Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — August 4, 2026
It's a beautiful Tuesday at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 79°F, and a fast Dirt surface that should reward horses with tactical speed all afternoon. Eight races are on the menu, and the conditions are about as clean as you'll get at the Canandaigua oval this time of year.
The card leans heavily on Claiming company, with six of the eight races run at that level, which means class movement is going to be a recurring storyline. Two Allowance spots — Race 1 and Race 7 — bookend the day and give us the most reliable form to work with. If you're building multi-race tickets, those two anchors deserve your attention first.
TrackWiz analysis has flagged eight top picks across the full card. Let's break down what's free, what's behind the paywall, and why today's card is worth your time from the first post to the nightcap.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A clear top-rating standout at the top of this allowance mile-and-a-sixteenth, but two live contenders lurk underneath and could make the exacta interesting.
Go Yoshida (6) carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and draws in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite under Keiber J. Coa for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. The pace scenario over 1 1/16 miles on dirt should suit a horse with this kind of composite profile — the distance asks for class and stamina, and the rating edge here is substantial. A 17% career win rate may look modest, but at allowance level these numbers translate well, and the Coa-Ferraro combo at Finger Lakes is one to respect.
Mandalorian (1) is the most interesting counter-punch in this race, posting a career win rate of 40% — by far the best in the field — and a solid 80.15 TrackWiz rating under Emanuel De Diego. The 4/1 morning line represents fair value given that strike rate, and the 1 1/16-mile dirt trip looks right in his wheelhouse. If Go Yoshida gets pressured early, Mandalorian has the pedigree of a winner to swoop late.
Burn Notice (3) checks in at a 76.26 rating and a 25% career win mark, giving trainer Michael S. Ferraro a second bite at the apple in this race alongside stablemate Sanzio. Reylu Gutierrez picks up the mount, and that's an upgrade worth noting. At 5/1, Burn Notice is a reasonable exotic inclusion — the rating gap between him and the top two isn't wide enough to leave him off your tickets.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
Real Eleve stands out on the numbers in this dirt claiming route, but the morning line has the favorite at 4/1 — meaning there's legitimate value if the rating holds up.
Real Eleve (2) tops this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 53, giving trainer Katlynn Gutterson a well-positioned runner at 4/1 on the morning line. Jacqueline A. Davis has been busy at this meet and knows the Finger Lakes strip. In a claiming route over a mile and 70 yards, the ability to sustain speed matters most — and Real Eleve's profile says she's capable of doing exactly that.
Redoubtableripken (4) is the speed horse to watch here, posting the field's top average speed figure at 54 — a tick above the rest of the field. Oscar Gomez gets the call for trainer Matthew Clarke, and at 8/1 on the morning line, there's overlay potential if the pace scenario sets up for him. The 78.47 rating and 11% career win rate make him a logical exacta partner with Real Eleve.
Stjames (1) opens as the 5/2 second choice despite carrying a modest 5% career win rate, which tells you the morning-line maker respects something in the recent form. The 69.94 rating isn't flashy, but Jeremias Flores is sharp on this circuit and trainer Rachel Sells keeps her horses fit. In a claiming race where pace can collapse, a closer type with a live jockey is always worth a show investment.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Esther's Salad looks like a class standout in this dirt claiming mile, but Fashionable Kitty and Soho Nights are closely matched and could make the place and show positions competitive.
Esther's Salad (1) leads all comers with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite for trainer Rachel Sells under Luis E. Perez. A 11% career win rate is offset by the sheer rating advantage — she's nearly 24 points clear of her nearest rivals. Perez is a capable pilot at this level, and a one-turn mile on Finger Lakes dirt is a surface and distance profile that suits horses who can rate and fire.
Fashionable Kitty (4) holds a 65.05 rating and comes in at 4/1, giving trainer Ralph D'Alessandro a runner who grades out a step above Soho Nights despite the similar odds. J. M. Rohena picks up the mount, and the 6% career win rate is the one knock — but in claiming company, fresh horses with live speed figures can outperform that number. She's worth keying underneath Esther's Salad in exactas.
Soho Nights (3) brings a 22% career win rate — second-best in the field — and a 64.07 rating that puts her just a nose behind Fashionable Kitty. Trainer Thalia Areche also has Tomaki in the race, which means this barn came prepared. At 7/2, Soho Nights is a legitimate show play and a tri component if the top two hold their positions.
The first three races are open to everyone, and they give us a solid cross-section of what to expect today. Go Yoshida opens the card as the morning-line favorite in Race 1's Allowance at 1 1/16 miles — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 makes that 2/1 look fair, but not generous. In Race 2, Real Eleve draws our eye as a 4/1 shot on the morning line in a Claiming mile-plus route — that's the kind of price that can deliver real value if the pace scenario sets up right. And in Race 3, Esther's Salad matches Go Yoshida's 88.54 rating at the same 2/1 morning line, giving us back-to-back top-rated picks at identical odds to close out the free portion of the card.
One angle worth noting across all three: the dry, fast Dirt surface today tends to favor horses that can press or stalk a pace rather than closers hunting ground from deep. Keep that in mind as you assess each free race — position on the first turn matters on a day like this.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Go Yoshida is the top-rated horse on the card and the natural starting point for any single-race wager today. Real Eleve at 4/1 in Race 2 is the best free value play on the board. And if you're playing the full card, Practical Rachel at 6/1 in Race 5 is the longshot angle our premium subscribers won't want to miss. Head to /pricing to unlock the complete breakdown — posts go up fast on a clear-sky Tuesday at the Finger Lakes.