Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

Big D is the value angle here at 6/1 morning line with a 79.74 rating — second in the field — and Luis H. Colon aboard for Hugo Rodriguez. A 9% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but the average speed of 54 is competitive, and at 6/1, Big D represents outstanding place value if the favorite hits any trouble at all.

Gogh sits third in our ratings at 76.7 and is the 3/1 second choice on the morning line, with Michele Boyce training and Olaf Hernandez riding. A 14% career win rate is the best clip in this field, and 6 furlongs on dirt is a distance profile that suits horses with tactical speed — Gogh fits that description and deserves consideration in the trifecta.

Peacock Road grabs the second-best rating in the field at 60.85 and brings a 20% career win rate into this allowance optional claiming turf affair. David R. Reid's horse draws the rail with Luis H. Colon, and at 9/2, there's legitimate value in using this horse underneath Zee in the exacta.

Wednesday Addams for Michele Boyce — the stable's other runner — rates at 57.89 and owns the highest career win percentage in this field at 40%. Alexander Bendezu gets the mount at 4/1, making this a sneaky price for a horse that wins at an impressive clip, even if our overall rating ranks her third.

Mary Moonglow is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 81.55 rating — strong, but a step behind Long Tall Woman's numbers. Frank Reyes rides for Dino DiZeo, and an 18% career win rate backs up the public confidence. She belongs in exactas and trifectas and is a perfectly logical alternative if you want to lean toward the chalk.

Cocktail Cutie at 6/1 posts a 73.10 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — which looks undervalued at that morning line. Julio E. Felix rides for Omar Razvi, and while a 6% career win rate is humble, the rating alone suggests this horse has more ability than the odds imply. In a race where the top two might hook up on the front end, a closer profile could benefit.

Stronger Together sits second in our ratings at 70.63 and is installed as the second choice at 7/2 with Alexander Bendezu up for Armando Hernandez. A 10% career win rate at an average speed of 52 puts this horse in the mix for the minor spots, and Bendezu's familiarity with this barn makes the connection worth noting.

License to Steal at 6/1 rates at 58.31 — a respectable third among the supporting cast — and Eduardo Rodriguez keeps Frank Reyes on board. An 11% win rate is modest but in a field with a lot of single-digit win percentage runners, that's actually one of the better conversion rates here. Use in trifecta exotics as a hedge.

Cantarito at 9/2 is the most compelling secondary play on the card, rating at 82.28 — second in this field by a wide margin — with a 14% career win rate for Heriberto Villalobos. Javier Tavares takes the mount, and in a race where the favorite draws most of the money, Cantarito offers excellent place value in a two-horse exacta that could pay very well.

Lavender Earl rates at 66.26 with a 6% career win rate at 4/1, which honestly looks a touch short for a third-rated horse, but Carlos Ramirez's horse has an average speed of 54 that matches the field midrange. Frank Reyes gets the call, and if the pace collapses on the front end, Lavender Earl has the profile of a horse that can sneak into the exotics.

Vitale checks in second on our ratings at 78.58 with Pat Clay training and Ademar Santos in the irons at 6/1. A 12% career win rate is middle-of-the-road, but that rating gap between Vitale and the third-best horse (Lamplighter Jack at 70.31) is meaningful — Vitale rates as a clear second-best and the price makes him an attractive exacta play.

Lamplighter Jack for Manny Perez rates at 70.31 and brings a 28% career win rate — the second-best win conversion in this 11-horse field — at 6/1. Luis H. Colon picks up the mount, and in a race this large, a horse with that kind of win percentage has clearly figured out how to get to the winner's circle. He's a strong candidate to fill out the trifecta.

Canyon Streak at 9/5 is the morning-line favorite with an 82.09 rating — second in the field — and an 18% career win rate that is the most compelling conversion percentage among the leading contenders. Hugo Rodriguez and Alexander Bendezu combine on this horse, making it a formidable pairing, though Man On Attack's ratings edge justifies flipping the order here.

Cash App Mike at 10/1 shows a 57.69 TrackWiz rating — which is actually a significant step up from the mid-field horses — and Johanis Aranguren rides for Manny Perez. The price is the appeal: a 10/1 morning line on a horse that rates meaningfully above the lower half of the field is exactly the kind of longshot show inclusion that can turn a trifecta into a real score.

Engagement rates at 84.94 — a strong second in a thin field — with Armando Hernandez training and Johanis Aranguren riding at 5/2. A 12% career win rate and an average speed of 54 show a horse that can compete at this level, and in a five-horse field where Tum Tap soaks up the action, Engagement is the logical exacta horse at a price that should hold.

D' Argonaut at 6/1 is the third-best rated horse in the field at 64.04, which represents a meaningful drop-off from the top two but is still clear of the bottom of the field. Eduardo Rodriguez sends Frank Reyes out on this horse, and with only five runners, every horse has a path to the show spot. The 6/1 price on a horse this close to contending makes D' Argonaut worth including in trifecta tickets.

Tizmeonemoretime rates at 69.12 — second in the field with a healthy gap over the third horse — and goes at 9/2 for Rigo Rosas with Julio E. Felix in the irons. The 4% career win rate is low but the TrackWiz composite suggests far more ability than that number implies, and at 9/2, there's real place value here against a morning-line favorite that figures to absorb most of the handle.

Daisy Mae Attack at 4/1 rates at 64.70 — third in the field — and Shane Childers runs this horse with Angel Ortega Stanley up. A 10% career win rate is the best clip among the secondary horses in this race, and on a yielding turf surface over 7½ furlongs, a horse with steady figures and a sharp barn can easily creep into the trifecta spots.