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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Finger Lakes comes at us with a full 8-race dirt card on Monday, September 28th, and the conditions couldn't be much better for a crisp fall afternoon at the Farmington oval. Partly cloudy skies, 64°F, and a surface that should be playing true — this is the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace scenarios play out the way you draw them up.

The card mixes allowance company, claiming races, and a pair of maiden claiming sprints, which means there's something for every type of bettor — from the pace handicapper grinding the route races to the sprint specialist looking for a quick score. Three of today's races are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers, with our top picks in Races 1 through 3 available right now at no cost.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A trainer double-dip sets up the opener — M. Anthony Ferraro saddles both the top two rated horses, making this allowance sprint a near-perfect one-two punch on paper, though Frostelle's speed profile keeps things honest.

win4White Sport CoatML 5/2

White Sport Coat carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and draws the coveted Keiber J. Coa mount, a jockey who knows how to get horses to the wire in sprint company. Coming in at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse offers reasonable value for a horse with the top number. Ferraro's barn has two horses in here, which speaks to stable confidence, and White Sport Coat is the one they've put their best jockey on.

place3SpeedstreML 4/1

Stablemate Speedstre sits second in the ratings at 79.5 — a meaningful gap below White Sport Coat but well clear of the rest of the field. At 4/1, there's genuine place value here if the Ferraro barn fires with both barrels. Joel Cruz gets the mount and should keep this one in a comfortable spot through six furlongs.

show1Hamilton's ReasonML 5/1

Hamilton's Reason is the most interesting underneath piece at 5/1. The TrackWiz rating of 67.25 is respectable for a show spot, and Chris Russell is a reliable rider in this circuit. With a 12% career win rate, this horse hits the board often enough to earn an exotic slot in trifecta and superfecta plays.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprint with a full field of first-time or winless runners — the form is murky by definition, but Scarlett Queen and All Fun N Games stand well above the rest on ratings, setting up a potential one-two finish.

win3Scarlett QueenML 7/2

Scarlett Queen owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 despite going off at a fair 7/2 morning line — meaning there's a slight overlay opportunity here. Luis Pena picks up the mount for trainer John A. Grabowski, and the horse's profile stacks up cleanly against this maiden claiming field. In a race where every horse is looking for their first win, having the top rating by a comfortable margin is a significant edge.

place1All Fun N GamesML 4/1

All Fun N Games is the second-rated horse in the field at 77.58, and Keiber J. Coa in the irons is a major positive — he's one of the sharper sticks on the Finger Lakes circuit. Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter puts the top jock available on this one, which says something about confidence. At 4/1, this is a legitimate win contender and a near-lock for the exacta.

show4Jayme's TurnML 5/2

Jayme's Turn sneaks into the show spot with a 59.28 rating and the best average speed figure among the top contenders at 55. Trainer Linda Rice is well-respected, and Oscar Gomez is a capable handler. At 5/2, the morning line makes this horse the public's second choice, but our analysis suggests the rating might not fully justify that price — still worth including in exotics.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Pace duel potential in this claiming sprint — Tenacious Child's top avg speed of 56 could gun from the gate, but Good Mission's superior rating and Princess Azara's sneaky 12/1 price create an intriguing betting structure.

win1Good MissionML 3/1

Good Mission heads our selections with an 80.77 TrackWiz rating, the highest in the field, and Jeremias Flores gets the call for Paul W. Barrow's barn. A 3/1 morning line is fair pricing given the rating edge. At six furlongs on the dirt, a horse with this kind of overall profile should be able to track the pace and pounce — Flores is experienced enough to put this one in the right spot.

place6Princess AzaraML 12/1

Princess Azara at 12/1 is the value play of this race card's early going. The 73.96 rating is third-best in the field, and only a 7% career win rate might explain the long price — but in a competitive claiming field, a place finish is very much in range. Trainer Tamara Housel and jockey J. M. Rohena quietly put this one together, and the overlay price makes her a standout in exactas and trifectas.

show5Big JackieML 7/2

Big Jackie rates third in the field at 67.43 for the Michael S. Ferraro barn, giving that trainer two shots in this race. Sofia Vives handles the riding duties. At 7/2, the public clearly respects this horse, and an 11% career win rate suggests consistent effort. As a show hedge, Big Jackie provides solid coverage underneath the top two picks.

Our free card opens strong. White Sport Coat headlines Race 1 — a 6-furlong allowance — with the top TrackWiz rating on the card at 87.81 and a fair 5/2 morning line that leaves room for value if the public leans elsewhere. In Race 2, Scarlett Queen draws our attention in the maiden claiming sprint, posting an 86.35 rating in a wide-open field where a clean trip could be the difference. Race 3 brings another 6-furlong dirt sprint, and Good Mission looks like a solid overlay at 3/1 morning line with an 80.77 rating against a claiming field that appears beatable.

With all three free races going at sprint distances on dirt, keep an eye on early speed. Fall afternoons at Finger Lakes can favor horses that get out clean and control the pace — a theme worth threading through your ticket-building today.

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Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight three-way battle shapes up in this allowance optional claiming mile — Zeebear, Freedsdale, and Seams Like Destiny are separated by fewer than five rating points, and the pace scenario over a route distance makes this one genuinely compelling.

win1ZeebearML 3/1

Zeebear earns the top spot with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate — the latter being a strong indicator of a horse that knows how to finish. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for the M. Anthony Ferraro stable, which has been sharp throughout today's card. At 3/1, the morning line reflects public respect, but given the rating edge and the trainer's activity level today, this looks like a confident sending.

place5FreedsdaleML 7/2

Freedsdale rates at 83.29 with the field's best career win percentage at an impressive 31% — that's a horse that converts when the setup is right. Keiber J. Coa, one of the top riders on the grounds, climbs aboard for Ferraro, making this a barn that's double-loaded in the race. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and a horse that wins nearly a third of its starts doesn't stay off the board often.

show3Seams Like DestinyML 9/5

Seams Like Destiny is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a 23% career win rate and an 82.7 rating — solidly in the mix. Reylu Gutierrez takes the call for Troy Smith's barn. The horse rates just a touch below our top two picks, but in a route race where pace dynamics can shuffle the order, it's wise to keep the chalk in your exotic coverage.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Fast Amendment and Beck's Dreamer dominate the ratings in this nine-horse claiming route, creating a clear top tier that separates from a middle pack loaded with horses that likely can't run with them when the pressure comes.

win7Fast AmendmentML 7/2

Fast Amendment tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and draws J. M. Rohena for the always-active M. Anthony Ferraro barn — Ferraro has been all over this card, which speaks to barn confidence. At 7/2, the price is reasonable for the top-rated horse, and a 5% career win rate shouldn't scare you in a race where the ratings gap is this clear. Route distance at a mile and 70 yards suits stalker types, and this horse has the numbers to sit just off a modest pace and strike.

place6Beck's DreamerML 4/1

Beck's Dreamer is separated from Fast Amendment by just a single rating point at 85.25, making this a genuine co-top horse at 4/1. Michael A. Davila, Jr. rides for trainer James S. Acquilano, and a 9% career win rate is acceptable in this class. The price is slightly more generous than the horse's quality suggests — a place ticket here is among the better values on the afternoon.

show2American HaliteML 9/2

American Halite checks in at 68.2 — a clear third-best rating behind the top pair — and Steven Fret handles the mount for Ilmar Loaiza at 9/2 on the morning line. With the two top-rated horses likely drawing most of the action, American Halite could offer decent show value if the price drifts upward at post time. Worth including in trifecta combinations.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two heavy hitters dominate this maiden claiming sprint — War Runner and Im Gunna both rate above 85 on our model while the rest of the eight-horse field clusters well below, making the race shape feel like a match race with fringe players.

win4War RunnerML 3/1

War Runner sits atop the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws Joel Cruz in the irons for trainer James S. Acquilano, who also sends Maximum Warrior in this spot. Cruz has been busy today and is riding with purpose — getting the top-rated horse in a maiden claimer is a prime opportunity. At 3/1, War Runner is fairly priced given the rating advantage, and six furlongs on the dirt is a sharp distance for this profile.

place7Im GunnaML 4/1

Im Gunna is just a half-point behind at 85.62 and goes at 4/1 for trainer Troy Smith with Andre Shivnarine Worrie aboard. In a field where no horse has won before, having two horses separated by almost nothing at the top creates a natural exacta box situation. Im Gunna's avg speed of 52 is competitive, and at that price, the place spot looks very accessible.

show3Solo StreetML 7/2

Solo Street at 7/2 is the third-rated horse at 59.99 — a notable drop from the top two, but still a full tier above the rest of the field. Kevin Navarro, a reliable circuit rider, takes the mount for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley. In a maiden claimer where chaos is always possible, having the third-best number at a fair price gives your exotic tickets a solid safety net.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Fiery Heart has the numbers to dominate this nine-horse claiming route, but Hey Toby and Mad Magic both bring 20% career win rates and competitive ratings, ensuring there's a real fight in the stretch.

win9Fiery HeartML 7/2

Fiery Heart owns the field's top TrackWiz rating by a healthy margin at 86.35, and the 33% career win rate is the best in the race — this is a horse that has proven it can close the deal when conditions are right. Kevin Navarro gets the call for Jonathan B. Buckley's barn, a solid pairing on this circuit. The 7/2 morning line makes Fiery Heart a fair overlay given those career numbers, and a mile and 70 yards gives a talented horse enough ground to find the race.

place7Hey TobyML 3/1

Hey Toby rates second at 68.38 and shares a 20% career win rate with Mad Magic — but it's Hey Toby that gets the nod for the place spot thanks to a slightly better speed profile at an avg figure of 52. Gregory E. Charlerie sends this one out at 3/1, backed by Reylu Gutierrez in the irons. As the morning-line second choice, this is a horse the public already respects, and the numbers back that up.

show2Mad MagicML 4/1

Mad Magic rounds out the top three at 67.51, matching Hey Toby's 20% career win rate and drawing a quality rider in Luis E. Perez for Michael S. Ferraro. At 4/1, there's a smidge of value here compared to the 3/1 Hey Toby, and using both in the show spot of trifectas gives good coverage behind the clear top pick.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Winston D stands out as a clear class figure in this nine-horse claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, but Lily's Army's eye-catching 40% career win rate and Montauk Surf's solid rating make the underneath spots genuinely interesting.

win5Winston DML 7/2

Winston D leads all horses in this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a number that stands alone at the top of a competitive nine-horse claiming field. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Rachel Sells, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the public is starting to find this horse. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and five and a half furlongs is a sharp, punchy distance that suits a horse with this kind of overall profile.

place3Montauk SurfML 5/1

Montauk Surf rates a solid 77.64 — second in the field — with a 54 avg speed figure that ties for the field's best along with Winston D. Kevin Navarro picks up the mount for Paul W. Barrow at 5/1, a price that looks generous for a horse with the second-best number in the race. In shorter sprint company, pace positioning matters, and Navarro is adept at finding the right spot.

show2Disco DancerML 6/1

Disco Dancer at 6/1 checks in with a 66.4 rating and 12% career win rate for trainer Matthew Clarke. Emanuel De Diego handles the riding, and while the number doesn't jump off the page, it's still the third-best in the field. At 6/1, there's real show value here, and including Disco Dancer in trifecta tickets gives your exotics a profitable backstop if the favorite stumbles.

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is serving up a playable card today with excellent weather, a consistent dirt surface, and clear angles on both sides of the paywall. White Sport Coat in Race 1 is our marquee free play, and the premium card is loaded with pace-scenario intrigue in the route races. Subscribers get the full picture — check out our plans if you want every angle we've got. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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