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Free Lone Star Picks & Predictions for Today — October 9, 2026

October 9, 20269 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Lone Star Park — clear skies, 86°F, and a fast dirt strip that should reward speed from gate to wire. Nine races are on the board today, all run on the dirt and spanning the ultra-short quarter-horse distances that make this track one of the most unique betting experiences in the country.

We're talking 220-yard sprints, 300-yard dashes, and a lone 550-yard test that counts as a marathon by Lone Star standards. With conditions this good, expect quick times and front-runners with a real edge — pace scenario and gate speed are everything out here.

TrackWiz has graded the full nine-race card. The first three races are free for all readers, and our premium subscribers get the complete breakdown — pace projections, exotic plays, and race-by-race analysis — on Races 4 through 9.

3 Free Races Today at Lone Star

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint over 300 yards where one horse stands out dramatically on ratings — the rest of the field is bunched together or well below par.

win6Midnight DML 9/5

Midnight D is the clear top-rated horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83, separating herself from the second-best horse by more than 23 points. Trainer Bradley C. Bolen sends her out at a morning line of 9/5, and the market agrees she belongs at the top of this field. In a short 300-yard dash where there's no time to recover from a stumble out of the gate, having that kind of rating edge matters. Francisco Giles gets the call, and in a maiden sprint this short, clean gate work and raw ability carry the day.

place8One More JessML 5/2

One More Jess checks in as the second-highest rated horse in the race at 65.64, a solid 23-point gap below the top pick but comfortably clear of the rest of the field. H. Javier Hernandez has a solid book of mounts on this card, and trainer Ricardo Alonso Vallejo has runners ready. At 5/2 on the morning line, she offers fair value for a place ticket and makes sense as the logical runner-up.

show2Mighty Bug ReasonML 12/1

Mighty Bug Reason is the value play in this field — rated 59.07 and opening at 12/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential here if she runs to her number. Trainer Jose Uriegas, Jr. puts her in a spot where a third-place finish is very realistic given the thin depth of this maiden field. In a sprint as short as 300 yards, anything can happen out of the gate, making her a worthwhile inclusion in exotic tickets.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

This claiming sprint over 220 yards has a clear top-rated contender, but a pair of longshots with respectable career win percentages could shake up the exotics.

win9Rc Miss GML 5/2

Rc Miss G is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the only horse breaking 80 in the race. Her 20% career win percentage backs up the rating, showing she converts when given the opportunity. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III puts her in what looks like a very winnable spot at the claiming level, and Luis L. Vivanco gets the mount. At 5/2, she's not a huge overlay, but the rating edge here is significant enough that she's the correct single for the top spot.

place1Fur Elise TlcML 8/1

Fur Elise Tlc opens at 8/1 and carries a TrackWiz rating of 65.62 — good enough to compete for a piece in this field. Trainer Eric Aguilar saddles her with Jacobo Adan Aguilar in the irons, a connected barn that knows how to win at this level. She's the kind of horse that can sneak into the exacta at a price, making her a smart inclusion on place tickets.

show8Jtc Mexico CashML 15/1

Jtc Mexico Cash is a genuine value play at 15/1 on the morning line with a 65.42 rating and a 12% career win percentage. Trainer Jorge Luis Barron has her eligible to run a solid race, and the combination of the opening odds and the rating puts her firmly in show-ticket territory. In a 220-yard sprint, she only needs to break cleanly and run her race — at this price, she's worth a shot in the trifecta.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 440 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming field at 440 yards with 12 runners and a legitimate top horse, but plenty of chaos lurking in a big field of first-timers or winless horses.

win3ElectrikML 3/1

Electrik has the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and draws in at 3/1 — fair odds given the edge she holds. Trainer Adan Guzman puts Noe Villatoro up, a combination that bears watching on this card. At 440 yards, pace and stamina become slightly more important than in the short dashes, and Electrik's rating suggests she has the raw ability to handle the added ground. In a field where no other horse cracks 76, this is a strong top selection.

place9Cartelito PoolML 6/1

Cartelito Pool is the second-best rated horse in the field at 75.70 and opens at 6/1 — a price that represents real value given how cleanly she separates from the next tier. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. gets on for trainer Isidro Hinojosa, and that's an experienced jockey who can navigate a 12-horse field. She profiles as a natural runner-up and makes excellent sense underneath in the exacta.

show2Jess Go AwayML 7/2

Jess Go Away has a 68.21 rating and the morning line of 7/2, which actually makes her a bit underlaid compared to the top two options in our analysis. Oliver E. Martinez takes the mount for trainer Arnold Lewis, and in a 12-horse maiden claiming field, she can find clean trips from the outside and grind out a third. She rounds out the trifecta combination nicely.

Our free coverage kicks off with three maiden and claiming sprints that set the tone nicely. Midnight D (Race 1, 9/5 morning line, TrackWiz rating 88.83) is the highest-rated pick among today's free races — a strong number in a maiden field going just 300 yards. In races this short, that kind of edge doesn't have much time to get buried in traffic. Get to the gate clean and it's a different story entirely.

Rc Miss G in Race 2 and Electrik in Race 3 round out the free card, both posting solid mid-to-upper 80s ratings against beatable fields. The common thread across all three: on a clear, fast surface like today's, the horse with the best early burst wins. Pace bias is real on days like this, and our free picks all project favorably in that department.

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Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A competitive claiming affair at 550 yards — the longest race of the card — where the top three horses are tightly bunched on ratings and any of them could win.

win8Heza Vicious RogueML 5/1

Heza Vicious Rogue leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and carries a 14% career win percentage — the highest conversion rate among the top contenders. Trainer Shae L. Cox sends her out at 5/1 with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. in the irons, and that's a sharp combo at Lone Star. At 550 yards, fitness and class over distance matter, and the rating edge combined with the win percentage makes her our clear top choice. The 5/1 morning line gives you a chance to get fair value on the best horse in the race.

place2KissbehavinML 3/1

Kissbehavin is the bridesmaid pick here with a rating of 79.94 and an 8% career win percentage, sitting at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Richard D. Sedillo sends her out with Ruben Delarosa, Jr., and this horse projects to run a solid race at this level. She's only a small step below the top pick on ratings, and at the longest distance on the card, she's the kind of horse that could outrun her morning line if the pace sets up right.

show3I Want a LawyerML 7/2

I Want a Lawyer comes in rated 78.32 with a 10% career win mark and opens at 7/2 — another closely matched contender in what shapes up as a legitimate three-horse race at the top. Trainer Hernesto Ramirez puts Mario Delgado on board, and the combination of solid rating and competitive win percentage makes this horse a strong show selection. In a competitive 550-yard heat, having three similarly rated horses makes trifecta coverage a smart play.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse claiming sprint at 250 yards featuring several horses with solid career win percentages — including a couple of longshots who convert at a higher clip than their odds suggest.

win9Holy MondayML 7/2

Holy Monday gets the top pick nod with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and opens at 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Adan Guzman puts Noe Villatoro on board — a combination that also appears in Race 3 on this card, showing the barn is active and confident. The 14% career win percentage is reasonable for a claiming runner, and the rating separates her from the field by more than seven points. In a 250-yard dash where the race is over almost instantly, having the top rating is a huge edge.

place5Leaving a DynastyML 3/1

Leaving a Dynasty is rated 79.51 and opens at 3/1 with Angel A. Fierro aboard for trainer Braulio Hernandez. The 16% career win percentage is solid, and the horse sits comfortably in the second tier of this competitive field. She's a natural place pick at a price that should hold up in a 12-horse field, and she profiles as the horse most likely to run the win pick down or hold second on her own.

show2This Is MarshallML 6/1

This Is Marshall at 6/1 with a 76.03 rating and a 20% career win percentage is legitimately underpriced if you take the numbers at face value. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Winston Lewis, and the win percentage jumps off the page for a 6/1 shot. In a wide-open 12-horse sprint, he's a strong show play and worth including in your trifectas.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 250 yards featuring two horses with elite ratings that are separated by just fractions of a point — this one goes down to the wire between the top two.

win9Goodtime in TexasML 7/2

Goodtime in Texas holds a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and opens at 7/2 with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. in the irons for trainer Arnold G. Herrera. The 25% career win percentage is excellent — one out of every four starts results in a win — and that kind of conversion rate is hard to ignore. He's essentially deadlocked with the place pick on our model, but the slightly higher morning line gives you a touch of value on what amounts to a coin-flip between the top two. In a 250-yard heat, gate speed is king, and this horse has the profile to break on top.

place4Sadie Sweet WattersML 2/1

Sadie Sweet Watters is right there at 85.01 on our rating and posts an eye-catching 50% career win percentage — the highest in the field by a wide margin. Trainer Arnold Lewis and jockey Oliver E. Martinez are a live combination, and the 2/1 morning line reflects her excellent conversion rate. The rating says she's essentially equal to the top pick, so the lower odds on Sadie make logical sense — but the slight rating gap drops her to our place selection.

show2One Fine WineML 9/2

One Fine Wine rates 72.61 with a 15% career win percentage and opens at 9/2 for trainer Martin Rodriguez with Alejandro Medina up. She's clearly third-best in the field by our model, but she's well clear of the rest of the horses and represents a solid show choice. At 9/2, there's legitimate value in the show spot, and she's the kind of honest claimer who runs her race consistently.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse maiden sprint at 250 yards where the morning-line favorite stands clearly above the pack on ratings, though maiden races at short distances always carry a healthy dose of unpredictability.

win7Jess Send HerML 2/1

Jess Send Her comes in as our top pick with a 79.14 TrackWiz rating — more than 15 points clear of the second-best horse in the race. Trainer Raul Ramirez puts Oliver E. Martinez on board, and this jockey appears multiple times on this card, showing he's one of the more in-demand riders at Lone Star today. At 2/1 on the morning line, the crowd agrees she's the one to beat, and the rating gap makes the case that they're right. In a maiden sprint with limited speed figure history for this group, you lean hard on the biggest number.

place11Pancho BigotesML 5/2

Pancho Bigotes is the second-best rated horse in the field at 63.63 and opens at 5/2 for trainer Marc E. Jungers with Raul Ramirez, Jr. in the saddle. The Jungers barn has multiple horses on this card, showing an active stable, and Pancho Bigotes projects as the most logical horse to threaten the top pick for second. At the short sprint distance, he's a smart exacta play underneath the favorite.

show9Mas DynastyML 3/1

Mas Dynasty comes in at 3/1 with a rating of 56.67, making him the third-best horse by our model in what is otherwise a very thin field below the top two. Francisco Calderon gets the mount for trainer Justin W. Joiner, and in a wide-open maiden field at 250 yards, a third-place effort is well within reach. He's a reliable trifecta piece at fair odds.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

The allowance race is the class event of the night — deeper field, competitive win percentages across the board, and a pair of horses at the top of the ratings who have shown they can win consistently.

win10BailleysML 3/1

Bailleys tops our model with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 33% career win percentage — one of the strongest conversion rates in the field. Trainer Ben Olaveson sends her out at 3/1 with Luis L. Vivanco aboard, and the combination of elite rating and proven ability to win is exactly what you want at the allowance level. At 330 yards, she only needs to break clean and let that talent carry her. The 3/1 morning line is fair, but our numbers say she's the right single here.

place8Brs Jimmie DeanML 7/2

Brs Jimmie Dean is the real standout of this race on career win percentage — a stunning 37% career win rate is elite for any claiming or allowance horse. Trainer Gabriel B. Burke puts Cordarelton J. Benn up at 7/2, and the horse's ability to convert makes him dangerous even behind a higher-rated top pick. He's only nine rating points below Bailleys, making him the most likely horse to beat her and a must-include in exactas.

show7Bf D RageousML 4/1

Bf D Rageous rates 66.44 with a 22% career win percentage and opens at 4/1 for trainer Eric Aguilar with Jacobo Adan Aguilar up. The Aguilar barn-jockey connection is notable — they're clearly working together in a planned fashion — and the win percentage shows this horse knows how to get to the wire in front. In an allowance field with real depth, the show spot is competitive, but Bf D Rageous has the profile to hold it.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

The finale is an 11-horse maiden at 350 yards — the deepest maiden field on the card — with one horse carrying a significant rating edge over the rest of a winless bunch.

win10Jess So FlyML 5/1

Jess So Fly is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17, opening at 5/1 — a price that feels like genuine value given how far she separates from the field. Trainer Adan Guzman puts H. Javier Hernandez on board, and Guzman is a name that keeps appearing in this card's top selections. In a 350-yard maiden race, raw ability is the great equalizer, and no horse in this field comes close to matching Jess So Fly's number. The 5/1 morning line makes her our best-value top pick of the entire card.

place9Ian LightfootML 9/2

Ian Lightfoot comes in rated 63.12 and opens at 9/2 for trainer Sergio Soto with Manuel Benavides getting the call. He's the second-best horse by our ratings in what is otherwise a very thin field, and in an 11-horse maiden sprint, clean trips go a long way. At 9/2, there's fair value in the place spot, and he's the natural landing spot for the second exotics position.

show3Papa TwoML 5/2

Papa Two rates 62.36 — nearly identical to Ian Lightfoot — and opens at 5/2 on the morning line with Ali Rivera up for trainer John A. Stinebaugh. The morning line makes him look like the public's second choice, which means he'll likely be short in the show pools, but the rating says he deserves to be in the trifecta mix. He's a safe bet to hit the board and rounds out a solid closing sequence for the card.

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Bottom line: Lone Star is playing fast, conditions are ideal, and the TrackWiz model has strong opinions across all nine races. Midnight D is the marquee free play, but the real value is spread through a premium card loaded with interesting prices and at least one longshot worth including on your tickets. Full analysis — pace, exotics, and every angle — is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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