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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Rain is falling at Finger Lakes on Wednesday, August 19, and that changes everything. With the track playing wet and temperatures sitting at 74°F, the dirt surface is going to be a major factor all afternoon. Horses that handle off-track conditions — or that draw inside posts to avoid the worst of the kickback — move up significantly in our TrackWiz ratings today.

We've got an 8-race card to work through, a mix of allowance company and claiming action that offers something for every style of player. Three races are open to all readers, and the full card breakdown — including pace projections and multi-race wager angles — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout sits at the top of this allowance mile-and-change, but the morning line suggests the market hasn't fully bought in — creating an interesting dynamic between the favorite and a pair of sneaky live runners.

win6Beach InvasionML 2/1

Beach Invasion is the most dominant figure in this field by a significant margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 against a field where the next closest sits at 72.35. That 30% career win rate is elite for this level and tells you this horse knows how to close the deal. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro has a strong hand here, and the 2/1 morning line actually looks like fair value given the rating separation. Keiber J. Coa gets the call, and this horse looks like a confident top selection in the allowance opener.

place3Seams Like DestinyML 7/2

Seams Like Destiny earns the place nod with a solid 72.35 rating and a 15% career win rate — respectable numbers at this level. The 7/2 morning line gives you a workable price, and trainer Troy Smith puts Reylu Gutierrez aboard, a capable pairing for this distance. If Beach Invasion runs to her number, Seams Like Destiny profiles as the most likely to claim a share.

show1SanzioML 4/1

Sanzio at 4/1 is worth including in your exotics as a show hedge — the 68.06 rating is third-best in the field and the horse has been around the block enough to hit the board. Andre Shivnarine Worrie takes the mount for Michael S. Ferraro, and at a mile and seventy yards, there's room for a stalker to pick up late pieces. Not a win threat in this field, but a legitimate show play.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers are a crapshoot by nature, but this one has a clear standout on TrackWiz numbers — the question is whether a field full of first-time winners can produce a surprise underneath.

win6King SolomonML 2/1

King Solomon carries the top rating in this field at 88.54, a number that stands well above everyone else in a six-horse maiden claimer over 5½ furlongs. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro and jockey Jacqueline A. Davis team up, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the public's awareness of this horse's edge. In maiden claiming sprints, dominant figures often deliver — King Solomon is the play.

place1Bye for NowML 5/2

Bye for Now draws the rail with a 66.36 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 53 — matching King Solomon at the top of the speed column. Trainer Raymond Handal sends this one out with Camila Hargrove up, and the 5/2 morning line slots nicely as a value place option. If the top selection runs into any trouble from post one, Bye for Now has the raw numbers to nip a spot.

show2Solo StreetML 3/1

Solo Street at 3/1 is the third-best rated horse in the field at 61.24, and Kevin Navarro is a solid booking from post two. The price is fair and the speed figure is competitive — in a field where nobody has won before, having the top-three rated horses in your exotics is sound structuring.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse don't align in this six-furlong claimer — Probably Flattery is the standout on our numbers while Shellac drew the chalk, setting up a compelling odds-versus-data storyline.

win1Probably FlatteryML 5/2

Probably Flattery tops our ratings at 87.81 in a race where that figure is well clear of the field — and yet the morning line has this horse at 5/2, not the favorite. That's a value spot worth noting. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro deploys Keiber J. Coa, the same combination powering several solid plays on this card. A 7% career win rate sounds modest, but in claiming company, consistency and raw speed are what matter — and the numbers here are strong.

place6ShellacML 2/1

Shellac opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite and posts a 69.5 rating — second-best in the field. Jose Baez handles the mount for trainer Dana Saul, and a 10% career win rate suggests this horse competes regularly without always getting the job done. That profile screams place horse — solid enough to hit the board, but possibly not fast enough to beat Probably Flattery straight up.

show5Valiant WarriorML 7/2

Valiant Warrior at 7/2 offers some interest as the third piece of this sequence — a 62.73 rating backed by a 16% career win rate and average speed figures of 54, which actually top the field on that metric. Oscar Gomez gets the call for Debra A. Breed, who runs live horses. At 7/2 for a show play, Valiant Warrior rounds out a sensible trifecta structure.

Our three free races today span the card nicely. Beach Invasion opens the day in the allowance mile and draws attention immediately — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 2/1 morning line in a route race on a muddy track is a combination that demands respect. In Race 2, King Solomon matches that 88.54 rating in the maiden claiming sprint, and maiden dirt sprints on wet tracks can produce some of the most decisive wire-to-wire efforts of the day. Round out the free trio with Probably Flattery in the Race 3 claiming sprint — a 5/2 shot with an 87.81 rating who fits the pattern of a horse getting the conditions they want.

One connective thread across all three free races: in wet-track dirt sprints and routes at Finger Lakes, horses that can establish early position tend to hold on. Pace scenario matters more than usual today. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claimer is a two-horse race on TrackWiz numbers, with Intentious sitting atop the ratings and Zi End posing the biggest statistical threat — the rest of the field faces a steep uphill climb.

win4IntentiousML 8/5

Intentious owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 89.12 and backs it up with a 31% career win rate — numbers that demand respect in any spot. The 8/5 morning line tells you the public is on board, and Kevin Navarro is one of the sharper jockey bookings on this card. With an average speed figure of 55 tied for the field lead, the pace scenario over six furlongs sets up well for a horse this capable.

place6Play Good Pay GoodML 5/1

Play Good Pay Good at 5/1 is the sneaky value play in this spot — a 65.18 rating with a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 54 puts this horse in the mix for a piece of the pie. J. M. Rohena rides for Chris J. Englehart, and at 5/1, this is a name worth putting underneath Intentious in your exactas. Horses at this price with these figures have a habit of showing up for second money.

show2Zi EndML 2/1

Zi End is the most fascinating horse in this race — a 54% career win rate is extraordinary, and the 61.12 TrackWiz rating still makes her competitive. The 2/1 morning line suggests she'll be heavily supported, but our analysis puts Intentious comfortably ahead on current ratings. Use Zi End as a show safety net or in exacta boxes — that win rate doesn't lie, even if the TrackWiz figure has her second.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A fascinating allowance mile with two legitimate top-end horses and a handful of intriguing underdogs — the pace scenario over a flat mile could be the deciding factor as closers loom large.

win7SpeedstreML 3/1

Speedstre tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and carries the highest average speed figure in the race at 54 — a meaningful edge in an allowance field going a mile on dirt. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro sends this one out with Joel Cruz up, a pairing that knows how to get horses home at Finger Lakes. The 3/1 morning line represents solid value for a horse with a 14% career win rate and clear statistical separation from much of this field.

place5CrysterML 5/2

Cryster is the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 and backs that up with an 82.14 TrackWiz rating — strong enough to challenge for the win but arguably the safest place bet on this race. Trainer Paul W. Barrow also conditions Le Midi's Treasure, giving him two horses to maneuver with. At a mile, a 14% career win rate combined with these raw numbers is a very playable place profile.

show2Sweet ToneML 7/2

Sweet Tone at 7/2 looks interesting as the show option — a 72.74 TrackWiz rating and a 2% career win rate might seem contradictory, but this is a horse that may be breaking through soon given the underlying numbers. Trainer Rafael Jose Rohena sends this one out with Luis E. Perez, and at this price with that rating, the show position offers genuine value for trifecta construction.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Love Coin is the class of this allowance field and draws strong market support as well — but a pair of nearly identical second-tier horses sets up a competitive battle for the minor awards.

win7Love CoinML 9/5

Love Coin is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.83 and the 9/5 morning line favorite, and it's easy to see why — a 33% career win rate is exceptional and the average speed figure of 54 leads the field. Keiber J. Coa is one of the go-to pilots at Finger Lakes, and trainer Miguel Clement has this horse pointing in the right direction. Over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, a horse with this profile rarely gets caught by a field this modest.

place3InonitML 2/1

Inonit at 2/1 is the second choice on the morning line and earns it with an 80.77 TrackWiz rating. Reylu Gutierrez, one of the more active jockeys on this card, gets the mount for trainer Lisa L. Lugovich. The 5% career win rate suggests this might be a horse still finding its way, but the underlying speed numbers are legitimate — place money looks well-directed here.

show5AlmezML 4/1

Almez is practically identical to Inonit on TrackWiz ratings — 80.72 versus 80.77 — which tells you both of these horses are legitimate contenders for the minor spots. Sofia Vives rides for Michael S. Ferraro at 4/1, offering a touch more value than the place pick. A 12% career win rate with a rating that close to the second pick makes Almez an essential piece of your trifecta.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Eddie Marie stands out sharply in this six-furlong allowance, but the real intrigue is the pack of closers clustered between 4/1 and 6/1 — underneath value is real in this one.

win4Eddie MarieML 5/2

Eddie Marie carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this field — and pairs it with a 33% career win rate that puts this horse in a different class from most of these rivals. Kevin Navarro gets the call for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, and that combination carries real credibility at Finger Lakes. The 5/2 morning line reflects the horse's standing without gouging you on price — this is a confident top selection.

place1La IndecenteML 6/1

La Indecente at 6/1 is the value angle in this race — a 66.03 TrackWiz rating with an average speed of 54 that matches the top closers in the field. Luis E. Perez rides for M. Anthony Ferraro, who is having a productive card. At 6/1, this is the kind of price you want underneath your top pick in exactas — horses at this number with these figures hit the board at a profitable clip.

show6Marilyn's Ny PrideML 4/1

Marilyn's Ny Pride is a fascinating show option at 4/1 — a 50% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin, even if the 64.68 TrackWiz rating places her third. Oscar Gomez handles the riding for trainer Richard Shaffer. That win rate suggests a horse that runs hard and competes, and in a race where Eddie Marie figures to handle the top, Marilyn's Ny Pride is a strong candidate to grab a piece.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite is not our top-rated horse in this 5½-furlong claimer — Anmolo carries the best TrackWiz number while I'm Mischievous gets most of the chalk, setting up a potentially profitable upset scenario.

win6AnmoloML 6/1

Anmolo tops our ratings at 82.71 and goes postward at 6/1 — a gap that represents genuine value if you trust the numbers. Trainer Nirka Huertas sends this one out with Emanuel De Diego, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company is a solid baseline. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive in this sprint, and horses that outrate the favorite by this margin at double-digit odds win more than the public expects.

place7Stormy's DreamingML 5/1

Stormy's Dreaming at 5/1 is another horse outrating the morning line favorite — an 80.58 TrackWiz figure with an average speed of 54 that actually leads this field on that metric. Oscar Gomez rides for trainer Lisa A. Reed, and a 5% career win rate won't scare anyone off, but the raw speed data here is compelling. At 5/1 for the place, this is a horse worth putting in your exactas as a serious threat to hit the board.

show2Winston DML 7/2

Winston D at 7/2 slots in as the show pick with a 72.42 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate — respectable numbers that put this horse third on our figures. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Rachel Sells, and an average speed of 53 is right in the mix for a 5½-furlong sprint. If the top two rated horses fire, Winston D is the logical third wheel.

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Bottom line: this is a weather-defined card at Finger Lakes, and the edge goes to players who respect what a wet track does to the pace and trip scenarios. Beach Invasion, King Solomon, and Probably Flattery are our free best bets to get you started. For the complete picture — Intentious, Love Coin, Eddie Marie, Anmolo, and all the exotic angles — the full analysis is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there today.

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