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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 3, 2026

October 3, 202612 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a wet one at Lone Star Park today. Rain has moved through the area and the dirt is playing heavier than usual — and in quarter horse racing, where fractions of a second decide everything, track conditions matter more than almost anywhere else on the calendar. Keep that in mind all afternoon.

We've got a full 12-race card on tap, a solid mix of claiming, maiden, allowance, and stakes action, with distances ranging from a lightning-quick 250 yards all the way out to 400. The feature event is Race 11, a Stakes at 400 yards where our TrackWiz model has Kas Prietito graded at the top of the field despite going off at a fair 9/5 on the morning line.

Three races are open to everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and all three give us something to work with right out of the gate. The remaining nine races are available in our full premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 550-yard claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — one horse grades out significantly ahead of the field, but there's legitimate value hiding in the middle of the pack.

win9A RunwayML 7/5

A Runway draws the morning-line favoritism at 7/5 for good reason — our top rating of 89.42 in the field is a substantial edge over the competition. Jockey H. Javier Hernandez gets the call and lands on the most talented horse on paper. The 7% career win rate looks modest, but in a field where the second-highest rating is 74.32, the class gap here is real. At 7/5 you're not getting rich, but this is about as confident a top selection as you'll find on the card.

place8Jody JonesML 7/2

Jody Jones comes in rated 74.32 with an 11% career win rate, making him a legitimate threat to hit the board at 7/2 morning line. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is in the irons, a capable pilot who gives this runner every chance. In a field this deep, getting a horse with this profile at morning-line 7/2 in the place slot is solid value for exacta construction.

show6Chickies Kool CoronaML 12/1

Chickies Kool Corona is our show pick at 12/1 morning line, and that's where the exotic value lives in this race. Rated 72.11 — third-best in the field — with an 11% career win rate, this runner for trainer Juan Johnny M. Hernandez is significantly underlaid at double-digit odds. Including this horse in trifecta and exacta wheels underneath A Runway makes a lot of sense.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards — a true baby race where first-time starters make handicapping a guessing game, but our ratings carve out a clear tier at the top worth following.

win1Jodys Kool SecretML 5/1

Jodys Kool Secret tops our TrackWiz ratings at 77.34 in this maiden field, a significant gap above the 67.99 of the next-ranked horse. Alfredo Contreras gets the mount for trainer Javier Cruz Jr., and the 5/1 morning line makes this the second-biggest price among our top-rated runners — a nice value spot. In a maiden field where all horses are winless, ratings separation like this is one of the strongest indicators we have to work with.

place12Jh ApoliticalML 7/2

Jh Apolitical grades second in our model at 67.99 and draws a 7/2 morning line, suggesting the crowd may be on this one too. Jockey Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega picks up the mount for trainer Jacobo Mejia, a combination worth noting. The rating gap between this runner and the rest of the field — third place is Well Balanced Time at just 51.48 — makes this a strong candidate to at least fill the place slot.

show8Pursuit the CrownML 6/1

Pursuit the Crown comes in rated 51.67, narrowly edging Well Balanced Time (51.48) for third in the field, with Jesus Olivas in the saddle for trainer James J. Gonzales II. At 6/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a third-tier play in a wide-open maiden field. In a race this unpredictable, having Pursuit the Crown anchoring your show position in trifectas gives you coverage without breaking the bank.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This 250-yard starter optional claiming sprint features a pair of evenly matched top contenders separated by fewer than two rating points, setting up a potential barn-burner with real value lurking at the top of the morning line.

win4This Eagles QuirkyML 5/2

This Eagles Quirky leads our ratings at 87.81 and is installed as the 5/2 favorite — not a bad price for the top-rated horse in a field with genuine competition. Jockey Alejandro Landeros Zuniga pairs with trainer Isidro Mancillas-Lopez, and the 21% career win rate shows this horse knows how to get the job done. A 250-yard race is decided in the blink of an eye, so having the top-graded runner out of gate 4 is a clean setup.

place7Putin My Record DrML 4/1

Putin My Record Dr sits at 78.59 in our ratings and draws a 4/1 morning line — our second choice here and a legitimate challenger to the top pick. Roman Armando Huerta rides for trainer Jorge Luis Barron, and a 20% career win rate backs up the contention. If This Eagles Quirky stumbles out of the gate at these ultrashort distances, Putin My Record Dr has the talent to capitalize.

show10Fine Wine M3ML 3/1

Fine Wine M3 rounds out our top three at a rating of 76.89 with Francisco Giles in the saddle for trainer Martin Rodriguez. The 21% career win rate is identical to the top pick's, and a 3/1 morning line makes this one of the better-priced horses in our vertical. In a three-way photo scenario at 250 yards, Fine Wine M3 has the rating and the win pedigree to sneak into the exotics.

Our three free previews cover the first leg of the card, and there's a nice thread running through them: pace will be everything on a damp, potentially cuppy track. In Race 1, A Runway opens as the 7/5 morning line choice and carries our highest rating of the free races at 89.42 — that kind of number on a front-runner on a track that may be favoring early speed is worth noting. Race 2 flips the script with a Maiden Claiming sprint at 250 yards, where Jodys Kool Secret at 5/1 is our top pick — a legitimate value angle in a wide-open field. Then Race 3 brings us a Starter Optional Claiming at 250 yards, and This Eagles Quirky at 5/2 rates as the most reliable play of the trio at an 87.81 TrackWiz rating.

The common theme in today's free races: favor horses that can secure position out of the gate. On a rain-affected track, you don't want to be spotting ground early on these short sprints.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards where the morning-line favorite isn't the horse our model loves most — creating an interesting dynamic between public opinion and TrackWiz ratings.

win3Political MonkeyML 9/2

Political Monkey tops our model at 84.90 with jockey J.R. Ramirez, Jr. in the irons for trainer Shae L. Cox, and at 9/2 on the morning line there's legitimate value here. This is a maiden field with no career wins among the entrants, so our ratings separation matters — Political Monkey grades out nearly 8 points ahead of the next-best horse Ojo Caliente. Getting the top-rated runner at better than 4-1 in a straight maiden is exactly the spot TrackWiz looks for.

place11Ojo CalienteML 5/2

Ojo Caliente is the morning-line choice at 5/2, which puts it in an interesting spot — second in our ratings at 77.17 but installed as the public's top pick. Trainer J. Ryan Basham sends this one out with Alejandro Landeros Zuniga up, and the overall profile is strong enough to suggest the crowd isn't wrong to respect it. If Political Monkey falters, Ojo Caliente has the talent to win outright, and at worst it should be a factor for place.

show7Cowboys Love LadysML 2/1

Cowboys Love Ladys is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 despite grading third in our model at 69.48, which means there's real money pointing this direction. Gilberto Linares rides for trainer Oscar Nunez, and in a straight maiden the public money often lands near true quality. Slotting Cowboys Love Ladys into your show leg of trifectas gives you a horse with crowd support and a solid rating to anchor the bottom of your tickets.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A loaded 12-horse allowance sprint at 250 yards featuring several horses with strong career win percentages — this looks like a pace-pressure situation where the best-rated horse at a fair price should take control early.

win8The Hottest ChilitosML 9/2

The Hottest Chilitos leads our model at 84.90 and draws a 9/2 morning line, giving us genuine value on the top-rated horse in the field. Francisco Giles gets the mount for trainer Jesus M. Raygoza, and a 25% career win rate shows this runner is a legitimate winner at this level. In a 250-yard sprint, early speed and rating edge are paramount — The Hottest Chilitos checks both boxes.

place2Raptor StoneML 4/1

Raptor Stone grades second at 80.33 with a 12% career win rate, and Rosendo E. Pina Garcia is in the irons for trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse that sits only 4.5 points behind our top pick — in a race this short, that gap can be erased by a single good break. Raptor Stone is a strong place contender and a key piece in exacta combinations.

show6Mounte RushmoreML 10/1

Mounte Rushmore comes in at 76.88 in our ratings with a 25% career win rate — the same win percentage as several other horses in this field, but the higher rating puts this runner a tier above most. Daniel X. Garcia rides for Juan L. Vazquez, and a 10/1 morning line makes this one of the better overlay plays in the exotic pool today. The win percentage here is real, and double-digit odds in the show slot of a trifecta is where value bettors can cash big.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards where one horse stands dramatically apart from the rest of the field in our model — the question is whether the morning-line favorite can justify the short price.

win5WilbargerML 8/5

Wilbarger tops out at 89.12 in our ratings, a massive separation from the rest of the field, and draws the 8/5 morning-line chalk in this maiden claiming field. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is up for trainer Jerry W. Sewell II — a top jockey on the top-rated horse is a clean combination. When the model shows a gap this large in a maiden field, the top pick is worth taking even at a modest price.

place11Special EagleML 9/2

Special Eagle grades second in the field at 68.05 — a full 21 points behind Wilbarger — but sits at a very workable 9/2 morning line for the place slot. Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega rides for trainer Jacobo Mejia, the same trainer-jockey tandem that grabbed a place pick in Race 2, showing this pair is active and engaged today. If Wilbarger hits any trouble in the gate or down the straightaway, Special Eagle has the rating profile to collect.

show3High DashingML 2/1

High Dashing is the second-lowest odds horse in the field at 2/1 morning line despite grading third in our ratings at 61.86 — the crowd clearly respects this runner. H. Javier Hernandez takes the mount for trainer Bonifacio Bustos, and in a short sprint where public money tends to cluster on proven profiles, that support is meaningful. Using High Dashing on the show end of trifectas underneath our top two gives you a nice tri structure with solid public confidence.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse allowance at 350 yards with a wide-open top of the field — the morning-line favorites don't align with our model's top choice, creating a prime overlay opportunity midway through the card.

win8Ring a Ling DingML 6/1

Ring a Ling Ding leads our ratings at 82.71 with a 35% career win rate — that's one of the stronger win percentages in an already competitive field. Jockey Nestor Duran pairs with trainer Richard D. Sedillo, and the 6/1 morning line makes this one of the best value plays on the entire card. A 35% win rate at any level is elite, and getting that profile at 6/1 in an allowance field is exactly the overlay our model is built to find.

place6Good Blue CandyML 12/1

Good Blue Candy draws a 12/1 morning line despite a solid 60.28 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — this is an intriguing overlay. Noe Villatoro rides for trainer Adan Guzman, and while the rating puts Good Blue Candy third in the field, the morning-line price suggests the crowd is undervaluing this runner. In exactas and trifectas, sprinkling Good Blue Candy in the place spot at 12/1 is a sharp move.

show1Dr Make It SweetML 12/1

Dr Make It Sweet is our show selection at 12/1 morning line, and the 42% career win rate is the headline number here — that is the highest career win percentage in this field by a wide margin. Trainer Kash Reed sends this horse out with Juan Pulido up, and despite a rating of 58.48 that slots this runner fourth in our model, a 42% career win rate suggests the horse has simply been facing tough competition. If the pace sets up right over 350 yards, this could be a price horse that pops in the exotics.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

This 12-horse maiden sprint at 400 yards features a clear standout at the top of the morning line — but the place and show picks offer big-ticket value with matching ratings and double-digit odds.

win2Cowgirl Eats FireML 6/5

Cowgirl Eats Fire leads the field at a 89.71 rating and is installed as the 6/5 morning-line favorite — the lowest odds on today's card. Eugenio Alberto Navarrete, Jr. gets the mount for trainer S. Trey Wood, and in a pure maiden field, a rating separation this large is as close to a lock as this sport allows. The short price isn't ideal, but when the model screams this loud, you listen.

place1My Favorite AffairML 15/1

My Favorite Affair comes in rated 64.04 and draws a 15/1 morning line — that's a significant overlay for a horse that grades second in our model. Francisco Calderon rides for trainer Ricardo Aguirre, and in a maiden field where form is hard to project, getting the second-best-rated horse at 15/1 in the place spot is the kind of value that can make your exotic tickets sing. This is a prime candidate for exactas keyed underneath Cowgirl Eats Fire.

show4AdieuML 15/1

Adieu shares an identical rating with My Favorite Affair at 64.04, also draws 15/1 morning-line odds, and gives us a second live price horse for the show position. Angel A. Fierro rides for trainer Alfred A. Aparicio, and having two horses at the same model rating and the same morning-line price for the second and third spots creates a natural boxed exacta and trifecta structure. At 15/1 in the show leg, Adieu adds real payout pop to your trifecta tickets.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

One of the most competitive allowance fields on the card — three horses are tightly bunched at the top of the ratings between 81 and 88, and the morning line has them spread from 2/1 to 5/2, suggesting sharp money is already circling.

win10ArgylesML 5/2

Argyles tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 with an outstanding 36% career win rate, and Nestor Duran — who also gets the call on Ring a Ling Ding in Race 7 — is the pilot here for trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez. A 5/2 morning line on the top-rated horse with a 36% career win percentage is a solid play in a field with real competition. The rating edge is real, the rider is live, and the win percentage backs it up.

place3Js On FireML 2/1

Js On Fire rates second at 81.44 with a 31% career win rate — almost as strong a profile as Argyles — and draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism, suggesting the public may actually prefer this runner. Bryan Candanosa rides for trainer Justin W. Joiner, a combination worth respecting. At 2/1, Js On Fire looks like a competitive danger to our top pick, and a one-two exacta with these two in either order is a very playable ticket.

show2Lil Perry WagonML 9/2

Lil Perry Wagon slots into the show position with a 74.47 rating and a noteworthy 30% career win rate — third-best win percentage in a deep field. Froylan Tellez Ramirez rides for trainer Brittany N. Tellez, and the 9/2 morning line offers a reasonable price on a horse with legitimate credentials at this level. In a trifecta with the top two, Lil Perry Wagon gives you a solid third leg that isn't a throwaway.

Race 10

2:59 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A fascinating 400-yard maiden with two horses commanding the top of the model — but they're installed at vastly different odds, creating an interesting betting structure around a clear favorite and a strong second choice.

win4Flying JamesonML 6/5

Flying Jameson tops our ratings at 89.71 and draws the 6/5 morning-line chalk, with Francisco Calderon in the irons for trainer Justin W. Joiner — the same conditioner sending out Js On Fire in Race 9. In a maiden field, a rating of 89.71 is exceptional, and that Calderon-Joiner combination is clearly live on the day. Even at 6/5, the model rating here is so dominant that this is the anchor of any serious ticket.

place11Hes No Yes ManML 5/2

Hes No Yes Man is our place pick at a very appealing 5/2 morning line, rated 86.97 — a near-tie with the top pick in our model. Francisco Calderon is also listed here for trainer Leonel Hernandez, making it a same-jockey top-two situation — pay attention to who Calderon actually rides in the race. With a 20% career win rate in a mostly winless maiden field, Hes No Yes Man brings genuine experience to the table and is the most dangerous rival to Flying Jameson.

show6Kissem and LeavumML 4/1

Kissem and Leavum grades third in the field at 64.29 with a 4/1 morning line — a fair price for the third-best horse in a 12-runner maiden. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for trainer Jimmy W. Guerra, and while the rating gap from the top two is significant, in a maiden race anything can happen. Slotting Kissem and Leavum into the bottom of your trifectas gives you coverage at a manageable price.

Race 11

3:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

The day's stakes race at 400 yards — the crown jewel of the card — features an elite top tier with legitimate star power, and the morning line has the two top-rated runners as co-favorites under 2/1.

win4Kas PrietitoML 9/5

Kas Prietito leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win rate — rock-solid credentials at the stakes level. Luis Angel Maldonado rides for trainer Carlos B. Sanchez, and at 9/5 morning line the price is modest but justified by the profile. A 37% career win percentage in stakes company means this horse has been beating good horses for a long time — trust the record.

place3Bludz Valiant PolicyML 2/1

Bludz Valiant Policy is our place pick at 2/1 morning line with an 83.16 rating — and the 60% career win rate is the most eye-catching number on the entire race card today. Luis L. Vivanco gets the mount for trainer Ben Olaveson, and a horse with a 60% win rate in any context demands serious respect. The gap between this runner and Kas Prietito is narrow enough that an upset win is squarely in play.

show7Nine One WonML 5/1

Nine One Won comes in at a 79.28 rating with a 21% career win rate for trainer Raul Ramirez, with Oliver E. Martinez in the saddle. The 5/1 morning line gives you real value on a horse that grades third in the field in a race where the top two will likely take money to artificially short odds. In stakes races, price separation between the top and third horses creates opportunity — Nine One Won at 5/1 is a strong exotic play.

Race 12

3:51 AM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a 12-horse maiden sprint at 300 yards — a morning-line favorite that aligns with our top rating, and a double-digit-odds horse that grades second and screams value in the exotics.

win8Cm Heavenly CowboyML 7/5

Cm Heavenly Cowboy tops our model at 79.88 and draws the 7/5 morning-line chalk — the public and our ratings are aligned on this one. H. Javier Hernandez rides for trainer Leonardo Rivera-Antopia, and as a maiden with no career wins logged, the rating profile is what we lean on. A 7/5 price isn't generating exotic excitement, but as a win bet and the anchor of a trifecta key, Cm Heavenly Cowboy is clearly the horse to beat.

place9Mr Bordertown BuzzML 12/1

Mr Bordertown Buzz is the play of the race in terms of value — rated 73.96, second-best in the field, but drawing a 12/1 morning line. Ruben Delarosa, Jr. rides for trainer Antwain Ernest Franklin, and that price is simply too high for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. In exotics, keying Cm Heavenly Cowboy on top of Mr Bordertown Buzz in exactas could yield a significant payout if the public stays off this runner.

show2Jess a Snowy MondayML 9/2

Jess a Snowy Monday rounds out the top three at a 65.76 rating with Luis F. Palacios riding for trainer Jose Marcial Garcia. The 9/2 morning line is a fair price for a horse that slots cleanly into the third tier of this maiden, and Lr Eagle (56.70) and Jess Eye Cowboy (64.48) are close enough to keep things honest. Jess a Snowy Monday's rating edge over those rivals, however, makes it the cleaner show-position selection to complete your trifecta.

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Rain at Lone Star, 12 races, and a stakes finale headlined by Kas Prietito — it's a card worth digging into. Start with A Runway in Race 1, keep an eye on Jodys Kool Secret as your value play in Race 2, and trust This Eagles Quirky to deliver in Race 3. For everything else — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our full Stakes breakdown — the complete card is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there today.

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