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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — August 24, 2026

August 24, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Welcome to Finger Lakes on Monday, August 24th — eight races under cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at a crisp 64°F. That cooler air is a welcome change, and on a sealed dirt surface it can mean horses run a little truer to form, which is exactly the kind of condition that rewards careful handicapping over gut instinct.

Today's card is all dirt, all business — a mix of claiming races that dominate the early and mid-card, a Maiden Special Weight sprint in Race 5, and a standalone Allowance race in Race 7 that figures to draw some of the classiest horses on the grounds. Eight races, plenty of angles, and our TrackWiz ratings have surfaced some genuinely interesting prices worth circling before post time.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today, with our top picks in Races 1, 2, and 3 available free of charge. Races 4 through 8 are covered in full for TrackWiz subscribers — and with a 4/1 shot in Race 6 and a 5/1 price in the Allowance, there's real value on the back half of this card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming opener with a clear TrackWiz rating standout at the top, but a massive career win percentage from the five-hole makes this anything but a formality.

win4ShortsinthewinterML 5/2

Shortsinthewinter (#4) owns by far the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 — a significant margin over the second-ranked horse. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro sends this one out with Keiber J. Coa in the irons, a pairing worth watching. The 5/2 morning line actually looks reasonable given the rating edge, and at 5.5 furlongs on the dirt, this should be a clean setup. The 6% career win rate is the one blemish, but the overall profile says this is the horse to beat.

place5Lily's ArmyML 6/1

Lily's Army (#5) is one of the most eye-catching horses on the entire card with a 66% career win percentage — that's a remarkable figure at any level. Jockey Jacqueline A. Davis gets the call for trainer Katlynn Gutterson, and at 6/1 on the morning line there's genuine value here if the top pick falters. The TrackWiz rating of 70.24 supports a strong place effort.

show6My Cool Hand LukeML 7/2

My Cool Hand Luke (#6) checks in with a solid 57.62 TrackWiz rating and matches the field's top average speed figure. Jeremias Flores rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the betting public is paying attention. As a show hedge or part of an exacta/trifecta combo, this one makes sense.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses rated in the mid-80s are separated by barely one point — expect a genuine pace battle between the top contenders and a wide-open trifecta underneath.

win3TroublerML 5/2

Troubler (#3) posts a 86.83 TrackWiz rating, tops in the field, and backs it up with a 25% career win rate — the best among any horse in this race. Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci sends Troubler out with Heman K. Harkie aboard, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a case where the favorite may actually be underpriced relative to the competition. At 5.5 furlongs, a horse with this win rate and this rating profile can be backed with confidence.

place4Adjustable RateML 4/1

Adjustable Rate (#4) is nipping at Troubler's heels with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — the second-best win percentage in the field. Kevin Navarro takes the mount for Jonathan B. Buckley, and the 4/1 morning line makes this a compelling place play. If the pace gets contentious up front, Adjustable Rate has the profile to pick up the pieces.

show6Pesadilla ChanelML 7/2

Pesadilla Chanel (#6) rates third in the field at 76.57 and represents a nice middle ground between the top two and the rest of the pack. Ramon M. Mulero rides for Nirka Huertas, and the 7/2 morning line keeps the value alive. Solid enough to anchor the bottom of your exotics.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Stretching out to a full mile, this claimer is headlined by a dominant ratings standout facing a field with spotty speed figures — lone class angle or pace collapse are both in play.

win6AlmendroML 2/1

Almendro (#6) checks in with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, the highest mark in this field by a wide margin, and carries an 18% career win rate that holds up well in a route. Jockey Jacqueline A. Davis teams with trainer Stephen P. Ubbink, and the 2/1 morning line is deserved — this is a horse that looks ready to control the pace scenario at a mile. The average speed figure of 54 also leads the field. Straightforward top selection.

place2America's JusticeML 5/1

America's Justice (#2) is the main value piece in this race, carrying an 18% career win rate that mirrors Almendro's but at a much friendlier 5/1 morning line. Joel Cruz rides for Beth Miller-Saul, and the 58.93 TrackWiz rating puts this one clearly in the mix for the place spot. At a mile, closers get a chance to finish, and the profile here fits that script.

show7MilagrosoML 6/1

Milagroso (#7) has the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 49.86, which in a route race with several lesser-rated horses is enough to anchor a show position. Steven Fret picks up the mount for Julius Ashley, and the 6/1 morning line offers some juice for exotics players. Not flashy, but a reasonable third wheel in trifecta construction.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of what Finger Lakes claiming fields look like in late summer — short sprints and a one-mile test that sorts out the plodders from the horses who actually want to run. Shortsinthewinter (Race 1, 5/2) and Troubler (Race 2, 5/2) both draw solid TrackWiz ratings in the 86-88 range, which for 5½-furlong sprints at this level suggests horses who should be competitive at reasonable prices rather than chalk you have to lay down heavy to cash. Don't sleep on either of these as single-leg anchors in your early Pick 3.

Almendro in Race 3 is the standout of the free trio — a 2/1 morning line with the highest rating of the first three races (88.54). Stretching to a mile on the dirt, pace scenario matters, and our analysis has Almendro in a spot where he shouldn't have to do a lot of early work. That's the kind of setup that plays well on a cool, firm day at this track. If you're only tracking one free race today, make it Race 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite sits third in our ratings, creating a prime overlay situation — Rockible's edge over the field is significant on paper despite not being the public's top choice.

win3RockibleML 3/1

Rockible (#3) leads this six-furlong field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, well clear of the rest of the horses, and the Reylu Gutierrez/Luis Gutierrez combination is one to respect. The 3/1 morning line undervalues the rating gap here — this is a horse that shapes up as a strong overlay. With a 10% career win rate in a field where most horses are clustered, Rockible's overall profile is the most complete.

place2Smokin' AloneML 6/1

Smokin' Alone (#2) is a sneaky interesting place play at 6/1 on the morning line, sporting a 66.57 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field. Oscar Gomez rides for Michael T. Sabine, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps this one competitive. If the top selection struggles to clear, Smokin' Alone has the profile to pick up the place money.

show7Allure of MoneyML 2/1

Allure of Money (#7) comes in with a 22% career win rate — the best in this field — and a 65.55 TrackWiz rating that ranks third overall. Emanuel De Diego gets the mount for Timothy P. Murphy, and despite the 2/1 morning line making this the public's pick, our analysis likes it lower on the ticket. Use it as a live show horse and in trifecta coverage.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight with a full field of winless horses — first-time starters and lightly-raced types make speed figures unreliable, so trainer patterns and workouts carry extra weight.

win10CelesliaML 3/1

Celeslia (#10) tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and shows an average speed figure of 54, which is the second-highest figure among horses who have recorded one. Jeremias Flores takes the mount for trainer Paul W. Barrow — Barrow also saddles Klum in this race, so he knows this field well. In a maiden race where many horses are unproven, a clear ratings leader is worth following, and the 3/1 morning line is fair without being a steal.

place8Lookie HereML 7/2

Lookie Here (#8) carries a 56.05 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — with Reylu Gutierrez aboard for trainer Bruce N. Levine. The 7/2 morning line makes this a solid value-place target in a race where the top of the market is thin. Levine is an experienced conditioner, and an average speed figure of 53 puts Lookie Here in the mix in what should be a competitive pace scenario.

show6Mischievous JoML 9/2

Mischievous Jo (#6) stands out with the highest average speed figure in the entire race at 56, giving trainer Domenick L. Schettino's charge a legitimate edge in the most basic measurement of raw pace. Omar Hernandez Moreno has the call, and the 9/2 morning line is workable. In maiden races, horses who have shown the fastest raw speed in prior efforts tend to show up at least for a piece, making this a logical show play and trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Bourbon Chase is not our top-rated horse — Beta enters as a significant overlay at 4/1, setting up a potential price play in this mile-and-70-yard dirt claimer.

win8BetaML 4/1

Beta (#8) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this nine-horse field at 85.62 and backs it with a 22% career win rate — the best in the race. Olaf Hernandez rides for Michael S. Ferraro, and the 4/1 morning line represents genuine overlay value given how far Beta's rating separates from the competition. In a route race where fitness and class tend to assert themselves late, a horse with this win rate and rating profile is hard to fade.

place9Bourbon ChaseML 8/5

Bourbon Chase (#9) comes in as the 8/5 morning-line chalk, trained by Michael S. Ferraro — the same barn as our win pick Beta. A 15% career win rate and 62.96 TrackWiz rating make Bourbon Chase a legitimate contender, but the odds suggest the market has overreacted. At a mile and 70 yards, the value may be in using Bourbon Chase for place rather than win given Beta's rating edge. Keiber J. Coa, a reliable rider, has the mount.

show7RegisterML 3/1

Register (#7) rates third in the field at 57.26 with an average speed figure of 54 — tied with Beta for the best in the race. Heman K. Harkie rides for Ilkay Kantarmaci, a trainer who has shown up elsewhere on today's card. The 3/1 morning line is reasonable, and in a race with potential pace pressure at a longer distance, a closer profile like Register's could come alive late for the show spot.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance field loaded with horses going different directions — two significant class angles and a career-win-rate outlier muddy the waters and keep this wide open.

win8Warrior Bunny ZeeML 5/1

Warrior Bunny Zee (#8) leads all horses in our ratings at 84.17 and sports an average speed figure of 54 that ties for the field's best. Keiber J. Coa gets the mount for trainer Michael A. LeCesse, a combination that commands respect in an allowance field. The 5/1 morning line is where the value lives — this horse rates clearly above the favorite Belloro on our model, and six furlongs on the dirt is a distance that tends to reward horses who can apply early pressure.

place9BelloroML 3/1

Belloro (#9) is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 74.86, with Andre Shivnarine Worrie taking the mount for Jeremiah C. Englehart. The 3/1 morning line makes Belloro the public's top pick, and while our model likes Warrior Bunny Zee more, Belloro's profile is strong enough to anchor the place position. In an allowance race, trainer Englehart is a name worth noting.

show1Honorable BeckyML 7/2

Honorable Becky (#1) rates third in the field at 61.35 and brings a 54 average speed figure for trainer Richard Shaffer with Jeremias Flores in the irons. The 7/2 morning line is fair value, and in a six-furlong allowance with potential pace pressure from multiple corners, a horse with this kind of consistent speed-figure profile can stay close enough to collect the show dime. A solid trifecta piece.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming closer to round out the card — two horses with notably higher ratings than the rest of the field make this easier to structure, but it's still a maiden race and upsets are always lurking.

win5Im GunnaML 4/1

Im Gunna (#5) tops this maiden claiming field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — a significant separation from the second-rated horse — while Heman K. Harkie rides for trainer Troy Smith. What's notable is that Im Gunna gets to this race at 4/1 on the morning line, meaning the market agrees, but there may still be some value given the rating gap. The 52 average speed figure is respectable, and in a six-furlong maiden claimer, a horse with this kind of model edge is the right play to build your ticket around.

place8Jamaica ReddML 6/1

Jamaica Redd (#8) is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 70.15 with a 52 average speed figure, and Steven Fret rides for Marvin Richards. The 6/1 morning line is attractive for a horse that profiles this well on paper — in maiden races, second-level rated horses often hit the board at a price when the top pick attracts the bulk of the money. Worth keying underneath Im Gunna in exactas.

show6Liv Has RizzML 5/2

Liv Has Rizz (#6) checks in at 67.93 on the TrackWiz scale with a 52 average speed figure, ridden by Andre Shivnarine Worrie for trainer Chris J. Englehart. The 5/2 morning line signals public confidence, and Englehart is a known commodity at Finger Lakes. While our model ranks Liv Has Rizz third in the field, the horse is close enough to Jamaica Redd on the ratings to factor in trifecta construction, especially at a condensed price.

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is serving up a workmanlike eight-race dirt card on a cool Monday, and our free picks — Shortsinthewinter, Troubler, and Almendro — give every reader a strong starting point. For the full picture, including pace projections, exotic tickets, and our take on a potentially vulnerable favorite in the Allowance, subscribe to TrackWiz and get the complete card. Good luck out there — and as always, bet what you can afford to lose.

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