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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a Tuesday afternoon at Finger Lakes and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for in late September — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 64°F, and a full 8-race card on the dirt. No rain in the forecast means we should have a consistent, fair surface all day, which makes speed figures and pace scenarios more reliable than usual.

The card is a nice mix of conditions — Starter Optional Claiming, straight Claiming, and a pair of Allowance spots to give it some class variety. Whether you're building a Pick 4 ticket or just hunting a single, there's something to work with here across all eight races.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro saddles two runners in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, and his better-rated horse looks like the dominant figure — but a pair of sneaky 8/1 shots could complicate the exacta.

win4Bustin AwayML 8/5

Bustin Away is the clear class of this field according to TrackWiz ratings, posting an 89.12 — a full ten points clear of the second-ranked horse. That 40% career win rate is exceptional at this level and suggests a horse that regularly converts when conditions suit. Joel Cruz gets the call for the Ferraro barn, and with an average speed figure of 56 — tops in the race — Bustin Away figures to have pace in reserve over six furlongs on the Finger Lakes dirt. At 8/5 on the morning line, you're paying for quality, but the profile demands respect.

place2Pompous PrinceML 5/2

Pompous Prince is the stablemate to our top pick, and trainer Ferraro clearly has two live bullets in this one. His 79.38 TrackWiz rating and 24% career win rate make him a legitimate threat to hit the board at the very least. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market already respects him, but in an exacta box with the top pick, he's a natural fit.

show3CanyouhearmerunninML 8/1

Canyouhearmerunnin is the price play worth sprinkling into your exotics. At 8/1, a 74.17 rating and a 25% career win rate — best in the field — make this horse intriguing as a show anchor. Trainer Dana Saul sends Jose Baez up, and if the two Ferraro horses burn each other up early, Canyouhearmerunnin could be picking up the pieces late.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A wide-open nine-horse claiming route at a mile and 70 yards, where the morning line favorite isn't the highest-rated horse — setting the stage for some genuine value in the exotics.

win2Jessica's RideML 7/2

Jessica's Ride owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35, and her 22% career win rate is well above average for a claiming route. Kevin Navarro takes the mount for trainer Jonathan Buckley, a capable barn-jockey combo at this level. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's not even the morning line chalk, which means the market may be undervaluing her — that's exactly the kind of overlay we want to bet into.

place4Jayce and LiamML 5/1

Jayce and Liam checks in at a 71.10 TrackWiz rating for the Englehart barn, which also saddles Silent Melody — so the trainer has two bites at the apple. Despite a modest career win rate of 8%, the rating gap between Jayce and Liam and the rest of the mid-pack is meaningful. At 5/1, he's a fair price for the place slot in your exactas and trifectas.

show3Chardonnay DerbyML 4/1

Chardonnay Derby at 4/1 has a solid 69.66 rating and matches Jessica's Ride with a 22% career win rate, suggesting a consistent performer who finds ways to be competitive. Trainer John Grabowski puts Keiber Coa on board — a reliable rider at Finger Lakes — making this a crafted, intentional spot. She's the logical show anchor to round out the ticket.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The allowance conditions here create a clear divide: one horse owns a significant rating edge over a tightly bunched group of mid-tier contenders, making this a potential single-horse race if the pace sets up properly.

win1EnterprisinglyML 5/2

Enterprisingly sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a commanding margin over the field — and Kevin Navarro has the call for trainer Jonathan Buckley. This is the same barn-jockey tandem we like in Race 2, and Buckley's horses have been firing at Finger Lakes. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and at 5/2, there's enough price here to make a straight win bet worth considering alongside the exotics.

place2Alma's LawML 2/1

Alma's Law is the morning line favorite at 2/1, which is curious given she rates well below Enterprisingly on our metrics. That said, a 55.08 rating and 9% career win rate in allowance company isn't embarrassing, and Reylu Gutierrez is a sharp rider who can find trouble-free trips. She should hit the board, but we'd rather be on her underneath than on top.

show3PencimaML 12/1

Pencima is the price play at 12/1 with a 54.92 rating — nearly identical to Alma's Law — making the morning line disparity look like an opportunity. Trainer Assaf Ronen puts Jacqueline Davis aboard, and the spot looks like one where the barn is trying. At those odds, sneaking her into your show position or trifecta wheel is a low-cost hedge that could pay handsomely.

TrackWiz is unlocking three races for everyone today, and they span the early card nicely. Bustin Away (8/5 morning line, TrackWiz rating 89.12) tops our free selections in Race 1 and is the highest-rated pick of the entire card — that number stands out on a day where we're expecting a fair, dry surface to reward horses who've earned their figures honestly. In Race 2, Jessica's Ride (7/2) offers a touch of value relative to the field, and Enterprisingly (5/2) in the Race 3 Allowance round out the free look with a strong rating of 87.81.

The connecting thread across these three free races? All three are routing or sprinting on dirt under conditions that should play straightforward — no slop bias, no wind factor, just raw ability and pace. If you're building a small early Pick 3, this trio makes a natural foundation.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster between 83 and 87 on the TrackWiz scale in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — expect a competitive pace duel with plenty of action in the exacta.

win1Mischievous TrickML 7/2

Mischievous Trick tops our ratings at 86.35 and wins 25% of the time for the career — numbers that command attention in any field. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is having a productive day on this card, and booking Keiber Coa is a savvy move for the six-furlong distance. At 7/2 on the morning line, Mischievous Trick offers a bit of value given her rating edge, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps her competitive on pure numbers.

place4Lady SerenityML 5/2

Lady Serenity rates second in the field at 84.60 and carries an average speed figure of 55 — the highest in this race — which suggests she can be dangerous if she gets into a forward position early. Trainer Chris Englehart puts Andre Worrie up, a solid combination at this distance. At 5/2, she may go off as the actual betting favorite, but she's still worth anchoring in your place spots.

show3Marilyn's Ny PrideML 4/1

Marilyn's Ny Pride is the eye-catcher here with a 55% career win rate — an extraordinary number that immediately signals this horse performs when conditions align. She rates 83.21 and draws Oscar Gomez at 4/1, and trainer Richard Shaffer clearly has her pointed right. If the top two horses get into a speed duel, Marilyn's Ny Pride could be sitting on the perfect stalking trip to pounce.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite and our top-rated horse diverge sharply in this mile-and-70 claiming event — the market likes Grand Warrior at 2/1, but TrackWiz sees Rockstar Casanova as the stronger play.

win2Rockstar CasanovaML 5/1

Rockstar Casanova owns an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — tops in this field — and a 22% career win rate that's well above the claiming average. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, a consistent barn at Finger Lakes, and the 5/1 morning line represents genuine overlay versus the rating gap. With the morning line favorite Grand Warrior rated over nine points lower, we're happy to take the price here and trust the numbers.

place6Grand WarriorML 2/1

Grand Warrior is the market's choice at 2/1, and that 25% career win rate plus a 74.72 TrackWiz rating gives the public's money credibility. Keiber Coa — one of the busiest and most effective riders on this card — handles him for trainer Anthony Adamo. He's a safe place bet, but we'd rather take the win price on Rockstar Casanova and use Grand Warrior underneath.

show4Fiscal DragML 4/1

Fiscal Drag rates 71.45 and gives trainer Ralph D'Alessandro another competitive runner on the day at 4/1. Luis Perez has the mount, and the 13% career win rate is modest but in line with this claiming bracket. He's the logical third wheel in the trifecta — price is fair and the rating supports a board finish.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two closely-matched horses lead a nine-horse claiming sprint at five and a half furlongs — the race sets up as a pace-dependent affair where position out of the gate could be decisive.

win8Diva BankerML 4/1

Diva Banker leads all horses in this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate that, while modest, tells a story of a horse who's been running against tougher. Joel Cruz takes the mount for trainer David Oyola, and an average speed figure of 54 — tied for tops in the race — gives Diva Banker the raw speed to compete at five and a half furlongs. At 4/1 morning line, this is a legitimate value play for a horse that figures to be running hard late.

place7Thin LegsML 3/1

Thin Legs is the natural rival at 84.11 and draws Michael Davila Jr. for trainer James Acquilano. The 23% career win rate is the second-best in this field and suggests a horse that converts at a solid clip when given the right opportunity. At 3/1, she might actually go off as the public's choice, but she belongs in every exotic combination regardless of final odds.

show4Book of WisdomML 7/2

Book of Wisdom slots in at 80.41 for trainer Dana Saul and Jose Baez — the same powerful combination we've flagged throughout this card. A 10% career win rate is on the lower end, but the rating gap between Book of Wisdom and the rest of the field is meaningful. At 7/2, this is a comfortable show anchor for trifecta players looking to cap a mid-range ticket.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The morning line has Senegal installed as the 2/1 favorite, but TrackWiz's top-rated horse Beach Invasion goes off at 5/2 — a small but meaningful disconnect that shapes our entire approach to this allowance route.

win4Beach InvasionML 5/2

Beach Invasion leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — the joint-best win percentage in the field — making her a standout selection in this allowance field. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, who's been one of the most active trainers on today's card, throws Keiber Coa aboard for the one-and-one-sixteenth-mile trip. At 5/2, there's a marginal overlay versus the morning line favorite, and the rating edge is large enough to make Beach Invasion a near-single for horizontal bettors.

place6SenegalML 2/1

Senegal is the public's top choice at 2/1, and trainer Thomas Morley hands the lines to Reylu Gutierrez, a sharp pilot who navigates the long Finger Lakes route well. The 60.14 rating is a fair ways off Beach Invasion's number, but a 12% career win rate in allowance company shows Senegal is competitive at this level. He's a natural place bet, and if Beach Invasion gets into any kind of trouble, Senegal is well-positioned to capitalize.

show7Eric From MiamiML 12/1

Eric From Miami is a delightful price at 12/1 with a 56.62 rating and Michael Davila Jr. in the irons for trainer Timothy Murphy — who also saddles Big Rich in this race, giving the barn two chances. The 11% career win rate is workable, and at those morning line odds, including Eric From Miami as your show horse in a trifecta is a low-cost play with a potentially big payoff if the top two hold serve.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint at six furlongs to close out the card — the field spreads wide on ratings, with a legitimate top-rated horse at a fair price and a couple of intriguing mid-priced exotics underneath.

win3AnmoloML 4/1

Anmolo shares the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 85.62 alongside a 9% career win rate that belies a horse who's been placed against tougher competition. Trainer Nirka Huertas sends Emanuel De Diego up, and the average speed figure of 54 — tied for tops in the race — gives Anmolo genuine raw pace for six furlongs on dirt. At 4/1 morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated horse, and TrackWiz analysis makes this a confident win selection to close the card.

place10Liv Has RizzML 8/1

Liv Has Rizz rolls in as program number 10 with a 78.62 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — strong numbers that make her legitimate despite a wide post. Trainer Chris Englehart puts Andre Worrie up, and this barn-jockey duo has been reliable throughout the meet. At 8/1, this is the value play of the race — if you're building a place parlay or an exacta with Anmolo, Liv Has Rizz is exactly the kind of overlay you want underneath.

show6Ragtime PranksterML 7/2

Ragtime Prankster rates 76.96 for trainer Donna Bireta and jockey John Berrios at 7/2 on the morning line. The 5% career win rate is low, but the rating is third-best in the field and suggests a horse whose form may be trending better than the record implies. As a show option or trifecta play in a wide-open closing race, Ragtime Prankster rounds out the ticket at a workable price.

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Finger Lakes on September 29 is a clean, digestible 8-race card on a dry surface — exactly the kind of day where doing your homework pays off. Bustin Away is the marquee play, but the value spots deeper in the card are where the real money is made. Free analysis covers Races 1–3; unlock Races 4–8 with a TrackWiz subscription and get the full picture before you head to the windows.

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