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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — September 18, 2026

September 18, 202610 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a beautiful late-summer Friday at Laurel Park — 82 degrees, partly cloudy, and the kind of afternoon where the turf course is the place to be. With six of today's ten races carded on the grass, the green stuff is doing a lot of the heavy lifting today, and the footing should be right in that sweet spot that rewards horses with tactical speed and a clean trip.

Ten races are on the board, mixing maiden claimers and starters all the way up through allowance company, which gives us a nice spread of betting opportunities regardless of your bankroll or risk tolerance. Our TrackWiz models have been busy — ratings are spread tight in a few spots, which means overlays could be hiding in plain sight if the morning line gets adjusted at the windows.

First post is approaching, so let's get into it. The first three races are on us — free full analysis for every reader. Races 4 through 10 are where the serious action lives, and that's premium territory.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf where our top-rated horse is flying under the morning-line radar at 9/2, setting up a juicy exotic opportunity with multiple live contenders in the mix.

win7HopeforgreatnessML 9/2

Hopeforgreatness earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.9 — a full 7-plus points clear of the next closest horse — and that gap on the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs is hard to ignore. The 9/2 morning line makes this a genuine value play, not just a chalk bet. Jean Aguilar gets the call for trainer Hugo O. Padilla, and while the career win rate of 14% looks modest, the rating suggests this horse has been doing things right when it matters. In a field where speed figures are clustered, an edge at the top of the range often translates directly to the winner's circle.

place6AnaitaML 7/2

Anaita opens at 7/2 on the morning line and backs it up with a 77.02 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 28% — the best strike rate in the field. Trainer Bernard G. Dunham sends her out with Arnaldo Bocachica in the irons, a reliable combination on the Maryland circuit. At this distance on turf, a horse with that kind of career consistency is a dependable place ticket.

show2Susan's MuleML 6/1

Susan's Mule at 6/1 is the value play in the exotics, posting a field-second rating of 75.03 with a 25% career win rate for trainer Carlos A. Mancilla. Angel Cruz has plenty of experience getting horses into the money at Laurel, and the combination of a strong rating with a generous price makes Susan's Mule a smart show bet or trifecta inclusion.

Race 2

4:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming dirt sprint is a first-time-starter-heavy affair, making speed figures scarce and raw ability ratings the primary separator — Overwhelming comes in with a clear edge on both counts.

win5OverwhelmingML 7/5

Overwhelming tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 and carries the lowest morning line in the field at 7/5, suggesting the connections and early money agree with our numbers. Trainer Justin J. Nixon sends her out with Tais Lyapustina, and with an average speed figure of 54 — one of only a few horses in this maiden field to show any published speed data — she brings a measurable edge into an otherwise murky race. In maiden claiming sprints, a horse that has already shown she can run is a major advantage.

place6Minimum BidML 9/2

Minimum Bid opens at 9/2 with a 54.17 rating, and trainer Lacey Gaudet deserves credit for fielding a horse that grades out this competitively in a field full of unknowns. Carlos Eduardo Lopez is a steady hand in the irons. Without a posted speed figure, the rating-based edge here is the angle, and the price offers enough value to justify place coverage.

show3Soul HealerML 6/1

Soul Healer at 6/1 is the third-highest-rated runner in this field at 51.67, and trainer Jonathan Maldonado has shown patience developing this horse to the point where Ismerio Villalobos gets the mount. In maiden claiming company where first-timers dominate the entries, a horse that grades positively on our model at a generous price is worth stacking in the trifecta.

Race 3

5:06 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep maiden claiming turf sprint with a clear standout at the top of the ratings, but two second-tier contenders lurking at reasonable prices could make the exacta and trifecta very playable.

win5Chimney SweepML 5/2

Chimney Sweep is the most dominant figure in this race by a wide margin — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next closest runner checks in at 73.56. Forest Boyce takes the mount for trainer Anthony Aguirre Jr., and the average speed figure of 57 is tied for the top of the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting a windfall price, but you are getting a legitimate standout — and those are worth backing.

place4Notion in MotionML 7/2

Notion in Motion at 7/2 earns a 73.56 rating and matches Chimney Sweep with an average speed figure of 55 — well within striking range on a surface where pace scenarios can shift outcomes. Horacio Karamanos is an experienced turf jockey, and trainer Valora A. Testerman's runner projects as the most likely horse to run Chimney Sweep down if the pace gets contested.

show8Short BurnML 3/1

Short Burn opens at 3/1 and posts a 56.67 rating with an average speed of 54 for trainer Michael J. Trombetta — a conditioner who knows how to get maiden turf horses ready. Jorge Ruiz picks up the mount, and the double-barrel of a capable trainer and a competent jockey at a fair price makes Short Burn a solid show bet and a natural trifecta piece.

The free card opens with a pair of turf sprints sandwiching a dirt maiden claimer, and there's a common thread worth noting: early pace is going to matter. On a turf course playing firm-to-good in late September, horses that can get comfortable near the lead without burning out are positioned well. Hopeforgreatness (Race 1, 9/2 morning line) earned our top rating of 84.9 in the Starter Optional Claiming opener over 5½ furlongs — a solid number for this level. In Race 3, Chimney Sweep posts our highest free-race rating at 87.81 and lands at a fair 5/2 on the morning line for another turf sprint. Keep an eye on how the turf plays early — if the bias reveals itself in Race 1, it tells you something heading into Race 3.

Sandwiched between them is Race 2 on the dirt, where Overwhelming comes in as the heavy 7/5 favorite. Chalk at that price in maiden claiming isn't always our favorite situation — the value is thin — but our model backs the number. If you're playing Race 2, consider using Overwhelming in multis rather than straight win bets to protect your investment.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:37 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Blazing Bridgette looks like a dominant class figure in this one-mile dirt claiming affair, but a pair of live longshots could complicate the exacta and make the race far more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win7Blazing BridgetteML 3/2

Blazing Bridgette is the clear top choice here — an 89.27 TrackWiz rating that is more than 16 points ahead of the next contender and a morning line of 3/2 that reflects what the market already knows. Trainer Jamie Ness is a major player at Laurel, and Jaime Rodriguez gets the call on a horse whose average speed of 54 is the best in the field at this distance. In a claiming mile on dirt, a horse with this kind of rating separation and a top barn behind her is a best bet.

place6The Great MaybeML 5/1

The Great Maybe opens at 5/1 and grades out at 72.92 — the second-best rating in the field by a comfortable margin. Angel Cruz pilots for trainer Carlos A. Mancilla, a combination that is no stranger to the winner's circle at Laurel. While a 6% career win rate isn't flashy, the rating model suggests this horse is running better than that number indicates, and 5/1 for a place ticket is real value.

show8I'mamaterialgirlML 30/1

I'mamaterialgirl is the most interesting show play on the board at a 30/1 morning line — a wild price for a horse posting a 52.75 rating that is actually third-best in this field. Trainer Jose Corrales sends her out with Leandro M. Briceno, and an 11% career win rate suggests she knows how to hit the board. At those odds, she's a must-use in any trifecta you're building around the top two.

Race 5

6:06 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A loaded Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf where two horses at the top of the ratings are separated by less than two points, setting up what could be a genuine stretch duel for the win.

win8KuhnerML 5/2

Kuhner sits at the top of the TrackWiz ratings with an 84.65 and opens at just 5/2 on the morning line — a reasonable price for the class of the field. Carlos Eduardo Lopez gets the mount for trainer W. Robert Bailes, and the average speed figure of 56 is the best posted number in this field. A 20% career win rate in what is clearly a competitive level of racing makes this a confident top pick.

place9Vaya JeffeML 6/1

Vaya Jeffe is just two ticks behind Kuhner at 82.71 and opens at 6/1 — that's a meaningful price discrepancy for horses this close in our model. Jeiron Barbosa rides for trainer Anthony Farrior, and while an 11% career win rate won't turn heads, the rating says this horse belongs in the mix. If Kuhner gets caught in any kind of pace duel, Vaya Jeffe is the most likely beneficiary.

show10Snookie BearML 6/1

Snookie Bear posts the third-best rating in the field at 64.39 and draws a solid connection in Jaime Rodriguez for trainer Jamie Ness. The 6/1 morning line matches the place pick in price, which means you can grab legitimate value at the show position. In a full field of ten on turf, having a show horse connected to one of Laurel's better barns is a smart play.

Race 6

6:34 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive field of maiden turf sprinters — sixteen runners, no winners among them — where Light de Night stands out like a beacon at a surprisingly fair morning-line price.

win13Light de NightML 3/2

Light de Night leads the entire 16-horse field with a 89.27 TrackWiz rating and is the clear top choice despite opening at just 3/2. Jorge Ruiz gets the mount for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., and the average speed of 54 is in the upper tier of a field where many horses have limited or no published figures. In a maiden race this large, having the top-rated horse at a fair price is the cleanest angle on the board.

place9It's FineML 3/1

It's Fine checks in at a 74.88 rating — second-best in this enormous field — and opens at 3/1 for trainer Hugh I. McMahon. Charlie Marquez picks up the mount, and the average speed of 54 matches the top tier of this group. In a race where chaos is almost guaranteed with 16 horses breaking from the gate, a second choice this close in rating to the top pick is a strong place play.

show7MeredithslightningML 5/1

Meredithslightning grades out at 69.43 on our model — third in the field — and trainer Caitlin Keil sends her out at 5/1 with Jose E. Vargas in the irons. The average speed of 53 is competitive, and the morning-line price provides genuine value relative to her position in the ratings. With 16 horses in the field, including her in your exotic tickets is a smart hedge.

Race 7

7:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses rated in the low-to-mid 80s are pulling away from the rest of this six-furlong dirt claiming field, and the gap between them and the morning-line favorite creates a fascinating betting scenario.

win3Beach CowboyML 5/1

Beach Cowboy leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and goes to the gate at 5/1 — a price that looks generous given the separation from most of the field. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III hands the reins to Jeiron Barbosa, and a 20% career win rate on a horse this highly rated suggests the ability has always been there. At six furlongs on dirt, the pace setup should suit a horse with this kind of rating edge.

place7Robert's MoonML 5/2

Robert's Moon is almost impossible to separate from Beach Cowboy on our model — an 82.24 rating to Beach Cowboy's 84.17 — but opens at a much shorter 5/2 on the morning line. Leandro M. Briceno rides for trainer John E. Salzman Jr., and a 10% career win rate on a horse with legitimate speed figures means he's hit the board plenty. The price differential is the reason Beach Cowboy gets the win nod, but Robert's Moon is a lock for place coverage.

show1BacknthewoodsML 9/2

Backnthewoods posts a solid 64.32 rating — well clear of the rest of the field behind the top two — and opens at 9/2 with Jorge F. Hernandez in the irons for trainer Jose Corrales. A 13% career win rate and an average speed of 55 confirm this is a legitimate contender for the minor awards. If the pace tightens up between the top two, Backnthewoods is well-positioned to collect the show end.

Race 8

7:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The morning-line favorite in this allowance turf sprint looks vulnerable on our ratings, with three horses clustered closely at the top of the model and a legitimate upset brewing at a price.

win6BrightshininglightML 6/1

Brightshininglight earns a 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field among our picks — and opens at a very playable 6/1 for trainer Eveline Kjelstrup. Tais Lyapustina gets the mount, and an average speed figure of 57 is tied for best in the field. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and the 6/1 price on the highest-rated contender makes this one of the better win values on today's card.

place7Enduring GoldML 5/1

Enduring Gold is just one point behind Brightshininglight on our model at 81.56 and opens at 5/1 for the Michael J. Trombetta barn — one of the sharper operations at Laurel. Jorge Ruiz pilots, and a 20% career win rate with an average speed of 56 puts this horse firmly in the exacta conversation. Trombetta rarely wastes a good horse in a spot below its ability level.

show5Matthew's TicketML 9/2

Matthew's Ticket opens at 9/2 with an 80.06 rating — just a tick behind the top two — and gets Forest Boyce aboard for trainer Phillip Capuano. The average speed of 57 ties for best in the field, and a 12% career win rate in allowance races suggests consistent effort. All three of our top picks are within 2.65 rating points of each other, so Matthew's Ticket is as live as any show horse you'll find on the card today.

Race 9

8:08 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A compact six-horse allowance on dirt where two legitimate standouts sit at the top of the ratings and a generous long shot could give the trifecta real value if the top two run to their numbers.

win1IntogageML 5/2

Intogage tops this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 66% — one of the most impressive strike rates you'll see anywhere on today's card. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio sends him out at 5/2 with Inoel Beato aboard, and an average speed of 55 is right in line with the best horses in this allowance field. When a horse wins at that clip and our model rates him first, the 5/2 price is entirely acceptable.

place3SuperfractorML 6/5

Superfractor opens as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 with an 83.8 rating for trainer Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. — a sharp conditioner at this level. Melissa Iorio gets the mount, and an average speed of 56 combined with a 33% career win rate confirms this is a high-quality horse. The reason Intogage gets the top nod is the massive edge in career win percentage; Superfractor is the place play given her shorter price on the win side.

show2Fayes HeartML 10/1

Fayes Heart at 10/1 is the value play in this race — a 70.97 rating with a 40% career win rate for trainer John J. Robb is a legitimate pedigree for a horse going off at double-digit odds. Xavier Perez rides, and an average speed of 55 matches the better horses in this field. In a six-horse field with two clear top choices, finding a 40% career winner at 10/1 in the show spot is exactly the kind of edge that makes exotic tickets pay.

Race 10

8:39 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight turf sprint to close the card, where the morning-line favorite grades out below the top of our model and a pair of value plays could restructure the exotics entirely.

win9LouvarML 8/1

Louvar tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 79.79 and goes to the gate at 8/1 — a price that screams value relative to both our model and the morning-line favorite. Jorge Ruiz rides for trainer Barry Foley, and an average speed of 55 is solidly in the competitive range for this maiden special weight group. In turf maiden races where pedigree and raw ability often tell the story, a horse this highly rated at this price deserves to be your win ticket.

place3BrikeliML 5/1

Brikeli opens at 5/1 with a 68.31 rating — second in the field — and brings the second-best average speed figure in the race at 57 for trainer Kyle M. Horlacher. Martina Rojas gets the call, and for a maiden sprinting on the turf, that 57 speed average is a notable qualifier. If the pace gets hot early, Brikeli's raw ability numbers project her right into the exacta.

show4LuxML 10/1

Lux grades out at 64.6 on our model — third best in the field — and opens at 10/1 for trainer Justin Rivera. Carol Cedeno rides, and the average speed of 55 confirms this is a horse with legitimate credentials, not just a rating on paper. At 10/1 for a horse our model puts firmly in the top three, Lux is a must-use in the trifecta to close out the card.

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Today at Laurel Park, the turf is the story — six grass races, firm footing, and some genuine value scattered across the card. Start with Hopeforgreatness, Overwhelming, and Chimney Sweep in the free races, and if you want the full picture on Beach Cowboy, Brightshininglight, and the rest of the premium card, subscribe to TrackWiz and get every race broken down before the gates open. Good luck out there — let's cash some tickets.

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