Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 11, 2026

Thursday, June 11, 20268 racesLone Star

It's a hot one at Lone Star Park today — 92 degrees under partly cloudy skies as eight races go to post on Thursday, June 11. The heat is nothing new for North Texas in June, but it's worth noting that the main track figures to be firm and fast, which tends to favor horses with early speed. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

Today's card is a nice mix of conditions: four dirt races, three turf routes, and a spread of class levels from maiden special weights all the way up to allowance optional claiming. Whether you're grinding the card top-to-bottom or cherry-picking a couple of spots, there's plenty to work with.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, with our top picks and ratings fully visible. The remaining five races — including what shapes up as the most competitive spots on the card — are part of the full premium breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with a field full of first-timers and lightly-raced youngsters — TrackWiz ratings spread from 10 to 82, so there's a clear standout on paper, but debut races on dirt always carry a wildcard element.

win7WMA MINUTE MAIDML 5/1

WMA MINUTE MAID (7) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.73 — a significant margin over the second-ranked horse — and is paired with trainer Blake Gregory Potter, who also enters WMA RED WINGS in the same race, signaling stable confidence. Derbe Glass gets the call in the irons, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this represents solid value for a horse that grades out this far ahead of the competition. In a maiden field where gauging ability is always tricky, having the top rating by such a wide gap is as clean a signal as you'll find.

place10UPTOWN TRUMPTHESSML 5/2

UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS (10) carries the second-highest rating at 57.5 and is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 under Mario Fuentes, suggesting the market has noticed this one. With no average speed figure to reference — indicating a likely debut — the odds reflect a horse that has worked favorably behind the scenes for trainer Carlos A. Padilla.

show9WMA MAGICALML 7/2

WMA MAGICAL (9) checks in with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating and is slotted at 7/2 by the morning-line makers, making it one of the more respected horses in this field. Trainer Wayne F. George puts Amin Castillo up, and the fact that this horse rates in the top three overall makes it a solid exotic inclusion in trifecta and exacta combinations.

Race 2

12:02 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The claiming ranks produce a genuinely competitive six-horse sprint here, but TrackWiz analysis identifies a clear top tier — three horses rated in the 77-87 range — setting up a tight finish among the upper class of this field.

win5SpunoutofmymindML 7/2

Spunoutofmymind (5) leads all horses in this race with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with an 11% career win rate — the highest in the field — along with an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Dick Cappellucci runs a two-horse entry with Bolt Supremacy, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. takes the mount here, a strong jockey choice for a horse the barn clearly fancies. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's real value given the rating edge.

place4AmentumML 9/5

Amentum (4) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and backs that billing with a 82.71 rating and a 7% career win rate, the best among all horses with a recorded win percentage in this field. Trainer Danny Pish sends out Erik Asmussen, a combo that carries weight at this level — expect Amentum to press pace and be dangerous late.

show2Bolt SupremacyML 2/1

Bolt Supremacy (2) rates third in the field at 77.74 with an average speed figure of 56 — actually the top speed number in the race — and is managed by the same Dick Cappellucci barn that also trains the top pick. The 2/1 morning line reflects how seriously the market takes this horse, and it profiles as a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

Race 3

12:29 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile features three horses bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up what should be a genuine stretch duel — Diodoro's Channel Check squares off against a pair of mares with elite career win percentages.

win4Channel CheckML 5/2

Channel Check (4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest figure in this allowance field — and while her career win rate of 9% might seem modest, she's trained by Robertino Diodoro, one of the sharpest conditioners at Lone Star. Geovanni Franco takes the mount at a 5/2 morning line, and with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top of the field, she has the tools to control the pace scenario on the turf mile.

place1Floras OraML 3/1

Floras Ora (1) is one of the most accomplished horses in the field with a remarkable 37% career win rate — best among all entrants — and a TrackWiz rating of 85.97 that puts her right on the heels of the top pick. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Francisco Bravo, and this mare's win percentage suggests she knows how to finish, making her a prime place candidate.

show2Walk Away KayeML 2/1

Walk Away Kaye (2) owns a 33% career win rate — second only to Floras Ora — and rates at 80.55 with a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Danny Pish sends out Erik Asmussen, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the market clearly respects this mare as a legit contender. She's a strong show play and fits naturally into the trifecta.

Our three free races today cover both surfaces and a range of class levels, giving you a solid foundation before the card heats up. On the turf, Channel Check stands out as our highest-rated free-race pick at 87.81 — an allowance mile on the grass where pace scenario and turf pedigree carry serious weight. On the dirt, Spunoutofmymind (86.35 rating) tops the claiming opener at 6 furlongs, a race that should see honest early fractions on what figures to be a fast, hard surface. And in Race 1, WMA Minute Maid headlines a maiden special weight field — always a tricky puzzle, but our model likes this one at 5/1 on the morning line as a potential value play.

The throughline in today's free races: speed and surface suitability. With the main track baked firm under that Texas sun, horses that can get to the front early — or sit just off a contested pace — have the edge. Channel Check on the turf is our most confident free-race opinion today.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:56 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Five furlongs for maiden special weight youngsters with no published speed figures — this is a first-out-or-close-to-it sprint where trainer and jockey horsepower matter as much as anything on paper.

win1Braken LukeML 5/2

Braken Luke (1) rates at 57.5 — tops in the field — and carries the added weight of the powerful Steve Asmussen barn, with Erik Asmussen taking the mount. Asmussen is one of the most respected trainers in American racing, and when that outfit sends out a maiden at 5/2 on the morning line, it's worth taking seriously. The inside post at five furlongs can be an asset in a sprint, and the trainer-jockey stable combo is a potent angle here.

place6AirshipML 3/1

Airship (6) rates second in the field at 56.67 and is trained by Tristan Ashford with Lane J. Luzzi up. The 3/1 morning line indicates legitimate market respect, and in a race with no speed figures to separate horses, the rating edge and odds alignment make Airship a natural place contender.

show3Big Sky PosseML 7/2

Big Sky Posse (3) checks in with a 55.83 rating — third overall — trained by Robertino Diodoro, who also saddles Channel Check on the turf card today, showing the barn is live across the program. Ramon A. Vazquez gets the mount at 7/2, and Diodoro's reputation for having horses ready on debut rounds out a solid trifecta play.

Race 5

1:23 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 5 fur · Dirt

The ratings handicap at five furlongs features a fascinating pace setup — a horse with the top TrackWiz rating goes postward at near-overlay odds, while two Diodoro runners with strong win percentages threaten to complicate things early.

win8Ore MineML 9/2

Ore Mine (8) leads all horses in the field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — a clear margin over the 70.13 second-ranked Grazen Sun — and clocks a 56 average speed figure that matches the top tier in this sprint. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a potential overlay given the rating dominance. Ramon A. Vazquez gets the assignment for trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III, and in a ratings handicap where the numbers are supposed to tell the story, Ore Mine is yelling the loudest.

place1Grazen SunML 5/1

Grazen Sun (1) rates second at 70.13 and carries a 21% career win rate, giving Geovanni Franco a horse with both ability and a proven finishing record. Trainer Robertino Diodoro also enters Magic Castle in this race, so the barn has options — but Grazen Sun's superior rating of the two makes this one the preferred play.

show4Classic MomentML 7/2

Classic Moment (4) brings a stellar 34% career win rate to the table, the second-highest in the field, and rates at 61.17 with a 56 average speed figure. Trainer Justin R. Evans puts Floyd Wethey Jr. up at 7/2, and a horse that wins a third of its starts doesn't need much to go right to hit the board — a natural show play in a competitive sprint.

Race 6

1:50 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Robertino Diodoro saddles two horses in this starter optional claiming mile on the turf, but the TrackWiz model has its eyes on a different runner — a lightly-underrated horse posting the field's top rating at juicy odds.

win9ReadyML 4/1

Ready (9) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 85.62, edging out the 2/1 favorite by over three points, yet sits at 4/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay if the ratings hold. Trainer Kari Craddock puts Deshawn L. Parker in the saddle, and with an 18% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure, this horse has the credentials to close on the turf mile.

place5Bingo BabyML 2/1

Bingo Baby (5) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — an 82.11 rating, a 25% career win rate (best in the field), and a 54 average speed figure that ties for tops in the race. Trainer Robertino Diodoro and Ramon A. Vazquez are a strong combination, and this one will be tough to keep off the board.

show6Church PewML 3/1

Church Pew (6) rates at 71.96 and is the second Diodoro runner in this field, handled by Geovanni Franco at 3/1. With a 54 average speed figure and a 16% career win rate, Church Pew has the pace and pedigree to threaten late — and having two horses in the same race for Diodoro only adds intrigue to the show price.

Race 7

2:17 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming mile on dirt shapes up as a wide-open affair despite a few logical contenders — the top TrackWiz pick goes postward at 8/1, presenting a genuine overlay angle that serious bettors should pay attention to.

win3Special AgendaML 8/1

Special Agenda (3) posts a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — yet the morning line has this horse at 8/1, making it the most compelling value play in the race. Trainer Kari Craddock sends out Deshawn L. Parker, and while the 14% career win rate is modest, the class level of this allowance optional claimer suits a horse that rates this well. When a horse grades this high and prices this long, that's exactly the spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover.

place5Forty TwentyML 3/1

Forty Twenty (5) rates at 77.3 for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who doubles up in this race with Spectacle. Ramon A. Vazquez handles this one, and a 25% career win rate paired with a 54 average speed figure makes Forty Twenty a legitimate threat to run second or better — Diodoro rarely fires two-horse entries without being serious about both.

show4SpectacleML 7/2

Spectacle (4) is the second Diodoro entry, rating 74.13 with Geovanni Franco up at 7/2. The 14% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are solid, and Franco aboard a Diodoro horse always demands respect. As a show play, Spectacle fills out trifectas nicely, especially with the barn's two-pronged attack in this field.

Race 8

2:44 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 14-horse claiming field at seven and a half furlongs on the turf creates a complex pace scenario — deep fields on grass at an unusual distance often produce surprising results, but TrackWiz sees a legitimate standout near the top of the program.

win5Austin CruiseML 4/1

Austin Cruise (5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.58 and arrives with an 18% career win rate alongside a 54 average speed figure that ties for the best in the field. The Steve Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination is formidable at any level, and the 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse that grades this cleanly. In a sprawling 14-horse field, having the top rating AND a power barn in your corner is a significant advantage.

place10MoneylineML 7/2

Moneyline (10) rates at 80.11 with a 10% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Shawn H. Davis puts David Cabrera up at 7/2, and this horse has the numbers to press a strong pace and hang on for a place check. With a field this large, a horse rating second overall is well-positioned to hit the board even if things get chaotic early.

show2Red RoadsterML 8/1

Red Roadster (2) is a fascinating show play — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating combined with a remarkable 33% career win rate and a field-best 55 average speed figure. Floyd Wethey Jr. handles for trainer Rowdy Morris at 8/1, and for a horse with that kind of career win percentage, that's a price worth noting. Horses that win a third of their starts don't tend to disappear — Red Roadster rounds out trifectas in a big way.

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: Channel Check is the free-race standout, the baked-in dirt speed angle runs through both 6-furlong sprints, and the turf routes in the back half of the card are loaded with exotic opportunity. Our top longshot of the day, Special Agenda at 8/1, is a premium pick we're genuinely excited about. Get the full card breakdown — pace projections, ticket builds, and all eight races — with a TrackWiz Premium subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's have a day.

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