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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026

July 21, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

This card ran on July 21, 2026.

Best bets at Fairmount Park, July 21, 2026

Race 17Khozan's ValentineML 2/12:30 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a hot Tuesday at Fairmount Park — and we mean that literally. Clear skies and 91°F temps have the Collinsville oval cooking, which typically firms up the dirt surface and can tilt things toward early speed. Eight races are on the board today, all on the dirt, ranging from short sprints at 5½ furlongs to a longer test at a mile and 70 yards.

The card mixes Claiming and Maiden Special Weight action in the early going before stepping up to Allowance Optional Claiming and Starter Optional Claiming company in the back half. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong angles throughout — including one horse in Race 6 carrying our highest rating of the day at 89.42 — so there's plenty to dig into whether you're playing a race or two or grinding the full card.

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Race 1

2:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two heavy hitters at the top of the TrackWiz ratings set up a potential duel, but a strong mid-pack challenger makes this 5½-furlong claimer trickier than the morning line suggests.

win7Khozan's ValentineML 2/1

Khozan's Valentine draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for good reason — a TrackWiz rating of 88.07 leads this field, and a 26% career win rate shows this horse converts when pointed correctly. Trainer Clay Laux sends out a horse who consistently fires, and jockey Javier Tavares gives this barn a reliable hand up front. At the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the numbers back the chalk.

place8Good ScoutML 4/1

Good Scout sits just a tick below the top rated horse at 85.62 and lands with a 22% career win percentage that demands respect in any claiming field. Javier Diego gets the call and should have this one sitting close to the pace in a race where front-runners are expected to set a solid tempo. If Khozan's Valentine gets into any trouble, Good Scout figures to be right there to pick up the pieces.

show5Dillon RocksML 7/2

Dillon Rocks carries the second-highest rating in the field at 74.2 and draws the 7/2 morning line, making this one a legitimate contender rather than a mere hedge. A 14% career win clip is solid for the claiming ranks, and trainer Mike Durham keeps a tidy stable. Speed figures matching the top trio at 54 suggest Dillon Rocks belongs in the exotics and should at minimum hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight at six furlongs with a field of first-time or lightly-raced juveniles — the form is thin across the board, and the race hinges on which horse shows the most physical readiness on race day.

win1Army MedicML 4/1

Army Medic tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 85.62 — a meaningful separation from the rest of the pack — and Heather Irion has a reputation for placing horses in spots where they can win. Jockey Angel Ortega Stanley picks up the mount and draws the rail, which on a six-furlong dirt sprint isn't a death sentence. At 4/1 on the morning line, this looks like genuine value for a horse whose rating says it should be the favorite.

place3IfyouneedmecallmeML 9/5

Ifyouneedmecallme carries the morning-line favoritism at 9/5 and posts a solid 76.77 TrackWiz rating — good enough for second in this field. Trainer Dawn Martin puts up a horse with an avg speed figure of 54, matching the best in the race, and Emmanuel Giles in the irons adds a capable hand. The short price limits upside, but the underlying numbers justify confidence in a top-two finish.

show4W W NolanML 2/1

W W Nolan breaks from post 4 with a 2/1 morning line and a 58.33 TrackWiz rating that lands solidly in the middle of this field. Scott Becker trains, and the 2/1 price suggests the barn has reason to believe this one is ready. Worth including in exactas and trifectas — if the top two beat each other up, W W Nolan can sneak onto the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free previews today cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — a nice block of early action to get you oriented. Khozan's Valentine opens the card as the morning-line favorite in a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint and carries our top rating among the free races at 88.07. In the Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs, Army Medic at 4/1 on the morning line offers a bit more upside for value hunters — that's the kind of price that gets our attention in a maiden field where pedigree and workout patterns matter as much as past performance.

Then Rock the Birdhouse closes out the freebie window in a 6-furlong Claiming race at 5/2. With the track playing fast in the heat, pace is going to be a factor all afternoon — keep an eye on how these early sprint fields sort out up front, because the bias angle could carry right through the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

With Wildwood Encore scratched, this six-furlong claimer tightens to a five-horse affair with a clear top two on the ratings — Rock the Birdhouse and Time Break loom as the class of the field, but the pace scenario could shuffle things up late.

win1Rock the BirdhouseML 5/2

Rock the Birdhouse tops all remaining runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning-line co-favoritism at 5/2. Trainer Ralph Martinez also saddles Frosted Eclair, giving the barn a two-pronged attack, but Rock the Birdhouse is clearly the primary threat. Jockey Brody Martinez — sharing the barn name — gets the mount, and an avg speed figure of 54 ties the field's best. The class looks right for this level.

place6Time BreakML 3/1

Time Break rates second-best in the field at 84.08 and catches the eye as a closer type who could benefit if the pace gets heated up front. Frank Reyes has been active at this meet and takes a horse trained by Maximino Quinonez — a conditioner who knows how to spot a claimer for a win. The 3/1 morning line offers fair value on a horse whose rating is essentially right behind the top pick.

show2Freedom AttackML 3/1

Freedom Attack comes in at a 71.08 TrackWiz rating with Angel Ortega Stanley aboard and a 9% career win percentage that's honest for this level. Trainer Shane Childers puts this one out at 3/1, showing some confidence, and an avg speed of 53 is competitive in this reduced field. In a race that figures to be decided by the top two, Freedom Attack makes a reasonable show play and exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

3:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming at 5½ furlongs where the morning-line favorite Traject looks vulnerable — Dancewithmefiona tops the TrackWiz ratings despite being a bigger price, setting up a potential odds overlay for sharp players.

win1DancewithmefionaML 3/1

Dancewithmefiona rates highest in this field at 86.32 despite coming in at 3/1 on the morning line — a full price longer than the 6/5 favorite. Trainer Steve Fridley and jockey Victor Lara team up with a horse carrying the strongest numbers in the field, and a 54 avg speed figure at 5½ furlongs is the best in the bunch. This looks like a legitimate value play at the posted morning line — the rating suggests this is the horse to beat.

place6TrajectML 6/5

Traject gets the morning-line chalk at 6/5, and that short price means the crowd will likely bet this one down even further. A 75.29 TrackWiz rating and 14% career win percentage are respectable but trail the top pick meaningfully. Heather Irion has the horse primed, and Johanis Aranguren can get position from post 6 — this one figures to be right in the thick of it, even if the win pick beats it.

show3Classy EmilyML 6/1

Classy Emily opens at 6/1 and rates at 74.3 — just a hair below Traject — which makes the morning line look softer than the underlying numbers deserve. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount for Robert Pompell, who also trained Race 1's program horse, and a 12% career win rate at the allowance level is workable. At double-digit odds if the market misses her, Classy Emily slots nicely into trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

4:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mo Town Renee brings an eye-popping career win percentage into an allowance optional claiming field, but Disguised Devil's superior TrackWiz rating sets up a compelling top-of-the-card battle at six furlongs.

win4Disguised DevilML 2/1

Disguised Devil rates first in the field at 84.83 with a strong 27% career win percentage and posts in the two-hole at 2/1 morning line. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a name that travels well in the Midwest circuit, and Julio E. Felix gets the call. An avg speed of 54 and the class edge in this field make Disguised Devil the most well-rounded horse in the race from a numbers standpoint.

place5Saint GhaalebML 8/1

Saint Ghaaleb is the most intriguing value proposition in this race — a 33% career win percentage is legitimately elite, and the 8/1 morning line looks generous against a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that sits second in the field. Trainer Scott Becker sends this one out with Victor Santiago, a jockey who knows how to place horses in traffic on a six-furlong dirt sprint. If you're looking for a reason to play the exacta, Saint Ghaaleb underneath makes a lot of sense at the likely tote odds.

show6Mo Town ReneeML EVN

Mo Town Renee is the headliner the crowd will latch onto — a 50% career win percentage is remarkable and trainer Wayne M. Catalano is a high-percentage conditioner. However, the even-money morning line compresses the value, and the 79.33 TrackWiz rating trails both the win and place picks. Mo Town Renee belongs on tickets, but anchoring your wagers around slightly bigger prices here makes more strategic sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Escovedo stands out as a dominant favorite in this 5½-furlong claimer — a top TrackWiz rating, the field's best avg speed, and a 37% career win percentage make this one hard to beat, but the place and show spots are genuinely competitive.

win6EscovedoML 7/5

Escovedo is the class of this field by a wide margin — an 89.42 TrackWiz rating leads every horse on today's card so far, a 37% career win rate shows this horse is a consistent winner, and an avg speed figure of 55 bests everyone in the field. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Maximino Quinonez, who also spots Time Break in Race 3, showing an active and confident hand at this meet. At 7/5, the price is short, but the numbers are so far ahead of the competition that this is a tough horse to leave off any ticket.

place3Into Golden RoadML 4/1

Into Golden Road rates at 80.48 and opens at 4/1 for trainer Arthur A. Coontz and jockey Javier Tavares — a combination that's appeared multiple times today, suggesting a confident barn. A 13% career win rate in the claiming ranks is honest, and the avg speed of 54 gives this horse the tools to sit close to Escovedo and potentially outlast the rest. The 4/1 price looks fair for a horse this likely to hit the board.

show8Cookin the BooksML 9/2

Cookin the Books opens at 9/2 with a 77.61 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win percentage — solid credentials that make this horse a live contender for the exacta and trifecta. Trainer James M. Watkins is active on today's card, and Ademar Santos keeps the horse in capable hands. Behind a dominant favorite, Cookin the Books looks like the most reliable option to round out the exacta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This ten-horse field going a mile and 70 yards features two Scott Becker trainees near the top of the ratings — W W Star and Arky Road — creating a barn bias angle that serious players should factor in.

win6W W StarML 5/2

W W Star draws a 5/2 morning line and posts a 74.15 TrackWiz rating, the top mark in this field, with an 18% career win percentage that's respectable over a route distance. Victor Santiago is aboard, a jockey who's been sharp at this meet, and trainer Scott Becker doubles up in this race with Arky Road — suggesting confidence in the barn's presence at this distance. W W Star's rating edge makes this the logical top selection in what shapes up as a wide-open route.

place7Arky RoadML 3/1

Arky Road is the second Becker runner and comes in at 64.15 on the TrackWiz scale with a 16% career win clip and a 3/1 morning line. Alexander Bendezu handles the riding duties, and having the same trainer sending out both the win and place selections creates a de facto stable entry dynamic — if one fires, there's a good chance the other fires too. At 3/1, Arky Road offers legitimate place value in a wide-open route.

show9RecauseML 20/1

Recause opens at 20/1 on the morning line but carries a 62.29 TrackWiz rating — which is better than six other horses in this field. A 28% career win percentage is the second-best in the race, and Javier Diego has the horse in a field where pace could be complex going longer. The price gap between the morning line and the underlying numbers is significant — Recause is a sneaky live show horse and an interesting trifecta inclusion at big odds.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

5:25 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A large starter optional claiming field at six furlongs sees Strange Arrange take top TrackWiz honors despite going off at 5/1 — while Honor Point's 66% career win percentage commands attention, the rating gap between the two is razor thin.

win6Strange ArrangeML 5/1

Strange Arrange tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and brings a 34% career win percentage into a field where that number stands out. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez also has Honor Point in this race, giving the barn a two-pronged attack, and Johanis Aranguren gets the mount. An avg speed of 55 and the 5/1 morning line represent genuine overlay value — TrackWiz analysis puts this as the top-rated horse, yet the crowd is pricing it behind Honor Point. That's a play.

place9Honor PointML 5/2

Honor Point is the talk of this race with a 66% career win percentage — the highest mark on today's entire card — and a 83.98 TrackWiz rating that runs just behind Strange Arrange. Alexander Bendezu rides for the same Eduardo Rodriguez barn, creating a house-entry situation where either could win. At 5/2, the price reflects the public's love for that win percentage, but the place spot is almost a lock given the talent in this stable.

show2American WarriorML 8/1

American Warrior opens at 8/1 with a 72.13 TrackWiz rating — third-best in a sprawling eleven-horse field — and a 20% career win percentage that's above average for this level. Trainer James M. Watkins has multiple runners on the card today, showing a confident book of business, and Ademar Santos picks up the mount. With two Rodriguez runners likely to split the tote, American Warrior could go off at a price well above deserving — making this a smart show play and trifecta wheel option.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: the heat is on, the dirt should be fast, and there are live horses at multiple price points across all eight races. Start with Khozan's Valentine, Army Medic, and Rock the Birdhouse in the free previews to get your footing, then let TrackWiz Premium guide you through the rest of the card — including our best bets on Escovedo and the full exotic strategy. Good luck out there.

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