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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — October 12, 2026

October 12, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Finger Lakes is open for business on a cool, cloudy Monday — 66°F and overcast, the kind of fall afternoon that keeps the track honest and the speed figures clean. Nine races are on the slate, all on the main dirt surface, and the card has some real teeth to it.

Three Stakes races dot the program — Races 4, 7, and 8 — giving horseplayers plenty of ammunition for exotics and multi-race wagers. Add in a pair of Allowance spots and a Starter Allowance opener, and you've got a well-rounded card that rewards both the casual fan and the serious handicapper.

TrackWiz has rated every horse in every race. Below you'll find our top picks for all nine, with full breakdowns available to subscribers for Races 4 through 9.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A starter allowance going long at 1 1/8 miles sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, with a clear TrackWiz ratings gap separating the contenders from the field fillers.

win7Raw CourageML 5/2

Raw Courage tops our ratings at 87.81 and draws post 7 at a fair 5/2 morning line — good value for a horse this strong on paper. Trainer Aadil S. Khan has Raw Courage showing an average speed figure of 52, matching the top of the field, and the 1 1/8-mile test over dirt should suit a horse whose profile screams stamina at this starter level. J.M. Rohena gets the call and this looks like a confident booking for a well-spotted runner. The rating advantage over the rest of this field is the headline — trust the number here.

place6So SpiritedML 6/1

So Spirited brings the most compelling win percentage in the race at 27%, and her TrackWiz rating of 82.71 slots her in comfortably as the second-best figure in the field. Trainer Linda K. Dixon puts Jacqueline Davis in the irons, and an average speed of 52 keeps her right in the mix for the long run at 1 1/8 miles. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's a juicy exotics inclusion if Raw Courage controls things up front.

show2Ice TimeML 3/1

Ice Time checks in with a 74.92 rating and gets trainer Chris Englehart — a name to respect at this level — with Andre Shivnarine Worrie aboard. The 3/1 morning line makes Ice Time one of the public's choices, and an average speed of 52 matches the top figures in the field. In a race where the top two finishers seem fairly clear, Ice Time rounds out the superfecta nicely as a reliable third-place threat.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-furlong dirt claimer with a pronounced speed figure edge at the top — one horse's rating stands well clear of the pack, making this look like a single with upside in the exotics.

win5Probably FlatteryML 3/1

Probably Flattery is the standout here with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — nearly 27 points clear of the next-best horse — and an average speed of 54, highest in the field. Keiber J. Coa takes the mount for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, and that's a barn that clearly knows this horse well given they're also running Kismeholdmethrlme in the same race. A 3/1 morning line on a horse this dominant in the ratings feels workable — this is our strongest win play of the early card.

place2KismeholdmethrlmeML 2/1

Kismeholdmethrlme is the second-highest-rated horse in the race at 60.37, posting the best average speed in the field at 55 — a tick above even our top pick. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro runs two horses here, which suggests confidence in the barn's overall form. At 2/1 on the morning line, the value isn't dramatic, but as a place play in exotics alongside Probably Flattery, this is a natural pairing.

show6First PitchML 7/2

First Pitch comes in at a 52.7 rating with Reylu Gutierrez up for trainer Jose Jimenez, sitting at 7/2 on the morning line. The average speed of 51 is on the lower end, but in a six-furlong sprint, pace dynamics can shuffle things around quickly. First Pitch is a solid show-ticket hedge and a decent exacta/trifecta bottom in a race where the top two seem clear.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile that looks like a two-horse race on the figures, but watch out — the morning-line favorite by the public comes in with a lower TrackWiz rating than our top pick, creating a potential overlay situation.

win4Gray Haired GusML 7/2

Gray Haired Gus tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and goes postward at a generous 7/2 morning line while the public leans on Hey Pal at 2/1. Kevin Navarro gets the mount for trainer Jonathan Buckley, and with an average speed of 53 matching the top of the field, Gus has the figures to back up the rating. The one-mile distance on dirt is a real test, but this profile looks like a legitimate overlay — bet the number, not the morning line.

place6Hey PalML 2/1

Hey Pal is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 80.53 rating, giving Keiber Coa a live chance for M. Anthony Ferraro's barn. The average speed of 52 is competitive but sits a notch below Gray Haired Gus, which is why we slot Hey Pal in the place hole rather than the win column. In a contentious mile, fading Hey Pal entirely would be a mistake — use underneath in exactas.

show2AlmezML 6/1

Almez catches the eye at 6/1 morning line with a 62.99 TrackWiz rating for trainer Michael Ferraro and jockey Sofia Vives. A career win percentage of 18% tells you this horse can hit the board regularly, and at that price, Almez is a live show bet and a solid trifecta fill. The distance of one mile on dirt suits horses that can rate and run, and Almez fits that profile.

Our three free races — the Starter Allowance opener at a mile and an eighth (Race 1), a six-furlong Claiming sprint (Race 2), and a one-mile Allowance (Race 3) — all land on the dirt, so pace scenario and early position are going to matter all day. Raw Courage tops our ratings at 87.81 in Race 1, and that extended 1 1/8-mile trip sets up nicely for a closer if the speed gets loose on the front end. Keep an eye on how the early pace plays out there — it'll tell you a lot about what the strip is doing.

In Race 2, Probably Flattery comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — solid number for a Claiming field at six furlongs. Race 3 gives us Gray Haired Gus at 7/2, the top-rated horse in an Allowance mile. All three offer genuine value rather than just chalk. Dig into the full free analyses below before you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse stakes sprint at six furlongs features a heavy morning-line favorite whose TrackWiz rating is in a class of its own — this looks like a prime single for multi-race wagers.

win3D I WireML 4/5

D I Wire comes in as the overwhelming 4/5 morning-line favorite and backs it up with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest figure on today's card. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Kelly Breen, a sharp pairing that adds confidence. The 66% career win percentage is elite by any measure, and an average speed of 55 is the best in this stakes field. Yes, 4/5 is short, but in a five-horse field with this much separation, D I Wire is the clear single.

place1Big PoppyML 4/1

Big Poppy has a legitimate 50% career win rate — impressive no matter the level — and draws post 1 at 4/1 for M. Anthony Ferraro with Luis Perez in the irons. The TrackWiz rating of 55.0 is a distant second to D I Wire, but in a small field, second-best can certainly hit the board. Use Big Poppy under D I Wire in exactas for a reasonable payout.

show5Pwr of PersistenceML 8/1

Pwr of Persistence comes in at 8/1 on the morning line with a 50% career win rate, which stands out on paper even if the TrackWiz rating of 48.33 is a step below the top. Trainer Paul Barrow has Andre Shivnarine Worrie aboard, and in a short field of five, every horse has a mathematical shot at hitting the board. This is a dart throw in the trifecta for those chasing a score behind D I Wire.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance at 5 1/2 furlongs sets up as a sprint showdown with two horses bunched at the top of the ratings and a potential pace battle that could set up a closer.

win5Cajun HottieML 5/2

Cajun Hottie leads our ratings at 87.81 and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56 — a meaningful edge in a sprint where raw pace matters most. Keiber Coa takes the mount for trainer Jon Arnett, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair without being a giveaway. A career win rate of 18% is solid, and the combination of top speed and top rating makes this a confident top selection in a wide-open sprint.

place6Three Nines FineML 3/1

Three Nines Fine is right on Cajun Hottie's heels with an 85.78 rating, just two points back, and Kevin Navarro rides for Jonathan Buckley — a reliable local combo. The morning line of 3/1 is attractive given how close the figures are to the top pick. If the pace gets hot early and Cajun Hottie overextends, Three Nines Fine is exactly the type to swoop late and grab the place.

show1BelloroML 9/2

Belloro brings an 80.98 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate for Jeremiah Englehart, with Andre Shivnarine Worrie up at 9/2. The average speed of 54 matches the middle of the pack, and in a seven-horse sprint where things can get congested, a horse with Belloro's profile can pick up pieces late. Good show-ticket value and worth including in trifectas at that price.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance at six furlongs where two horses are clustered at the top of the ratings but neither holds a dominant advantage — this race could go to the horse that gets the best trip.

win7Hamilton's ReasonML 5/1

Hamilton's Reason tops our ratings at 84.17 and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — that's solid value for the top-rated horse in any race. Chris Russell gets the call for trainer Debra Breed, and an average speed of 54 keeps Hamilton's Reason competitive in a field where no one is running away with the figures. A career win rate of 11% is modest, but the rating says this horse has been running against tougher; today's spot looks like a good fit.

place5Kings DancerML 7/2

Kings Dancer slots in at 83.11 on the TrackWiz scale — just a point behind our top pick — and figures to be competitive throughout. Trainer Linda Dixon sends out Kings Dancer with Nazario Alvarado in the irons at 7/2 on the morning line. The 9% career win rate is low, but the average speed of 54 and strong overall rating suggest this horse runs well without always finishing first — exactly the type to land on the board.

show6Connect and CruiseML 8/1

Connect and Cruise at 8/1 morning line is the value play in this field with a 33% career win rate — by far the best win percentage in the race. Andre Shivnarine Worrie rides for Paul Barrow, and while the 68.6 rating is a step below the top two, a horse that wins at a 33% clip finds ways to compete. At 8/1, this is a live longshot show bet and a worthy trifecta inclusion.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A stakes mile and a sixteenth draws a wide-open field where the figures show a clear top rated horse, but two others with elite win percentages make this an intriguing betting race.

win6IntentiousML 3/1

Intentious leads all runners with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and posts the best average speed in the field at 55. Kevin Navarro rides for Jonathan Buckley — the same trainer also running Ekwanok in this race — and a 29% career win rate puts Intentious in the upper tier of reliability. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a comfortable top choice in what shapes up as the card's most competitive stakes race.

place2Marilyn's Ny PrideML 5/1

Marilyn's Ny Pride carries a 60% career win rate — the standout number in this field — and an average speed of 54 makes her fully competitive on the figures. Oscar Gomez rides for Richard Shaffer at 5/1 on the morning line, and that price looks fair given the win rate. If Intentious gets the job done up front, Marilyn's Ny Pride is the most natural place horse in the field.

show4EkwanokML 5/1

Ekwanok checks in at 64.54 on our ratings and brings a 29% career win percentage to match stablemate Intentious's credentials. Joel Cruz rides for Jonathan Buckley, meaning the barn has two horses in this race — and Ekwanok is the likely pace-compliant option that benefits if the race gets fast early. At 5/1 morning line, there's show value here and trifecta utility as the third wheel behind our top two.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

An eight-horse stakes at 1 1/16 miles brings a chaotic mix of high win percentages and widely scattered ratings — the top-rated horse is a legitimate standout, but a longshot lurks in the middle of the field.

win2ProbabilityML 7/2

Probability leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate, giving trainer Amelia Green and jockey Christopher Elliott a strong profile on paper. The average speed of 53 is competitive for this distance, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is workable for a horse with this much separation at the top of the ratings. In a wide-open stakes field, Probability is the most reliable single on the card for multi-race sequences.

place6Dr. KraftML 3/1

Dr. Kraft rates at 66.63 with an average speed of 54 — the best in the field — and Heman Harkie gets the call for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci at 3/1 morning line. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the raw speed number suggests Dr. Kraft runs hard every time and can compete on pace. Slot this one in the place spot and underneath in exactas behind Probability.

show3Seams Like DestinyML 15/1

Seams Like Destiny is our longshot show play at 15/1 morning line, with a 49.13 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate that outperforms several horses priced lower. Keiber Coa takes the mount for trainer Troy Smith, and in a field this wide open, the win percentage alone makes Seams Like Destiny worth a trifecta dart. At 15/1 on the morning line, any piece of the board here returns real money.

Race 9

8:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The closing race is a seven-horse claiming sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs with three horses tightly bunched at the top of the ratings — the pace scenario here will decide everything.

win7AnmoloML 7/2

Anmolo leads all closers with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and draws post 7 at 7/2 on the morning line, giving Emanuel De Diego a live chance for trainer Nirka Huertas. An average speed of 54 matches the top of the field, and with the best rating in the race by a clear margin over the clustered trio below, Anmolo has the credentials to close this card out in front. At 7/2, this is our best-value top selection of the night.

place3Ride ShareML 3/1

Ride Share sits at 78.51 on the TrackWiz scale — just ahead of the favorite Hard Performer — and Kevin Navarro rides for Jonathan Buckley at 3/1 morning line. A 10% career win rate suggests this horse hits the board more than it wins, making the place spot a natural fit. In a pace-contested sprint, Ride Share's profile says it runs on late and grabs second regularly.

show1Hard PerformerML 9/5

Hard Performer is the 9/5 morning-line favorite with a 78.12 rating and a 9% career win rate — that low win number relative to the tight price is worth noting. Steven Fret rides for Katlynn Gutterson, and an average speed of 53 is competitive but not dominant. Hard Performer figures to be on or near the pace all the way, and in a short five-and-a-half furlong sprint, that style can hold on for third even when outrun late.

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes serves up a legitimate nine-race card today with three Stakes races, a trio of solid free best bets led by Raw Courage, Probably Flattery, and Gray Haired Gus, and a premium card anchored by D I Wire in Race 4. Good luck out there — and remember, even a 90-rated horse has to break from the gate and get a clean trip. Play smart, manage your bankroll, and let the card come to you. Full analysis for all nine races is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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