Daily Picks

Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

Sunday, June 21, 20268 racesFort Erie

Fort Erie is open for business on the first official day of summer, and conditions couldn't be more cooperative. Clear skies, a comfortable 70°F, and a dirt track that figures to play fast all afternoon — that's the setup for an 8-race card that has a little something for everyone, from claiming grinders to genuine stakes action.

The headline attractions are a pair of 5½-furlong stakes sprints in Races 4 and 6, and that second one in particular catches the eye — Garofoli opens as the even-money morning line favorite with the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 90. When a horse draws that kind of number in a stakes spot, you pay attention.

Eight races, two turf routes, two stakes, and a Maiden Special Weight that could quietly be one of the trickiest cards to navigate. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short 6-furlong dirt claimer that looks like a two-horse show on paper, but Zipfire's raw speed could shake things up if the pace gets hot early.

win1Shes Hot to TrotML 9/5

Shes Hot to Trot carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 — a full 20 points clear of the next-best horse — and that kind of separation at this level demands respect. Trainer Julie Mathes has her pointed right, and Desean Bynoe is a capable handler for a front-runner profile at 6 furlongs. The 9/5 morning line is fair given the edge she holds; if she breaks cleanly and settles on the lead, this could be a wire-to-wire score.

place3Cinnamon BitsML 2/1

Cinnamon Bits lands at 2/1 on the morning line and posts a solid 68.68 TrackWiz rating, third in the field. A 10% career win rate in claiming company isn't flashy, but Juan Crawford gives her a live rider, and she figures to be running on late if the pace collapses in front. Good place horse in a race where the top two are clearly separated from the rest.

show4ZipfireML 3/1

Zipfire holds the best average speed figure in this field at 54 and has a respectable 13% career win rate at the claiming level. Trainer Dale A. Powell sends her out at 3/1 with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin in the irons, a combo worth noting. Her speed makes her a natural show safety valve — even if she can't sustain it all the way, she should be involved at the wire.

Race 2

4:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The extra distance of a mile and 70 yards on dirt sorts out the distance horses from the sprinters, and the numbers point to a clear top two that should battle it out from gate to wire.

win4ClarayouthebestML 9/5

Clarayouthebest tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 — matching the field-best figure — and brings an 18% career win rate into what looks like a prime spot. The 9/5 morning line is accurate for a horse this far above her competition on the numbers, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin riding for trainer Joseph Humber is a tandem that knows how to win at Fort Erie. The extra distance over a mile should suit a horse with this kind of overall rating.

place1Frac AmourML 2/1

Frac Amour is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and holds a 71.04 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Julie Mathes saddles her with Kirk Johnson up, and a 12% career win rate at this level suggests she's a consistent performer who rarely runs a bad one. She's the logical main threat to the top pick and worth including underneath in exactas.

show2Hot OmeletML 7/2

Hot Omelet stands out for one glaring reason: a 24% career win rate that leads this entire field by a wide margin. That kind of hit rate in claiming company tells you this horse knows how to get to the wire first, and trainer Joshua Robillard is sending her out at a juicy 7/2. Even if she's not quite the best on paper today, a horse that wins nearly a quarter of its starts deserves a show spot in your ticket.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint has a genuinely interesting dynamic — the morning-line favorite Momaxie is a 40% career winner but sits below Brengungirl on the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a real pace versus class debate.

win1BrengungirlML 5/2

Brengungirl tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and brings a 22% career win rate into allowance company — strong credentials at this level. The 5/2 price is fair for a horse with this rating edge, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin for trainer Joseph Humber is a winning combination on this circuit. At six furlongs on dirt, she should be comfortable settling just off the early pace before making her move.

place5MomaxieML 6/5

Momaxie is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 for a reason — a 40% career win rate is legitimately elite, the best in this field by a wide margin. Trainer Steven Cathcart has her sharp, and Juan Crawford knows how to get the most out of a horse at this distance. Our analysis slots her second because the ratings tilt toward Brengungirl, but she's a must-use underneath and could absolutely flip the result.

show2Firecracker FionaML 3/1

Firecracker Fiona sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.92 and actually posts the best average speed figure in the race at 54. Trainer Michaela Neubauer sends her out at 3/1 with Kirk Johnson — a live booking — and an 18% career win rate shows she can compete at this level. If the top two set up a pace duel, Fiona is the natural beneficiary rolling late.

Our three free previews — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a strong foundation to start the day. Shes Hot to Trot (Race 1, 88.83 rating) and Clarayouthebest (Race 2, 88.83 rating) both sit at 9/5 on the morning line, suggesting the oddsmakers agree with TrackWiz that these are the horses to beat. On a clear day with a surface that should reward early speed, keep an eye on pace scenario in that 6-furlong opener — horses that can settle near the front without burning up shouldn't have much trouble holding on.

Race 3 shifts to an allowance condition, where Brengungirl (87.81) goes off at 5/2. Allowance company tends to separate horses more cleanly than claiming fields, and her number gives her a legitimate edge. All three free picks project confidence without demanding you take a leap of faith — a nice way to ease into the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes company at 5½ furlongs on dirt, and Soupergirl looks like a dominant class standout — but Get Out the Vote brings intriguing value at 5/1 if the pace scenario plays into closer hands.

win1SoupergirlML 9/5

Soupergirl is the class of this field any way you slice it — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate that is simply remarkable at any level, and the best average speed figure in the race at 55. Kirk Johnson gets the call for trainer Anthony Adamo, and this duo has to be respected in stakes company. At 9/5, the price isn't generous but the credentials are as strong as you'll see in a field like this.

place4Get Out the VoteML 5/1

Get Out the Vote is our value play underneath at 5/1 morning line. A 72.78 TrackWiz rating puts him solidly in the mix, and trainer John Simms with Steve Jadoo up is a combination that fires at this meet. A 15% career win rate in stakes company shows he belongs, and at a price almost three times the favorite, he's the type of horse that makes exactas and exacta boxes pay.

show2Empty GestureML 2/1

Empty Gesture brings a 56 average speed figure — the best in the field — and a 21% career win rate that ranks second among the starters. Trainer Sharon Ceccato sends her out at 2/1, and Juan Crawford is always a reliable presence in the irons. Even if Soupergirl is too good, Empty Gesture's raw speed makes her a logical contender to be chasing the winner home.

Race 5

6:07 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open nine-horse Starter Optional Claiming field on the turf at 7 furlongs — the surface switch and extra distance will separate the grass specialists from the pretenders, and the TrackWiz ratings tell a cleaner story than the odds board.

win8If You InsistML 3/1

If You Insist carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 and owns a sparkling 26% career win rate — second-best among all starters. Trainer Mark Fournier sends him out at 3/1 with Juan Crawford in the saddle, and Crawford is one of the busiest and sharpest riders on the Fort Erie grounds. Seven furlongs on turf suits a horse with his profile, and the rating edge over a competitive field is the kind of separation our analysis looks for in multi-horse fields.

place3MannixML 2/1

Mannix is the 2/1 morning-line choice and second on the TrackWiz board at 80.46 — he and Kirk Johnson make an appealing combo for trainer Gary Chudobiak. An 18% career win rate shows consistent competitiveness, and his pace profile suggests he'll be forwardly placed, which matters at 7 furlongs on grass. He's a natural underneath horse if If You Insist gets the trip right.

show9Stylish GentML 5/2

Stylish Gent brings a 67.04 rating and a 21% career win rate into this spot, which is above-average for a field this size. Anthony Adamo conditions him well, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is a rider who wins consistently at this oval. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's not a huge price, but his career win percentage suggests he competes hard and finishes close enough to hit the board regularly.

Race 6

6:35 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Garofoli looms as a heavy favorite in this 5½-furlong dirt stakes, but the 9/2 and 10/1 shots underneath offer legitimate upset potential if the even-money chalk has any vulnerability on the day.

win4GarofoliML EVN

Garofoli is simply the class of this field — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating (the highest of any horse on today's entire card), a 28% career win rate, and the best average speed figure in the race at 56. Trainer Anthony Adamo with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is arguably the sharpest horse-and-rider combo at Fort Erie right now, and at even money, the market is pricing him as the clear standout. In a short field at a sprint distance, this horse has to be the foundation of all your tickets.

place3Mia and MeML 9/2

Mia and Me checks in with the third-best TrackWiz rating at 59.44 and owns a 21% career win rate — strong for a horse at this odds range. Trainer Joseph Humber is well-represented today, and Melanie Pinto has the experience to rate her off what could be a fast early pace. At 9/2, she's worth including underneath if you're looking to push the exotics past the chalk.

show5Star ScholarML 10/1

Star Scholar is a genuine longshot at 10/1 but makes an interesting show dart for a specific reason: her average speed figure of 55 is tied for second-best in the field, suggesting she's capable of generating competitive numbers even if her 6% career win rate doesn't scream confidence. Trainer John Simms is live on this card with multiple starters, and Juan Crawford aboard keeps the connections respectable. Show-only territory for the casual player.

Race 7

7:03 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight fields are always a puzzle since every horse is still looking for that first win, but the TrackWiz ratings create a clear top tier here — with one standout at manageable odds and a legitimate threat hiding at 5/1.

win6NakedintheforestML 2/1

Nakedintheforest carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating on today's entire card at 88.54 and leads this maiden field by a comfortable margin. She also posts the best average speed figure in the race at 55, which matters enormously in a 6-furlong dirt sprint where early position is everything. Trainer Roy George Agostino sends her out at 2/1 with Alexis Sanchez aboard, and the odds accurately reflect her standing as the class of this field. In maiden races, you trust the numbers — and the numbers say this is her race to lose.

place2Strike a NoteML 5/1

Strike a Note sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.14, a strong number for a maiden, and pairs that with a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Joseph Humber is having a productive day on the card, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is a natural fit in the irons. At 5/1, there's real place value here — if Nakedintheforest hits any traffic or tactical issues, Strike a Note has the raw ability to run her down.

show7Blue's MommyML 3/1

Blue's Mommy is third in the TrackWiz ratings at 60.79 and goes to the gate at 3/1 morning line, trained by the John Simms barn which has multiple live shots today. A 52 average speed figure is workable in this maiden company, and Steve Jadoo is a steady hand who won't waste ground. She's a logical show piece in a race where the top two are well-established — if anything goes sideways in front, she could hit the board.

Race 8

7:31 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

Nine horses go at 5 furlongs on the Fort Erie turf in an allowance that has a solid top tier but a wide-open underneath, making this a prime race to target in exactas and trifectas.

win9Four Beach FriendsML 5/2

Four Beach Friends tops this field with an 85.54 TrackWiz rating and posts a 55 average speed figure, tied for the best in the race. Trainer Anthony Adamo — who has been formidable all day — sends her out with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, a jockey who has shown a real feel for the Fort Erie turf course. An 8% career win rate may look modest, but the raw rating says she's been performing at a high level, and five furlongs on grass plays right into a horse with her speed profile.

place2Jersey KingML 6/1

Jersey King checks in second on the TrackWiz board at 82.71 and brings the best career win percentage in this field at 25% — a number that jumps off the page. Trainer Ken Albu saddles him at 6/1, which represents real value for a horse this capable, and Christoff Douglas gets the ride. His win rate alone suggests he competes hard and finishes close, and 6/1 on a 25% lifetime winner in allowance company is where place bets pay off.

show5HeavylikeachevyML 5/2

Heavylikeachevy holds an 80.98 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and pairs it with a 55 average speed figure alongside a 9% win rate. Trainer Julie Mathes is well-represented at Fort Erie today, and Brian A. Cheyne is a dependable rider for a horse in this spot. She's a natural show hedge at 5/2 in a race where the top three on our board are closely bunched, and any of them could hit the board.

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A clean summer afternoon at Fort Erie, two stakes sprints anchoring the card, and Garofoli as the day's top-rated horse — there's plenty to work with here. Start with the free picks on Shes Hot to Trot, Clarayouthebest, and Brengungirl, then let our premium analysis guide you through the stakes races and exotic angles that could make this a very profitable Sunday. Full card coverage is available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium — good luck at the windows.

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