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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — October 13, 2026

October 13, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a crisp, partly cloudy Tuesday at Finger Lakes — 76°F with good visibility and a dirt track that should be playing fair. Nine races are on the slate today, all on the main dirt oval, ranging from a five-and-a-half furlong sprint to a route at a mile and 70 yards. This is a full workday card with something for every level of bettor.

The mix of allowance company, claiming battles, and a maiden event gives us a nice range of pace scenarios and class questions to untangle. With conditions as close to ideal as you'll get in upstate New York in mid-October, speed figures should translate cleanly — which makes today's card a solid one to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse here — TrackWiz ratings flip the script, making this allowance mile a battle between a public underlay and a couple of legitimate contenders with overlapping speed figures.

win1Resilient HeroML 5/2

Resilient Hero draws the rail in this one-mile allowance and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81, a meaningful gap over the next rival. Kevin Navarro gets the call for trainer Jose M. Jimenez, and the 5/2 morning line makes this horse the second choice despite owning the top rating — that's a subtle edge. The career win percentage of 5% is low on paper, but in an allowance field at this level, raw rating superiority often tells the truer story. At a mile on dirt, Resilient Hero has the profile to settle, conserve energy, and fire late.

place2MaturationML 6/1

Maturation comes in at 6/1 on the morning line but sports a 30% career win rate — the highest in this field by a wide margin — which is the kind of number that demands attention at a price. Steven Fret takes the mount for trainer Luis Gutierrez, and a horse that wins nearly a third of its starts shouldn't be drifting this far on the line. An 82.06 TrackWiz rating puts Maturation solidly in the mix, and at 6/1, the place price should be robust enough to make this a strong exotic inclusion.

show5Stop the SpreadML 2/1

Stop the Spread is the morning line favorite at 2/1, which tells you the public sees ability here — but a TrackWiz rating of 74.19 puts this one a tier below our top two picks. Oscar Gomez is a capable pilot and trainer Rachel Sells keeps horses fit, so this isn't a throwout. For show and exacta/trifecta purposes, Stop the Spread offers the kind of reliability a morning line chalk provides, making it a logical underneath piece even if we don't love it on top.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong claiming sprint where the two highest-rated horses are both sitting above 80 on the TrackWiz scale but neither is the morning line favorite — classic overlay territory in a field that rewards doing your homework.

win3Grand Lady IndyML 6/1

Grand Lady Indy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and our model is exactly the kind of value angle worth targeting. Keiber J. Coa gets aboard for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, and the horse posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 54. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, early pace matters, and Grand Lady Indy's speed profile suggests she can press or set fractions and still have something left for the stretch drive.

place7Diva BankerML 7/2

Diva Banker sits just behind our top pick at 81.40 on the TrackWiz scale, and with an average speed of 54, she matches Grand Lady Indy stride for stride in raw quickness. Michael A. Davila Jr. has the call for trainer David Oyola, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company shows consistent competitiveness. At 7/2 on the morning line, Diva Banker is the public's top pick — she'll need to be beat, and she's a natural underneath horse in the exotics.

show5TekilaML 5/2

Tekila is the morning line favorite at 5/2, and the 74.76 TrackWiz rating combined with a 54 average speed makes her legitimately fast enough to fire. Joel Cruz rides for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, and a 13% career win rate keeps this one honest. She likely sets or pressures the early pace in a six-furlong sprint, which means she's a factor throughout — show bettors and trifecta players should have no problem including Tekila in the bottom slot.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming race with a clear class standout at the top of the ratings — but a pair of legitimate horses lurk underneath, making the exacta and trifecta worth constructing carefully.

win2SpettroML 9/5

Spettro is the standout here, carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — while posting a 25% career win rate that screams consistency. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the mount for trainer Charlton Baker, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the public's agreement. The average speed of 52 is right in line with the pace of this field, suggesting Spettro won't be overextending early. At a mile on dirt, a horse with a 25% strike rate and top-of-field numbers is rarely a bad bet to take straight.

place5Coach BaheML 7/2

Coach Bahe offers a compelling secondary angle with the field's highest average speed at 53 and an 84.62 TrackWiz rating that puts this one firmly in contention. Kevin Navarro handles the mount for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, a pairing that figures to have this horse running somewhere near the front. A 20% career win rate is strong for claiming company, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Coach Bahe is a natural exacta partner with Spettro — the value in the exacta could be real.

show6FinalistML 5/1

Finalist rounds out our top three with a 75.95 TrackWiz rating and a solid 17% career win percentage, giving this one legitimate claims to a piece of the purse. Emanuel De Diego rides for trainer Nirka Huertas, and an average speed of 52 matches the field's midrange pace profile. For trifecta players, Finalist provides a sensible and reasonably priced show option — at 5/1 on the morning line, the return on a show ticket here carries some upside.

Our three free selections today span the early part of the card and give you a real taste of what Finger Lakes is serving up. Resilient Hero opens things in Race 1 — an allowance mile that should attract the classiest horses of the afternoon's first act. Over in Race 2, Grand Lady Indy catches our eye as a potential value play at 6/1 on the morning line, which is exactly the kind of price worth exploring in a six-furlong claiming sprint. Then Race 3 brings us Spettro, the most intriguing free pick of the bunch — a morning-line favorite at 9/5 who carries our highest TrackWiz rating of the free races at 88.83.

All three races are on a dirt surface that figures to be consistent throughout the afternoon. If there's any pace bias developing early, it'll show up in these races first — so pay attention to how things unfold out of the gate in Races 1 and 2 before you finalize your tickets for Race 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming action at 5½ furlongs with a field of winless horses — these are tricky to read, but TrackWiz ratings show a clear top two separated from the rest of a wide-open bottom half.

win3Solo StreetML 7/2

Solo Street leads our analysis with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a clear margin over the field in a race where maiden claimers often cluster tightly. Kevin Navarro rides for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, a barn that has shown the ability to prepare short-distance types for dirt sprints. The average speed of 53 is tied for the field's best alongside a few rivals, but the rating separation is the differentiator here. At 7/2 on the morning line, Solo Street offers fair value for a maiden claiming leader — this is our best bet in the race.

place4Keep 'Em HonestML 5/2

Keep 'Em Honest is the morning line second choice at 5/2, and Keiber J. Coa is a strong jockey booking for trainer Tamara Housel. The 68.09 TrackWiz rating trails Solo Street by a meaningful margin, but the average speed of 53 keeps this one in the competitive mix at 5½ furlongs where early zip matters. In maidens, the second-best-rated horse at a fair morning line price is often your safest place bet — Keep 'Em Honest fits that profile cleanly.

show8Jamaica ReddML 4/1

Jamaica Redd enters at 4/1 on the morning line with a 66.26 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 52 — slightly below the top two but well within range of a maiden sprint where the margins can be tight. Steven Fret takes the mount for trainer Katlynn Gutterson, and this combination has competitive experience to draw on. As a show play or trifecta deeper piece, Jamaica Redd makes sense — the 4/1 price means the show return should be palatable even in a race where the top picks run straight.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming sprint at six furlongs that pits the clear top-rated horse against a legitimate group of closers and pace-pressers — the win looks straightforward on paper, but the exacta construction is where the real value hides.

win1ShellacML 5/2

Shellac comes in at the top of our ratings with an 87.81 TrackWiz score — a number that stands well above most of this claiming field. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, and a 15% career win rate in this company is respectable. The average speed figure of 53 is solid for six furlongs, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Shellac is a fair price for a horse that checks the most important boxes. When ratings and speed align at a fair price, the play is straightforward — Shellac is our top selection.

place9Bad JokeML 4/1

Bad Joke is the most interesting horse underneath, posting the field's highest average speed at 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 75.98 — good enough to threaten in this company. Keiber J. Coa gets the mount for trainer Jon G. Arnett, and a 16% career win rate shows consistent ability to compete for purse money. At 4/1 on the morning line, Bad Joke's raw pace numbers suggest this horse could pressure the front and be very tough to pass late — the place price should offer real value.

show8King PhoenixML 6/1

King Phoenix comes in at 6/1 with a 75.74 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed — this horse is right in the conversation for a piece. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call for trainer Chris J. Englehart, and a 16% career win rate mirrors the confidence level of our place pick. In a nine-horse claiming sprint where speed figures cluster near the top, King Phoenix has enough upside to hit the board — a worthwhile show ticket and a logical third wheel in trifecta exotics.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Going a mile and 70 yards in a claiming field where the top-rated horse is a clear standout — but the second-highest rating belongs to a horse at 6/1, creating a potentially juicy exacta if you can land both ends.

win1Ducky MedwickML 5/2

Ducky Medwick pops up with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and the top average speed at 54 — a dominant combination in a field with some clear weaknesses. Oscar Gomez rides for trainer Linda Rice, a respected conditioner at this level, and an 11% career win rate is consistent for a horse running at this claiming level. At 5/2 on the morning line, Ducky Medwick appears to be the right horse at a manageable price — the distance of a mile and 70 yards slightly favors horses that can rate early and finish, which fits this profile.

place9One MorerepML 6/1

One Morerep sneaks into the conversation with an 82.12 TrackWiz rating that trails only the top pick — making this a legitimate second-best in the field despite a 6/1 morning line that suggests the public isn't fully on board. Joel Cruz has the mount for trainer Rafael Jose Rohena, and while a 5% career win rate is low, TrackWiz ratings are forward-looking based on overall ability profiles, not just past victories. The overlay at 6/1 combined with a strong rating makes One Morerep the most attractive place bet on the card in terms of risk-reward — plug this one deep in your exactas.

show5Beck's DreamerML 8/1

Beck's Dreamer checks in at 8/1 on the morning line with a 75.12 TrackWiz rating — a horse that's outperforming its public price in the model. Emanuel De Diego rides for trainer James S. Acquilano, and while an 8% career win rate isn't flashy, the average speed of 51 and solid rating suggest this one is competitive enough to sneak into the top three. At 8/1, the show price on Beck's Dreamer could pay nicely, and trifecta players should absolutely include this one in the third slot.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sharp five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint with two clearly rated horses separated from the pack — but Coin Jar brings a 35% career win rate that demands respect, setting up a potential pace battle at the front.

win1Doc AdvantageML 4/1

Doc Advantage leads our ratings at 85.62 and draws the inside post — always a useful position in a short sprint where real estate off the break matters. Jeremias Flores rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and a 20% career win rate is excellent for claiming company. The average speed of 55 matches the field's best, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here — Doc Advantage's rating gap over the field suggests this one is running at the right level to dominate. Our top pick in Race 7.

place4The InstituteML 5/2

The Institute comes in second on our ratings scale at 78.72 with an average speed of 55 — matching Doc Advantage stride for stride in pace numbers. Luis E. Perez gets the call for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, a trainer who does solid work at this level, and the 20% career win rate is identical to our top pick's. At 5/2 on the morning line, The Institute is the morning favorite and will be tough to keep off the board — the place ticket at this price may not be spectacular, but it's a reliable underlier in trifecta constructions.

show5Coin JarML 3/1

Coin Jar brings something the other top picks don't — a 35% career win rate that's the highest in this field and puts this horse in rarefied reliability territory. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, a sharp combination at Finger Lakes, and the average speed of 54 keeps Coin Jar competitive at five and a half furlongs. At 3/1 on the morning line, the show price may be short, but for exacta players building underneath the win pick, Coin Jar is a natural — a horse that wins more than a third of its races rarely needs much coaxing to find the board.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint where the highest-rated horse is sitting at 3/1 — fair value for a legit standout — but a pair of mid-teens rivals with strong win percentages make this more competitive than the ratings gap implies.

win7Squire CreekML 3/1

Squire Creek posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the best in this allowance optional claiming field — and brings an average speed of 55 that ties for the top mark alongside several rivals. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Amy Albright, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a prime example of a correctly priced top selection. The 13% career win rate in what is typically tougher allowance company is noteworthy — this horse has competed at a level that earns that rating. Squire Creek is our Race 8 best bet.

place2Capt Jax ParrowML 5/1

Capt Jax Parrow makes a compelling case underneath with a 79.76 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate — the second-highest win percentage in this field. Nazario Alvarado rides for trainer Luis Gutierrez, and an average speed of 55 means this horse can match the pace of the field's fastest movers. At 5/1 on the morning line, the place price on Capt Jax Parrow could be generous — a 23% career winner at an overlay price is exactly the kind of secondary pick that makes exactas profitable over time.

show1Scoot DaddyML 7/2

Scoot Daddy enters at 7/2 on the morning line and brings a strong 21% career win rate alongside a 72.17 TrackWiz rating — a horse that knows how to finish in the money. Kevin Navarro gets the call for trainer Dana Saul, and an average speed of 54 fits comfortably in this allowance field's pace context. For trifecta players, Scoot Daddy is a natural third-place piece — experienced, competitive, and piloted by a capable rider who can place this horse where it needs to be in a six-furlong sprint.

Race 9

8:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale is a six-furlong claiming closer with a dominant top-rated horse that the TrackWiz model is firmly behind — but a 27% career winner lurking at 6/1 and a field full of capable closers mean the exotics could pay very well.

win7Peggy RulesML 5/2

Peggy Rules sits atop our ratings at 87.81 — tied for the highest single-race TrackWiz score on today's card — and comes in at a very fair 5/2 on the morning line. Keiber J. Coa gets the mount for trainer Jon G. Arnett, and a 13% career win rate in claiming sprints is respectable. The 54 average speed is the highest in this nine-horse field, which matters enormously in a six-furlong dirt sprint where early position sets up everything. Peggy Rules is our strongest win-position play of the closing sequence.

place2My Royal VowML 4/1

My Royal Vow checks in at 4/1 on the morning line with a 67.33 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate — solid credentials for a place contender in this spot. Oscar Gomez rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and the average speed of 53 positions this horse as a mid-pack threat that can sit off the pace and fire when the leaders come back. At 4/1, My Royal Vow's place price should be competitive — this is the kind of horse you want in your exactas paired with the top pick.

show6CabernetML 6/1

Cabernet brings a 27% career win rate — the highest in this field and one of the more eye-catching numbers on the day's card — alongside a 60.95 TrackWiz rating. Joel Cruz has the mount for trainer Ilmar Loaiza, and while the rating trails the top picks, a horse that wins more than one in four starts rarely needs much to find the board. At 6/1 on the morning line, Cabernet represents solid show value and a logical trifecta inclusion — a high-percentage winner who could sneak into the money if the top two battle each other into submission.

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is putting on a solid nine-race card under near-perfect fall conditions. Spettro is the name to know from the free selections, but the real meat of the card is in those premium races. If you want pace projections, exotic strategies, and full-field ratings, the complete TrackWiz breakdown is waiting for you — head to /pricing to unlock it. Good luck out there today.

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