Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026
Fort Erie is open for business on a pleasant Tuesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 78°F, and conditions that should keep both the dirt and turf surfaces playing fair. Six races are on the slate, mixing claiming company, allowance tests, and a maiden special weight on the lawn to close things out.
It's a compact card, but don't let that fool you. There's genuine betting interest spread across all six races, from a short-field sprint opener to a route allowance that should draw serious attention. The turf appearances in Races 3 and 6 add a surface wrinkle worth tracking, especially if the going firms up under that afternoon sun.
TrackWiz has full ratings on every runner in every race. Three races are free for everyone — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the complete card breakdown available to subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt
A clear class standout sits atop this 5-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line suggests bettors will be asked to lay a short price — making the place and show spots genuinely interesting.
People Are People (5) is the horse to beat here and it's not particularly close on our ratings — an 89.12 TrackWiz score is the best in the field by more than 14 points. What really stands out is a 22% career win rate, which is the highest in this bunch and a serious edge in a field where most rivals are hovering in the low-to-mid teens. Trainer Anthony Adamo sends this one out at 8/5 on the morning line, and the pace setup over 5 furlongs on dirt should suit a horse that profiles as one of the quickest away. At that price you're not getting rich, but the form says this is the right play.
Cantucci (4) is the logical safety net at 7/2 on the morning line, posting a solid 74.69 rating — second-best in the race. The 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a claiming field like this, finishing consistently in the money matters more than peak wins, and Alexis Sanchez in the irons adds competent handling at a short sprint distance.
Truly Mischief (6) has a 19% career win rate, the second-highest in the field, and her 53.23 rating is in the middle of the pack — but at 5/2 she represents decent value for exotic coverage. Trainer Claudia Rabstein has a horse with legitimate closing ability at this level, and she's worth including in trifecta construction at a price that won't crater your tickets.
Race 2
Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
An allowance mile-plus route that looks like a two-horse race on paper, but a pair of fringe contenders could make things interesting if the pace scenario sets up for late runners.
Baxley (1) is as close to a standout as you'll find anywhere on the card today — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating paired with an eye-popping 46% career win rate is the kind of profile that makes handicapping easy. Trainer Harold Ladouceur has this horse dialed in, and Prayven Badrie up front is a sharp booking. The even-money morning line is short, yes, but the numbers back it up emphatically over this extended dirt route.
Scat Factor (3) rates second in the field at 73.78 and is being sent off at 9/2 by the morning line — that's a fair price for a horse with a 17% career win rate in an allowance field. Trainer Alison Jennings places horses well, and Alexis Sanchez aboard gives this one a rider who has already been busy today. If Baxley takes this loose from the front, Scat Factor is well-positioned to inherit second money.
If You Insist (5) brings a 29% career win rate to the table — the second-highest in this field behind Baxley — and that kind of consistency is worth noting even if the 67.99 rating puts her a clear step below the top two. Juan Crawford gets the mount at 2/1 on the line, and for trifecta players, this one makes a logical third leg without breaking the bank.
Race 3
Claiming · 7 fur · Turf
Seven horses converge on the Fort Erie turf for this 7-furlong claimer, and the ratings are remarkably compressed at the top — four horses are separated by fewer than 10 points, setting up a potential pace battle with a genuine photo-finish feel.
Rhumbaba (1) tops our ratings at 85.62, a slim but meaningful advantage over a very competitive field. The 4/1 morning line is attractive given that top rating, and trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. doubles up in this race — always worth noting when a barn sends out multiple horses, it often signals confidence in a specific runner. Helen Marie Vanek picks up the call, and while the 6% career win rate is modest, turf racing tends to reward horses that rate well on form cycles over raw win percentages.
Final Run for Love (5) is one of the tightest calls on the card — an 81.11 rating, virtually identical to Wolf Beach's 81.04, and Juan Crawford in the saddle is a strong booking at this level. The 3/1 morning line offers real value for a horse that profiles as a solid closer on the Fort Erie turf, and trainer Roy George Agostino has been active all day, suggesting a barn in good form.
Wolf Beach (3) rates at 81.04 and goes postward at 5/2, making her the morning-line second choice in a field where the top five horses are genuinely close. Emile Ramsammy and trainer Michael Cohen are a reliable combination on the turf, and at 7 furlongs there's enough ground for this horse to find a comfortable trip. A solid show pick for exotic players looking for coverage across the top of this deep field.
Our three free races today give you a nice cross-section of the card. People Are People opens the day as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 in the 5-furlong dirt sprint — that TrackWiz rating of 89.12 suggests the price is about right, but there may be a spot to use underneath. Race 2 is the headliner of the free portion: Baxley at even money in the allowance route, posting a clean 90.00 rating that makes this one of the strongest horses on the card. When a horse this sharp goes off at even money, you need a clear reason to fade — and we don't have one.
Rhumbaba rounds out the free picks, drawing a 4/1 morning line on the turf in Race 3. That's the kind of number that catches our eye — a competitive rating of 85.62 at a price that suggests the public hasn't fully bought in yet. The 7-furlong turf trip plays to closers at Fort Erie, so pace scenario will matter here.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Baxley is the most confident play on the free card, Rhumbaba is the value angle to watch on the turf, and the premium half of this card has at least one overlay worth building a ticket around. Six races, good weather, and a couple of horses the public might be sleeping on — that's a solid afternoon at Fort Erie. Full analysis for all six races is available to TrackWiz subscribers.