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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 20269 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a fine late-summer Sunday at Laurel Park — partly cloudy, 81°F, and the kind of afternoon where you want a cold drink and a good card in front of you. Good news: you've got both. Nine races are on the docket today, mixing dirt sprints, route battles, and a healthy dose of turf action that should play well under these conditions.

Four of the nine races hit the lawn, so surface management is going to matter. Turf courses tend to reward horses with tactical speed and a clean trip, and with temperatures mild enough to keep the ground from baking, we'd expect consistent footing throughout the afternoon. On the dirt side, Laurel's main track has been running fair, and the pace scenarios in a few of those races look genuinely intriguing.

Our TrackWiz ratings flagged some strong contenders today — including a couple of morning-line favorites we actually agree with and at least one overlay worth circling. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile with a clear top two in the ratings — Feather Wish and Quality Swag separate themselves from the field — but the wide-open nature of maiden company means surprises are always lurking.

win1Feather WishML 5/2

Feather Wish lands atop our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws the rail in a maiden turf mile that should suit a horse with tactical speed. Martin Chuan picks up the mount for Damon Dilodovico, a combination worth tracking on the local circuit. Her average speed figure of 55 ties the best figures in this field, and at 5/2 on the morning line she's a fair price for the top-rated entrant. In maiden company, class separation like this is hard to dismiss.

place7Quality SwagML 7/2

Quality Swag checks in just below Feather Wish with a TrackWiz rating of 85.72, and Vincent Cheminaud is a solid pick-up from the outside post. The 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse rated neck-and-neck with the top pick — in a race this competitive at the top, he's a natural place play. If Feather Wish gets shuffled early from the gate, Quality Swag could easily hit the board first.

show8Watch Me SparkleML 3/1

Watch Me Sparkle (3/1, rating 71.25) is clearly a tier below the top two on our numbers, but trainer A. Ferris Allen III is a name that turns up consistently at Laurel. Jeiron Barbosa has the experience to navigate a turf mile field and find a spot in traffic. At 3/1 she's not screaming value, but her inclusion in a trifecta or exacta box with the top two makes sense as a hedge in this unpredictable maiden field.

Race 2

4:34 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Two horses share the 9/5 co-favorite billing on the morning line, but TrackWiz analysis breaks that tie decisively — Fan Club carries a significant edge in our ratings while New Plex emerges as a genuine value play underneath.

win5Fan ClubML 9/5

Fan Club is the standout here with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the clear top number in this claiming field. Trainer Robert Leaf III sends him out at 9/5, matching the morning line on Celestial Moon, but our numbers say Fan Club is the better horse by a meaningful margin. His career win rate of 17% is solid for the claiming ranks, and Warren Ebow III has the local knowledge to navigate 1 1/16 dirt miles at Laurel. This is a best-bet situation.

place6New PlexML 8/1

New Plex is the value angle in Race 2 — a 20% career win rate is the best in the field, yet Taylor Kingsley's mount opens at 8/1 on the morning line. That's a disconnect our TrackWiz model doesn't miss, with a solid 66.13 rating that puts him clearly third-best by the numbers. At that price, he's a strong underneath play and worth using in exactas below Fan Club.

show8RapidityML 5/1

Rapidity hits the board at 5/1 with a 64.43 rating for trainer Joanne Shankle and jockey Martin Chuan. He's right in the conversation for third money, with a career profile that fits this claiming level. In a race where the top of the field is clear, Rapidity is a reliable show component and helps build a playable exacta or trifecta structure.

Race 3

5:07 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf headlined by a fascinating matchup between the top-rated Promissio and the even-money morning line favorite Reckless — two legitimate contenders with starkly different profiles make this race a puzzle worth attacking.

win3PromissioML 9/2

Promissio sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 for trainer Lacey Gaudet and jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez, opening at 9/2 — that's value against an even-money chalk. Her 8% career win rate reads light, but context matters in optional claimers where horses with turf form cycles don't always show gaudy win percentages. An average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this field, and Gaudet has a knack for placing horses well in these conditions.

place6RecklessML EVN

Reckless is the morning line favorite at even money — and it's not hard to see why. A 37% career win rate is elite for this level, and trainer Jamie Ness is one of the sharper conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic. Our rating of 84.38 puts him right behind Promissio in a virtual dead heat at the top of the numbers, making him the natural place selection. Jaime Rodriguez gets the call and knows how to rate a horse on the turf.

show7Fly NowML 8/1

Fly Now is the longshot sleeper that belongs in your exotics — a 50% career win rate is the best mark in this entire field, and trainer Keri Brion is well-respected on the turf circuit. The 8/1 morning line suggests the market underestimates her current form cycle, and Taylor Kingsley is a capable handler. With a 78.67 rating, she's a legitimate show threat and could easily outrun the odds.

The first three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf at a mile, where Feather Wish (5/2 ML) earned our highest free-race rating at 87.81 — a maiden claimer on the lawn is exactly the kind of spot where pace shape and surface preference can separate contenders, and Feather Wish checks the right boxes. In Race 2, Fan Club (9/5 ML) earns our top overall rating among the free picks at 88.83 — the highest of the first three races — in a dirt route claiming event at 1 1/16 miles where front-end pressure could set things up nicely. Round out the free card with Race 3 on the turf, where Promissio (9/2 ML) represents a potential value angle in a Starter Optional Claiming mile.

A common thread across these three: the turf races both feature morning-line prices that leave some meat on the bone, and the dirt route in Race 2 sets up as a relatively straightforward pace read. If you're playing a small multi-race sequence to start the day, these three races give you a clean foundation to build from.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:35 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on the dirt with a clear class standout at a short price — Gordian Knot looks well-placed in this optional claiming field, though Rampagius and Petingas Twin bring enough firepower to make the pace scenario interesting.

win6Gordian KnotML 2/1

Gordian Knot carries the top TrackWiz rating (88.54) and opens at 2/1 under Mychel J. Sanchez for the always-dangerous Jamie Ness barn. A 28% career win rate is excellent for a sprinter operating at this level, and his average speed figure of 54 fits the class. Ness runners at 2/1 with elite ratings tend to be well-meant, and this looks like a spot where the connections have placed their horse to win.

place5RampagiusML 5/2

Rampagius matches Gordian Knot's 28% career win rate and opens at 5/2, making him the natural foil to the favorite. Trainer Lacey Gaudet saddles him with Carlos Eduardo Lopez — a pairing that has shown up in the money consistently at Laurel. With a 71.88 rating, he's clearly second-best in our model and a logical place play if Gordian Knot gets the lead and controls the pace.

show7Petingas TwinML 3/1

Petingas Twin draws the 7 post at 3/1 for trainer Anthony Farrior and Jeiron Barbosa, carrying a 69.74 rating and a 26% career win rate. He profiles as a closer type who can benefit if the speed duel up front softens the leaders late. In a six-furlong sprint, that late kick can be decisive, and he's worth using in the third spot of trifectas.

Race 5

6:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong maiden claiming dirt sprint is razor-thin at the top — Scrutinator and Love Yourself are separated by just 0.56 rating points — setting up a battle between the morning line chalk and a horse that could easily steal favoritism by post time.

win1ScrutinatorML 7/5

Scrutinator holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.1 and opens as the 7/5 favorite for the Russell barn — Sheldon Russell riding for trainer Brittany T. Russell is a potent combo when the couple connects. His average speed figure of 55 is tied for the top marks in this race. In a maiden sprint, having the best number and a live rider/trainer combo is usually enough reason to be on top.

place2Love YourselfML 2/1

Love Yourself is within a fraction of Scrutinator at 88.54 — for practical purposes these two are co-leaders in our model. At 2/1, he offers slightly better value than the chalk, and Jeiron Barbosa is an experienced hand in sprint situations at Laurel. Trainer Niall Saville placing him here suggests confidence. If Scrutinator gets any trouble in a full field, Love Yourself is right there to capitalize.

show6Pippin the WarriorML 6/1

Pippin the Warrior opens at 6/1 with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful step below the top two, but well clear of the rest of the field. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount for trainer Hugh I. McMahon, and a five-horse gap between Pippin and the next contender means third money looks attainable. He's a solid trifecta anchor who keeps the show bet honest.

Race 6

6:37 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A thirteen-horse optional claiming sprint on the turf at 5.5 furlongs — large field, short turf sprint, and a morning line favorite (Nothing Better at 3/2) who doesn't match up with the TrackWiz top number, creating a prime value opportunity.

win8Noah ChanceML 4/1

Noah Chance tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and opens at 4/1 — a clear overlay against the 3/2 morning line favorite. Xavier Perez gets the mount for trainer John J. Robb, and a 23% career win rate is respectable in this optional claiming company. His average speed figure of 58 ties for the best marks in this race, and on a short 5.5-furlong turf sprint, that raw speed translates directly. This is our best value play of the entire card.

place4CactusML 3/1

Cactus checks in at 74.38 on our ratings with an average speed figure of 58 — matching Noah Chance for the top speed number in the field. Trainer W. Robert Bailes sends him out at 3/1 with Carlos Eduardo Lopez aboard, and his 27% career win rate signals a horse who knows how to hit the board. A short turf sprint rewards pace and positioning, and Cactus has the profile to be right there at the wire.

show12Nothing BetterML 3/2

Nothing Better opens as the 3/2 morning line favorite, so she belongs in this field on reputation — but our 64.98 rating puts her third in the TrackWiz model. A 34% career win rate is the best in the race by some distance, and Jevian Toledo is one of the go-to riders at Laurel. She's worth including in trifectas, but at 3/2 the show bet offers minimal return — use her in exotics instead.

Race 7

7:09 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Wide-open five-furlong maiden sprint on the dirt with no standout by the ratings — Dolce Far Niente leads a tier of horses clustered between 51 and 58, making this race a handicapper's puzzle where pace setup and jockey guile could be as important as raw ability.

win2Dolce Far NienteML 2/1

Dolce Far Niente tops the field at 58.33 and draws post 2 at 2/1 morning line under Mychel J. Sanchez for Hall of Fame trainer Michael J. Trombetta. In maiden company, Trombetta's name alone carries weight — his operation at Laurel is always well-organized and his maidens are often ready to run first time out or early in their careers. An average speed figure of 56 leads the horses who have recorded a figure, and at 2/1 he's a fair price for the top-rated runner.

place4Engaged Is BetterML 7/2

Engaged Is Better opens at 7/2 for trainer John E. Salzman Jr. and jockey Leandro Briceno, with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating that slots him comfortably into the second spot on our model. Salzman is a high-volume conditioner who knows how to place maiden sprinters, and Briceno's experience navigating busy fields at five furlongs is an asset. He's a natural place play who rounds out the top of the exacta.

show10Roll On OnyxML 5/1

Roll On Onyx comes in at 5/1 with a 53.33 rating for trainer Kenneth M. Cox and jockey Jeiron Barbosa — a combo that has been in the money multiple times at Laurel this meet. No published average speed figure creates some mystery, but Cox conditions horses who tend to show up ready, and Barbosa knows how to find position in sprint fields. He's a worthwhile third piece in your trifecta.

Race 8

7:42 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

An allowance field at a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt — this is the classiest race on today's card, and Our Notion's significant ratings edge makes this look like a prime spot for the Jamie Ness barn, even though Bill of Rights' 2/1 morning line suggests the public isn't convinced.

win6Our NotionML 8/5

Our Notion tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.22 and opens at 8/5 — for an allowance field on a Sunday card, that's a solid line for a horse who is clearly the best in the race by our numbers. Trainer Jamie Ness rolls out Jaime Rodriguez, and that combination in allowance company at Laurel is something you take seriously. A 15% career win rate is steady for this level, and with an average speed figure of 52, he's right at home going 1 1/16 on the dirt.

place2Tuff LuckML 9/2

Tuff Luck is the most intriguing underneath play in this race — a 84.9 TrackWiz rating for trainer Hugh McMahon at 9/2 represents real value in an allowance field. Joseph Rocco Jr. picks up the mount and is a quality rider at this level. If Our Notion gets shuffled in traffic on an off pace, Tuff Luck is exactly the type who will be running hard to the wire.

show3Bill of RightsML 2/1

Bill of Rights opens as the 2/1 second choice in the morning line — the market respects him more than our model does at 68.74 — but trainer Joanne Shankle has a history of delivering competitive efforts in allowance company. Jose Vargas rides, and a 16% career win rate is consistent enough to warrant show consideration. He's a useful trifecta component even if he trails our top two picks.

Race 9

8:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The finale is a maiden turf mile where the morning line chalk (Seger Songs at 6/5) and our top-rated horse (Gotta Be Da Shoes at 5/1) diverge sharply — that kind of disconnect between public opinion and TrackWiz analysis is exactly the value opportunity that makes the closer worth playing.

win9Gotta Be Da ShoesML 5/1

Gotta Be Da Shoes leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and opens at 5/1 — a significant overlay given the strength of that number in this maiden field. Martin Chuan picks up the mount for trainer Damon Dilodovico, the same barn that saddles Race 1's top pick, signaling a confident day for this operation. An average speed figure of 55 is tied for the best in the race, and on the turf at a mile, that sustained pace capacity matters enormously. The gap between Gotta Be Da Shoes and the 6/5 morning line chalk in our ratings is striking — this is our prime value play of the card.

place1Far Away EyesML 9/2

Far Away Eyes opens at 9/2 with a 65.29 rating — second-best in the field by a comfortable margin — and trainer James Casey sends her out from post 1, which on a turf mile at Laurel is an advantageous draw. Kevin Gomez handles the rail assignment, and the inside post on a turf mile sets up nicely for a stalker who can save ground all the way around. She's a natural place play who completes the exacta with our top pick.

show6Common SenseML 6/1

Common Sense checks in at 63.1 for trainer A. Ferris Allen III and Jeiron Barbosa, opening at 6/1 — a horse who boasts the best average speed figure in the field at 56, which is a meaningful edge on a turf course where sustained pace wins races. The discrepancy between that speed figure and a third-tier rating suggests she may be a closet contender who fits best in third money. Barbosa is comfortable on the Laurel turf, and she rounds out a playable trifecta.

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Bottom line for Sunday at Laurel: Feather Wish, Fan Club, and Promissio are your free best bets to kick off the afternoon, with solid TrackWiz ratings backing each one. The premium card adds six more races — including Our Notion in the day's top allowance spot and a potentially juicy late turf sequence. Full card analysis, pace maps, and exotic ticket recommendations are available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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