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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 12, 2026

June 12, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on June 12, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, June 12, 2026

Race 11RB DATE NYGHTML 8/57:35 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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It's a hot Friday afternoon at Lone Star Park — 90 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the grand prairie oval is serving up an 8-race card that has something for every kind of player. From sharp Stakes action in the early going to a pair of turf routes that could produce some serious pace drama, today's card is worth your full attention.

The heat is a real factor to weigh. Triple-digit-adjacent temps at a Texas track in June can take a toll on horses going longer distances, and that turf in Races 5 and 8 will be worth watching in warm-up. Keep an eye on any late scratches tied to the conditions — horses that prefer a stamina-draining pace scenario may be flattered, while one-run closers could be compromised if the ground firms up.

We've got three free race previews unlocked for everyone today, including both Stakes races that kick off the card. Let's dig in.

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Race 1

7:35 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint that splits cleanly along stable lines — Torrez vs. Padilla — with perfect career records on both sides making this a tricky puzzle despite the short field.

win1RB DATE NYGHTML 8/5

RB Date Nyght tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59 and carries a perfect career win record into this spot, which is as clean a résumé as you'll find in a five-horse field. Trainer Jerenesto Torrez sends this one out as the morning-line favorite at 8/5, and jockey Weston Hamilton knows how to get horses to the wire in sprints. The 6-furlong dirt distance suits this profile, and the rating edge over the field — including stablemate RB Burn the Bridge — gives us enough confidence to tab this as our top selection.

place2UPTOWN BADDECISIONSML 2/1

Uptown Baddecisions checks in with a 58.33 rating and a 50% career win rate, making this Carlos Padilla runner a legitimate contender at 2/1 on the morning line. Rodolfo Guerra picks up the mount, and that Padilla barn has three horses in here — so they clearly have confidence in this entry. At a price slightly better than the favorite, this is a solid place play if you want to structure an exacta around the top two.

show4RB BURN THE BRIDGEML 5/2

RB Burn the Bridge is the other Torrez-trained entry and actually carries the field's best average speed figure at 50, while also posting a perfect career win rate. The 5/2 morning line makes sense given the quality in this race, and Jose L. Alvarez takes the mount for a stable that clearly fires both barrels today. If the pace favors the second Torrez runner, this one could roll right past the favorite — making it a key show ticket and a live exacta threat.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

8:02 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The Torrez barn looks like it loaded up for this one, sending out three horses including a monster 89.71 rating that towers over everyone else in the field — but can the morning-line chalk justify 6/5 in a stakes sprint?

win5RB MADE YOU LOOKML 6/5

RB Made You Look is the most dominant rating in today's entire card at 89.71 — a number that laps the field by a wide margin — and Weston Hamilton, who also rides the Race 1 winner for this card, takes the call at 6/5. The Torrez barn has cornered this race with three entries, and this is clearly the stable's primary weapon. Even with a 0% career win rate, the TrackWiz model sees something in the underlying form that screams upside, and at a mile-and-a-half equivalent in value on a sprint, this is the horse to beat.

place3RB PROM QUEENML 8/5

RB Prom Queen is the only horse in the field with an actual win on her record (50% career win rate), which stands out in a field where four of six have never visited the winner's circle. Iram Vargas Diego gets the mount for the Torrez barn, and a 59 rating puts her solidly in contention for the exacta. At 8/5 morning line, she's not a value play to win, but as a place ticket behind the chalk, she brings real form credentials.

show2RB GIRLFRYNDML 5/1

RB Girlfrynd rounds out the Torrez trio and rates third in this field at 53.33, with a 49 average speed figure matching stablemate RB Prom Queen. Jose L. Alvarez, who rides RB Burn the Bridge in Race 1, gets on here at 5/1 — a price that offers some exotic value. In a race where the Torrez stable could easily fill the top three spots, this one's worth including in trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first two races hand us a pair of 6-furlong Stakes sprints on the dirt, and honestly, that's a great way to open a card — fast horses, short distances, and results that come quick. RB DATE NYGHT (8/5 morning line) tops our picks in Race 1 with a TrackWiz rating of 59, while Race 2 is where the real fireworks may happen: RB MADE YOU LOOK comes in at a tight 6/5 morning line and carries an impressive 89.71 rating — one of the strongest numbers on the entire card. When a horse grades that high and the crowd already likes them, you're not getting overlay value, but you are getting conviction. Race 3 shifts to a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight sprint, where Connie'scalculator (5/2) earns our top nod. Maiden races are always a bit of a puzzle, but at 5 furlongs on dirt in this heat, early speed is a premium — and our analysis suggests she has it.

The common thread through these three free races? Speed. All three are sprints on the main track, and on a warm day like today at Lone Star, horses that can establish position early and avoid traffic trouble should have a distinct edge. Don't sleep on pace scenario when you're making your decisions.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:29 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden sprint with first-time starters across the board — no career speed figures to lean on, so trainer reputation and TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting in sorting out this 5-furlong debut field.

win5Connie'scalculatorML 5/2

Connie'scalculator draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 57.5 and gets the services of meet leader Weston Hamilton, who's already tabbed on two winners earlier in this card. Danny Pish saddles this one alongside Volden, but the rating edge here is clear — Connie'scalculator is a full point-plus ahead of any rival. In a maiden sprint with no speed figures to compare, the combination of a strong TrackWiz model score and a top jockey booking is enough to make this our top selection at a fair 5/2 morning line.

place7Ruby ExpressML 3/1

Ruby Express brings perhaps the most compelling barn angle in this race — Steven M. Asmussen is one of the most accomplished trainers in North America, and Erik Asmussen takes the mount, making this a genuine family operation. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in the field, and the 3/1 morning line is honest. Asmussen debuts winners at a consistently strong rate, and that pedigree of preparation matters in maiden sprints where raw talent often shows up ready.

show4Strikingly DandiML 7/2

Strikingly Dandi checks in third on the TrackWiz board at 55.83 and draws Ramon A. Vazquez, who gets good mounts at this meet. Trainer Austin Gustafson puts this one out at 7/2, a price that suggests some market confidence. With no speed figures available for anyone in this field, the clustering of ratings in the 55-57 range makes the top three very live for trifecta purposes, and Strikingly Dandi is a natural fit in the show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

8:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint with a clear class standout on paper, but the pace scenario could get spicy — multiple horses with solid speed figures and a handful of grinders who know how to be dangerous at this level.

win5Power NapML 3/1

Power Nap posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that's the best in this field by a comfortable margin, and trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral sends this one out at just 3/1 — a price that implies real confidence. Rene Diaz takes the mount, and with a 6% career win rate across a sample that suggests experience, this horse knows how to compete. The 52 average speed figure is right in the mix, but the overall model score separates Power Nap from the pack in what our analysis sees as a winnable spot.

place7Dig Baby DigML 5/2

Dig Baby Dig is the second-ranked horse in this field at 79.87 and carries a 10% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53 — a tick better than Power Nap's raw speed number. Mario Fuentes, who's active throughout this card, gets the mount at 5/2, making this an interestingly priced runner. If Power Nap gets caught up in a pace duel, Dig Baby Dig has the profile of a horse that can close and grab a piece.

show2Say as I SayML 5/1

Say as I Say is worth a look at 5/1 with a 74.33 TrackWiz rating that's third-best in the field and a 52 average speed figure. Trainer Allen C. Dupuy has two horses in this race, which suggests a stable comfortable operating at this class level. Weston Hamilton, who's been one of the busiest and most productive jockeys on this card, climbs aboard — and at 5/1 in a claiming field, this represents solid show-ticket value and a legitimate exotic play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

9:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf allowance with a wide-open ratings spread and a surprise longshot angle lurking in the middle of the field — the morning-line favorite doesn't match the top TrackWiz rating, which is where the value lives today.

win9Absolutely CertainML 6/1

Absolutely Certain tops the TrackWiz model at 82.71 — well clear of the 2/1 morning-line favorite Helicity — and gets W. Bret Calhoun, one of the more respected trainers at this level, pulling the strings. Jose L. Alvarez picks up the mount and brings energy to a horse that's won 21% of career starts, a respectable strike rate for a turf router. At 6/1, this is our best value play on the card — a horse the model loves at a price the market hasn't fully recognized.

place3MarcML 12/1

Marc is a genuine longshot price surprise here at 12/1 given a 72.59 TrackWiz rating that makes him the third-ranked horse in the field. The Steven Asmussen barn — which has multiple runners on today's card — sends Stewart Elliott out on a horse with a 25% career win rate, the highest in this field. On a one-mile turf route, a closer with that win percentage and a top trainer's confidence is exactly the type to sneak into the exacta at a big price.

show7Hedge the RiskML 9/2

Hedge the Risk rates fourth overall in this field at 69.80 and carries a 20% career win rate with a 54 average speed figure on turf. Trainer J.R. Caldwell puts this one out at 9/2, suggesting honest intentions, and Rene Diaz gets the mount. In a turf mile where pace can string out the field and closers get their chance, Hedge the Risk's form profile fits the race shape — worth including in trifecta tickets and as a show hedge behind the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

9:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Augusta Melody looks like a boat race on paper with the field's top rating and best average speed, but the 9/5 morning line means bettors need to decide if this is chalk worth backing or a spot to hunt value underneath.

win6Augusta MelodyML 9/5

Augusta Melody is the class of this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — nearly 23 points clear of the next-best horse — and a field-best 57 average speed figure that backs up the model with raw numbers. Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who also saddles Our Pact in this race, puts Ramon A. Vazquez up on what appears to be the stable's primary weapon, and a 22% career win rate gives this horse legitimate credentials. At 9/5, there's not much value, but when the ratings gap is this wide, sometimes you just take the best horse.

place1Our PactML 5/1

Our Pact is the other Diodoro runner in this field and carries a 65.89 TrackWiz rating alongside a 23% career win rate — the highest in the race. Geovanni Franco takes the mount, and the 5/1 morning line offers genuine place value if you're looking to structure an exacta around the favorite. A 55 average speed figure is competitive at this level, and the stable clearly has two legitimate runners in here.

show5Super BradyML 6/1

Super Brady draws the eye at 6/1 with a 61.61 TrackWiz rating and a 56 average speed figure that ties for the second-best raw speed in the field alongside Prisoner. Trainer J.R. Caldwell, who also has Hedge the Risk running in Race 5, puts Rene Diaz up on a horse with a 19% career win rate. In a claiming field where the favorite could be vulnerable, Super Brady's speed and modest odds make this a solid show ticket and a trifecta inclusion worth considering.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

10:17 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A 7-furlong maiden dirt race that shakes out as a two-horse battle at the top of the ratings — with a clear class angle and two horses separated by just four points setting up what should be a compelling stretch duel.

win1Sands of TimeML 2/1

Sands of Time sits atop this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — numbers that hold up strongly for a first-level maiden at seven furlongs. Trainer Justin R. Evans puts David Cabrera on board at a 2/1 morning line, which confirms the market already sees this one as the horse to beat. With the highest rating in the field and a jockey who gets consistent work at this meet, Sands of Time is a deserving chalk — the question is whether the price makes sense for your ticket structure.

place3Curlin's UnionML 3/1

Curlin's Union runs second on the TrackWiz board at 84.37 and posts a 53 average speed figure under trainer Danny Pish, who has two horses in this field. Rene Diaz, one of the most active jockeys on today's card, gets the call at 3/1 — making this a legitimate win threat and a lock for place consideration. If the pace scenario favors a closer, Curlin's Union has the profile to run Sands of Time down in the final furlong.

show2ExtremistML 7/2

Extremist checks in at 55.83 on the TrackWiz model under the Steven Asmussen/Erik Asmussen father-son combination, which is a trainer angle worth respecting in maiden company. The 53 average speed figure is solid, and at 7/2 the morning line puts some market confidence behind this entry. In a maiden race where the top two can both fire, Extremist's barn pedigree makes this a logical trifecta piece even if it can't quite match the raw ratings of the top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

10:44 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of ten in a one-mile turf starter optional claimer — with a wide ratings spread from 10 to 85, there's a clear top pick, but the exotic payouts could be generous if the morning-line favorite Russells Hustle gets involved in the exacta.

win2One Time MarkML 4/1

One Time Mark posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — easily the top score in this ten-horse field — and draws Floyd Wethey Jr. for trainer Dick Cappellucci at 4/1 on the morning line. A 15% career win rate shows this horse is no stranger to winning, and a 54 average speed figure on the turf is competitive in this starter optional claiming company. The combination of the field's best model score and a fair price makes One Time Mark our top pick — this is the kind of spot where the TrackWiz number and the morning line are actually aligned.

place9Russells HustleML 2/1

Russells Hustle is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 68.42 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 55 — so there's legit form here, even if our model prefers One Time Mark overall. Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who has a strong showing throughout today's card, puts Geovanni Franco aboard. A 14% career win rate in what appears to be a deeper career sample keeps this honest, and at 2/1 as a place ticket with Diodoro's touch, this fits comfortably in an exacta.

show7Quarterly ReportML 8/1

Quarterly Report is an interesting angle at 8/1 — a 66.73 TrackWiz rating is respectable in this field, but what really jumps out is a 41% career win rate, the highest of any horse in Race 8 by a significant margin. David Cabrera gets the mount for trainer Alex T. Hartman, and a 53 average speed figure fits the pace profile of a one-mile turf race. At 8/1, this is legitimate show value and a trifecta target — a horse with a winning habit that deserves more respect than the morning line suggests.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Today at Lone Star, the early card gives us two sharp Stakes sprints headlined by the high-rated RB MADE YOU LOOK, plus a maiden sprint where Connie'scalculator looks like the one to beat. The premium races bring even more value — especially Absolutely Certain at 6/1 on the turf in Race 5. It's a full, competitive Friday card worth playing deep. Subscribers can access the complete analysis, pace maps, and exotic strategies at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — and stay hydrated. If it's hot in the grandstand, imagine how the horses feel.

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