Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026

Tuesday, July 28, 20268 racesFairmount Park

It's a hot Tuesday at Fairmount Park — 90 degrees, partly cloudy, and the kind of afternoon where a cold drink and a winning ticket both sound really good. Eight races are on the board today across a full dirt card, and there's plenty to dig into from the first post to the finale.

The heat is worth keeping an eye on. Fairmount's strip can get quick and cuppy on sweltering summer days, which tends to reward horses who can settle early and finish strong rather than those who sprint out and fade. Watch for that theme running through the card today.

We've got three races open to every TrackWiz reader — including a couple of spots where our analysis thinks the public might be sleeping on some real value. The premium full-card breakdown covers five more, including a pair of allowance races that look like the meat of today's betting menu.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint-route hybrid at a mile and 70 yards with all first-time or winless runners — two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin, making this a two-horse race at the top with a clear pecking order.

win4Union RoarML 9/5

Union Roar owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.42, a significant gap over the rest of the maiden pack. Jockey Julio E. Felix gets the call, and at 9/5 on the morning line, the market agrees with our model. In a maiden field where none of these horses have broken their maiden, that rating edge — nearly 20 points clear of the third-best horse — is hard to dismiss over a route distance that should expose any fitness gaps.

place6Ky O SisterML 5/2

Ky O Sister comes in as the logical second choice with a rating of 77.18, just a whisker behind Union Roar at the top. Jockey Johanis Aranguren gets the mount, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she represents solid place value. In a maiden race where the top two horses are clearly separated from the field, connecting these two in exactas is the play.

show3Miss DuquoinML 7/2

Miss Duquoin at 7/2 is the most logical third wheel here, posting a rating of 55.83 that puts her comfortably ahead of the remaining four runners. E.T. Baird, one of the more experienced riders on the Fairmount circuit, picks up the mount for trainer John Rednour Jr. At 7/2, she's worth anchoring in trifecta tickets as the show piece.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming dash features a textbook overlay situation — the horse with the top TrackWiz rating goes off at 8/1 while a horse rated significantly lower is installed as the 3/2 favorite, setting up potential value at the windows.

win6Long Tall WomanML 8/1

Long Tall Woman is our top-rated horse in this field at 79.79, yet the morning line has her at 8/1 — a classic overlay angle that TrackWiz analysis loves to flag. She posts the field's best average speed figure at 55 and carries a career win rate of 23%, which ranks among the top in this claiming field. Trainer Francisco Villa and jockey Frank Reyes will need to execute, but the numbers say the market is underestimating her.

place2Ornery AngelML 3/2

Ornery Angel is the public's choice at 3/2 and the second-ranked horse in our model at 75.34 — she's legit, and a 21% career win rate backs that up. She's worth including in exactas underneath Long Tall Woman, and if the favorite instinct kicks in for casual bettors, she'll likely run well enough to collect a place check. Alexander Bendezu, a strong hand in the Fairmount colony, keeps the mount.

show1Blaze BeautyML 5/1

Blaze Beauty opens at 5/1 and posts a solid rating of 55.95, which gives her a real edge over the bottom half of this field. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends her out with Angel Ortega Stanley aboard, and her 10% career win rate is workable in a six-furlong claimer. She's the kind of horse you toss in the trifecta as your third slot — not flashy, but defensible.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where one horse is a heavy 3/5 morning-line favorite but our model says a 5/2 shot holds the decisive edge — pace scenario and ratings create an interesting gap between the public's perception and the TrackWiz numbers.

win7Averyz DayML 5/2

Averyz Day tops the TrackWiz model with a dominant rating of 87.81 — the highest in this race and a massive 27-point gap over the second-rated horse. That's a canyon-sized edge in a maiden claiming sprint. Jockey Victor Lara gets the call for trainer Harry E. Lynch, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse offers legitimate value given what the model says. Six furlongs on dirt is a fair test, and Averyz Day's figures project a clear class edge over these.

place3GhidorahML 3/5

Ghidorah is the heavy public favorite at 3/5 with E.T. Baird aboard for trainer Larry Rivelli — no one is going to argue those credentials. A rating of 60.0 is respectable, and Baird-Rivelli is a pairing worth respecting at Fairmount. Use Ghidorah underneath Averyz Day in exactas to maximize coverage if the public money is right.

show1Creating HavocML 15/1

Creating Havoc is a sneaky interesting show play at 15/1 morning line, sitting third in our ratings at 57.47 in a race where the field below her is dramatically weaker. Trainer Heriberto Villalobos ships her in, and Javier Tavares takes the mount. In a trifecta, she's a cost-effective third choice against a field that drops off sharply after the top three.

The free side of today's card kicks off with a maiden special weight route — Union Roar draws our top rating at 9/5 on the morning line, a fair number if the TrackWiz rating of 79.42 holds up on this surface. From there we shift to the sprint distance, where Long Tall Woman jumps off the page as a legitimate price play in Race 2's claiming event at 8/1. Don't let that morning line scare you off — our models have her sneaking up on a soft favorite here.

Race 3 rounds out the free picks with Averyz Day earning the day's best rating among the free races (87.81) in a maiden claimer going six furlongs. At 5/2 she's not a screaming overlay, but the number is strong and the distance suits. All three free picks are on a dirt surface that could play fast today — front-runners and pace-pressers deserve extra attention given the conditions.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This is a premium race — locked behind a TrackWiz subscription — and it's easy to see why: a three-horse battle at the top between near-identical ratings creates a genuine puzzle, with Warrior of Gold and Larry the Poet separated by less than a point in our model.

win2Warrior of GoldML 9/5

Warrior of Gold earns the win pick with a rating of 87.74, topping this claiming field by a thin but meaningful margin. He carries a 20% career win rate, and trainer James M. Watkins — who also has Shortstop in this race — clearly believes in this runner, placing him in the top spot. Victor Lara rides, and at 9/5 morning line, the market has him right. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, the slight pace edge and higher rating make him our top selection.

place5Larry the PoetML 3/1

Larry the Poet at 3/1 is functionally a co-top pick — his TrackWiz rating of 87.08 is virtually tied with Warrior of Gold, separated by less than a point. Emmanuel Giles rides for trainer Jose G. Rodriguez, who also has the longshot God Guns N Guts in the race. A 13% career win rate is on the lower side compared to Warrior of Gold's 20%, but the speed figure of 54 matches him stride for stride. This is a prime exacta-boxing situation at the top.

show3ShortstopML 3/2

Shortstop is the second Watkins runner in this race and checks in at a solid 79.47 rating — third in the field but well clear of the bottom three. Johanis Aranguren picks up the mount, and Shortstop's 14% career win rate is respectable for a claiming runner. At 3/2 morning line, the show price won't be generous, but he's the logical third horse to anchor your trifecta.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile where the top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite are actually two different horses — Crushed Ice owns the model lead but Steampunk drew more public attention, setting up a potential separation on the far turn.

win4Crushed IceML 3/2

Crushed Ice leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.27 — the top mark among all seven runners — and posts a 23% career win rate that ranks near the top of this allowance field. Trainer Scott Becker fields two horses in this race (Wildwood Bye is the other), and jockey Alexander Bendezu draws the mount on the better of the pair. At 3/2 morning line, the market respects the form, and over a one-mile dirt route, a horse with this kind of rating edge should be able to relax early and unleash late.

place1SteampunkML 7/5

Steampunk is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 but sits second in our model at 72.7 — a meaningful gap behind Crushed Ice that suggests she may be overbet. Victor Lara handles the mount for trainer Steve Manley, and a 15% career win rate is workable. The value play is using Steampunk underneath in exactas rather than on top — let Crushed Ice do the heavy lifting.

show2Arose for LylaML 6/1

Arose for Lyla at 6/1 is a legitimate third wheel here with a rating of 69.21 and the field's second-best career win rate at 18%. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends her out with Reynier Arrieta in the irons — a solid combination at this level. That 6/1 morning line price makes her an excellent trifecta anchor and a horse worth a small win play if you're looking for value in the mile distance.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance optional claimer where the top-rated horse goes postward at a generous 7/2 morning line while a less-decorated runner holds the 2/1 favorite slot — speed figures and career win rate tell a more compelling story for the overlay.

win4Wildwood SicilianML 7/2

Wildwood Sicilian tops our model at 86.35 and posts the field's best average speed figure at 56, which in a six-furlong dirt sprint is the most relevant number on the page. Trainer Scott Becker puts Alexander Bendezu up, and at 7/2, you're getting a horse with a 24% career win rate — the highest in this field — at what looks like an underlay in the making. The combination of top speed, top win rate, and top rating makes this a strong win selection.

place2Committee of OneML 2/1

Committee of One is the public's choice at 2/1 with a rating of 74.53, and trainer Lori Plasters keeps Ademar Santos in the irons. She matches Wildwood Sicilian on average speed at 55, so this could be a front-end duel that sets up nicely for our top pick to pounce. At 2/1, the place price won't be exciting, but in a field this compact at the top, she's a realistic threat to hit the board.

show6JuilliardML 3/1

Juilliard opened at 3/1 and checks in with a rating of 57.37 — third in the field and a reasonable gap above the rest. Travis Wales rides for trainer Pat Clay, who also has Jack Sixpack in this spot, giving the barn two shots. Juilliard's average speed of 56 matches the top two, so the class question is really about consistency — at 3/1, he's a fair trifecta piece.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming route at a mile and 70 yards featuring a major ratings upset in the making — the 4/5 morning-line favorite ranks only fifth in our model, while a 7/2 shot owns the decisive edge, making this one of the card's most intriguing betting opportunities.

win3TapinyourbluejeansML 7/2

Tapinyourbluejeans heads our ratings at 86.35 and goes postward at 7/2 morning line — a significant overlay given that Lemon Drop Shot at 4/5 ranks fifth in our model at just 66.0. Trainer John Wiese puts Reynier Arrieta in the irons, and a 23% career win rate is the highest in this nine-horse field by a comfortable margin. Over a mile and 70 yards, the form and fitness edge our model identifies should come through in the final sixteenth.

place7Millard's SmileML 9/2

Millard's Smile comes in third in our ratings at 76.5 and opens at 9/2 — nice place value for a horse our model rates this highly. Trainer Harold Mosier sends him out with Alvin Ortiz, and a 16% career win rate is solid for this class. In a nine-horse field over a route, he's the type who can track a hot pace and pick up pieces late — exactly the profile you want in the place slot.

show6Solomon VandyML 10/1

Solomon Vandy at 10/1 is a value angle worth exploring in trifectas — a rating of 69.08 places him fourth in the field and comfortably ahead of the lower half. Trainer Marvel U. Straub saddles him with Ademar Santos up, and while his 8% career win rate is modest, a route trip at this price makes him a cost-effective trifecta inclusion. If the favorite Lemon Drop Shot underperforms the way our model suggests, the trifecta could pay handsomely with Solomon Vandy in third.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden special weight sprint at five and a half furlongs closes out the card — several runners lack any speed figure history, making this partially a guessing game, but one horse stands well above the rest in our model and represents a clear top selection.

win1MilaalahML 7/2

Milaalah heads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — a substantial margin over the second-best runner in the field — and Victor Lara picks up the mount for trainer Harry E. Lynch. An average speed figure of 53 is the same as several rivals, but the overall rating gap suggests Lynch has her condition tuned well for this spot. At 7/2 morning line, you're not getting a steal, but in a maiden field this unpredictable, backing the top-rated horse with a credentialed rider is the most defensible position.

place10Turtle PaceML 5/2

Turtle Pace opens at 5/2 as the second choice and checks in at 69.1 in our model — second-best in the field and the public's preferred backup. Trainer Scott Becker, who showed up well in Race 5 and Race 6 today, sends Victor Santiago out on Turtle Pace. The 5/2 price reflects real respect from the market, and in a maiden sprint where several horses have question marks in their form, she's a logical place ticket.

show4Last CandyML 4/1

Last Candy at 4/1 posts a rating of 66.67 — third in the field and meaningfully above the mid-pack runners. Trainer R. Terry Young puts Luis H. Colon up, and her average speed of 53 matches the top contenders. In a wide-open maiden sprint with multiple first-timers and horses without speed figures, a horse with an established 53 average and a third-best rating is a solid trifecta anchor at a fair price.

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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: the heat is on, the dirt card is deep, and we've got actionable opinions from Race 1 through Race 8. Free readers, start with Averyz Day and take a long look at Long Tall Woman's price. Subscribers, Crushed Ice is our marquee play of the day — don't miss the full pace breakdown. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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