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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 202610 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Laurel Park — clear skies, 76°F, and zero excuses for not cashing a ticket. Ten races spread across dirt and turf give us plenty to work with, and the conditions are about as good as it gets in mid-September in Maryland.

The turf course figures to play a starring role today with four races scheduled on the grass. That kind of surface variety means pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race, and picking the right spots matters more than ever. The card peaks in Race 9 with a six-furlong dirt stakes — the kind of race that can anchor your multi-race sequences if you land on the right horse early.

TrackWiz has analysis on all 10 races. The first three are on us — free, fully unlocked. Races 4 through 10 are reserved for subscribers, including the stakes race and every turf route on the back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse turf sprint with a clear top-rated favorite, but massive fields on the grass can produce chaos — pace will be critical in the 5½-furlong dash.

win5ContraML 8/5

Contra (#5) is the class of this field by a wide margin, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — more than 30 points clear of the next-best contender. Trainer Sarah Nagle sends her out at 8/5 on the morning line, which reflects the market's respect for this horse's profile. Her average speed figure of 57 ties for tops in the field, and Horacio Karamanos has been a reliable pilot in tight fields like this. In a race where chaos is possible with 16 runners, Contra's overall quality makes her the safest single.

place13Lady LenaML 4/1

Lady Lena (#13) is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 63.16, backed at a generous 4/1 on the morning line by trainer Keri Brion. She posts an average speed of 55, well within striking range of the leaders at 5½ furlongs on turf. Jorge Ruiz gets the call, and in a race this large, her ability to find a clean trip from the outside draw will be the key — but the price makes her worth framing in the exacta.

show9Let Her Pass ByML 10/1

Let Her Pass By (#9) carries a solid 60.36 rating and clocks in at 10/1 on the morning line — respectable value in a field where the top three rated horses are tightly bunched. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman keeps this runner competitive at this level, and an average speed of 56 puts her right in the mix on figures. At double-digit odds, she's the ideal trifecta anchor to round out an exotic ticket.

Race 2

4:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A short but intriguing seven-horse dirt route where two horses dominate the ratings and the rest of the field trails well behind — expect a top-heavy finish.

win7EdelweissML 6/5

Edelweiss (#7) enters as the TrackWiz top-rated horse at 89.71 and goes off at 6/5 morning line, signaling the market agrees. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III puts Jeiron Barbosa in the irons, a sharp booking for a horse that needs to get the job done at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. A career win percentage of 9% might seem modest, but her rating towers over this field and her average speed of 53 is right in line with what this claiming field will produce. She's the play, even at a short price.

place1MaupansantML 5/2

Maupansant (#1) rates a strong second in this field at 82.81 — nearly 26 points behind Edelweiss, but a wide gap above the rest. Trainer Caitlin Keil sends her out with Kevin Gomez at 5/2, suggesting real confidence. A career win rate of 11% with an average speed of 54 (best in the field) makes her the logical exacta partner, and she could easily outrun the favorite if Edelweiss has any trouble in the early going.

show2Fairfield BayML 5/1

Fairfield Bay (#2) checks in at 57.17 on the TrackWiz scale and offers 5/1 morning line value that's worth a look in trifectas. Trainer Justin J. Nixon has 14% career win runners at this level, and Wesley Ho pilots a horse who should get a clean trip from post 2. She's not likely to beat the top two, but in a thin field she's the clear third option.

Race 3

5:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Three horses are bunched near the top of the ratings on this 1 1/16-mile turf route, setting up a genuine three-way battle where the morning line may actually undervalue the true favorite.

win3Cool Hard BreezeML 3/1

Cool Hard Breeze (#3) earns the top TrackWiz rating of 84.82 despite going off at 3/1 — slightly behind morning line co-favorite Hop to It. Trainer Susan S. Cooney has her in good form, and Chloe Hannum gets a live mount. A career win rate of 16% is among the best in the field, and her average speed of 54 matches the top tier. She has the class and the figures to handle this group at this distance.

place6RylnnslookingluckyML 5/1

Rylnnslookinglucky (#6) is the sneaky horse in this race — she rates an outstanding 84.17, just a hair below Cool Hard Breeze, yet goes off at 5/1 on the morning line. That's potential value. Trainer Kenneth M. Cox and jockey Caitlin Keil — who also trains Rylnnslookinglucky, a noteworthy crossover — give this horse a confident setup. Despite a career win rate of just 6%, the rating suggests she's been competitive at higher levels.

show1Dream OvertureML 5/2

Dream Overture (#1) draws the rail and owns a respectable 76.09 TrackWiz rating with a 16% career win percentage — one of the better winning records in the field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes and Alexi Sandoval know how to navigate this distance, and an average speed of 54 keeps her right in the pace picture. At 5/2, she's not a massive overlay, but the inside post on turf is a real asset at Laurel.

The free portion of today's card opens with back-to-back turf offerings before switching to dirt, which is a nice cross-section of what Laurel has to offer. Contra (Race 1, 8/5 ML) tops our ratings at 89.12 in the five-and-a-half furlong turf sprint — a strong number for a claiming opener. Edelweiss (Race 2, 6/5 ML) earns an 89.71 TrackWiz rating, the highest mark of the free trio, in a one-and-one-sixteenth mile dirt route. And Cool Hard Breeze (Race 3, 3/1 ML) gives us a little overlay potential on the turf at a price, rated 84.82 in what shapes up as a more contested field.

The early turf bias is worth monitoring — on a clear day with firm-trending footing, expect pace to be honest and closers to get their fair share. If the rail is playing live, horses with inside post draws in the turf routes deserve an extra look all card long.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:37 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Starter Optional Claiming tag makes this one tricky to read, but the TrackWiz ratings clearly separate two horses from the pack — and the morning line has them priced in opposite directions.

win2Zio LinoML 7/2

Zio Lino (#2) tops the TrackWiz leaderboard at 86.35 and goes off at 7/2 — better value than the 7/5 chalk. Trainer Damon R. Dilodovico and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez make for a sharp combination in this six-furlong sprint, and a career win rate of 10% with an average speed of 54 shows he's capable. The fact that he outrates the morning line favorite (Biker Baley) by more than 22 points is worth noting — TrackWiz analysis says bet the board correctly here.

place1Railroad InnML 8/1

Railroad Inn (#1) is a legitimate value play at 8/1 on the morning line — his TrackWiz rating of 75.34 is second-best in the field, yet the public has him well beneath Biker Baley in pricing. Trainer Kenneth M. Cox has a knack for placing horses, and Jeiron Barbosa is aggressive from the gate. With only a 5% career win rate, he won't always close the deal, but his figures say he belongs right at the top of this race.

show6Biker BaleyML 7/5

Biker Baley (#6) is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and carries a 20% career win percentage — legitimately the best winning record in the field. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon and Jevian Toledo are a respected combo at Laurel, and her average speed of 56 leads all runners. She's our show pick rather than the top choice because TrackWiz analysis suggests she's slightly overbet at this price relative to Zio Lino's edge on ratings.

Race 5

6:08 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight on dirt with an 11-horse field and no prior winners — this is all about workouts, pedigree reads, and speed projections, where small rating edges can loom large.

win7Weekend StormML 3/1

Weekend Storm (#7) earns the top TrackWiz rating at 56.67 and goes off at 3/1, suggesting both the analytics and the market like this horse. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta — who doubles up in this race — is one of the most respected conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic, and Daniel Centeno is a capable pilot. An average speed figure of 54 is solid for a first-time maiden field, and the 3/1 price is fair value for the top-rated horse in a wide-open race.

place8LatteML 7/2

Latte (#8) rates a very close second at 55.83 and goes off at 7/2, making her an excellent exacta partner. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and jockey Sheldon Russell make for a family combination that tends to run horses ready on debut. While she doesn't have an average speed figure on record, the TrackWiz model still rates her near the top of this field — suggesting strong morning works or pedigree indicators in the underlying data.

show4Legend's GirlML 15/1

Legend's Girl (#4) is the longshot value play at 15/1 despite rating a 55.22 — essentially tied with our top two picks. Trainer Jose Corrales sends her out with Raul E. Mena, and she posts an average speed of 55, which matches the pace setters here. In a race this competitive with ratings so closely bunched, getting 15/1 on a horse who figures at the top of the field is exactly the kind of trifecta piece you want.

Race 6

6:41 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A massive 16-horse turf route that reads like a full field nightmare — but King Size at near even-money has a dominant rating and a career win percentage that makes the short price defensible.

win7King SizeML 4/5

King Size (#7) goes off at 4/5 morning line and it's easy to see why — a TrackWiz rating of 78.19 leads this unwieldy field, and his career win percentage of 50% is the kind of number you simply don't see in a claiming race. Trainer Michael Stidham puts Jeiron Barbosa in the saddle, a quality booking for a horse expected to control or press the pace at 1 1/16 miles on the lawn. At 4/5, there's no value to chase, but in exotics you want this horse in every combination.

place6Sky's Not FallingML 8/1

Sky's Not Falling (#6) rates a strong second in this field at 70.79 and goes off at 8/1 — that's a meaningful gap between the morning line price and her actual ranking relative to the field. Trainer Emanuel J. Geralis and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez are paired on a horse with a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 55. She's the value play in the exacta underneath King Size, and worth a small win bet herself.

show9McCulloughML 7/2

McCullough (#9) is solid at 64.98 on the TrackWiz scale, backed at 7/2 by trainer Jamie Ness, who has a 25% career win rate on this runner. Jaime Rodriguez rides, and with an average speed of 55 on turf, the trip over 1 1/16 miles plays into his profile. He's the most logical third wheel in the trifecta given his figures and manageable odds.

Race 7

7:14 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt allowance where the top-rated horse and the morning line favorite are different animals — creating a scenario where TrackWiz analysis diverges from public money.

win4Gena BML 5/2

Gena B (#4) leads all runners with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 5/2 — not the favorite, but the best number in the field. Trainer Horacio De Paz keeps her competitive at this allowance level, and Angel Cruz knows how to rate a horse through a one-mile trip. Her average speed of 55 and a career win rate of 14% back up the model's confidence, and at 5/2 she's a genuine best bet rather than a chalk play.

place5Run WildML 9/5

Run Wild (#5) is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and owns an eye-catching 33% career win percentage — the best in the race. Trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Jorge Ruiz make for a dangerous team in distance races, and her average speed of 54 puts her firmly in the mix. Our analysis slots her as the place pick because Gena B's rating advantage is real, but Run Wild's win rate suggests she's no pushover and will be firing late.

show6Scarlett's HaloML 3/1

Scarlett's Halo (#6) checks in at 68.48 on the TrackWiz scale with a 3/1 morning line and the prestigious Chad C. Brown barn behind her — even at a satellite operation, that name carries weight. Jose Antonio Gomez rides, and an average speed of 54 keeps her in the pace picture through a one-mile run. She's the most reliable third horse in the trifecta given her trainer pedigree and rating.

Race 8

7:42 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Maiden Special Weight fillies on the turf at 5½ furlongs — speed figures are sparse in this first-timer heavy field, making the TrackWiz ratings and trainer angles the primary handicapping tools.

win8Mountain MambaML 7/2

Mountain Mamba (#8) tops this maiden field at a commanding 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 7/2 despite trainer Jose Corrales having her primed for the effort. Jean Gregor Briceno rides a horse whose average speed of 56 is among the best in the race — strong for a maiden on the lawn at this sprint distance. In a field where many runners lack published speed figures, Mountain Mamba's numbers stand out sharply and justify single status.

place10ScabiosaML 4/1

Scabiosa (#10) rates a solid second in this field at 77.72 with a 4/1 morning line — excellent value for a horse whose TrackWiz score suggests she's right in the hunt. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla sends her out with Jomar Torres, and her average speed of 55 on turf is right at the top of the recorded figures in this field. She's an ideal exacta partner and worth a place wager in her own right.

show7VoladoraML 3/1

Voladora (#7) owns the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 — best in the field — while sitting at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Richard P. Sillaman keeps her competitive, and Xavier Perez provides a capable hand on the front end of a sprint. Her TrackWiz rating of 56.67 is third-highest in this race, making her a legitimate trifecta piece and worth including in multi-leg exotics.

Race 9

8:15 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The day's stakes race shapes up with a clear top-rated contender in Slewperstitus, but a field loaded with horses carrying 27%-plus career win rates means upsets are a genuine threat in this six-furlong sprint.

win6SlewperstitusML 5/2

Slewperstitus (#6) earns the top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a significant edge in a stakes race where such margins rarely exist. Trainer W. Robert Bailes and Jevian Toledo combine on a horse with a 27% career win rate and an average speed of 56, which is the best recorded figure in this field. Going off at 5/2, this horse offers stakes-level ability at a fair price, and the sprint distance favors a horse whose figures project him as the class of the group.

place8Embrace the MomentML 4/1

Embrace the Moment (#8) is a compelling play at 4/1 with a 42% career win percentage — one of the highest in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 61.13. Trainer Greg Compton sends her out with Vincent Cheminaud, a jockey who knows how to get a horse into a stakes race position. Her average speed of 55 is competitive, and at 4/1 she's the most logical place horse given her proven winning record.

show2Just PhiltoredML 10/1

Just Philtored (#2) offers excellent trifecta value at 10/1 for a horse with a 36% career win rate and a 60.36 TrackWiz rating — both impressive numbers for a stakes runner. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is one of the best conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic region and regularly places horses well in stakes spots. Her average speed of 57 leads the entire field, which means if the pace collapses late, she has the raw figure to run by everyone.

Race 10

8:49 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A 14-horse turf sprint to close the card, and Wonder Girl stands well above the field on TrackWiz ratings at 4/1 — a field this large almost always produces exotic value in the second and third spots.

win14Wonder GirlML 4/1

Wonder Girl (#14) is the clear TrackWiz top pick at 85.62 in this wide field, going off at 4/1 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse this well-rated in a mass field. Trainer Kieron Magee teams up with Horacio Karamanos, and she posts an average speed of 58 — tied for tops in this race — along with a 15% career win percentage that holds up at this level. In a 14-horse turf sprint, the ability to find a clean trip from post 14 will be the key variable, but the talent is clearly there.

place8Boujee BubblezML 7/2

Boujee Bubblez (#8) rates second in the field at 63.85 with a 28% career win percentage — among the best records in this race. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon keeps her sharp, and Charlie Marquez rides a horse with an average speed of 56 that's right in the sweet spot for a 5½-furlong turf sprint. At 7/2 morning line, she's priced like a co-favorite but rates well enough to challenge Wonder Girl for the lead position in exacta coverage.

show9Golden RocketML 9/2

Golden Rocket (#9) owns a TrackWiz rating of 60.84 and goes at 9/2 with trainer Jamie Ness, who has a history of placing horses well in turf sprints. Jaime Rodriguez rides, and an average speed of 55 puts her competitive without necessarily projecting a pace-pressuring role. She's the sound trifecta choice in this large field — rated clearly above the mid-pack and reasonably priced for a horse this capable.

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Bottom line: Laurel serves up a well-rounded 10-race card today under ideal weather conditions. Contra, Edelweiss, and Cool Hard Breeze headline the free picks, while Slewperstitus in the stakes and a handful of value angles on the turf routes make the premium card worth every penny. Dig into the full analysis and let's make this Saturday count.

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