Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 25, 2026
It's a warm Saturday afternoon at Fairmount Park — 84°F, partly cloudy, and a full 8-race card on the dirt. Conditions look solid for speed, so expect horses with early foot to get every opportunity today. This is the kind of day where pace scenarios can really define your ticket, especially over Fairmount's tight oval.
The card mixes maiden action and claiming races with a trio of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that bump up the quality in the second half of the afternoon. There's a little something for everyone here — from straightforward single bets in the early races to some genuinely interesting multi-race angles later on. Let's dig in.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
Pure guesswork territory in this maiden sprint — first-time starters across the board mean no speed figures or win percentages to lean on, so trainer patterns and morning line confidence become the tiebreakers.
Ten Mile House opens at 3/2 on the morning line, which is the tightest price in the field and signals the market has real respect for this debut. Our TrackWiz rating of 59.17 is the highest in the race by a clear margin, suggesting the underlying indicators — works, connections, and physical profile — point in the right direction. Trainer James M. Watkins puts him out there with jockey Travis Wales, a combination worth noting in a wide-open maiden field where connections matter most. In a race where nobody has a public record, you ride the horse the morning line likes most.
Mormoneytostart comes in at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83, second-best in the field, and trainer Terry Burdess has both entries (4 and 5) in the mix — which tells you the barn is serious about this race. Jockey Alvin Ortiz gets the call here, and in maiden sprints on the dirt, pace and positioning off the break can be everything. At 7/2, there's legitimate value if Ten Mile House gets into any trouble early.
Poki Loki opens at 5/2 and shares a 53.33 TrackWiz rating with Serene Empress, but it's the inside post (PP 1) that gives this horse an edge in a short five-furlong dash where getting away cleanly is half the battle. Trainer Steve Manley has two entries today (PPss 1 and 3) and Brody Martinez is a live rider who knows how to exploit a clean break from the rail. As a show hedge in a maiden opener, Poki Loki's price and post make for a sensible exotic play.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The top of this claiming field is unusually tight — three horses are separated by just over five points in the TrackWiz ratings and all share the same average speed figure, setting up what could be a genuine front-to-front duel.
No Pay No Hay is the class of this field on ratings, checking in at a 90.0 — the ceiling score — and lands at even money on the morning line, which is a strong signal from oddsmakers. Trainer Steve Manley sends this one out with Johanis Aranguren, and while the career win rate of 3% is modest, this is a claiming race where fitness and current form often outweigh raw historical numbers. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top of the field, meaning this horse can match strides with anyone and the superior TrackWiz score suggests something extra in the current cycle.
Lily's Home at 9/5 is the logical backup here — a 5% career win rate is better than the top pick's, and the 85.99 rating keeps her well within striking distance of the top selection. Trainer Gene J. Sandrowski puts Brody Martinez aboard, and this horse's consistency at a 54 average speed figure means she's not likely to fall apart under pressure. In a three-way pace scenario, she's the horse most likely to benefit if No Pay No Hay gets into a speed battle.
She Stopped Short at 4/1 carries a solid 84.91 rating and an 8% career win percentage — the highest win rate among the top three picks in this field. Trainer Joel Campbell's entry with Cory Orm has the tools to compete at this level, and the 54 average speed figure puts her right in the mix. As a show play in a competitive claiming opener, 4/1 offers real value for exotic bettors looking to anchor a trifecta.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Honest Al is a hard horse to ignore when he's posting a 31% career win rate against this company, but On the Money Red and Mister Sharpie are capable of making things uncomfortable if the pace sets up right.
Honest Al is the standout in this six-furlong claiming sprint — a 31% career win percentage is exceptional at any level, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 backs that up with hard data. The 8/5 morning line is deserved; trainer Ben Delong puts Victor Lara up, a rider who will have no trouble navigating from the rail position. The 54 average speed figure matches the best in the field, and the combination of proven winning ability and current form makes this a confident top selection.
On the Money Red has a 13% career win rate and the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 78.09 — a clear gap above the rest of the challengers behind Honest Al. Trainer Gabe Retana hands the reins to Alexander Bendezu, who's one of the sharper riders on the Fairmount circuit. From the two-hole, On the Money Red is perfectly positioned to stalk the pace and make a clean run at the top choice in the stretch.
Mister Sharpie sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a 59.07 rating — not flashy, but workmanlike enough to hit the board in a six-horse field at this level. The 10% career win rate is respectable in the claiming ranks, and Ademar Santos is a capable pilot who can keep this horse out of trouble. For trifecta players, Mister Sharpie is the most logical third-place finisher given his consistency at the 54 average speed figure.
The first three races give us plenty to work with. Ten Mile House opens the card at 3/2 on the morning line in a maiden special weight sprint over 5 furlongs — a competitive spot but our TrackWiz rating of 59.17 reflects just enough separation from the field to make the favorite viable. Then No Pay No Hay shows up as the even-money choice in Race 2, and our analysis pegs that one at a perfect 90.00 — that's as confident as it gets for a 5½-furlong claiming sprint. Race 3 brings us Honest Al at 8/5 going 6 furlongs, rated 89.12. Three strong early-race opinions, all on the short end of the morning line, which means the free card leans chalky — but chalk backed by data is still a sound starting point for building your afternoon.
With all three free picks posting TrackWiz ratings above 59 and two of them cracking 89+, the early card sets up as a potential rolling Daily Double and Pick 3 foundation. If you're playing multi-race wagers, locking in No Pay No Hay and Honest Al as singles in your sequences looks like the smart move heading into the premium half of the card.
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Bottom line: Fairmount's 8-race dirt card today offers a clear early-race foundation with No Pay No Hay and Honest Al as standout free plays, and a loaded premium half that could reward patient ticket builders. The weather is cooperating and the track should be playing fair — now it's about finding the spots where the morning line hasn't caught up with reality. Full card analysis, pace maps, and exotic plays are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there.