/1. The morning-line price reflects the public's opinion, but our model has her nearly 9 points clear of the next horse — a gap that's meaningful at this short distance. She's a legitimate threat to win and a strong place-ticket play.

show1Handdelivered FamousML 6/1

Handdelivered Famous rates 73.12 for trainer Marla Dayana Vargas with Jonathan Dominguez up, going off at 6/1 on the morning line. She's the third-highest rated horse in a 12-horse field and sits in a competitive tier just below the top two. As a show bet at a fair price, and as part of trifecta combinations, she's exactly the type of horse you want on your ticket.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

A legitimate top-two matchup shapes up in this 400-yard allowance, with Valiant Magic Mike and Mr Jet Fees separating themselves from the field on our TrackWiz ratings — but the price is short, so finding the right third horse matters for exotics.

win3Valiant Magic MikeML 2/1

Valiant Magic Mike leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws J.R. Ramirez Jr. for trainer Shae L. Cox at a fair 2/1 morning line. He carries a 25% career win rate and his rating separation over the bulk of this field is substantial. At 400 yards in an allowance, the top two rated horses here look like a cut above, and Magic Mike gets the nod for the top spot.

place6Mr Jet FeesML 5/2

Mr Jet Fees is right on Magic Mike's heels at 85.09 on our model, going off at 5/2 for trainer Jimmy W. Guerra with Claudio Ponce Aguilar in the irons. His 37% career win rate is the best among the top-rated horses in this field, which means he's performed consistently when given the right spot. A tight exacta using these two in both orders is worth the investment.

show2Kiss My Nine ElevenML 10/1

Kiss My Nine Eleven rates 66.63 for trainer Marla Dayana Vargas with Jonathan Dominguez aboard at 10/1 on the morning line. Her 25% career win rate is respectable in this company, and the 10/1 price offers genuine overlay value as a show bet and trifecta piece. With the top two horses likely to fight it out up front, a closer like Kiss My Nine Eleven could benefit from a clear path to the wire.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

Two horses run away from the field on the TrackWiz model in this maiden 400-yard sprint, and the morning line has both installed as the top two choices — the question is whether anything else can crash the party.

win4Jmg Oak DulceML 2/1

Jmg Oak Dulce tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and is correctly installed as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, with Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. aboard for trainer Raul Rodriguez Jr. In a maiden field where ratings drop off sharply after the top two, Oak Dulce's edge is hard to overcome at this sprint distance. This is a win-first spot with legitimate confidence.

place8Navajo StoneML 8/5

Navajo Stone rates 73.76 for trainer John A. Stinebaugh with Ali Rivera up at 8/5 — interestingly, the morning line has her as the second choice despite our model placing Jmg Oak Dulce clearly on top. That 8/5 place price may be lean, but Navajo Stone's rating is well above the rest of the field and she's a near-lock for the board. Use her underneath in exactas.

show12Irish LancerML 6/1

Irish Lancer clocks in at 51.67 for trainer James J. Gonzales II with Francisco Calderon aboard at 6/1 — the highest-rated horse outside the top two by a clear margin. In a maiden sprint where only two horses really stand out, Irish Lancer is the logical safety net for show bets and trifecta bottoms. The 6/1 price gives you enough value to make her worth including.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

Capos Train Station owns a commanding rating edge in this allowance sprint at 250 yards, but the secondary market is tight — three horses cluster in the 72-75 range right behind, keeping exacta prices honest.

win8Capos Train StationML 3/1

Capos Train Station tops this field decisively at 86.68 on the TrackWiz model and comes in at a strong 3/1 morning line for trainer James J. Gonzales II with Jesus Olivas in the irons. The 50% career win rate is the standout number here — when this horse hits its preferred spot, it gets the job done half the time. That combination of top rating and elite win percentage makes this one of the more confident top selections on the card.

place5B a FlirtML 9/2

B a Flirt rates 74.45 for trainer Jose A. Palma-Rosales Jr. with Ruben Delarosa Jr. up at 9/2 on the morning line. The 15% career win rate is respectable in allowance company, and her rating places her clearly in the second tier behind the top pick. At 9/2, she offers solid place value and should absolutely feature in exacta tickets with the top horse.

show10Tornado DynastyML 12/1

Tornado Dynasty is our show selection at a juicy 12/1 morning line, rating 73.96 for trainer Victor G. Fierro with Claudio Ponce Aguilar aboard. He's actually rated just a tick behind B a Flirt — nearly the same number — yet goes off at nearly triple the odds. A 20% career win rate adds credibility, and at 12/1 he's a trifecta standout and a legitimate show overlay. Don't leave him off your tickets.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

The stakes race at 400 yards features a competitive field with no runaway ratings leader, but Cowboys Love Wine's combination of career win percentage and model score sets her apart in a race where several horses have legitimate credentials.

win5Cowboys Love WineML 3/1

Cowboys Love Wine leads the field at 82.35 on TrackWiz ratings, backed by a remarkable 60% career win rate — the best among legitimate contenders in this stakes field. Ali Rivera gets the call for trainer John A. Stinebaugh, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse with these win credentials in a stakes spot. When you combine a top model score with a 60% win rate, you've got a very compelling top selection.

place8Tahitis French KissML 8/1

Tahitis French Kiss rates 79.79 for trainer Haley N. Hobbs with Fernando Fonseca-Soto aboard at 8/1 on the morning line — that's genuine overlay territory for the second-rated horse in a stakes race. A 50% career win rate is elite, and the gap between her and the horses rated below suggests she has a strong profile for hitting the board. The 8/1 place price here is legitimately attractive.

show3Sweet PursuitML 4/1

Sweet Pursuit checks in at 77.34 for trainer Kash Reed with Juan Pulido riding at 4/1 on the morning line. She's the third-rated horse in this field and offers a reasonable price for show betting and trifecta coverage. In a stakes race where multiple horses have strong win percentages, Sweet Pursuit's rating keeps her in the mix as a reliable board finisher.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A fascinating allowance sprint at 250 yards where the morning-line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse — creating a genuine value scenario with Hes Your Daddy at 9/2 carrying the top TrackWiz number.

win2Hes Your DaddyML 9/2

Hes Your Daddy leads all horses in Race 9 with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating, yet the morning line has him at 9/2 while Feenix is listed as the 2/1 favorite. Oliver E. Martinez gets the mount for trainer Raul Ramirez, and that rating-to-odds discrepancy is one of the more interesting spots on today's card. A 50% career win rate in allowance company only reinforces the value case — this horse knows how to win.

place5Mallboro RojoML 3/1

Mallboro Rojo rates 76.11 for trainer Rene Talamantes with Rosendo E. Pina Garcia riding at 3/1 on the morning line. His 33% career win rate is solid, and the morning line reflects genuine public respect. As the third-highest-rated horse in the field, Mallboro Rojo is a natural exacta partner with our win pick and a strong standalone place bet.

show10FeenixML 2/1

Feenix is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but ranks third in our TrackWiz model at 75.92 — a mild cautionary flag. Luis L. Vivanco rides for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III, and a 50% career win rate demands respect. Even if the public has overestimated Feenix slightly, that win percentage suggests he'll stay competitive and make the board, making him a sensible show bet even for skeptics.

Race 10

2:59 AM EDT

Derby · 440 yd · Dirt

Royalist looks like the clear standout in this 440-yard Derby on the TrackWiz model, but Ding Dang Dulce and Karma Cha Ching offer real credentials and give exacta players multiple angles to work with.

win2RoyalistML 9/5

Royalist tops this Derby field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and checks in at 9/5 on the morning line for trainer Ben Olaveson with Luis L. Vivanco aboard. A 46% career win rate — among the best in the field — reinforces what the model says: this horse belongs at the top of the ticket. At 9/5, the price isn't giving much away, but when the top-rated horse in a Derby carries a near-50% win rate, you back it.

place5Ding Dang DulceML 6/1

Ding Dang Dulce rates 75.31 for trainer Haley N. Hobbs with Fernando Fonseca-Soto up at 6/1 on the morning line. Her 53% career win rate is the highest in the field — even above our top pick — which means she consistently delivers when conditions line up. The 6/1 price for a horse with that win rate and a top-three rating is excellent place value, and she's a must-use in exactas.

show4Karma Cha ChingML 5/1

Karma Cha Ching rates 74.09 for trainer Esteban Rubio with Nestor Duran riding at 5/1. A 38% career win rate places her firmly in the competitive middle tier of this Derby, and the 5/1 price is fair for a horse that ranks third in our model. She's a solid trifecta anchor and a reasonable show wager in what figures to be a contested stretch run at 440 yards.

Race 11

3:25 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Three horses rate closely at the top of this optional claiming 350-yard sprint, with the morning line splitting them across a wide price range — the model says the real value is at the top of the odds board, not the bottom.

win11Jrs Outlook Is SweetML 8/5

Jrs Outlook Is Sweet leads all horses in this optional claiming race with an 88.64 TrackWiz rating, going off at 8/5 for trainer Marla Dayana Vargas with Jonathan Dominguez up. Her 40% career win rate is excellent in optional claiming company, and the combination of top rating and proven win consistency makes her the clear top selection. At 8/5, the price is short but earned.

place9InflationML 5/2

Inflation rates 87.81 — razor close to our win pick — yet goes off at 5/2 for trainer Marc E. Jungers with Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. in the irons. A 25% career win rate is solid, and the sub-1-point gap between Inflation and our win pick means this race could easily flip. At 5/2, she's an excellent place bet and the natural top of exacta tickets.

show3Sign of a JetML 7/5

Sign of a Jet rates 82.52 for trainer Ricardo Aguirre with Arturo Alvarez aboard at 7/5 — interestingly, the morning line makes her the second choice despite ranking third in our model. A 27% career win rate is respectable, and the 7/5 price is lean for a show bet. However, her rating keeps her firmly in the mix, and she's a must-include in any trifecta combination in this deep optional claiming field.

Race 12

3:51 AM EDT

Futurity · 400 yd · Dirt

The Futurity to close the card features a dramatic split between the top two rated horses and the rest of the field — Jt Midlife Crisis and Kiss Me Ina Flash are in a class of their own based on TrackWiz numbers and career win percentages.

win4Jt Midlife CrisisML 9/5

Jt Midlife Crisis leads this Futurity field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and an extraordinary 83% career win rate — the highest in today's entire card among horses with meaningful starts. Roman Cruz gets the call for trainer Marla Dayana Vargas at 9/5 on the morning line. That win percentage in a Futurity spot is not a coincidence — this is a horse that wins races, and our model backs it up with the top rating. This is the play.

place9Kiss Me Ina FlashML 2/1

Kiss Me Ina Flash rates 87.64 and carries a 100% career win rate — perfect in every start — going off at 2/1 for trainer Kash Reed with Juan Pulido aboard. The rating gap between her and the rest of the field is enormous, and the only reason she's not our win pick is the marginal edge Jt Midlife Crisis holds in the model. An exacta wheel using these two in both orders is a smart play on a race that looks like a two-horse affair.

show1Natural Flyin CowboyML 3/1

Natural Flyin Cowboy rates 71.78 for trainer Oscar Nunez with Oliver E. Martinez riding at 3/1 on the morning line. His 40% career win rate is strong for a Futurity entrant, and he's clearly the best of the rest behind the top two. At 3/1, he offers a fair show price and trifecta value as the logical third choice in what appears to be a race where two horses are well above the competition.

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It's a strong Saturday at Lone Star with two elite conditions races headlining a clean, fast-track afternoon. Foxy Cartel is the top-rated free pick at 89.42 and a solid anchor play, while Royalist and Jt Midlife Crisis headline the premium side of the card with matching 88.83 ratings in the Derby and Futurity. Free analysis covers Races 1–3; subscribers get everything else, including pace projections and exotic ticket breakdowns for all 12 races. Good luck out there — bet smart.

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