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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026

July 25, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

This card ran on July 25, 2026.

Best bets at Fairmount Park, July 25, 2026

Race 12Ten Mile HouseML 3/22:30 PM EDT

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It's a warm Saturday afternoon at Fairmount Park — 84°F, partly cloudy, and a full 8-race card on the dirt. Conditions look solid for speed, so expect horses with early foot to get every opportunity today. This is the kind of day where pace scenarios can really define your ticket, especially over Fairmount's tight oval.

The card mixes maiden action and claiming races with a trio of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that bump up the quality in the second half of the afternoon. There's a little something for everyone here — from straightforward single bets in the early races to some genuinely interesting multi-race angles later on. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Pure guesswork territory in this maiden sprint — first-time starters across the board mean no speed figures or win percentages to lean on, so trainer patterns and morning line confidence become the tiebreakers.

win2Ten Mile HouseML 3/2

Ten Mile House opens at 3/2 on the morning line, which is the tightest price in the field and signals the market has real respect for this debut. Our TrackWiz rating of 59.17 is the highest in the race by a clear margin, suggesting the underlying indicators — works, connections, and physical profile — point in the right direction. Trainer James M. Watkins puts him out there with jockey Travis Wales, a combination worth noting in a wide-open maiden field where connections matter most. In a race where nobody has a public record, you ride the horse the morning line likes most.

place5MormoneytostartML 7/2

Mormoneytostart comes in at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83, second-best in the field, and trainer Terry Burdess has both entries (4 and 5) in the mix — which tells you the barn is serious about this race. Jockey Alvin Ortiz gets the call here, and in maiden sprints on the dirt, pace and positioning off the break can be everything. At 7/2, there's legitimate value if Ten Mile House gets into any trouble early.

show1Poki LokiML 5/1

Poki Loki opens at 5/2 and shares a 53.33 TrackWiz rating with Serene Empress, but it's the inside post (PP 1) that gives this horse an edge in a short five-furlong dash where getting away cleanly is half the battle. Trainer Steve Manley has two entries today (PPss 1 and 3) and Brody Martinez is a live rider who knows how to exploit a clean break from the rail. As a show hedge in a maiden opener, Poki Loki's price and post make for a sensible exotic play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top of this claiming field is unusually tight — three horses are separated by just over five points in the TrackWiz ratings and all share the same average speed figure, setting up what could be a genuine front-to-front duel.

win1No Pay No HayML EVN

No Pay No Hay is the class of this field on ratings, checking in at a 90.0 — the ceiling score — and lands at even money on the morning line, which is a strong signal from oddsmakers. Trainer Steve Manley sends this one out with Johanis Aranguren, and while the career win rate of 3% is modest, this is a claiming race where fitness and current form often outweigh raw historical numbers. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top of the field, meaning this horse can match strides with anyone and the superior TrackWiz score suggests something extra in the current cycle.

place2Lily's HomeML 9/5

Lily's Home at 9/5 is the logical backup here — a 5% career win rate is better than the top pick's, and the 85.99 rating keeps her well within striking distance of the top selection. Trainer Gene J. Sandrowski puts Brody Martinez aboard, and this horse's consistency at a 54 average speed figure means she's not likely to fall apart under pressure. In a three-way pace scenario, she's the horse most likely to benefit if No Pay No Hay gets into a speed battle.

show5She Stopped ShortML 4/1

She Stopped Short at 4/1 carries a solid 84.91 rating and an 8% career win percentage — the highest win rate among the top three picks in this field. Trainer Joel Campbell's entry with Cory Orm has the tools to compete at this level, and the 54 average speed figure puts her right in the mix. As a show play in a competitive claiming opener, 4/1 offers real value for exotic bettors looking to anchor a trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races give us plenty to work with. Ten Mile House opens the card at 3/2 on the morning line in a maiden special weight sprint over 5 furlongs — a competitive spot but our TrackWiz rating of 59.17 reflects just enough separation from the field to make the favorite viable. Then No Pay No Hay shows up as the even-money choice in Race 2, and our analysis pegs that one at a perfect 90.00 — that's as confident as it gets for a 5½-furlong claiming sprint. Race 3 brings us Honest Al at 8/5 going 6 furlongs, rated 89.12. Three strong early-race opinions, all on the short end of the morning line, which means the free card leans chalky — but chalk backed by data is still a sound starting point for building your afternoon.

With all three free picks posting TrackWiz ratings above 59 and two of them cracking 89+, the early card sets up as a potential rolling Daily Double and Pick 3 foundation. If you're playing multi-race wagers, locking in No Pay No Hay and Honest Al as singles in your sequences looks like the smart move heading into the premium half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Honest Al is a hard horse to ignore when he's posting a 31% career win rate against this company, but On the Money Red and Mister Sharpie are capable of making things uncomfortable if the pace sets up right.

win1Honest AlML 8/5

Honest Al is the standout in this six-furlong claiming sprint — a 31% career win percentage is exceptional at any level, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backs that up with hard data. The 8/5 morning line is deserved; trainer Ben Delong puts Victor Lara up, a rider who will have no trouble navigating from the rail position. The 54 average speed figure matches the best in the field, and the combination of proven winning ability and current form makes this a confident top selection.

place2On the Money RedML 7/2

On the Money Red has a 13% career win rate and the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 78.09 — a clear gap above the rest of the challengers behind Honest Al. Trainer Gabe Retana hands the reins to Alexander Bendezu, who's one of the sharper riders on the Fairmount circuit. From the two-hole, On the Money Red is perfectly positioned to stalk the pace and make a clean run at the top choice in the stretch.

show6Mister SharpieML 3/1

Mister Sharpie sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a 59.07 rating — not flashy, but workmanlike enough to hit the board in a six-horse field at this level. The 10% career win rate is respectable in the claiming ranks, and Ademar Santos is a capable pilot who can keep this horse out of trouble. For trifecta players, Mister Sharpie is the most logical third-place finisher given his consistency at the 54 average speed figure.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

3:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Then Now 'n Always is a heavy 3/5 favorite in this allowance optional claiming test — the question isn't whether she's the best horse, it's whether Nella or Lady Elise can steal enough share of the exotics to make the ticket worthwhile.

win4Then Now 'n AlwaysML 3/5

Then Now 'n Always checks every box here — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating (the model's ceiling), a 33% career win rate, and the best average speed figure in the field at 54, all packed into a 3/5 favorite tag that the market clearly believes in. Trainer Larry Rivelli puts Julio E. Felix aboard, a combination that carries serious credibility in this allowance optional claiming spot. At this level, a horse with a one-in-three career strike rate is rare, and the rating gap between her and the rest of the field is substantial. Barring a significant trip problem, she's the right single in this race.

place3NellaML 8/1

Nella at 8/1 is an underrated place play — a 22% career win rate is the second-highest in the field behind the favorite, and Eddie M. Essenpreis has trained her to compete at the allowance level. The 68.27 TrackWiz rating suggests she's not quite in Then Now 'n Always' league, but she doesn't need to be to hit the board. If the favorite draws all the attention on the front end, Nella's closing profile could be enough to earn second money at a juicy price.

show6Lady EliseML 3/1

Lady Elise at 3/1 has a 28% career win percentage — the third-best mark in the field — and a 66.78 TrackWiz rating that puts her solidly in the conversation for exotic plays. Trainer Mark J. Cristel sends Frank Reyes up, and the outside post (6) gives Lady Elise room to work without getting caught in traffic behind the favorite. She's not beating Then Now 'n Always today, but she's a reasonable show anchor for anyone constructing a wider ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

4:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Stretching out to a mile and 70 yards sorts out the field in a hurry — Some of It's 88.54 TrackWiz rating creates a clear class edge, but the longer distance opens the door for route-bred closers like Juliaison and Hot Dame to get involved.

win1Some of ItML 2/1

Some of It opens at 2/1 and earns it — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating is the class of this claiming route by a comfortable margin, and a 19% career win percentage gives this horse real credibility going long. Trainer Gabe Retana puts Alexander Bendezu in the saddle, a sharp pairing for a claiming route where pace management is critical. The average speed figure of 53 holds up well against the field, and at 2/1, there's enough value to make this a confident win play without feeling like you're hammering a chalk.

place4JuliaisonML 5/1

Juliaison at 5/1 is the sneakiest play on the board in Race 5 — a 54 average speed figure is the best in the field, which means this horse has real tactical speed heading into the longer trip. Trainer John C. Wainwright doubles up here (PPss 2 and 4) and clearly feels confident about Juliaison's route readiness with Javier Diego in the irons. The 61.02 rating slots him neatly as a place contender who could step up if Some of It gets pressured early.

show3Hot DameML 3/1

Hot Dame brings a 21% career win percentage — the highest in this field — which tells you she's been a consistent money-earner at the claiming level. Victor Lara picks up the mount for trainer Harry E. Lynch, and while the 60.94 TrackWiz rating is just a tick behind Juliaison's, the winning pedigree in her record makes her a reasonable show option. The average speed figure of 51 is the lowest among the top three picks, so she'll need the pace to set up in her favor, but her win rate alone keeps her in the mix.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Call Me Christine enters as the 6/5 morning line favorite with the best career win rate in the field, but our TrackWiz analysis flips the script — I Need More Money rates higher and offers far better overlay value at 9/2.

win3I Need More MoneyML 9/2

I Need More Money is the TrackWiz top selection at 84.90, and the 9/2 morning line makes this horse the best value bet on the card in Race 6. A 25% career win percentage in the claiming ranks is a strong mark, and the 54 average speed figure matches the best in the field. Trainer Harry E. Lynch and jockey Victor Lara are a live combo, and when our model disagrees with the morning line favorite, that's exactly the kind of overlay angle TrackWiz is built to find.

place6Call Me ChristineML 6/5

Call Me Christine at 6/5 is the public's horse for good reason — a 42% career win rate is extraordinary, the best by a wide margin in this field, and the 54 average speed figure shows she can go with the pace. Trainer Ralph Martinez has Brody Martinez in the irons (no relation, just business), and at this level she's clearly the most accomplished runner. The TrackWiz rating of 74.19 slots her as a place horse rather than the win pick, but she's dangerous enough to be in every exotic combination.

show2BilderbergML 6/1

Bilderberg at 6/1 brings a 21% career win percentage and a 62.89 TrackWiz rating that earns him an honest shot at the board in a seven-horse field. Trainer Mike Durham's runner worked with Ademar Santos aboard, and the six-furlong dirt distance suits the profile here. As a show play at 6/1, Bilderberg provides legitimate value for exotic bettors who want a price horse anchoring the third slot of their trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

5:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming sprint has legitimate intrigue — Nyquist Frequency leads our ratings but Frankie P's eye-popping 50% career win rate and top average speed figure create a fascinating pace-vs-class puzzle.

win3Nyquist FrequencyML 3/1

Nyquist Frequency rates at 87.08 — the best mark in this field — and the 3/1 morning line reflects genuine respect from oddsmakers. The 55 average speed figure is strong for this level, second only to Frankie P's 56, suggesting this horse can match strides with the early pace before taking over. Trainer Pat Clay hands the mount to Angel Ortega Stanley, a trusted pairing, and with a 6% career win rate that likely understates current condition, this horse fits the profile of a runner who's been working toward a breakthrough effort.

place1GalantiniML 4/1

Galantini at 4/1 is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 83.99, and the Julio E. Felix/James M. Watkins combination is one of the stronger trainer-jockey hookups you'll see at Fairmount. The 54 average speed figure is right in the mix, and while the 6% career win rate matches several others in the field, the rating gap between Galantini and the mid-pack suggests there's more ability here than the record shows. At 4/1, this is the kind of place play that can make an exacta very profitable.

show6Gun It and Run ItML 6/1

Gun It and Run It at 6/1 is the logical third wheel in this race — a 71.25 TrackWiz rating is clearly in the conversation for the board, even if the 4% career win rate is thin. Trainer Robert Pompell puts Ademar Santos aboard, and the 54 average speed figure confirms this horse can keep pace with the field through the early fractions. For trifecta players, the 6/1 price on a horse rated above mid-pack is the kind of show value that can separate a losing ticket from a winning one.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

5:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap at Fairmount is a full nine-horse allowance optional claiming field with legitimate depth — Wildwood Ruben is the morning line favorite, but Girlolamo'glory and Layton the Day create a triangle of form that makes this an exotic player's dream race.

win9Wildwood RubenML 8/5

Wildwood Ruben at 8/5 is the deserving favorite here — an 85.25 TrackWiz rating is the highest in the field, a 27% career win percentage is among the best, and a 54 average speed figure keeps him competitive on pure ability. Trainer Scott Becker sends Travis Wales to the post, a pairing that knows how to handle a horse in a competitive allowance spot. This is the kind of closer profile that thrives late in a nine-horse field when the pace heats up early — and with this much speed in the race, the fractions should be honest.

place7Girlolamo'gloryML 6/1

Girlolamo'glory at 6/1 is the value play of the nightcap — a 20% career win rate and an 82.71 TrackWiz rating are both serious credentials for a horse opening at this price. Trainer Lori Plasters has two entries in the race (PPss 4 and 7), and Cory Orm gets the call on this one, which suggests Plasters likes this runner's chances. The 54 average speed figure matches the top of the field, and at 6/1, an exacta with Wildwood Ruben on top could pay very well.

show4Layton the DayML 10/1

Layton the Day at 10/1 is the longshot show play worth considering here — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating is the third-best in the race, which is a significant underperformance relative to the morning line price. Trainer Lori Plasters, who also sends out Girlolamo'glory, put Julio E. Felix up here, and a 14% career win rate is respectable in an allowance optional claiming field. The 54 average speed figure holds up, and at 10/1, this horse could make trifectas genuinely lucrative if the top two rated horses run one-two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Fairmount's 8-race dirt card today offers a clear early-race foundation with No Pay No Hay and Honest Al as standout free plays, and a loaded premium half that could reward patient ticket builders. The weather is cooperating and the track should be playing fair — now it's about finding the spots where the morning line hasn't caught up with reality. Full card analysis, pace maps, and exotic plays are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.

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