Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — May 21, 2026

Thursday, May 21, 20269 racesHorseshoe Indianapolis

It's a pleasant Thursday afternoon at Horseshoe Indianapolis — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 63°F means no weather drama today. Conditions are about as cooperative as it gets, and a clean, fast track should reward horses that can dictate pace or sit just off a honest tempo.

We've got a nine-race all-dirt card on tap, mixing maiden special weights, claiming races, and a pair of allowance tests to close out the middle of the card. There's genuine intrigue from the first race to the last, including a 350-yard sprint in Race 9 that adds a different wrinkle to the afternoon.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they happen to feature some of the most clearcut analytical cases on the card. The remaining six races are where the real betting meat is, and our premium breakdown goes deep on all of them.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight at a mile where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top choice from the pack, but several first-timers could scramble the pace and the result.

win2Pink PictureML 8/5

Pink Picture is the standout of this field by a significant margin — her TrackWiz rating of 89.12 is more than 19 points clear of the second-best horse in the race. Trained by Anthony J. Granitz and piloted by Mitchell Murrill, she draws the favorable #2 post and carries the 8/5 morning line, reflecting the market's confidence. Her avg speed figure of 52 is competitive in this maiden field, and the one-mile trip gives her every opportunity to settle and unleash a sustained run. In a field where nobody has won a career start, having the strongest composite profile is the closest thing to an edge you can find.

place1Scripted LoveML 7/2

Scripted Love checks in with a solid 69.60 rating and matches Pink Picture's avg speed figure of 53 — the best raw number in the field. Trainer Paul McEntee sends her out from the rail with jockey Joseph C. Bealmear, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the market respects her chances too. At a mile, her pace profile could set up nicely if she gets a clean trip from the inside.

show4Maximum SpiritML 5/1

Maximum Spirit at 5/1 is worth a slot in your exotics with a 63.14 rating that ranks third in the field. Trainer Tianna Richardville has her conditioned for this maiden special weight level, and jockey Joseph D. Ramos gives her a competent pilot from the #4 post. In a wide-open maiden sprint, she's a reasonable hedge in the show position.

Race 2

6:41 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster near the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming sprint, giving the race a competitive look, but the favorite has a meaningful edge that's hard to ignore.

win4Officer GambillML 7/5

Officer Gambill tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.42 — the highest mark in the field — and comes in as the 7/5 morning line favorite. Trainer Shawna Martin puts Mitchell Murrill in the irons, a sharp rider who thrives in tight spots. His avg speed figure of 53 ties for the field's best, and at 5½ furlongs on dirt, a horse with clean speed figures and a strong composite rating should get first run. In maiden claiming company, this kind of edge at the top of the ratings typically converts.

place6Maximum JusticeML 5/1

Maximum Justice is one of the more intriguing underneath plays here at 5/1, posting a 82.31 rating that actually beats the third-place finisher in our ratings hierarchy. Trainer Genaro Garcia sends Micah Meeks out from the #6 post, and while her avg speed of 52 is a tick below the top, the raw ratings profile suggests she's competitive enough to earn a placing. If Officer Gambill gets tired late, Maximum Justice is the most likely beneficiary.

show1Count the CashML 7/2

Count the Cash slots in with an 82.07 rating — virtually identical to Maximum Justice — and gets a prime inside post at #1 with Alexander Crispin in the saddle. Trainer Tracey J. Wisner has her ready for this level, and the avg speed of 53 puts her in the same tier as the favorite. She's a logical show piece for trifecta construction and profiles as a pace-presser who could get up for third if the top two battle it out.

Race 3

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A claiming route with a clear top-rated contender, but a pair of horses with legitimate career win percentages make the underneath spots genuinely competitive.

win5House of GoldML 6/5

House of Gold looks like the horse to beat at a mile on dirt, leading all entrants with a 89.71 TrackWiz rating and the field's best avg speed figure of 54. She's posted a career win rate of 12% — modest but meaningful in the context of a claiming field — and trainer Tianna Richardville has her in good hands with jockey Joseph D. Ramos. The 6/5 morning line is short but reflects a legitimate quality gap over the rest of the field.

place4GoingscentsML 4/1

Goingscents is the most compelling underneath play at 4/1 — a 76.82 rating, an avg speed of 53, and most importantly a career win rate of 14% that leads the field. Trainer Brian Cook sends Alberto Burgos out from the #4 post, and at a mile, a horse with a proven ability to win races has to be respected in the place slot. Her profile as a winner gives her a real shot to land in the exacta.

show2Buster BML 15/1

Buster B is a genuine longshot play in the show position at a 15/1 morning line, but our ratings peg him at 64.10 — third-best in the field. He's also got a 12% career win rate and matches the top horses on an avg speed of 53 for trainer Raymond J. Paquette III. At that price, sneaking him into your trifecta ticket could be well worth the extra investment.

The free portion of today's card opens strong. Pink Picture tops our ratings in the mile maiden special weight to kick things off, and the pace scenario in that race sets up well for a closer with her profile. Officer Gambill follows in the 5½-furlong maiden claimer — that 7/5 morning line reflects what the morning clockers have been saying, and our TrackWiz rating of 89.42 backs up the favoritism. Then House of Gold, our highest-rated free pick at 89.71, takes on a mile claiming field in Race 3 as a prohibitive 6/5 choice.

One thing to watch across all three of these opening races: the dirt surface here has been playing fairly honest under similar weather conditions, which tends to favor horses with back class and clean recent works. All three of our top free picks check those boxes. Don't sleep on the exacta underneath each — the prices behind the top choices could be generous early in the day.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A deep 12-horse claiming field at a mile and 70 yards where the favorites separate clearly on ratings but a couple of live longshots make the exotics worth playing wide.

win1Moon LawML 7/2

Moon Law is our top selection and the TrackWiz ratings leader at 80.88 in a sprawling field. She carries the field's best avg speed figure of 55, a career win rate of 16%, and gets arguably the most talented trainer in this field — Brad H. Cox — alongside Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. in the irons. At a route distance of 1 mile 70 yards, she has the class and the turn of foot to handle this group. The 7/2 morning line is fair value for a horse with this profile.

place11British EmpressML 6/1

British Empress draws our attention with a solid 76.34 rating and the #11 post, which makes her an interesting inclusion at 6/1. Trainer Lauren Robson sends Joseph D. Ramos to the gate, and while her career win rate of 4% is modest, her speed and ratings profile suggest she's been knocking on the door. At this distance and this price, she's a legitimate place contender worth including in your exactas.

show10Sea LionML 12/1

Sea Lion at 12/1 brings a 73.96 rating and a 14% career win rate to the table — numbers that deserve more respect than that morning line suggests. Trainer Kelsey Danner puts Declan Cannon up from the #10 post, and an avg speed of 52 is consistent enough to hit the board in this field. She's a value-priced show piece who could easily outrun her odds.

Race 5

8:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A large maiden special weight sprint with first-time starters and limited speed data throughout — this is a wide-open guessing game where pedigree and trainer reputation carry extra weight.

win1Mischievous RichieML 5/2

Mischievous Richie earns our top spot with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 57.50 and a 5/2 morning line that makes him the public choice as well. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a consistent presence in the Midwest, and Jareth Loveberry is one of the sharper jockeys on the Horseshoe circuit. Without avg speed figures available for most of this field, the ratings edge and the trainer-jockey combo do the heavy lifting here — this is the most identifiable edge in a murky race.

place9Avalon JettyML 5/1

Avalon Jetty at 5/1 rates second in our model at 53.33 and gets Martin Garcia aboard for trainer Jack Sisterson, whose operation has a strong reputation for bringing horses ready on debut. Without published speed figures, pedigree and trainer profile become the tiebreakers, and Sisterson's barn earns respect in that regard. He's a logical underneath play in a race where the top of the market is thin.

show12Elusive ConML 6/1

Elusive Con slots in third on our ratings at 51.67 with a 6/1 morning line that provides decent value in the show position. Trainer Christopher Davis sends Adam Beschizza to the gate from the #12 post — the outside draw can be tricky at 6 furlongs, but a horse with this kind of ratings pedigree has enough upside to hit the board. Include her in your exactas and trifectas as a show piece.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

The 5-furlong allowance sprint looks like a fascinating upset spot — our top-rated horse is NOT the morning line favorite, creating a potential value play that serious bettors will want to examine closely.

win9GigabitML 6/1

Gigabit is our pick to win at 6/1 despite Collective Beauty holding the 8/5 chalk — and that discrepancy is exactly where the value lives. Gigabit leads the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating, a 25% career win rate, and an avg speed figure of 56 that ties for the best in the race. Trainer Rey Hernandez puts Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. aboard, a jockey who knows how to quicken at the sprint distance. If you're looking for a best bet with overlay potential tonight, this is it.

place2Collective BeautyML 8/5

Collective Beauty is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and sits just behind Gigabit at a 78.94 rating — good enough to anchor the place position. Trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the elite conditioners in the country, and Fernando De La Cruz gives her a sharp rider from the #2 post. A 20% career win rate and an avg speed of 56 make her a legitimate contender; she's just not the value play our analysis identifies at the top.

show4MomentarioML 20/1

Momentario is a genuine price play at 20/1 for the show position, coming in with a 61.68 rating that ranks third in the field — well ahead of several shorter-priced horses. Trainer John Haran sends Jose Ramos Gutierrez out from the #4 post, and an avg speed of 55 is strong enough to compete in this sprint. At that morning line, tossing her into trifectas costs almost nothing relative to the potential return.

Race 7

9:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint with a tricky pace picture and a legitimate upset alert at the top — our model parts ways with the morning line, flagging a double-digit longshot as the top choice.

win9Air Up ThereML 10/1

Air Up There is our top pick at 10/1, and the case is built on hard numbers — a 75.91 TrackWiz rating (best in the field) and the field's highest avg speed figure of 55. Trainer Tim Eggleston puts Andres P. Ulloa aboard from the #9 post, and at 5½ furlongs, a horse with that kind of raw speed figure should be a factor at the top of the stretch. A 25% career win rate adds further credibility. This is exactly the kind of horse TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover.

place2StankaML 3/1

Stanka sits just behind Air Up There at 75.47 on our ratings and comes in with a 33% career win rate — one of the stronger records in the field. Trainer Randy L. Klopp sends Alberto Burgos out from the #2 post, and an avg speed of 54 is consistent with horses that compete at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's the logical place anchor and a strong exacta partner with our top pick.

show8Dolly's JoleneML 12/1

Dolly's Jolene at 12/1 represents a value-priced show ticket with a 73.96 rating — third-best in the field. Trainer Larry Rivelli gets Jareth Loveberry aboard, one of the sharper sprint riders working the Horseshoe grounds. Her 25% career win rate suggests she knows how to compete, and in a race where the top three horses are tightly bunched on ratings, she profiles as a live longshot who could easily sneak into the trifecta.

Race 8

9:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The 6-furlong claiming sprint features a clear ratings leader who is NOT the morning line favorite — exactly the kind of overlay that makes for a compelling best bet.

win6Crosstown ShootoutML 8/1

Crosstown Shootout leads all entrants with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating while sitting at an 8/1 morning line — that's the kind of disconnect our model is built to find. Trainer Shannon McGovern sends Rodney A. Prescott out from the #6 post, and an avg speed of 55 (tied for the field's best) shows this horse can generate real speed at the 6-furlong trip. A 24% career win rate gives him a proven track record of converting, and at that price in a claiming field, Crosstown Shootout is tonight's clearest value play.

place5GimmeethreestepsML 5/1

Gimmeethreesteps is a strong underneath play at 5/1 — a 77.28 rating, an avg speed of 55, and an impressive 30% career win rate that is the best in the field by a meaningful margin. Trainer John Haran puts Amir Mendoza aboard from the #5 post, and a horse that wins nearly a third of his starts is dangerous in any sprint field. He's a legitimate threat to win outright and earns a strong place spot in our analysis.

show3El RosilloML 6/1

El Rosillo rounds out our trifecta at 6/1 with a 60.67 rating that clears several shorter-priced entrants in the field. Trainer Michelle L. Elliott saddles Irving Moncada from the #3 post, and while his 11% career win rate is modest, the ratings edge over the bottom half of the field gives him a clear path to the board. He's a solid show inclusion and a reasonable exacta partner underneath the top two.

Race 9

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A 350-yard maiden sprint — the shortest race on the card — shifts into quarter horse territory where burst out of the gate is everything, and our ratings reveal a pair of standouts in an otherwise murky field.

win8Ivory JaynML 8/1

Ivory Jayn tops our ratings at 79.79 from the #8 post with jockey Diego Villamil Bocanegra in the irons for trainer Natasha Perez. At 350 yards, a horse lives or dies by her first few strides, and having the strongest composite rating in this maiden field is as close to an edge as you can get without published speed figures. The 8/1 morning line is a genuine overlay for a horse our model pegs as the top choice, making Ivory Jayn not just our selection but one of the night's better value plays.

place6Miss Ktb 23ML 7/2

Miss Ktb 23 is the morning line second choice at 7/2 and rates right behind Ivory Jayn on our model at 76.82 — a strong credentials match for the place position. Trainer Claudio Barraza sends Edgar Diaz to the gate from the #6 post, and in a 350-yard sprint, post position matters less than raw quickness. She's the natural exacta complement to our top pick and holds solid place credentials.

show5Secret SmokeML 5/1

Secret Smoke at 5/1 checks in with a 73.00 rating — third-best in the field and comfortably ahead of the rest of the pack. Trainer Ron Raper puts Cristian Penaloza aboard from the #5 post, and while no avg speed data is available for this field, the ratings separation is clear enough to justify her spot in the trifecta. At 5/1, she's a reasonable price for a horse our model identifies as the third-best option on paper.

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Today's best free bets are Pink Picture, Officer Gambill, and House of Gold to get your afternoon started — all three are well-supported by TrackWiz ratings and the track setup. For the full nine-race breakdown, including our 10/1 longshot angle in Race 7, the Crosstown Shootout value case in Race 8, and complete exotic ticket strategies, subscribers have everything they need. Not a subscriber yet? Head over to our pricing page and get in on the full card.

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