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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026

August 18, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Clear skies and a comfortable 76°F greet the horses at Finger Lakes today — about as good as upstate New York gets in August. The rail should be honest, the dirt fast, and the pace scenarios clean. Eight races are on the menu, all on the main track, ranging from quick six-furlong sprints to a pair of route tests stretching past the mile marker.

What makes today's card worth your attention? A loaded sprint sequence dominates the first half of the card, setting up some interesting multi-race opportunities. We've also got a couple of Allowance Optional Claiming routes in Races 6 and 7 that could reward the patient handicapper willing to dig into the pace projections. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on all eight — read on for the breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite gets outrated by a 5/1 shot in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer — classic situation where the crowd may be wrong and the value is sitting right in front of us.

win4Saratoga BankerML 5/1

Saratoga Banker tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 despite being posted at 5/1 on the morning line, which is exactly the kind of overlay situation we love. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro puts him with Keiber J. Coa, a strong book combination at this level. His 26% career win rate is solid for allowance company, and that rating edge over every other horse in the field is meaningful over six furlongs of Finger Lakes dirt.

place1BlamickerML 2/1

Blamicker is the morning line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate gives him the best win percentage in the field by a wide margin. Chris Englehart has him sharp, and Andre Worrie gets the call. He's a must-include in exactas under any scenario, even if our model likes Saratoga Banker on top.

show3PuckishML 5/2

Puckish at 5/2 brings a 71.93 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and trainer Jonathan Buckley has him well-spotted here. With Joel Cruz in the irons, he figures to find his way into the trifecta as a natural closer behind any early pace pressure from the top two.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

M. Anthony Ferraro doubles up with two entrants in this starter optional claimer, and his pair look like the class of the field — watch for a stable exacta scenario at a potentially nice price.

win3Pompous PrinceML 2/1

Pompous Prince leads all comers with a 88.54 TrackWiz rating — highest in the race — and goes postward as the 2/1 morning line choice with Keiber J. Coa up for trainer Ferraro. His 26% career win rate is respectable, and the speed figure edge over even his stablemate is notable. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, that rating advantage often translates directly to a clean, front-running effort.

place1Bustin AwayML 4/1

Bustin Away at 4/1 is a serious threat to win this outright — a 40% career win rate is exceptional and gives this horse the strongest win record in the field. Paired with Sofia Vives and also trained by Ferraro, this is a barn that runs to win, not to fill. The 83.93 rating makes him a clear second choice and a lock for exacta coverage.

show6GatsbyML 5/2

Gatsby at 5/2 rates third in the field at 76.77 and gives trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci a live runner. Silvestre Gonzalez gets the mount, and with an 18% career win rate, Gatsby is consistent enough to hit the board even if the Ferraro pair run 1-2 as expected. Worth including in trifecta construction as the likely third wheel.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An upset alert in this six-furlong allowance — the morning line favorite carries just a 65.98 rating while a 3/1 shot tops the field at 87.08, setting up a scenario where the public money may be chasing the wrong horse.

win3Three Nines FineML 3/1

Three Nines Fine has the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a significant margin over every rival — and goes at a very playable 3/1 on the morning line. Kevin Navarro rides for Jonathan Buckley, a trainer who knows this circuit well. Despite a 20% career win rate that might look modest, the rating differential here is wide enough that Three Nines Fine projects as a decisive winner if running to current form.

place2Sounds of SummerML 4/1

Sounds of Summer is worth a long look at 4/1 with a 74.75 rating — second best in the field and well ahead of morning line favorite Angel Gift. Trainer Paul Barrow sends Joel Cruz out on this one, and the 20% career win rate mirrors Three Nines Fine's exactly. The value angle here is real: the public is likely underestimating this horse while gravitating toward the heavily-backed favorite.

show1Angel GiftML 8/5

Angel Gift opens as the 8/5 morning line favorite for trainer Jeremiah Englehart, which gives you pause when her 65.98 TrackWiz rating sits third in the field. That said, her 28% career win rate is the best in the race and Andre Worrie has the rail advantage. She rates as a solid show play but may be overbet to win — use her underneath in trifectas rather than on top.

Three races are open to everyone today, and we like what we see. Saratoga Banker kicks things off in Race 1 at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth paying attention to in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, where our rating of 84 suggests he fits the field well. Race 2 is the one to circle: Pompous Prince tops our board with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice in the Starter Optional Claiming. High ratings at manageable odds don't come around every day. Race 3's Allowance sprint brings Three Nines Fine into the mix at 3/1 — an 87-plus rating in a straight Allowance spot is a profile we respect.

The throughline connecting these three free picks? All are six-furlong dirt sprints, which means pace is everything. On a clear, fast-playing surface like today's, early speed that can also sustain into the lane is the winning formula. Watch how the gate opens in Race 1 — it'll tell you a lot about how the rest of the sprint card sets up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Tekila dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this seven-horse claiming sprint, but there's genuine depth behind her — the trifecta could get interesting if any pace pressure sets things up for closers.

win6TekilaML 5/2

Tekila posts the top rating in the field at 87.81 and is trained by Jonathan Buckley, who knows how to spot horses favorably in claiming company. Joel Cruz takes the mount, giving this combination a sharp rider-trainer pairing. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price isn't huge, but the rating edge is real and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, that kind of class advantage rarely goes to waste.

place1Grand Lady IndyML 7/2

Grand Lady Indy is an interesting piece at 7/2 with an 82.73 rating — second best in the field despite posting just a 12% career win rate. Trainer Samuel Morales has her with Luis Pena from the rail, which at Finger Lakes is a prime spot in a sprint. The rating suggests she consistently runs better than her win column indicates — exactly the horse you want in the exacta slot.

show7Bad ConnectionML 3/1

Bad Connection at 3/1 rounds out the top three with an 80.55 TrackWiz rating, and his 13% career win rate shows he's competitive at this claiming level. Trainer Luis Gutierrez puts John Berrios aboard, and the 54 average speed figure matches the top pair. This is a horse that profiles as a solid trifecta piece — live enough to challenge but not quite at the same ceiling as Tekila.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Keigs looks like the standout in this five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint, carrying a dominant rating and a career win percentage that towers over the competition — but the 8-horse field creates pace uncertainty.

win6KeigsML 7/2

Keigs is the clear top choice here, rating 86.35 on TrackWiz and posting a 36% career win rate — the best win percentage in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro has him with Luis Perez, and the 55 average speed figure is tied for the best on the card. At 7/2, this is a legitimate win bet without having to sacrifice much value.

place7NyikosML 5/1

Nyikos at 5/1 is worth a serious look with a 75.92 rating and a 20% career win rate — he fits this class and distance profile well. Jose Baez gets the mount for trainer Dana Saul, and the 55 average speed figure keeps him competitive in the speed figures department. The 5/1 morning line price makes him a genuine value in the exacta if Keigs wins as expected.

show5MayheminthepalaceML 8/1

Mayheminthepalace opens at 8/1 but posts a 68.92 rating that actually ranks third in the field — not a throwaway price. Trainer Ilmar Loaiza sends Reylu Gutierrez out on a horse showing a 21% career win rate and 54 average speed. If the pace gets hot up front, this horse projects as the type to find a late run and hit the board at a price that inflates your trifecta payout nicely.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Stretching out to a mile and 70 yards on dirt, this allowance optional claimer has a clear class angle at the top — but two horses with 30%+ career win rates make the exacta pool worth attacking.

win6PassionedML 5/1

Passioned tops our ratings at 84.17 and gets a powerful trainer-jockey combo in M. Anthony Ferraro and Keiber J. Coa — one of the sharper pairings at this meet. His 26% career win rate holds up at this level, and the rating margin over the field is the key separator. The 5/1 morning line makes him a genuine overlay given that edge, especially at a two-turn distance where class tends to surface in the stretch.

place3Bank FrenzyML 5/2

Bank Frenzy at 5/2 is the morning line public choice and brings the most impressive career win percentage of any horse that matters — 41% lifetime. Manuel Franco gets the call for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, and the 75.17 rating is a legitimate second-best in the field. His 54 average speed is consistent with the top contenders, and he's the safest exacta underneath Passioned.

show4King's LeapML 4/1

King's Leap at 4/1 carries a 72.98 rating and a 33% career win rate — that's a horse who finds ways to hit the board. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro doubles up with Passioned in the same race, and Luis Perez handles King's Leap. In a two-turn race where pace scenarios can jumble the order, having a consistent horse with a 33% win rate covering the show position is solid exotic strategy.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This mile-and-70 allowance optional claimer looks wide open at the top — several horses cluster between 40 and 47 on the ratings, but a lone standout at 84.17 could make this easier than the morning line suggests.

win6ZeebearML 5/1

Zeebear sits alone atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in a field where the next best horse checks in at 61.56 — that's an enormous gap in a race like this. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro puts Keiber J. Coa up, the same combination we're backing in Race 6, giving them a chance to sweep the two-turn races on the card. The 19% career win rate is modest, but at 5/1, the rating dominance here is the story — this is a horse running in significantly softer company than his figures suggest.

place4FreedsdaleML 3/1

Freedsdale at 3/1 is the most accomplished horse in the field by win percentage at 33%, and Ferraro has a second runner in the race — always a sign the barn has multiple live horses. Joel Cruz rides, and the 61.56 rating puts him clearly ahead of the remaining field. He's likely to be competitive for the place even if Zeebear's class advantage proves decisive.

show5OusterML 7/2

Ouster at 7/2 ties Freedsdale's 33% career win rate and earns the mount for Kevin Navarro under trainer Jonathan Buckley. His 47.40 rating is modest but the 33% hit rate in his career suggests a horse that competes, and the morning line price implies more respect than his TrackWiz number alone might generate. A solid show inclusion in trifectas given the field's overall compression in ratings.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Stormin Sammy headlines a wide-open six-furlong closer to the card — a top-rated horse at a double-digit morning line price is unusual, and that disconnect makes this race one of the more intriguing wagering opportunities of the day.

win7Stormin SammyML 5/1

Stormin Sammy has the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 and goes postward at 5/1 on the morning line — a situation where our analysis and the public are not fully aligned, which is exactly where value lives. Trainer Rachel Sells puts Oscar Gomez up, and the 19% career win rate is reasonable for claiming company. The 55 average speed figure is tied for the best in the field, and the rating edge makes him the clear top selection.

place4Flying in StyleML 7/2

Flying in Style at 7/2 rates second in the field at 77.09 and is trained by Charlton Baker with Andre Worrie in the irons — a competent pairing at this level. His 10% career win rate is on the low side, but the 54 average speed and strong TrackWiz number suggest he runs well without always closing the deal, making the place position a natural fit. He's the most logical exacta partner underneath Stormin Sammy.

show5Coach BaheML 4/1

Coach Bahe at 4/1 is worth sticking in trifectas — a 20% career win rate and a 58.49 rating put him third in the field with Jonathan Buckley training and Kevin Navarro riding. His 52 average speed is a tick below the leaders, which actually profiles him as a closer who might find the board if the front runners get into a duel. At 4/1, the trifecta payout gets juicy if he sneaks into third behind the top pair.

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It's a clean, all-dirt August day at Finger Lakes, and the sprint-heavy card plays right into our strengths. Pompous Prince in Race 2 is the top-rated play on the free card, Three Nines Fine in Race 3 is right behind him, and the premium half of the card has some genuine multi-race value worth chasing. Subscribers get the full roadmap — everyone else, enjoy the free picks and good luck at the windows.

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