Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026

Saturday, July 18, 20268 racesFairmount Park

It's a hot one at Fairmount Park today — literally. Clear skies and 91°F temps are cooking the strip, and if you know anything about summer racing in the Metro East, that means a lightning-fast dirt surface with speed horses loving every inch of it. Eight races are on the board, all on the dirt, and there's plenty to dig into from maiden sprints to allowance optional claiming spots.

The card leans heavily on claiming races, which means class movement is the name of the game today. Spotting who's dropping into a soft spot versus who's been overmatched and is finally finding the right level — that's where the money gets made on a card like this. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the high 50s all the way up to near 90, so there's a clear separation between the standout contenders and the ones we're fading.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint where no horse has a prior win or published speed figure to lean on — TrackWiz ratings are the only compass here, and the separation at the top is real.

win1Rory's RunML 2/1

Rory's Run draws the rail and tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 — a meaningful gap over the rest of a field that's essentially racing blind. Trainer Steve Manley puts him out as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and in a race this unknown, that market confidence matters. Jockey Johanis Aranguren gets the mount, and a clean break from the inside in a short 5-furlong sprint could be all this one needs to wire the field.

place7Gail's GloryML 4/1

Gail's Glory rates second-best among experienced-eye evaluations at 55.00 and draws post 7 with Ademar Santos up for trainer Michael L. Reavis. In a maiden sprint with no prior speed to anchor pace projections, a horse with a double-digit separation from the bottom of the field and a competent rider is exactly the kind of place play you want underneath. If Rory's Run gets pressured early, Gail's Glory could sweep up the pieces.

show5TamorML 9/2

Tamor checks in at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale and is one of two Wainwright runners in the field — always worth noting when a trainer double-enters. Sitting at 9/2 on the morning line, Tamor offers a touch of value for show exotics, and trainer John C. Wainwright clearly has confidence in both entries. Round out your trifecta with this one as a live piece.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A lopsided 6-furlong claiming sprint with a clear class standout at the top, but the real question is whether the heavy morning-line favorite gets outrun by a horse with superior ratings.

win3Via Del CorsoML 2/1

Via Del Corso is the most compelling number in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and a career win percentage of 35% — that's elite-level consistency for a claiming route. The morning line has her at 2/1, which is fair given the presence of Dundie, but the rating edge is substantial. Alexander Bendezu gets the call for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez, and with an average speed figure of 55, she matches the top speed horses in this race stride for stride.

place6DundieML 4/5

Dundie is the public's choice at 4/5 and the win percentage backs up that confidence — 40% lifetime is eye-opening at any level. Trainer Scott Becker sends him out with Johanis Aranguren, who has shown he can get horses to the wire at Fairmount. The 82.50 rating slots just behind Via Del Corso, making Dundie a natural place play if the favorite finds another gear.

show2Verrazano FirstML 9/2

Verrazano First brings a 27% career win rate and an 80.12 TrackWiz rating into this spot — numbers that would top a lot of other fields today. Trainer Pat Clay has a knack for spotting the right spot, and at 9/2 on the morning line, Verrazano First offers genuine show-parlay value. Ademar Santos is a capable pilot and this horse's average speed of 54 keeps pace with the top contenders.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming conditions bring out three horses clustered between 82 and 90 on the TrackWiz scale, setting up a tight three-way battle that could go to post position or pace scenario.

win3Hot DanceML 6/5

Hot Dance dominates this field with a 89.71 rating — the highest mark of any horse in today's card through the first three races. At 6/5 on the morning line, she's a deserving favorite, and trainer Scott Becker has already shown today that he knows how to point a horse. Alexander Bendezu gets the mount, and with a career win rate of 19% in allowance-level competition, Hot Dance brings form that demands respect at 5.5 furlongs.

place5Jet PackML 3/1

Jet Pack sits at 82.71 and carries a 28% career win percentage — the highest in this field — making him a horse who finds the winner's circle regularly when conditions align. Steve Manley sends him out with Ademar Santos, a jockey who's appeared multiple times today with live chances. At 3/1, Jet Pack is a legitimate win threat who makes even more sense as an underneath play in exactas and trifectas.

show4Too Much TuesdayML 7/2

Too Much Tuesday rates 81.98 and has a 21% win rate, making her statistically very close to Jet Pack. Trainer James M. Watkins puts Julio E. Felix in the irons, and this filly's average speed of 54 matches the top horses here. At 7/2, she's the third wheel in a very evenly matched trio, and she absolutely belongs in the show spot of any horizontal bet you're building.

Three races are unlocked for every reader today, and they give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Race 1 kicks things off with maiden special weight action at 5 furlongs — Rory's Run is the morning-line co-favorite at 2/1, though with a TrackWiz rating of 58.33 this is a wide-open maiden race where pace shape matters more than raw ability. In Race 2, Via Del Corso draws our attention in a 6-furlong claimer — an 88.54 rating at 2/1 on the morning line is exactly the kind of overlay situation we love to flag. And in Race 3, the best number of the free trio belongs to Hot Dance, who clocks in at 89.71 and is already the 6/5 chalk in an allowance optional claiming sprint. On a fast, heat-baked surface, a horse with that kind of rating at that distance is worth anchoring your early pick-3 around.

With the track playing quick today, front-runners and horses with tactical speed are getting a natural edge. All three free-race top picks fit that profile — keep an eye on pace in the early going and don't overthink it.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Recause looks like a lone standout in an otherwise muddled 6-furlong claiming field — the real betting interest is in figuring out who fills out the exotics behind a heavy implied favorite.

win8RecauseML 9/5

Recause is the class of this field, full stop — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win percentage in what shapes up as a wide-open claiming event. Trainer John C. Wainwright sends out Javier Diego, and the 9/5 morning line likely understates the margin over the next-best horse by quite a bit. An average speed figure of 54 matches the top competitors, but the rating gap says this horse should dominate.

place1Red SpeedoML 5/2

Red Speedo has a clean 20% career win rate and a 61.80 rating that comfortably clears the middle tier of this field. Victor Lara picks up the mount for Harry E. Lynch, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Red Speedo is the logical choice to collect a check behind the dominant Recause. His 54 average speed holds up in this company.

show3After My BrotherML 4/1

After My Brother brings a 61.04 rating that nearly mirrors Red Speedo's, making him an interesting show play at 4/1 morning line odds. The career win percentage of 6% gives some pause, but trainer Gene J. Sandrowski slots him into a spot where the class bar isn't terribly high. Javier Tavares is an experienced hand who can nurse a horse into a board finish even when the wins are harder to come by.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Route racing at a mile and 70 yards over the Fairmount dirt, and American Cause sets up as a clear standout — but Redfield at a short price makes the win pool a tricky investment.

win2American CauseML 3/1

American Cause leads all runners in this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a stellar 25% career win percentage. Trainer Pat Clay sends out Ademar Santos, a rider who has multiple confident mounts tonight, and the 3/1 morning line actually offers some value given how far ahead the rating is from the third horse. The main caveat is an average speed of 52, which trails Bureau's 55 — pace could be a factor going a route, so Santos will want to stalk rather than chase.

place4RedfieldML 9/5

Redfield sits second in the ratings at 75.45 and is the morning-line co-favorite at 9/5 — lower odds than American Cause's top rating might suggest he deserves, which makes him more interesting underneath. Trainer James M. Watkins keeps Javier Diego on board, and his 19% win rate is solid. If American Cause takes back early and faces traffic, Redfield could easily be the one getting his nose in front.

show1BureauML 5/1

Bureau is worth a look in the show spot at 5/1, even though his 68.96 rating trails the top two. What's interesting is that Bureau has the highest average speed in the field at 55 — that's a figure that can matter over a route distance if he can rate behind a fast early pace and close late. Fernando Bahena trains him and Frank Reyes gets the call; at 5/1 on the morning line, Bureau is a genuine value inclusion for trifecta coverage.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Roussette goes off as the even-money morning-line favorite in a nine-horse mile-and-70 field that's fairly weak at the top — but two horses in the middle of the pack have ratings nearly as high and offer far more value.

win7RoussetteML EVN

Roussette tops the TrackWiz ratings at 70.41 in what is clearly not a deep field, and the even-money morning line reflects the bookmakers' agreement. Trainer James M. Watkins has shown strong form tonight and Ademar Santos, who has been busy with live mounts, pilots this one. A 53 average speed and a 15% win rate are nothing flashy, but in this group, consistency is enough to be the standout.

place5Aspiring ComedianML 8/1

Aspiring Comedian is the value play here — a 62.32 rating at 8/1 on the morning line is a significant disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags immediately. Trainer Mark W. Anderson puts Harold Joseph Ortega on board, and while the 8% career win rate is modest, the rating is only 8 points off the favorite's mark. If you're building a vertical bet, Aspiring Comedian at those odds is exactly the kind of place horse that pays.

show9Wicked SkyML 20/1

Wicked Sky at 20/1 is a pure overlay if the rating holds any predictive value — a 62.29 mark is essentially identical to Aspiring Comedian's, yet the public is pricing this horse as a throw-out. Trainer John C. Wainwright, who has had a busy night directing horses into the right spots, puts Alexander Bendezu in the irons. A 52 average speed is in line with the field, and at 20/1, even a small show ticket on Wicked Sky in the trifecta could pay handsomely.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Earl's Outlaw arrives with a speed figure that jumps off the page — the allowance optional claiming conditions bring together some competitive horses, but one runner's average speed is in a different zip code entirely.

win8Earl's OutlawML 7/2

Earl's Outlaw is the most compelling speed-figure profile on tonight's entire card — an average speed of 58 is three ticks clear of the next-best horse in any race today, and that kind of separation at a six-furlong allowance trip is significant. His 86.35 TrackWiz rating backs it up, and a 25% career win percentage says he converts when he's right. Trainer Gabe Retana sends him out at 7/2, and Javier Tavares takes the mount on a horse that looks primed to wire this field.

place5Illini RedML 6/1

Illini Red rates at 61.16 and shows a 16% career win percentage for trainer Steve Manley, who has had a productive card tonight. At 6/1, he's an interesting place play on a horse who benefits if Earl's Outlaw gets shuffled or takes back early — Johanis Aranguren rides, and he's been sharp tonight. The average speed of 53 keeps him competitive with the mid-range of this field.

show7Fight the PowerML 3/2

Fight the Power is the morning-line second choice at 3/2 and carries the second-best speed average in the field at 55 — only Earl's Outlaw is faster on paper. A 50% career win rate is extraordinary and not something you see very often; the issue is that the 59.17 rating trails Earl's Outlaw by a wide margin. That disconnect between win rate and rating suggests maybe a class ceiling, but as a show play in a race dominated by two horses, Fight the Power is a logical hedge.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse maiden claiming sprint to close out the card — Belleinthetemple stands head-and-shoulders above this group on ratings and could be a tremendous value at 6/1 on the morning line.

win8BelleinthetempleML 6/1

Belleinthetemple has an 82.71 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best horse — Elsie's Legacy — sits nearly 25 points lower. That kind of gap in a maiden claiming event is unusual and makes this horse a strong best bet despite being in the toughest position to evaluate (no career wins, no benchmark). Trainer Ralph Martinez puts Ademar Santos on board, and Santos has had his hands full with live mounts all night. The 6/1 morning line is frankly generous for a horse who rates this far clear of the competition.

place7Elsie's LegacyML 3/1

Elsie's Legacy checks in at 58.00 with Victor Lara picking up the mount for Eddie M. Essenpreis. The 3/1 morning line reflects public respect, and as the clear second choice on ratings, she's the natural place play behind Belleinthetemple. An average speed of 52 matches the bulk of this field, and in a twelve-horse maiden claimer, anything can happen — Elsie's Legacy has the profile to benefit if chaos unfolds.

show2Our JujuML 4/1

Our Juju carries a 55.00 TrackWiz rating and draws post 2 with Cory Orm up for trainer Tammy Hornsby. An average speed of 52 and a clean outside look from the inside part of the gate gives this mare a tactical edge. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's worth plugging into trifecta and superfecta combos as a show piece, especially in a double-digit field where value can surface anywhere.

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Bottom line: Hot Dance is the standout of the free plays, Via Del Corso is the value angle worth watching, and the premium side of today's card — headlined by Earl's Outlaw and a fascinating pair of route races — has the makings of a strong Pick 4 sequence. It's a hot summer Saturday at Fairmount, and the track is set up to reward good handicapping. Unlock the full card at TrackWiz Premium and let's make it count.

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