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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 26, 2026

September 26, 202612 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a scorcher at Lone Star Park this Saturday — clear skies and 92°F temperatures greet a full 12-race card of quarter horse action on the dirt. Heat like this can take a toll on horses in longer sprints, so pay close attention to how horses handle the conditions as the afternoon wears on.

Today's card is loaded with variety: you've got maiden events to kick things off, a pair of stakes races to sharpen the day's edge, and claiming contests sprinkled throughout that offer real betting opportunity for sharp players. Distances range from a lightning-quick 220 yards all the way out to 870 yards, so there's something for every type of handicapper.

TrackWiz has you covered on all 12 races. The first three are free for everyone — dive in and get your bearings before the premium card takes over.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 870 yards where TrackWiz ratings separate the field into clear tiers — but first-time starters mean anything can happen in the quarter-horse sprint format.

win7Asc JettazoomML 2/1

Asc Jettazoom draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, a significant edge over the competition, and the morning line of 2/1 reflects the confidence the morning-line maker shares with our model. Trainer Jose Dolores Camacho sends this one out with Diego Contreras in the irons, a team worth watching in maiden company. With a rating gap of over 13 points between Asc Jettazoom and the next-closest rival, this is about as clear a top selection as you'll find in a maiden field at this distance.

place1Sun RiverML 3/1

Sun River breaks from the rail under Claudio Ponce Aguilar for trainer Ricardo Aguirre, posting a solid 75.3 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. The 3/1 morning line is fair value for a horse projecting this well in a race where the win pick figures to face some early pressure. As a place play, Sun River offers a reasonable cushion at a workable price.

show4Perry MiracleML 7/2

Perry Miracle sits just beneath Sun River with a 73.98 rating and draws post 4 with J.R. Ramirez, Jr. aboard for trainer Zachary Quezada. The middle post is a solid draw for the 870-yard distance, avoiding any potential early traffic issues. At 7/2 on the morning line, Perry Miracle rounds out the top three in our model and makes sense as an exotic anchor.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 300 yards where a morning-line overlay hides in plain sight — our top-rated horse opens at 2/1 while a legitimate value angle lurks at double-digit odds.

win7GiocosaML 2/1

Giocosa tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and goes postward as the 2/1 morning-line choice under Alejandro Landeros Zuniga for trainer J. Ryan Basham. At the ultra-short 300-yard distance, gate speed and natural class separate horses quickly, and Giocosa's rating advantage is the largest of any top pick on today's card in a claiming field. A 6% career win rate is modest, but the rating model picks up what raw win percentage can miss, and Basham has this one in the right spot.

place4Mr Perry CuervoML 12/1

Mr Perry Cuervo is a legitimate value target at 12/1 on the morning line. His TrackWiz rating of 70.16 ranks third in the field, and his 20% career win rate is the best among the top-rated horses — that's real production. Trainer Manuel Gonzalez IV teams up with Noe Villatoro, and at those odds, this horse pays nicely in exacta and trifecta plays if he fires.

show2SnazzeeML 3/1

Snazzee carries a 67.08 rating and the 3/1 morning line, checking in with a 10% career win percentage that's respectable in claiming company. Jockey Gilberto Linares takes the call for trainer Juan Manuel Baeza, a pairing that should have this one ready to run. In a short field at 300 yards, Snazzee's positional speed figures to keep her competitive for a share.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

The day's first stakes race at 870 yards features a clear top choice backed by the field's strongest rating, but there's a potential double-digit longshot in the show spot worth stashing in your trifectas.

win1WynnchesterML 6/5

Wynnchester is the class of this stakes field, posting the top TrackWiz rating at 89.71 and opening as the 6/5 morning-line favorite. A 19% career win rate is excellent for any horse at this level, and trainer Justin W. Joiner — who also saddles Red Jet in this same race — knows this horse's capabilities well. Mario Delgado gets the mount, and with that rating advantage and win percentage, Wynnchester looks like one of the strongest individual profiles on the card.

place5Dm Special CatML 2/1

Dm Special Cat rates second in the field at 79.94 with a 15% career win rate, and Claudio Ponce Aguilar takes over in the irons for trainer Kie Mushinski. The 2/1 morning line makes this a fair price for a horse that figures to track the favorite through the run. A 10-point rating gap between Dm Special Cat and the third-best horse in the field suggests this could be a two-horse race at the top.

show3Red JetML 15/1

Red Jet is the one to watch at 15/1 on the morning line — that's a juicy overlay for a stakes-quality entrant. Trainer Justin W. Joiner also conditions the favorite Wynnchester, meaning this barn clearly knows how to prepare horses for 870-yard stakes company. A 62.97 rating won't beat the top pair clean, but in trifecta coverage, Red Jet at big odds is too cheap to ignore.

Our three free plays span the early portion of the card and hit on two very different distances. In Race 1, Asc Jettazoom draws our attention in the 870-yard maiden claiming opener — the longer format is where class and stamina start to separate fields, and our rating of 88.54 gives this one a meaningful edge at a fair morning line of 2/1. Race 2 flips the script entirely with a blazing 300-yard claiming dash, where Giocosa matches that same 88.54 rating and figures to be right there at the break — in a race this short, there's almost no margin for error.

The headliner of the free races is Race 3, a 870-yard stakes event where Wynnchester tops our board with a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and carries 6/5 morning line chalk. Stakes company at distance is where the quality shows — and Wynnchester looks like the real deal. These three races are a great starting point, but the full story unfolds in Races 4 through 12.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint at 400 yards headlined by a heavy even-money chalk who posted the highest TrackWiz rating in the field — this one shapes up as a top-heavy affair with legitimate supporting players battling for the minor spots.

win2Midnight DML EVN

Midnight D draws the rail, earns a perfect 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on today's card — and goes postward at even money for trainer Bradley C. Bolen with Francisco Giles up. In a maiden field where no horse has race-won history to compare, rating edges carry extra weight, and a 90.0 is an emphatic statement by our model. The even-money price is short, but the rating justifies the confidence.

place5Threat Levl MidnightML 9/2

Threat Levl Midnight posts a 64.76 rating for trainer Alfred A. Aparicio and Ruben Delarosa, Jr., slotting in as the logical second horse in the field with a 9/2 morning line. The name might raise eyebrows but the rating is real — a 13-point gap separates this horse from the show pick, suggesting a genuine claim to the runner-up spot. Aparicio has fielded competitive runners throughout today's card, and this one figures to run her race.

show4Political AssasinML 4/1

Political Assasin (trainer Elida Bustamante, jockey Froylan Tellez Ramirez) sits at 4/1 with a 63.16 rating, right on the heels of the place pick. The modest gap between the place and show picks here means the third spot is genuinely competitive, and at 4/1, this horse offers fair value in trifecta combinations. Bustamante's entry deserves respect in a maiden field where experience separating the horses is limited.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A deep eleven-horse claiming field at 400 yards where the top TrackWiz rating carries a steep class advantage — but a strong supporting cast keeps the exotic pools interesting.

win5Astronomical LoveML 7/2

Astronomical Love leads all comers with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at 7/2 for trainer Joe Chapa with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. in the irons. That rating stands nearly 20 points clear of the next-best horse in the field, a significant edge in a crowded claiming field where margins matter. A 5% career win rate seems low on the surface, but the model sees talent that the win record doesn't yet reflect — this looks like a horse on the rise.

place3RusselML 5/2

Russel rates second in the field at 66.46 with an 18% career win rate that backs up his profile as a legitimate contender. Trainer Chris Gandarilla sends out Jesus Orta Martinez, and the 5/2 morning line suggests public respect as well. In an 11-horse field, Russel's combination of a solid rating and proven winning ability makes him a safe landing spot for the place slot in your exactas.

show11Heza Vicious RogueML 8/1

Heza Vicious Rogue at 8/1 is worth including in exotics, posting a 64.54 rating for trainer Shae L. Cox with Claudio Ponce Aguilar up. A 14% career win rate shows this horse can find the winner's circle, and at eight times your money on the morning line, you're getting real overlay value for a third-best-rated horse in the field. Cox has multiple entries across today's card, signaling an active barn in form.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

Twelve maidens go to post in a 350-yard dirt sprint, and the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with the top TrackWiz ratings — creating a value scenario where our top pick opens at 8/1.

win6Geared DownML 8/1

Geared Down tops the TrackWiz ratings among all twelve runners at 79.79 and yet opens at a generous 8/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful overlay by our model's standards. Trainer Samantha A. Pena sends out Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr., one of the more active jockeys on the Lone Star circuit, and at 350 yards this pair needs to break sharp and stay clean. The gap between Geared Down and the morning-line favorite King Baja (57.50 rating) is substantial, making this a prime spot to take a shot at value.

place10Hes RustlessML 7/2

Hes Rustless posts a 77.96 rating — second-best in the field — and opens at 7/2 on the morning line, which is fair but not a bargain. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh saddles Gilberto Linares here, and the Stinebaugh barn has a presence at today's meet. If Geared Down gets any trouble out of the gate in this large field, Hes Rustless is positioned to grab the key spot.

show2King BajaML 5/2

King Baja draws post 2 with Juan Pulido up for trainer Kash Reed, carrying a 57.50 rating and the 5/2 morning line — the most public support in the field. The public price doesn't match our rating, but inside posts at short distances can manufacture enough early position to stay involved. At 5/2 in a twelve-horse maiden, King Baja is a reasonable hedge in trifecta coverage even if our model prefers the overlays above him.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming event at 550 yards features a clear top-rated runner at a fair price, plus a legit double-digit show pick that gives trifecta players a reason to stay wide.

win8Dont Let Me DownnML 3/1

Dont Let Me Downn posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 87.08 and opens at 3/1 — a reasonable morning-line price for a horse this clearly rated above the field. Trainer Richard D. Sedillo teams with Juan Pulido, and with an 11% career win rate, this horse has shown enough ability to score. At 550 yards — a middle ground between the sprint distances on today's card — tactical speed and rating strength both matter, and Dont Let Me Downn has both.

place1Heza KvnML 2/1

Heza Kvn is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with a 77.66 rating and an impressive 22% career win rate — that's legitimate production. Trainer Arnold Lewis teams with Luis L. Vivanco on the rail, and from post 1 in a Starter Optional Claiming event, breaking cleanly is everything. The combination of a strong win percentage and a solid rating makes Heza Kvn the kind of horse you want underneath in your exacta.

show6Noble Fast ManML 10/1

Noble Fast Man opens at 10/1 with a 65.94 rating, ranking third in the field and offering real overlay value in exotic wagering. Trainer Jose Antonio De La Rosa sends Oliver E. Martinez aboard, and an 8% career win rate in this company is workable. The gap between Noble Fast Man and the horses below him in the ratings is meaningful enough that a piece of the show pool at 10/1 is a defensible bet.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint at 330 yards where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — creating a genuine overlay opportunity right at the top of our analysis.

win1Flying G LitosML 8/1

Flying G Litos tops the TrackWiz ratings at 75.73 yet opens at a very generous 8/1 morning line, a significant disconnect that our model flags as a prime value play. Trainer Arnold Lewis sends out Oliver E. Martinez, and a 14% career win rate tells us this horse can close the deal when the conditions are right. At 330 yards, the break is everything, and Flying G Litos' rating edge over the morning-line favorite gives us confidence this is the right horse at the right price.

place7Ml Sr Hayden JamesML 2/1

Ml Sr Hayden James opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice, backed by a 74.78 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — one of the stronger career win marks among today's top picks. Trainer Arnold G. Herrera sends out Ruben Delarosa, Jr., and this horse is clearly respected in the wagering. The separation between Ml Sr Hayden James and our win pick is razor-thin in ratings, so this figures to be a two-horse battle at the top of the exacta.

show6Panther PursuitML 5/2

Panther Pursuit brings a stunning 50% career win rate to the post — the highest of any horse in this field — paired with trainer Kash Reed and jockey Juan Pulido, a live combination at Lone Star. The 57.50 TrackWiz rating trails the top two, but a horse that wins half its starts commands respect regardless of model output. At 5/2 on the morning line, Panther Pursuit is a must-include in trifectas.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

Twelve maiden claimers line up at the ultrashort 220-yard distance, where our model is high on a pair of horses who project significantly above their morning-line prices.

win8Iceman WattersML 5/2

Iceman Watters carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and opens at 5/2 — a fair price that still offers value given the rating dominance over this twelve-horse field. Trainer Arnold Lewis teams with Oliver E. Martinez, and Lewis has been active and productive across today's full card. At 220 yards, you're basically looking at a standing start — rating and readiness are paramount, and Iceman Watters checks both boxes.

place4Miss BogartML 7/2

Miss Bogart posts an 81.15 rating and opens at 7/2 for trainer Riley S. Aguilar with Jacobo Adan Aguilar in the saddle — a family operation that knows this horse intimately. A rating gap of over 16 points separates Miss Bogart from the show pick, suggesting the top two in our analysis could run away from the field. At 7/2 in a twelve-horse maiden claimer, Miss Bogart is an excellent place bet on her own merits.

show11Addicts PaintedwagonML 3/1

Addicts Paintedwagon checks in third on our ratings at 64.40 and opens at 3/1, which is a fair price for a horse this many points behind the top two. Trainer Francisco J. Montiel sends out Alejandro Landeros Zuniga, who has multiple mounts on today's card. In trifecta coverage, Addicts Paintedwagon provides a meaningful ratings edge over the remaining nine horses and is a logical anchor for the third slot.

Race 10

2:59 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A twelve-horse Optional Claiming sprint at 300 yards where the TrackWiz top pick carries a morning-line price that suggests slight undervaluation — and the show pick at 9/2 adds real trifecta depth.

win8Eyeza Candy CartelML 3/1

Eyeza Candy Cartel leads all twelve runners with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 33% career win rate — that combination of model strength and proven results is exactly what we look for in a top pick. Trainer Ben Olaveson sends out Luis L. Vivanco at 3/1 on the morning line, and in an Optional Claiming spot at 300 yards, class and gate speed carry the day. The 33% win rate is elite by any measure and anchors our confidence here.

place1Mm RampageML 5/2

Mm Rampage opens as the 5/2 morning-line second choice with an 81.27 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — both strong numbers in a competitive field. Trainer S. Trey Wood teams with Ricky Ramirez, and this horse's rating is the second-best among all twelve entrants. The public agrees with our model on this one, making Mm Rampage a consensus play for the place slot.

show12SunshiningML 9/2

Sunshining carries a 76.02 rating, a 25% career win rate, and the 9/2 morning line for trainer Chris Gandarilla with Juan Pulido up. A 25% career win rate in claiming company is excellent and tells you this horse knows how to reach the winner's circle. At 9/2 in a twelve-horse field, Sunshining is a smart trifecta investment for players looking to maximize returns on the bottom of the ticket.

Race 11

3:25 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

The day's second stakes race at 400 yards features a heavy hitter at the top of the field, but a double-digit overlay in the place spot makes this card one of the most intriguing for exotic bettors all day.

win3Im a Pretty MessML 8/5

Im a Pretty Mess is the standout of this stakes field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating, an outstanding 33% career win rate, and a morning line of 8/5 reflecting widespread respect for this runner. Trainer Shae L. Cox — one of the most active trainers on today's card with multiple entries — puts J.R. Ramirez, Jr. in the irons, a strong combination in stakes company. A one-in-three career win rate in stakes conditions is the kind of stat that doesn't lie, and our model fully agrees.

place1Mitoles PrincessML 10/1

Mitoles Princess opens at 10/1 with a 74.1 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — and that morning-line price is a genuine overlay for a horse rated this highly. Trainer Kie Mushinski sends out Claudio Ponce Aguilar, who has been busy throughout today's card. In a stakes race where Im a Pretty Mess will command most of the public money, Mitoles Princess at double digits is the kind of exacta price that can make your day.

show8Paint This RoseML 2/1

Paint This Rose posts a 58.54 rating for trainer Kevin Willis with Mario Delgado up, going postward at 2/1 — the public's second choice. The 14% career win rate is solid, and at 2/1, this horse will anchor a lot of exacta tickets. Our model rates Mitoles Princess above Paint This Rose, so if you're playing trifectas, consider using our order: Im a Pretty Mess on top, Mitoles Princess second, Paint This Rose third.

Race 12

3:51 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a twelve-horse Allowance sprint at 400 yards where the TrackWiz top pick holds a commanding rating edge but a value play in the show position at 15/1 catches the eye.

win11Won Salty CoronaML 9/5

Won Salty Corona leads the Allowance field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — among the highest marks of any horse on today's full card — and opens at a workable 9/5 for trainer Leonel Hernandez with Adrian X. Morales in the irons. A 7% career win rate seems modest, but the model is picking up on ability that hasn't fully translated to wins yet, a common pattern in horses moving through allowance conditions. At 9/5 in a twelve-horse field, Won Salty Corona is the most defensible top pick on the closing race of the night.

place4Ym FlyinML 2/1

Ym Flyin rates second in the field at 72.33 and opens at 2/1 for trainer Enrique Alvarado with Oliver E. Martinez up — a combination that has been active and competitive at this meet. A 11% career win rate shows some capability in allowance company, and the 16-point rating gap between Won Salty Corona and Ym Flyin is significant but not unbridgeable. As the public's second choice, Ym Flyin is a solid exacta partner with the top pick.

show5Cholula Sinn FeinML 15/1

Cholula Sinn Fein opens at 15/1 with a 53.84 rating and a 14% career win rate — and that morning-line price is where the value angle lives on this ticket. Trainer Angel Sanchez sends out Arturo Alvarez, and in a twelve-horse Allowance field where the top two command most of the public money, a 15/1 shot with a legitimate rating profile is precisely the kind of trifecta closer that pays serious dividends when it fires. Don't dismiss this one in your late-race exotics.

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It's a deep, fast card at Lone Star under a hot Texas sun. Wynnchester in the Race 3 stakes is our marquee free play, while Im a Pretty Mess and Won Salty Corona headline the premium side. Don't miss the longshot angles lurking in the back half of the card — that's where the value lives today. Full analysis for all 12 races is available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck, and as always — bet smart.

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