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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 3, 2026

August 3, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on August 3, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, August 3, 2026

Race 14Boston BayML 3/112:15 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Fort Erie is putting up a clean, seven-race Monday card and conditions couldn't be much better — clear skies and a comfortable 72°F with no weather drama to muddy the handicapping. When the track comes up fast and the turf is firm, pace scenarios tighten up and horses that can control their own destiny get a major edge. Keep that in mind all day.

The card mixes things up nicely: five dirt sprints and routes, a pair of turf outings including a mile Starter Optional Claiming in Race 4, and class levels that run the gamut from claiming to allowance. There's enough variety here to keep the ticket-builders busy from first post to finale.

Our TrackWiz ratings flagged several horses well ahead of their morning lines — always a sign there's real value hiding in this card. Read on for the full breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't top our ratings in this 6-furlong dirt claimer — Boston Bay looks like the class of the field while Golden Test opens as the public's pick at 7/5.

win4Boston BayML 3/1

Boston Bay draws our top rating at 87.08 despite going off at a generous 3/1 on the morning line — that gap between public opinion and our numbers is exactly the kind of overlay we want. Luis R. Reyes gets the call for trainer Joseph Humber, and the 6-furlong dirt trip suits this horse's profile. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top contenders in this field, and while a 6% career win rate seems modest, our model sees something in the recent form cycle that pushes this horse to the top of the ratings.

place3Video EvidenceML 2/1

Video Evidence is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — a 15% career win rate is among the best in this field, and trainer Julie Mathes has this horse ready to fire. Our rating of 81.04 is second-best in the race, making this a logical place horse that should hit the board even if Boston Bay beats it home.

show5Golden TestML 7/5

Golden Test will attract the most public money at 7/5, and we don't hate the horse — a 73.67 rating and 11% career win rate are respectable. At those odds there's limited win value, but trainer Anthony Adamo's horses tend to run their races consistently, making Golden Test a solid show ticket in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Where Is Essa tops our ratings by a clear margin at 9/2 in a six-horse claiming sprint, offering a rare combination of model edge and morning-line value.

win3Where Is EssaML 9/2

Where Is Essa carries our top rating of 84.90 in this field and goes postward at 9/2 — that's the sweet spot where our numbers and the odds actually work in your favor. Trainer Sharon Ceccato keeps this horse in familiar conditions, and Juan Crawford is a sharp pilot for a horse that needs to be in the right spot early in a 6-furlong sprint. A 17% career win rate is respectable at this level, and the average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix with the top contenders.

place1Sea to AirML 5/2

Sea to Air brings the field's best career win rate at 23% — in a claiming race at this level, proven winners at the windows matter. Trainer Jeff Voyce puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira aboard, and the 68.12 rating at 5/2 morning line means this horse will be prominent in the wagering. A solid place option if Where Is Essa gets to the wire first.

show2Paperback HeroML 6/1

Paperback Hero at 6/1 is the value arm of the exotics here — an 18% career win rate and a 61.61 rating make this horse competitive at a price the public might overlook. Trainer Roy George Agostino and jockey Leo Salles know this horse, and getting Paperback Hero in a trifecta underneath at morning-line odds of 6/1 looks like solid value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races are free for every TrackWiz reader, and all three go six furlongs on the dirt — back-to-back-to-back sprints to kick off the afternoon. That's actually a gift for handicappers, because pace patterns and surface bias become much easier to read once you've seen two or three runs on the same strip. If early speed is getting a free pass through the opening quarter, lean into it. If closers are firing late, adjust fast.

Boston Bay (Race 1, morning line 3/1, TrackWiz rating 87.08) sits at the top of our free card and projects as a solid win bet anchor. Where Is Essa in Race 2 (9/2 ML, 84.90 rating) is a touch lower rated but opens at a price that demands attention — value plays like this can quietly carry the most profitable afternoons. Stirling Castle in Race 3 (7/2 ML, 86.35) rounds out the free trio as a well-rated contender you won't want to miss. All three analyses are available right now, no subscription needed.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses bunched tightly between 83 and 87 in our ratings make this a genuinely competitive 6-furlong dirt claimer — Stirling Castle leads the way by the slimmest of margins.

win4Stirling CastleML 7/2

Stirling Castle tops our ratings at 86.35 and flashes the field's best career win percentage at a commanding 30% — that kind of winning habit is something you can't manufacture. Sofia Vives slides into the irons for trainer Anthony Adamo, and the 7/2 morning line gives this horse a touch of overlay given the ratings edge. The average speed figure of 54 is consistent, and horses with a 30% win rate tend to find a way to compete even when conditions aren't perfect.

place3Rye's My GuyML 2/1

Rye's My Guy is razor-close in our ratings at 83.72, just 0.63 points behind our top pick, which tells you how tight this race shapes up. Trainer Sharon Ceccato sends out Juan Crawford — a combination that's been in the winner's circle at Fort Erie this meet — and an average speed of 55 actually gives this horse a slight edge in raw figures. At 2/1 on the morning line, Rye's My Guy is the natural place anchor.

show2Half to ReloadML 3/1

Half to Reload rounds out a very tight top three with an 83.33 rating and posts the field's top average speed figure tied at 56 alongside Forest Buzz. Trainer Michael J. Blake puts Helen Marie Vanek up, and a 17% career win rate shows this horse can finish. At 3/1, there's modest value in including Half to Reload in your exotics as a show hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Knotty and Nice stands out as a clear class edge on the turf mile in this Starter Optional Claimer, with a field that's surprisingly open behind the top pick.

win1Knotty and NiceML 5/2

Knotty and Nice leads our ratings by a wide margin at 87.81 — the next-best horse in this field checks in at 53.24, which is a significant gap by any measure. Trainer Julie Mathes has this horse primed for the 1-mile turf trip, and Kirk Johnson is a capable rider who can rate a horse in a route. The 14% career win rate and 5/2 morning line make this the race's most straightforward top selection.

place4Silent PatsyML 8/1

Silent Patsy at 8/1 on the morning line is the value play of this race — a 53.24 rating leads the rest of the field behind Knotty and Nice, and trainer Valerie Thompson puts Luis Contreras up for the 1-mile turf run. A 10% career win rate understates what our model sees in the recent form, and at morning-line odds of 8/1, this horse has real place-ticket value if the favorite handles the favorite's duties.

show5Iron PyriteML 5/1

Iron Pyrite rounds out our top three at 49.82 — trainer Julie Mathes has a second string in this race, which tells you she's comfortable with the conditions. At 5/1 morning line and a 14% career win rate, Xarel Forde gets the mount and should have this horse in a comfortable spot on the turf. Worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Speedy Connection looks like the real deal in this allowance sprint — a top rating and short price signal genuine class, but Doadster adds intrigue at a mid-range price.

win4Speedy ConnectionML 9/5

Speedy Connection tops our ratings at 88.83 — the highest mark of any horse across the first five races on today's card — and gets in at 9/5 on the morning line in this allowance sprint. Trainer Anthony Adamo sends out Xarel Forde for the 6.5-furlong dirt run, and a 14% career win rate at the allowance level suggests consistent competitiveness. The average speed figure of 54 is solid, and our model has strong conviction here.

place3DoadsterML 3/1

Doadster is the interesting piece of this puzzle — a 72.78 rating and an average speed figure of 56 (tied for best in the field) suggest there's raw ability here that hasn't fully translated to wins yet. Trainer Jeff Voyce puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira up, and at 3/1, this horse offers real place value with upside if the pace scenario sets up for a closer.

show2Red DML 5/2

Red D brings legitimate credentials into this allowance — a 57.50 rating and an eye-opening 50% career win rate show this horse knows how to finish in front. Sofia Vives takes the mount for trainer Desmond Maynard, and at 5/2 morning line, Red D will likely be near the front of the wagering pool. The small sample implied by that win rate deserves a note of caution, but the talent appears real.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ashcar Nellie dominates our ratings in this 5.5-furlong Starter Optional Claimer and brings a 33% career win rate that's hard to ignore — value play Legs Like Flatter lurks at a decent price.

win2Ashcar NellieML 3/1

Ashcar Nellie is our strongest play in Race 6 — an 87.08 rating combined with a 33% career win rate makes this horse the standout on paper and in our model. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg puts Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin in the saddle for the 5.5-furlong sprint, and an average speed of 55 gives this horse a slight raw-figure edge over much of the field. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse that profiles as a fair-priced favorite — not chalk, not an overlay, just a legitimate top selection.

place4Legs Like FlatterML 5/1

Legs Like Flatter at 5/1 is a compelling place option — a 70.71 rating and a 30% career win rate are both excellent markers at this level, and trainer Sharon Ceccato has Juan Crawford up for the sprint. Our model has this horse clearly third in the ratings but well clear of the bottom half of the field, making 5/1 morning-line odds look generous for a place ticket.

show1Get Out the VoteML 4/1

Get Out the Vote rounds out our top three at 59.13 and opens at 4/1 — trainer John Simms sends Ismael Eluid Mosqueira out for the 5.5-furlong run, and a 13% career win rate is workmanlike at this level. This horse profiles as a steady mid-pack type that can hit the board in a compact sprint, and 4/1 odds make it worth a show ticket or a bottom inclusion on trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A nine-horse turf field at 7 furlongs sets up as a two-horse battle at the top of our ratings — Coach Caley and Alta Calibre are separated by just 3.5 points, with a wide-open show battle behind them.

win4Coach CaleyML 5/2

Coach Caley tops our ratings at 87.81 in this nine-horse turf claimer, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the public's respect. Trainer Julie Mathes — who also runs Ala Turka in this field — clearly likes what she's seen from this horse, and Chad Lee is a pilot who knows how to manage pace on the turf. A 16% career win rate over what's likely a turf-heavy résumé backs up the model's confidence here.

place6Alta CalibreML 7/2

Alta Calibre is the real competition for Coach Caley — an 84.26 rating and a field-best 23% career win rate make this a dangerous place horse at 7/2. Trainer Sharon Ceccato runs two horses in this race (Alta Calibre and Sigiriya), and Juan Crawford is clearly the preferred pilot here. At 7 furlongs on turf, an experienced winner with that win percentage is exactly the horse you want for place coverage.

show8Ala TurkaML 6/1

Ala Turka at 6/1 morning line is a sneaky show play — a 73.29 rating puts this horse third in the field behind our top two, and trainer Julie Mathes running two horses in the same race (Coach Caley being the other) typically means both are live. Brian A. Cheyne picks up the mount, and a 13% career win rate combined with an average speed of 54 makes this a legitimate show contender worth adding to trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Fort Erie is serving up a legitimate seven-race card on a beautiful afternoon, and TrackWiz has you covered from the first claiming sprint right through to the turf closer. Boston Bay, Where Is Essa, and Stirling Castle are your free best bets to start the card — sharp plays at workable prices. Full pace analysis, exotic breakdowns, and premium picks for Races 4–7 are waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck, and let's make Monday count.

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