Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — October 1, 2026

October 1, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a wet one at Lone Star Park today. Rain is falling across the Grand Prairie oval and the dirt is playing differently than it would on a dry afternoon — expect some unpredictable kickback in these short-format Quarter Horse sprints and keep an eye on how early speed is holding up as the card progresses.

Eight races are on the board, stretching from a lightning-quick 110-yard allowance sprint all the way out to a pair of 440-yard maiden tests. Most of the action is compressed into the 250–440 yard range, which means we're talking about races decided in roughly 13–22 seconds — so pace, gate speed, and post position matter enormously.

Three races are available free to all TrackWiz readers. The remaining five are part of our full premium breakdown. Whether you're playing a few races casually or building multi-race tickets top to bottom, there's plenty to dig into today.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden claiming sprint at 350 yards with three horses bunched tightly at the top of our ratings — expect a tight finish with very little separating the top contenders at the wire.

win8An Eagles GameML 7/2

An Eagles Game (No. 8) tops our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 77.75, the highest mark in the field, and draws a solid connection with jockey Ali Rivera and trainer John A. Stinebaugh. The morning line of 7/2 offers fair value for the top-rated horse in what is essentially a wide-open maiden field. In a short 350-yard dash where early explosiveness is everything, our model likes what this horse projects to bring to the gate.

place1Rg Jessa EaglelettaML 3/1

Rg Jessa Eagleletta (No. 1) comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 77.16 — nearly identical to the top pick — making her a legitimate threat to win outright and an excellent place inclusion. Trainer Jose N. Garcia hands the reins to jockey Daniel X. Garcia in what projects as a strong inside post setup for a short sprint. The razor-thin gap between the top two rated horses in this field makes her a prime candidate for exacta coverage.

show2Zenith ZtormiML 8/1

Zenith Ztormi (No. 2) posts a TrackWiz rating of 74.43, the third-best figure on the board, and draws an 8/1 morning line that offers genuine overlay value if you're building exotic tickets. Trainer Juan Johnny M. Hernandez sends out this runner with jockey Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. aboard, a pairing worth noting. In a race where the top three rated horses are separated by fewer than four points, including Zenith Ztormi underneath in trifectas and superfectas is a smart play.

Race 2

8:31 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A loaded 12-horse maiden field at 350 yards where the morning line favorite sits at 2/1 but our TrackWiz model has identified a significant overlay hiding near the top of the program — this one could offer serious value at the windows.

win2Jess Perrys CowgirlML 12/1

Jess Perrys Cowgirl (No. 2) is the most compelling number in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, the highest in the field by a comfortable margin, yet she's sitting at 12/1 on the morning line. That's a massive disconnect between what the public is expecting and what our model projects. Trainer Christopher Earlywine puts Oliver E. Martinez in the irons, and if Cowgirl fires anywhere close to her rating in this short 350-yard dash, she'll be a significant overlay winner. Circle this one hard — it's the kind of value play that makes the exotics sing.

place7Bonita Sin TachaML 3/1

Bonita Sin Tacha (No. 7) rates second in the field at 59.37 and draws a 3/1 morning line, making her the second choice on paper and a logical place contender. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh and jockey Gilberto Linares combine in what looks like a well-spotted effort. She profiles as the most consistent piece of the puzzle if the top pick falters out of the gate.

show8Cyber Sweet HeartML 2/1

Cyber Sweet Heart (No. 8) is the morning line public choice at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 — she's lower-rated than both our win and place picks, which tells you something about where we think the value lies. That said, jockey Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. is live on her for trainer Bradley C. Bolen, and the public's faith isn't entirely unfounded. She makes sense as a show hedge and a key in trifectas, even if our model suggests she's vulnerable at the top.

Race 3

8:57 PM EDT

Maiden · 440 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden field stretching out to 440 yards where one horse stands clearly above the pack on our ratings — a rare situation where the top pick carries both a strong number AND a reasonable price.

win3The King KarverML 4/1

The King Karver (No. 3) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62 — a full 10 points clear of the second-best horse — and is correctly installed as the 4/1 second choice on the morning line. Trainer John Boegner, Jr. puts Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. aboard, a jockey who has shown well in short-distance sprint engagements here. At 440 yards, horses with elite quickness profiles often run away from maiden fields before the competition can respond, and The King Karver's rating suggests he has exactly that kind of edge.

place2Pyc DesignML 7/2

Pyc Design (No. 2) rates second in the field at 75.26 and carries a morning line of 7/2, making him the public's top choice. Trainer Waylan Melton deploys Juan Pulido in what looks like a confident tactical setup. With a 10-point rating gap between him and the top pick, he's best framed as a strong place play and an essential exacta partner.

show7Cowboy Bob 123ML 3/1

Cowboy Bob 123 (No. 7) rates third at 71.69 with a 3/1 morning line, giving trainer John A. Stinebaugh another runner in the mix. Jockey Gilberto Linares has familiarity with this kind of maiden sprint format, and the rating gap between Cowboy Bob and the fourth-ranked horse is meaningful. In trifecta construction, pairing our top three in some order is exactly how we'd approach this race.

Our free coverage today spans Races 1, 2, and 3 — and there's a real range of risk and reward across that trio. An Eagles Game opens the card in a maiden claimer at 7/2 on the morning line, and our TrackWiz rating of 77.75 gives that price a fair bit of respect. Race 3 is where we see the highest-rated free pick of the bunch: The King Karver comes in at 85.62 with a reasonable 4/1 morning line in the longer 440-yard maiden, suggesting a horse that's genuinely well-regarded without being overbet.

The real eyebrow-raiser in the free races is Race 2, where Jess Perrys Cowgirl sits at 12/1 on the morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 73.96. In a short-field maiden sprint on a wet track, that gap between public perception and our model is the kind of value angle worth noting. We're not saying she wins — but at that price, she doesn't have to run perfectly to pay off a small investment.

Send me tomorrow's free Lone Star card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse claiming sprint at 250 yards where multiple horses carry legitimate win percentages and our ratings reveal a clear top trio — but value hides underneath the favorites in this one.

win5Justice MelodyML 9/2

Justice Melody (No. 5) tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 4 at 79.66 and brings a career win percentage of 10% — not flashy, but respectable in a claiming field of this depth. Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz sends her out with Ruben Delarosa, Jr., a jockey who handles the short sprint format with authority. At 9/2 on the morning line, she's reasonably priced as the top-rated runner, and 250 yards is a blink-and-it's-over format where the horse that breaks clean and rates highest tends to hit the board.

place9Spirit BokML 12/1

Spirit Bok (No. 9) is the value play of this race — a TrackWiz rating of 73.96, third-best in the field, but sitting at 12/1 on the morning line as a significant public underlay candidate. Trainer Brian Stroud sends him out with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. aboard, and Spirit Bok's 14% career win percentage is one of the stronger figures on the board. That combination of a high rating and a double-digit morning line is exactly the kind of spot our model targets for place and exotic plays.

show2Interesting WalkML 7/2

Interesting Walk (No. 2) rounds out the top three in our ratings at 70.2 and draws a 7/2 morning line as one of the public's top choices. The 8% career win percentage is modest, but trainer Chris Gandarilla appears to have this horse placed correctly in a claiming event, with Jesus Orta Martinez in the irons. He's the logical show anchor in a race where we believe the value is above him, not below.

Race 5

9:49 PM EDT

Maiden · 440 yd · Dirt

Twelve maiden runners go 440 yards with a standout overlay lurking at the outside post — our model has identified a horse the morning line has dramatically underestimated in what could be the best value play of the night.

win12Valiant LightsML 6/1

Valiant Lights (No. 12) posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 and yet is sitting at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between model strength and public price is exactly the kind of overlay we love to highlight. Trainer Marla Dayana Vargas puts Benjamin Mendez Jr. aboard from the outside post, which can be a factor in sprint routes but doesn't dampen our confidence given the rating advantage. In maiden company at 440 yards, a horse with this kind of rating edge often has the tools to overcome the post.

place7Oh Eagle RoseML 9/2

Oh Eagle Rose (No. 7) rates second in the field at 76.69 and draws a 9/2 morning line, giving trainer Richard D. Sedillo a well-positioned runner with Ruben Delarosa, Jr. in the saddle. The rating is close enough to the top pick that she could absolutely win outright, but the morning line prices her as a secondary option — making her ideal for exacta and place wagering. Don't overlook the fact that 76.69 would top the charts in many other races on tonight's card.

show4Barbed WiredML 3/1

Barbed Wired (No. 4) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 76.51 — essentially tied with Oh Eagle Rose for second-best in the field. Trainer Marc E. Jungers deploys Raul Ramirez, Jr., and this horse will attract the majority of public money. The slight rating discount relative to our top two picks keeps him in the show slot for our analysis, but he's absolutely a live contender for the top spot if the public knows something the morning line doesn't.

Race 6

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden sprint at 350 yards that looks like a two-horse race at the top of our ratings — a rare domination scenario where our top two picks separate from the field by a significant margin.

win4Candy in My ArmsML 9/5

Candy in My Arms (No. 4) leads all horses in this race with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — one of the highest figures you'll see in any race on tonight's card. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera up for a connection that has looked sharp throughout the card, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the public's recognition of this horse's quality. At 350 yards, elite-rated horses in maiden company tend to wire the field cleanly, and Candy in My Arms fits that profile perfectly.

place12Lethal WindML 2/1

Lethal Wind (No. 12) is right behind the top pick with a rating of 85.29 and draws a 2/1 morning line — making this a legitimate two-horse race at the top according to both our model and the oddsmakers. Trainer Wesley T. Giles sends Gabriel Medrano to the gate from the outside post, and the outside post in a short sprint requires a clean break. If Candy in My Arms stumbles or misses the break, Lethal Wind has the rating to steal this outright.

show8Revenant MarkML 5/2

Revenant Mark (No. 8) drops dramatically from the top two at a rating of 57.5 but draws a 5/2 morning line, suggesting the public views this race differently than our model does. Trainer Kash Reed and jockey Juan Pulido make for a capable pairing, and at 5/2, Revenant Mark figures to attract third-choice money that could pay modestly. He's best used as a show hedge and a trifecta key in the third slot, especially given the wide ratings gap separating the top two from the rest of the field.

Race 7

10:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse allowance sprint at just 110 yards — the shortest distance on the card — where multiple horses show meaningful career win percentages and our top two picks both carry 8/1 morning lines as legitimate overlays.

win12LawbossML 8/1

Lawboss (No. 12) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 with a 12% career win percentage and a morning line of 8/1 — that price is a significant overlay for the top-rated horse in an allowance field. Trainer Rene Talamantes deploys Rosendo E. Pina Garcia from the outside post, and at 110 yards, post position matters less than raw explosiveness out of the gate. Lawboss projects to be the quickest of the quick in this field, and our model believes the public is sleeping on him.

place11Putin My Record DrML 8/1

Putin My Record Dr (No. 11) rates second at 78.00 with a 20% career win percentage — the highest win rate among our top picks in this race. Trainer Jorge Luis Barron sends Roman Armando Huerta to the irons, and that one-in-five career strike rate in a horse that rates this highly suggests a consistent, professional runner. At 8/1, like the top pick, he's another overlay in a race where the betting public may be overrating the shorter-priced horses.

show7Lil Miss CartelML 6/1

Lil Miss Cartel (No. 7) rounds out our top three at a rating of 73.24 with an impressive 20% career win percentage matching our place pick. Trainer Marla Dayana Vargas and jockey Jonathan Dominguez team up in what looks like a strong situational play at 6/1. At that price, she offers show value and exotic leverage in a race where three horses with nearly identical win rates occupy our top positions.

Race 8

11:07 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

The nightcap at 300 yards features the heaviest favorite on the entire card — a 6/5 morning line shot that our model backs strongly — but two horses rated above 84 sit close behind and keep this from being a total single-horse race.

win9Jd Sweet SuccessML 6/5

Jd Sweet Success (No. 9) is the top-rated horse on the card in Race 8 at a TrackWiz figure of 87.67, and the 6/5 morning line tells you the public agrees. Trainer Justin W. Joiner puts Francisco Calderon in the irons for what projects as the most likely wire-to-wire performance of the night. In a 300-yard dash — over in seconds — horses with elite ratings in maiden claiming company typically don't give rivals time to run them down, and Jd Sweet Success looks like the class of this field.

place4Gv Double Doc DashML 3/1

Gv Double Doc Dash (No. 4) is no pushover here — a rating of 86.45 makes him the second-best horse on our board and only 1.22 points behind the favorite. Trainer Alex Villarreal puts Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. aboard, a jockey who is live on multiple mounts tonight. If Jd Sweet Success stumbles at the break — and at 6/5, the risk-to-reward on a win bet is narrow — Gv Double Doc Dash at 3/1 is a significantly more attractive play for place bettors.

show1Doncha KnowML 5/1

Doncha Know (No. 1) rounds out the top three with a rating of 84.17 and draws a 5/1 morning line from the rail. Trainer Martin Rodriguez deploys Alejandro Medina from the inside post, which in a short sprint can be advantageous for a clean, unobstructed break. Three horses rated above 84 in the same race is unusual depth for a maiden claiming event, and trifecta bettors would be wise to mix and match this trio in multiple combinations.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's Lone Star card is short on distance but long on intrigue — wet dirt, a credible longshot angle in Race 2, and two high-rated horses anchoring the premium half of the card. Our best free bets center on The King Karver and An Eagles Game, with Jess Perrys Cowgirl as a live price to sprinkle underneath. For the full card breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket strategy, subscribers can access everything through TrackWiz — check out our plans at /pricing if you're not already on board. Good luck out there, and mind the mud.

← All Lone Star picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free