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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — October 14, 2026

October 14, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Finger Lakes is running an 8-race Wednesday card on October 14, and the conditions are about as classic upstate New York autumn as it gets — cloudy skies, 63°F, and a dirt surface that should be playing fair. No rain in the mix today, so expect a consistent track that rewards horses with legitimate ability rather than surface specialists looking for an edge in the slop.

The card is a nice mix of Claiming races, a pair of Maiden Special Weight events, and a Starter Optional Claiming in Race 7 — plenty of angles to dig into across the board. TrackWiz ratings are tight at the top of several fields, which tells us we're dealing with genuinely competitive races where the pace scenario and class profile are going to matter more than usual. Stay sharp.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-two in this mile claimer with Mayheminthepalace and It's Not Over Yet separating from the field on ratings, but Rock Star Rebel lurks at a competitive morning line and could make this a genuine three-horse affair.

win2MayheminthepalaceML 5/2

Mayheminthepalace draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — a meaningful gap over the second-ranked horse — and pairs that with a 19% career win rate that stands as the best among the contenders. Oscar Gomez gets the call and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees this is the one to beat. At a flat mile on dirt, the average speed figure of 55 is the highest in the field, giving this horse a clear edge in the numbers game. Hard to make a case against the top-rated horse going a route of ground in a claiming field like this.

place3It's Not Over YetML 7/2

It's Not Over Yet checks in as our place pick with an 80.0 rating and an 18% career win clip — both solid marks for this level. Trainer Lisa A. Reed puts Andre Shivnarine Worrie up, a combination worth tracking at Finger Lakes. The 7/2 morning line offers some cushion on the board, and if Mayheminthepalace gets pressured on the front end, this one could be sitting in a perfect stalker's spot to swoop late.

show5Rock Star RebelML 3/1

Rock Star Rebel opens at 3/1, which makes this a legitimate contender rather than a pure show hedge. The 79.14 TrackWiz rating is solid and trainer Michael S. Ferraro keeps Luis E. Perez in the irons. With an average speed figure of 52 — tied with Prophetic — Rock Star Rebel should be competitive at the wire, making a show ticket reasonable insurance in any superfecta or trifecta construction.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight at a mile where every horse is winless, but Avery County carries a massive ratings edge and a live morning line that suggests this race might not be as mysterious as maiden fields tend to be.

win5Avery CountyML 5/2

Avery County tops this maiden field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the same elite mark we see from some of today's top horses card-wide — and trainer Jon G. Arnett sends out Keiber J. Coa, one of the sharper riders on the grounds. The 5/2 morning line is fair but not overly short, meaning there's still some value attached to the top number in a maiden field. An average speed figure of 53 ties three others, but the overall rating profile suggests Avery County has done more with those fractions than the competition.

place1Scarlett QueenML 6/1

Scarlett Queen is our place play at 6/1 and carries the second-highest rating in the field at 66.89 despite that generous morning line. Trainer John A. Grabowski sends her out with Luis Pena aboard, and in a maiden field with no standout pace scenario, Scarlett Queen's speed figure of 53 keeps her right in the mix. The value angle here is real — if Avery County gets beat for any reason, Scarlett Queen looks like the most likely alternative.

show4Little FinchML 7/2

Little Finch at 7/2 is our show selection with a 55.83 rating and a matching 53 average speed figure. Trainer H. James Bond hands the reins to Reylu Gutierrez, a rider who knows how to get horses into position over a route. In a field of maiden runners where pace can collapse and closers can steal late, Little Finch is worth including in exacta boxes and trifecta keys behind the top two.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Constant Chaos looks like the class of this six-furlong dirt claiming race and should be favored, but Im Gunna at 8/1 represents a sneaky pace-setup horse that could pop at a price if the chalk gets caught flat-footed.

win6Constant ChaosML 8/5

Constant Chaos opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and backs that status up with an 86.96 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field — plus a 12% career win rate that doubles up most of the competition here. Joel Cruz rides for the reliable Jonathan B. Buckley barn, a trainer-jockey combination worth respecting in claiming company at Finger Lakes. The average speed figure of 54 leads the field outright, and in a six-furlong sprint where early fractions matter, that raw number looms large.

place1Im GunnaML 8/1

Im Gunna is our place pick and the most interesting number on the board at 8/1 morning line despite carrying a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — the second-best figure in the race. Trainer Troy Smith sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie, and a 3% career win rate may look alarming on the surface, but the rating says this horse has been closer to winning than that number suggests. If the pace scenario gets honest with Constant Chaos pressing, Im Gunna could find room to run late and at least hit the board.

show5Montauk MemoirsML 2/1

Montauk Memoirs opens at 2/1 and holds the third-highest rating at 78.82, making this a logical show option that also could outrun expectations. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has Jeremias Flores up, and a 6% career win rate in combination with a 53 speed figure keeps Montauk Memoirs in contention at the top of the sprint. Including this horse in the show spot of a trifecta behind Constant Chaos and Im Gunna gives you solid coverage.

The first three races on the card are unlocked for everyone today, and they give us a solid early read on how this card shapes up. Mayheminthepalace opens the day in Race 1 at a mile — a 5/2 morning line with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that puts her clear of the field in our model. Race 2 brings the Maiden Special Weight crowd to the same one-mile distance, where Avery County carries an identical rating and the same 5/2 ticket price — value is right there on the board if the tote cooperates. Constant Chaos closes out the free portion in Race 3's 6-furlong Claiming sprint with an 8/5 morning line and an 86.96 rating, projecting as the class of that field.

A recurring theme through these first three: all three top picks are on the dirt at short-to-fair odds, and all three carry TrackWiz ratings in the high 80s. That kind of consistency across the free races suggests a card where our model has good separation at the top — which is exactly when your best bets feel like best bets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are rated within five points of each other at the top of this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, setting up a competitive trifecta race where picking the order matters more than picking the winner.

win5I Got No MunnyML 3/1

I Got No Munny tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in this sprint and backs it up with the highest average speed figure in the field at 56 — a full point clear of the next-best horses. Luis E. Perez gets the mount for trainer Jon G. Arnett, a connection that appears twice on today's card and clearly trusts their speed horses. At 3/1, this isn't a throwaway price given the ratings edge, and in a five-and-a-half-furlong dash where pure quickness matters, the speed figure advantage could be decisive.

place1MitwajidML 5/2

Mitwajid at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite and posts a 86.01 rating — barely a point behind our win pick — so the gap between first and second in our analysis is razor-thin. What stands out is a 27% career win rate, easily the highest of any horse in this race, which tells you this horse knows how to finish. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro hands the reins to Keiber J. Coa, and with an average speed figure of 55 matching Stormin Sammy, Mitwajid is wired to hit the board.

show3Stormin SammyML 7/2

Stormin Sammy rounds out the top three with an 82.15 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win clip that shows genuine form. Trainer Rachel Sells has been busy on this card and sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie for a 7/2 price that makes Stormin Sammy a legitimate live show ticket. In a field where the top three horses are bunched tightly in the ratings, the show spot could easily go to any of them — but Stormin Sammy's combination of win percentage and speed figure keeps the barn in the picture.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The largest field on the card at twelve horses makes this 5½-furlong claiming sprint chaotic, but Breaking Stones clearly separates on the TrackWiz model despite opening at a generous 5/1 morning line.

win1Breaking StonesML 5/1

Breaking Stones carries an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in a sprawling twelve-horse field — and a 14% career win rate that's respectable in this company. Trainer Paul W. Barrow keeps Jeremias Flores in the saddle, and an average speed figure of 54 puts this horse right at the top of the sprint number department. The 5/1 morning line is frankly generous given the ratings advantage, and in a big field where pace can get messy, having a horse with the top figure and the top model score is exactly the kind of edge worth attacking.

place4Morning CupML 7/2

Morning Cup opens at 7/2 with a 71.92 rating and the best average speed figure among the mid-tier horses at 55 — actually the highest speed number in the field. Trainer Jon G. Arnett puts Keiber J. Coa up, a sharp combination on this card. A 17% career win rate in a chaotic twelve-horse field gives Morning Cup legitimate board credentials, and the speed figure makes this horse dangerous early in a sprint where getting out clean from post 4 could be a real asset.

show10Uncle GeorgeML 4/1

Uncle George at 4/1 is the third piece of the puzzle with a 62.28 rating and a 16% career win rate from trainer Chris J. Englehart's barn. J. M. Rohena rides, and while the average speed figure of 52 is a tick below the leaders, in a twelve-horse field with significant chaos at the break, a steady and experienced runner can steal a show spot. The morning line feels fair for what Uncle George offers in this spot.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden six-furlong sprint where the top of the market is compressed between 7/5 and 2/1, but Words of War at double-digit odds offers a quiet pace-scenario angle worth a small stab for longshot hunters.

win2Cozzy TrickstressML 7/5

Cozzy Trickstress is the 7/5 morning-line favorite and leads all runners with a 59.33 TrackWiz rating in a field where the scores are tightly bunched. Trainer Paul W. Barrow puts Andre Shivnarine Worrie aboard — a combination appearing multiple times today — and an average speed figure of 54 matches Autumn Fire for the field's best mark. In maiden company at six furlongs, having the top rating and the top speed figure is usually enough of an edge to trust, even at a short price.

place5Autumn FireML 2/1

Autumn Fire opens at 2/1 and sits just a point behind Cozzy Trickstress in the ratings at 58.33 — this race truly comes down to those two at the top. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro has two horses entered today, and Chris Russell takes the call on this one. Matching the 54 average speed figure of the favorite makes Autumn Fire a natural place selection, and in a six-furlong maiden sprint, a horse that can match the leader stride for stride into the far turn is always dangerous to beat on the board.

show3Words of WarML 10/1

Words of War at 10/1 is our show selection and arguably the most interesting dart-throw in this race. Trainer Luis Gutierrez sends out Reylu Gutierrez — a jockey well-acquainted with Finger Lakes dirt — and the 45.0 TrackWiz rating puts this horse in a competitive mid-range tier. The show spot in a six-horse maiden field is very reachable if the pace scenario plays into a closer's hands, and at double-digit odds, even a small show ticket on Words of War returns meaningful value.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Timely Reward headlines this six-furlong Starter Optional Claiming affair with the top model rating and a live jockey-trainer combo, but Miss Stones carries a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate that demands attention regardless of the odds.

win1Timely RewardML 5/2

Timely Reward opens at 5/2 with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest single-race figure we've seen on today's entire card — and a 19% career win rate that confirms this horse runs in the money regularly. Trainer Ilmar Loaiza hands the mount to Luis E. Perez, and an average speed figure of 55 gives Timely Reward raw sprint power to go with the top model score. At six furlongs in a Starter Optional Claiming race, this is exactly the kind of horse you build your ticket around.

place4Miss StonesML 3/1

Miss Stones at 3/1 may be the most fascinating horse on the entire card today — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and suggests this mare simply knows how to win races. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has Oscar Gomez in the irons, and while the 77.18 TrackWiz rating trails Timely Reward by over ten points, a horse that wins half its starts demands respect at any price. The place spot feels almost conservative for a runner with this kind of win percentage.

show5Lady SerenityML 2/1

Lady Serenity opens as the 2/1 second choice but falls to our show position based on the ratings, posting a 66.04 TrackWiz score and a 20% career win rate. Trainer Chris J. Englehart sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie — one of the busier riders on today's card — and a 55 average speed figure ties Timely Reward and Open Soul Autism for the best sprint numbers in the race. Lady Serenity profiles as a horse capable of closing ground late if the leaders press each other, making the show slot a smart hedge.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The final race of the night is a competitive mile claimer with a legitimate top selection in Tahila, but the deeper field offers trifecta opportunities with Back to Khali sitting at 6/1 and holding a respectable rating.

win2TahilaML 3/1

Tahila leads this eight-horse mile field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws trainer Dana Saul, who puts Jose Baez up for the nightcap. A 3/1 morning line feels right for the top-rated horse, and an average speed figure of 53 positions Tahila in the heart of the field's speed range. The 5% career win rate is modest, but rating models are designed to spot horses trending better than their raw win percentage suggests — and Tahila fits that profile here.

place4Big JackieML 4/1

Big Jackie at 4/1 is a strong place contender with an 80.79 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro gets Luis E. Perez — a productive rider on this card — and an average speed figure of 53 matches Tahila's number. A four-pound gap in the ratings between first and second is enough to feel confident about the ordering, but Big Jackie clearly has the tools to hit the board in a mile claimer and should be included in all exotics.

show3Back to KhaliML 6/1

Back to Khali slots in as our show pick at a generous 6/1 morning line, holding a 66.82 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse solidly in the second tier of this field. Trainer Chris J. Englehart has J. M. Rohena up, and a 9% career win rate with an average speed figure of 54 — the highest in the race — suggests this horse can keep up with early fractions over a mile. The speed figure advantage is notable: if the pace gets honest and the front-runners tire, Back to Khali is the kind of closer who might run into the show spot at a price worth having.

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Bottom line: Mayheminthepalace, Avery County, and Constant Chaos are the free-play trio carrying the most weight in our model today, and all three offer fair-to-attractive morning line prices. The premium side of the card features compelling pace setups and at least one longshot angle worth building tickets around. Full analysis — including pace projections, exotic strategies, and every race from 1 through 8 — is waiting for subscribers. Go premium and get the complete picture before first post.

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