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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a beautiful Wednesday at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 64°F, and a crisp late-September afternoon that should keep the dirt track playing fast. Eight races are on the board, spanning allowance, claiming, and maiden company, and our TrackWiz models are fired up on several plays across the card.

Fall racing at The Lakes always brings an interesting mix: horses dropping down from tougher summer campaigns, lightly raced maidens stretching out for the first time, and claiming barns looking to make a late-season score before the meet winds down. Today's card has all three flavors, and we've got strong opinions on where the edges are.

The top-rated horse on today's card is Hey Pal in Race 1 — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating in an allowance at a mile and 70 yards. That's a number that commands respect. But there's also a sneaky value angle shaping up in the claiming ranks later in the afternoon, where the morning line doesn't quite match what our models are seeing.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this allowance mile-plus opener, but the morning line suggests bettors will have to lay a short price — the real question is who fills out the exotics behind him.

win6Hey PalML 8/5

Hey Pal (#6) is the one to beat here and it's not particularly close on our TrackWiz ratings — an 89.12 tops the field by more than 16 points. What really separates him is a 20% career win rate, which dwarfs most of his rivals, and that 8/5 morning line from the morning-line maker tells you connections know they have the best horse. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro sends him out in good form, and with Keiber J. Coa in the irons, this is a professional operation expecting to win. At a mile and 70 yards on the dirt, a horse with his profile should be able to stalk and pounce.

place3Take the GoldML 7/2

Take the Gold (#3) is the logical backup at 7/2 on the morning line, posting a 66.85 TrackWiz rating that sits well clear of the rest of the field outside the top two. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro also conditions this one — interestingly, Ferraro has two runners in the race — and Joel Cruz gives the connections a capable pilot. If Hey Pal hits any traffic trouble, Take the Gold is positioned to capitalize and hit the board.

show5Sweet ToneML 5/1

Sweet Tone (#5) at 5/1 sneaks into our show spot with a 54.92 rating and some intrigue at a price. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Rafael Jose Rohena, and while the 5% career win rate isn't flashy, a horse doesn't need to win to earn a show check. In a race where the top two could battle it out up front, Sweet Tone could be the beneficiary coming home third.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints are always tricky to call, but this five-and-a-half furlong dash features a competitive cluster at the top with ratings separated by just a few points — the morning line favorite carries the TrackWiz edge.

win1Locked HornsML 2/1

Locked Horns (#1) tops our ratings at 58.33 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1, which is well-deserved in a field where no horse has broken their maiden yet. Oscar Gomez pilots for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the top mark in this field — the tactical profile fits a horse that can set or sit just off a pace in this short sprint. In maiden company, class and consistency of prep matter, and Locked Horns checks those boxes.

place6Silver KnightML 5/2

Silver Knight (#6) is our place pick at 5/2 on the morning line, backed by a 57.5 rating that's nipping at Locked Horns' heels. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the call for trainer Melanie Giddings — a jockey who knows how to navigate maiden fields — and an average speed figure of 53 is competitive at this level. This one fits perfectly as a place horse in exactas back to the favorite.

show4PlayinmindgamesML 4/1

Playinmindgames (#4) rounds out our tickets at 4/1 with a 55.0 rating and trainer Michael S. Ferraro — part of a family with a strong presence on today's card. No recorded average speed figure here, which adds some mystery, but the 55.0 TrackWiz rating slots this one squarely in the mix for show money. In wide-open maiden sprints, keeping your show bet at 4/1 instead of taking chalk is always smart value.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Trainer Timothy P. Murphy doubles up in this claiming mile-plus, and his entries look dangerous — expect this race to revolve around how the pace scenario unfolds between the top contenders.

win4Grand CommanderML 9/5

Grand Commander (#4) is our top selection with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and a morning line of 9/5 that reflects genuine respect from the oddsmakers. A 20% career win rate is a strong foundation for any claiming horse, and trainer Timothy P. Murphy is clearly sending out his best with Michael A. Davila, Jr. in the saddle. At a mile and 70 yards, a horse with this profile and these connections is dangerous at any level of the claiming ranks.

place2It's Not Over YetML 5/2

It's Not Over Yet (#2) makes a compelling case for our place spot with a 14% career win rate and an 81.24 rating that puts it solidly in the mix. Andre Shivnarine Worrie is an active rider on the Finger Lakes circuit, and trainer Lisa A. Reed has this one pointed for a solid effort at 5/2 on the morning line. If Grand Commander hits any trouble in a two-turn route, this one has the form to capitalize.

show1StjamesML 4/1

Stjames (#1) at 4/1 is a solid show-spot candidate with a 74.0 TrackWiz rating and trainer Rachel Sells keeping the horse eligible. Christopher Elliott pilots from the rail, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, the rating suggests this one is capable of hanging around for a check at a mile-plus distance. At 4/1, there's genuine show value here in multi-race exotics.

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they paint an interesting picture right out of the gate. Hey Pal opens the card as the morning-line favorite in an allowance going the classic Finger Lakes route of a mile and 70 yards, backed by that elite 89.12 rating. In Race 3, Grand Commander (88.83) shapes up as a similarly strong figure-based play in a claiming route. Both horses profile well for a fast, honest dirt surface — the kind of condition where class and raw speed figures tend to shine.

Sandwiched between them is the Race 2 maiden sprint, where Locked Horns gets the nod at 2/1 on the morning line. Maiden sprints are always volatile — you're often betting on potential more than proof — but our model sees enough here to go with the top pick. The clear, dry conditions today favor horses that can get to the lead without burning up early, so pay attention to pace scenarios in these early sprint and route splits alike.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This maiden route goes behind the premium wall, and it's worth it — Sliceaway stands out as a TrackWiz standout in a seven-horse field that has a legitimate second option to keep exotics interesting.

win5SliceawayML 4/1

Sliceaway (#5) tops our ratings at 85.62 — well clear of the field — and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line, which is fair value for a horse with this kind of numerical edge. Trainer Nicholas P. Zito is a Hall of Fame conditioner, and having a horse trained by Zito in maiden company at Finger Lakes deserves attention. Keiber J. Coa takes the mount, one of the busiest and most capable riders on the grounds, and this partnership should be live at a solid price.

place1Rockstar BabeML 9/2

Rockstar Babe (#1) is an interesting place play at 9/2 with a 75.06 rating for trainer Charlton Baker, who also runs Masquerademistress in this same race. Luis E. Perez gets the top Baker entry, suggesting connections view this one as the primary weapon from the barn. An average speed of 52 over a mile-plus in maiden company keeps her relevant for the place spot.

show6Hip Hop DancerML 5/1

Hip Hop Dancer (#6) rounds out our show selection at 5/1 with a 57.94 rating — third-best in the field — and trainer Rafael Jose Rohena puts family connections on the line with J. M. Rohena in the irons. The partnership suggests this barn is confident enough to run their own jockey, which is often a positive sign. At 5/1, this is a value-priced show ticket in a wide-open maiden sprint that could easily produce a price exacta.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full twelve-horse field in this claiming sprint makes for a chaotic pace scenario — the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are separated by less than a point, setting up a genuine battle at the wire.

win10ClarividenteML 5/1

Clarividente (#10) comes in as our top-rated horse at 84.17 and offers genuine value at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price you want to be on when the TrackWiz number is that strong. An 11% career win rate in what is presumably a competitive claiming history suggests this horse knows how to win, and trainer Luis Gutierrez has Nazario Alvarado in the irons. An average speed figure of 54 ties for best in the field, which matters a lot in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint where early pace and late punch both count.

place4Signifying NothingML 7/2

Signifying Nothing (#4) at 7/2 is our place pick with an 83.33 rating that's nearly matching our top selection — this is as close a 1-2 as you'll find on the card today. Keiber J. Coa is a powerful booking for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and a 10% career win rate with an average speed of 54 shows consistent form at this level. In a big field, a horse this well-rated at 7/2 is practically a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

show5Cinnamon SugarML 5/2

Cinnamon Sugar (#5) rounds out the exotics at 5/2 on the morning line and is our show selection with a 72.31 rating and a 16% career win rate — one of the better strike rates in this field. Trainer Charlton Baker has Andre Shivnarine Worrie on board, and an average speed figure of 54 matches the top tier of this competitive sprint. At 5/2, she might end up as the short-priced horse in a sequence, so use her accordingly in your tickets.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses have separated themselves from the pack in this claiming six-furlong, with Khali's Dream and Breaking Stones posting the top two TrackWiz ratings — this shapes up as a duel with a clear pecking order.

win5Khali's DreamML 5/2

Khali's Dream (#5) is our top pick at 5/2, backed by an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and a 16% career win rate that reflects consistent competitiveness. Trainer Chris J. Englehart puts Andre Shivnarine Worrie on board, one of the more reliable rider-trainer pairings at Finger Lakes this meet. An average speed figure of 54 is sharp for a six-furlong dirt race at this level, and the morning-line price suggests the market already respects this one — but 5/2 is still workable in exotics.

place7Breaking StonesML 3/1

Breaking Stones (#7) at 3/1 is nearly as strong with an 83.11 rating and backs it up with an average speed of 55 — actually the joint-highest in the field alongside Tommy the Torch. Trainer Paul W. Barrow puts Jeremias Flores in the irons, and a 14% career win rate shows this horse is no slouch. If there's a pace duel up front, Breaking Stones has the late punch to be hitting the board at a price that's friendlier than the favorite.

show9Magic SpinML 6/1

Magic Spin (#9) at 6/1 is an intriguing show play with a 59.22 rating that slots in third among our selections. A 16% career win rate gives Magic Spin a legitimate shot at hanging around for a check, and trainer Amy Albright also runs Tommy the Torch in this race, suggesting familiarity with the field dynamics. At 6/1, Magic Spin is exactly the type of horse you want anchoring your trifecta at a price.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mambagigi looks like the horse to beat in this claiming sprint with dominant ratings, but the field underneath is tighter than it looks — Glory Bound Clara and Teresa make for legitimate ExoticWiz threats at bigger numbers.

win7MambagigiML 2/1

Mambagigi (#7) is the standout of this race and perhaps one of the stronger plays on the entire card, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a morning line of 2/1 that still represents value when you see the 33% career win rate — that's one of the most impressive figures you'll see in a claiming field anywhere. Trainer Chris J. Englehart sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie, the same combination that we favor in Race 6, and a rider-trainer tandem that's clearly hot on this card. At five and a half furlongs on the dirt, a horse with a 33% career win rate and the top rating simply wins this race more often than not.

place2Glory Bound ClaraML 6/1

Glory Bound Clara (#2) is a live place play at 6/1, holding a 75.48 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a respectable 11% career win rate. Trainer William H. Bartlett sends out Jacqueline A. Davis on this one, and the 6/1 price in the place pool could offer terrific value if Mambagigi dominates on the front end. An average speed figure of 54 keeps Glory Bound Clara competitive in this sprint distance.

show1TeresaML 9/2

Teresa (#1) at 9/2 is our show selection with a 74.05 rating and one of the better career win percentages in the field at 17%. Trainer Luis Gutierrez — who also runs Bad Connection in this race — puts Reylu Gutierrez up, and a 17% career win rate out of the rail post in a sprint is a setup that fits. Teresa is the kind of consistent claimer who shows up for a check, making her a reliable anchor for trifectas.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming fillies at five and a half furlongs to close the card — Funny Forecast tops the ratings with a clear edge, but this is a full nine-horse field where the place and show spots are very much up for grabs.

win9Funny ForecastML 7/2

Funny Forecast (#9) is our best bet to close the card, posting an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that stands well above the rest of the field — nearly eight points clear of the second choice. Trainer Charlton Baker puts Olaf Hernandez on board at a 7/2 morning line, which feels like a solid overlay given the numerical edge this horse carries. An average speed figure of 53 in maiden claiming company is competitive, and in a race where no horse has ever won, the one with the most upside tends to graduate.

place2Camille's LegacyML 3/1

Camille's Legacy (#2) is our place selection at 3/1 with a 78.56 rating and the services of Keiber J. Coa — who has had a strong presence on today's card. Trainer Michael A. LeCesse keeps this one sharp, and an average speed of 53 matches the field's competitive tier. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market is already warming up to her, and she's the horse most likely to challenge Funny Forecast for the win if the favorite stumbles.

show4Peruvian PrincessML 4/1

Peruvian Princess (#4) at 4/1 wraps up our selections with a 66.19 TrackWiz rating for trainer Paul W. Barrow — who also saddles Anna Brocknana in this race, giving the barn two bites at the apple. Oscar Gomez gets the primary Barrow runner here, which is always a telling sign of which one the barn prefers. An average speed figure of 53 and a competent jockey booking make Peruvian Princess a solid show-ticket inclusion to close out the day.

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Bottom line: today's Finger Lakes card has genuine teeth, with top-rated plays in Races 1 and 3 headlining a free preview worth bookmarking, and a stacked premium set of races that our models are high on from top to bottom. Hey Pal is the marquee name to know today. Want the full picture, exotic strategies, and pace maps for all eight races? It's all available to TrackWiz subscribers — see /pricing to get on board. Good luck at the windows.

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