Daily Picks

Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Sunday, July 19, 202611 racesHawthorne

It's a gorgeous Sunday at Hawthorne Race Course — clear skies, 78°F, and zero excuses for staying home. The 11-race card stretches across both dirt and turf, giving us plenty of angles to attack from the jump. Firm turf and a fast dirt strip set up beautifully for speed horses today, so pace scenario is going to matter in almost every race.

We've got a nice mix of conditions on tap — Maiden Specials, Allowances, and a whole lot of Claiming action that tends to produce some of the sharpest wagering opportunities on any given card. With five turf races and six dirt routes and sprints, there's something here for every handicapping style. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate the field by just a handful of points — expect a competitive pace and a tight finish at the wire.

win4TummycatML 5/2

Tummycat draws the most favorable TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and steps onto the turf at 5 furlongs with trainer Michele Boyce saddling two horses in this race, suggesting strong stable confidence. The 5/2 morning line makes this the public's second choice, but our numbers actually push Tummycat to the top of the leaderboard. Luis H. Colon climbs aboard, and in a maiden field where nobody has a win on the board, the edge goes to the horse with the strongest composite rating.

place3RapidML 3/1

Rapid is the other Boyce-trained runner and grades out at 56.67 — just a tick below stablemate Tummycat — at a 3/1 morning line that offers a smidge of value. In a maiden sprint, having a trainer who knows both horses' capabilities gives Boyce a tactical advantage, and Rapid figures to be part of any pace conversation on this short turf course.

show5PhinarosaML 7/2

Phinarosa for Larry Rivelli checks in third in our ratings at 55.83 and goes postward at 7/2 — a fair price given the uncertainty of maiden turf racing. E.T. Baird gets the call, and Rivelli is a consistent presence at Hawthorne; connecting for a piece of this at a reasonable price makes Phinarosa a sensible exotic play.

Race 2

6:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Joe the Tailor's TrackWiz rating dwarfs the rest of this allowance turf field by a wide margin — this shapes up as a single-horse race with a scramble for the minor spots.

win4Joe the TailorML 5/2

Joe the Tailor is simply in a class of his own here — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next-best horse by nearly 30 points is a rare separation in any field. Trainer Armando Hernandez has him at 5/2 on the morning line, and Alexander Bendezu, one of the sharper sticks in this jockey colony, gets the mount. A 30% career win rate rounds out the profile of a horse who knows how to finish the job.

place6Urban RulerML 4/1

Urban Ruler is the second Hernandez horse in the race and grades out at 58.44 — the top mark among the non-Joe runners — at 4/1. An 18% career win rate is modest, but in a race where the field is likely competing for the place and show spots, Urban Ruler's strong rating among the secondary horses makes him the logical exacta partner with the top pick.

show5Shear MagicML 9/2

Shear Magic at 9/2 posts the best average speed figure among the supporting cast at 57, edging the rest of the field by a tick. Blake Kelly's runner shows a 25% career win rate, and that kind of consistency in a deep-enough field gives Shear Magic a real path to the show spot in the exacta and trifecta boxes.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lower Broadway enters this 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint as a clear class standout on ratings, but Big D and Gogh lurk as live threats capable of an upset if the pace sets up against the favorite.

win6Lower BroadwayML 2/1

Lower Broadway owns an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the field and nearly nine points clear of Big D in second — which is a substantial edge in a claiming sprint. John Haran sends this horse out at a somewhat generous 2/1 morning line, and Johanis Aranguren handles the riding duties. A 6% career win rate is low, but our composite numbers suggest this horse has the raw ability to outrun that modest conversion rate today.

place2Big DML 6/1

Big D is the value angle here at 6/1 morning line with a 79.74 rating — second in the field — and Luis H. Colon aboard for Hugo Rodriguez. A 9% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but the average speed of 54 is competitive, and at 6/1, Big D represents outstanding place value if the favorite hits any trouble at all.

show4GoghML 3/1

Gogh sits third in our ratings at 76.7 and is the 3/1 second choice on the morning line, with Michele Boyce training and Olaf Hernandez riding. A 14% career win rate is the best clip in this field, and 6 furlongs on dirt is a distance profile that suits horses with tactical speed — Gogh fits that description and deserves consideration in the trifecta.

Our free analysis kicks off with the first three races, and there's real substance to sink your teeth into right out of the gate. Tummycat draws the spotlight in Race 1, a Maiden Special Weight sprint on the turf — always a tricky puzzle with young horses, but our ratings like this one enough to make it the top play. Race 2 shifts to the allowance ranks at 5½ furlongs on the green stuff, where Joe the Tailor profiles as a strong contender at a morning line that still offers fair value at 5/2. Then Race 3 brings us to the dirt for a 6-furlong claimer, and Lower Broadway comes in as our highest-rated free pick of the trio with a morning line of 2/1 — the kind of short price that's justified when the numbers back it up.

The early turf races in particular should benefit from what looks like a firm, consistent surface today. Keep an eye on how horses are handling the footing in Race 1 — it can tell you a lot about what to expect in the premium turf races later in the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Zee is a clear ratings standout going against the morning line grain at 8/1 — this allowance optional claiming turf route sets up as a hidden value race where the public may be underestimating Michele Boyce's deeper horse.

win7ZeeML 8/1

Zee carries a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best in the field — yet somehow lands on the morning line at 8/1, suggesting the public hasn't caught on yet. Trainer Michele Boyce, who also runs Wednesday Addams here, fields Zee with Julio E. Felix in the irons. A 25% career win rate and an average speed of 55 — tied for tops in the field — make this look like a prime value opportunity at a price that should be much shorter.

place1Peacock RoadML 9/2

Peacock Road grabs the second-best rating in the field at 60.85 and brings a 20% career win rate into this allowance optional claiming turf affair. David R. Reid's horse draws the rail with Luis H. Colon, and at 9/2, there's legitimate value in using this horse underneath Zee in the exacta.

show4Wednesday AddamsML 4/1

Wednesday Addams for Michele Boyce — the stable's other runner — rates at 57.89 and owns the highest career win percentage in this field at 40%. Alexander Bendezu gets the mount at 4/1, making this a sneaky price for a horse that wins at an impressive clip, even if our overall rating ranks her third.

Race 5

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Long Tall Woman and Mary Moonglow lock horns as the top two rated horses in this dirt claiming sprint, setting up a pace duel that could leave the door cracked for a closet like Cocktail Cutie.

win3Long Tall WomanML 4/1

Long Tall Woman leads all horses in this race with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and posts a 24% career win rate — both best in the field — at a 4/1 morning line that offers genuine value over the 2/1 favorite. Trainer Francisco Villa sends out Luis H. Colon, and with an average speed of 55 against a field that mostly clusters at 53-54, the ability edge here is real. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, a horse with top numbers at fair odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz loves.

place4Mary MoonglowML 2/1

Mary Moonglow is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 81.55 rating — strong, but a step behind Long Tall Woman's numbers. Frank Reyes rides for Dino DiZeo, and an 18% career win rate backs up the public confidence. She belongs in exactas and trifectas and is a perfectly logical alternative if you want to lean toward the chalk.

show6Cocktail CutieML 6/1

Cocktail Cutie at 6/1 posts a 73.10 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — which looks undervalued at that morning line. Julio E. Felix rides for Omar Razvi, and while a 6% career win rate is humble, the rating alone suggests this horse has more ability than the odds imply. In a race where the top two might hook up on the front end, a closer profile could benefit.

Race 6

8:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Regimental stands well clear on TrackWiz ratings in this dirt route claimer, but faces a pace scenario that could be testing over a mile and 70 yards — the distance is the key question mark.

win3RegimentalML 5/1

Regimental's 84.17 TrackWiz rating leads this field by over 13 points, which is a considerable gap in a claiming route. Ricardo Rodriguez's horse goes postward at 5/1 — a morning line that doesn't reflect that ratings advantage — with Johanis Aranguren in the irons. A 7% career win rate is low, but our composite numbers weigh pace, class, and form together, and Regimental grades out as the clear top selection.

place4Stronger TogetherML 7/2

Stronger Together sits second in our ratings at 70.63 and is installed as the second choice at 7/2 with Alexander Bendezu up for Armando Hernandez. A 10% career win rate at an average speed of 52 puts this horse in the mix for the minor spots, and Bendezu's familiarity with this barn makes the connection worth noting.

show2License to StealML 6/1

License to Steal at 6/1 rates at 58.31 — a respectable third among the supporting cast — and Eduardo Rodriguez keeps Frank Reyes on board. An 11% win rate is modest but in a field with a lot of single-digit win percentage runners, that's actually one of the better conversion rates here. Use in trifecta exotics as a hedge.

Race 7

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Last Minute enters as a short-priced favorite with legitimate ratings backing, but Cantarito lurks at a tasty price that could make the exacta well worth a ticket.

win5Last MinuteML 8/5

Last Minute earns an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on today's entire Hawthorne card at the time of this race — and goes at 8/5, making this one of the more justified short favorites of the day. Hugo Rodriguez's horse carries an 18% career win rate with Alexander Bendezu aboard, and at 6 furlongs on dirt, that combination of elite ratings, top jockey, and competitive win percentage is hard to fade.

place4CantaritoML 9/2

Cantarito at 9/2 is the most compelling secondary play on the card, rating at 82.28 — second in this field by a wide margin — with a 14% career win rate for Heriberto Villalobos. Javier Tavares takes the mount, and in a race where the favorite draws most of the money, Cantarito offers excellent place value in a two-horse exacta that could pay very well.

show2Lavender EarlML 4/1

Lavender Earl rates at 66.26 with a 6% career win rate at 4/1, which honestly looks a touch short for a third-rated horse, but Carlos Ramirez's horse has an average speed of 54 that matches the field midrange. Frank Reyes gets the call, and if the pace collapses on the front end, Lavender Earl has the profile of a horse that can sneak into the exotics.

Race 8

10:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An unusually deep 11-horse turf claiming field at a mile and a sixteenth, with Even the Wind holding the ratings edge but multiple horses capable of making this a genuine scramble in the stretch.

win6Even the WindML 4/1

Even the Wind rates at 85.62 — tops in a field of 11 — and Alex Bendezu pilots this Chris M. Block-trained runner who owns a 4/1 morning line that represents solid overlay value. An 8% career win rate is modest, but Block has multiple horses in today's card and is clearly placing his runners with care. At 1 1/16 miles on turf, a horse with the best rating in the field and a sharp jockey has every right to be the top pick.

place3VitaleML 6/1

Vitale checks in second on our ratings at 78.58 with Pat Clay training and Ademar Santos in the irons at 6/1. A 12% career win rate is middle-of-the-road, but that rating gap between Vitale and the third-best horse (Lamplighter Jack at 70.31) is meaningful — Vitale rates as a clear second-best and the price makes him an attractive exacta play.

show7Lamplighter JackML 6/1

Lamplighter Jack for Manny Perez rates at 70.31 and brings a 28% career win rate — the second-best win conversion in this 11-horse field — at 6/1. Luis H. Colon picks up the mount, and in a race this large, a horse with that kind of win percentage has clearly figured out how to get to the winner's circle. He's a strong candidate to fill out the trifecta.

Race 9

10:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Man On Attack and Canyon Streak are the standout pair in this allowance turf mile, with a wide gap between the top two and a somewhat pricey dark horse from the Manny Perez barn rounding out the ticket.

win7Man On AttackML 3/1

Man On Attack earns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — at a 3/1 morning line that feels just about right given the field quality. Shane Childers sends out E.T. Baird, one of the most experienced jockeys in this colony, and a 5% career win rate is the one mild concern, though our composite rating accounts for more than just win count. At 1 mile on turf, this horse has the makings of a well-supported selection.

place5Canyon StreakML 9/5

Canyon Streak at 9/5 is the morning-line favorite with an 82.09 rating — second in the field — and an 18% career win rate that is the most compelling conversion percentage among the leading contenders. Hugo Rodriguez and Alexander Bendezu combine on this horse, making it a formidable pairing, though Man On Attack's ratings edge justifies flipping the order here.

show9Cash App MikeML 10/1

Cash App Mike at 10/1 shows a 57.69 TrackWiz rating — which is actually a significant step up from the mid-field horses — and Johanis Aranguren rides for Manny Perez. The price is the appeal: a 10/1 morning line on a horse that rates meaningfully above the lower half of the field is exactly the kind of longshot show inclusion that can turn a trifecta into a real score.

Race 10

11:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tum Tap is the dominant force in this short five-horse claiming sprint, posting a near-90 rating against a thin field — the real action here is in the exacta with Engagement.

win3Tum TapML 6/5

Tum Tap leads this five-horse field with an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest rating of any horse on today's full Hawthorne card — and a 25% career win rate that backs up the numbers. Michele Boyce and Luis H. Colon team up at 6/5 on the morning line, and while the short price limits win-bet value, the dominant ratings edge makes this as close to a must-use as you'll find today. At 6 furlongs on dirt with career-best markers across the board, this is the race's anchor.

place2EngagementML 5/2

Engagement rates at 84.94 — a strong second in a thin field — with Armando Hernandez training and Johanis Aranguren riding at 5/2. A 12% career win rate and an average speed of 54 show a horse that can compete at this level, and in a five-horse field where Tum Tap soaks up the action, Engagement is the logical exacta horse at a price that should hold.

show4D' ArgonautML 6/1

D' Argonaut at 6/1 is the third-best rated horse in the field at 64.04, which represents a meaningful drop-off from the top two but is still clear of the bottom of the field. Eduardo Rodriguez sends Frank Reyes out on this horse, and with only five runners, every horse has a path to the show spot. The 6/1 price on a horse this close to contending makes D' Argonaut worth including in trifecta tickets.

Race 11

11:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Code of Conduct is the class of this 7½-furlong turf closer, but Tizmeonemoretime offers an intriguing price as the second-best rated horse in a field where the pace could play perfectly for closers.

win7Code of ConductML 2/1

Code of Conduct owns an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — second-highest on the day's card at post time — and goes at 2/1 with Alexander Bendezu aboard for Pat Clay. A 12% career win rate with an average speed of 52 is solid for a turf route specialist, and in a closing stretch that favors horses with superior figures, this horse has the profile to run them all down. Clay and Bendezu is a combination worth taking seriously at Hawthorne.

place1TizmeonemoretimeML 9/2

Tizmeonemoretime rates at 69.12 — second in the field with a healthy gap over the third horse — and goes at 9/2 for Rigo Rosas with Julio E. Felix in the irons. The 4% career win rate is low but the TrackWiz composite suggests far more ability than that number implies, and at 9/2, there's real place value here against a morning-line favorite that figures to absorb most of the handle.

show2Daisy Mae AttackML 4/1

Daisy Mae Attack at 4/1 rates at 64.70 — third in the field — and Shane Childers runs this horse with Angel Ortega Stanley up. A 10% career win rate is the best clip among the secondary horses in this race, and on a yielding turf surface over 7½ furlongs, a horse with steady figures and a sharp barn can easily creep into the trifecta spots.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Hawthorne is handing us a clean, competitive 11-race card on a picture-perfect afternoon. Our free top picks — Tummycat, Joe the Tailor, and Lower Broadway — give every reader a strong foundation. But if you're playing the full card or building exotics, the premium analysis on Last Minute, Tum Tap, and the rest of the lineup is where the edge lives. Good luck today — may your picks run true and your prices hold.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3