Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 20268 racesFairmount Park

Fairmount Park is open for business on a rainy Saturday, and the weather is already doing its part to make things interesting. With the thermometer sitting at 77°F and steady rain falling, expect a sealed or sloppy dirt surface throughout the day — and that changes everything from pace dynamics to class performance.

Eight races are on the slate, ranging from Maiden Special Weight sprints to a mile-and-a-sixteenth Allowance Optional Claiming closer. The full card mixes maiden ranks with claimers and allowance company, giving bettors plenty of angles to attack across multiple bet types.

Track bias on a wet Fairmount surface tends to favor horses that can get out to an early lead or sit just off the pace — closers who rely on a dry, sealed strip often come up short here when the footing is compromised. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets today.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going a route of ground, with two well-rated horses at short prices setting up a potential pace duel and leaving a gap for the third-rated runner to sneak into the exotics.

win4Hang TuffML 8/5

Hang Tuff draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 89.12, and the morning line of 8/5 reflects the public's confidence. Alexander Bendezu is in the irons, and this trainer-jockey combination carries real weight in maiden ranks at Fairmount. In a first-time-starter field where averages blur together, that rating edge is significant — Hang Tuff looks like the one to beat.

place7Big SkookumML 9/5

Big Skookum comes in right behind at an 84.31 rating and is another well-regarded first-timer at 9/5 on the morning line. With Alvin Ortiz riding for trainer Clay Laux, there's a professional setup here that suggests this horse is ready to run. The gap between Big Skookum and the rest of the field is wide enough to make a place ticket feel comfortable.

show6My PatriotML 3/1

My Patriot at 3/1 represents solid third-tier value in a race where everything below the top two drops off sharply. Ricardo Jaime takes the mount for trainer Fernando Bahena, and with a 60.64 rating — well clear of the mid-pack cluster — My Patriot is a logical show play and a worthwhile exotic include.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Summer of Mischief figures to be a dominant 4/5 favorite in this six-furlong claimer, but there's a legitimate pace scenario that could leave the door open for the closers sitting just behind.

win6Summer of MischiefML 4/5

Summer of Mischief tops the TrackWiz ratings at a clean 90.0, and trainer Scott Becker sends her out with Alexander Bendezu aboard — one of the more reliable rider-trainer combos on this card. Her 11% career win rate might catch the eye, but ratings-based analysis favors overall form shape over raw win percentage in claiming ranks, and she's simply the class of this field on today's numbers.

place5Looks Lucky to MeML 9/2

Looks Lucky to Me opens at 9/2 with a 69.76 rating and a 17% career win rate, making her one of the stronger pace-to-pace threats in the field. Trainer Ralph Martinez keeps Ademar Santos on board, and if Summer of Mischief faces any pressure up front, this one has the profile to benefit and grab the place. At 9/2, there's real value in the exotics here.

show7StagflationML 4/1

Stagflation rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 66.4 and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line with Johanis Aranguren riding for Ralph Martinez — same barn as Looks Lucky to Me, which makes the pace scenario even more interesting. A 15% career win rate and consistent speed figures at this level make Stagflation a solid show play and a natural trifecta piece.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ornery Angel is the heavy morning-line favorite at 6/5 in this five-and-a-half furlong claimer, but TrackWiz analysis flags a significant value play lurking at 12/1 that could challenge on the pace.

win4Ornery AngelML 6/5

Ornery Angel carries the top rating in the race at 77.49 and comes in at 6/5 on the morning line, reflecting a field that respects her edge. Trainer Maximino Quinonez has Alexander Bendezu up, a combination that's appeared multiple times on this card and keeps producing — Bendezu is clearly the meet's go-to pilot. With a 21% career win rate and steady speed figures, this is a horse that knows how to win.

place2Anna After MidniteML 12/1

Anna After Midnite is the standout value angle on this race. She carries a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — just four ticks behind the favorite — and yet the morning line opens her at a generous 12/1. That kind of pricing disconnect is what TrackWiz analysis is built to find. Javier Tavares rides for Frank C. Randazzo, Jr., and her 11% career win rate doesn't scare us off at those odds.

show5TapicitaML 7/2

Tapicita slots in at 67.07 on our ratings with an 18% career win rate, suggesting a horse that's been competitive in spots. Ademar Santos takes the mount for trainer Mike Durham at 7/2 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse with consistent enough figures to hit the board in a field where the pace could get hot up front.

Our three free races open the card and they're a solid cross-section of what today offers. Hang Tuff (Race 1, 8/5 ML) tops our ratings in a mile-plus Maiden Special Weight, carrying an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the kind of number that stands out in a maiden field on a surface that rewards horses with tactical flexibility. In Race 2, Summer of Mischief earns a field-best 90.0 rating and projects as the morning-line favorite at 4/5, so the conversation there shifts quickly to value and exacta construction rather than win-betting. Ornery Angel closes out the free picks in Race 3 at 6/5 — another lukewarm price, but the rating supports the morning line.

The wet track is the throughline connecting all three. Horses at Fairmount that can control their own destiny early — or sit within striking distance without expending extra energy in slop — are the ones worth leaning on. All three of our free picks show profiles that suit today's conditions. Start there and use them as anchors before building into the premium portion of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This five-and-a-half furlong claimer features a tight battle at the top between two well-rated horses — the morning-line favorite Escovedo and a lightly priced rival that TrackWiz analysis leans toward as the better win bet.

win2Thirsty NatalieML 5/2

Thirsty Natalie opens at 5/2 and posts an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that actually edges out the morning-line favorite Escovedo. Trainer Steve Manley sends out Johanis Aranguren, and while a 14% career win rate isn't flashy, the overall form profile here is strong. The fact that she's going off at a longer price than a horse with a lower rating is the kind of discrepancy we look to exploit.

place7EscovedoML 4/5

Escovedo is the 4/5 morning-line chalk with an 85.24 rating and the highest career win rate in the field at 28% — you don't ignore a horse with that kind of finishing record. Alexander Bendezu, the meet's standout jockey, is aboard for Maximino Quinonez. Escovedo's best speed figure of 55 is also the top average in the field, which keeps him firmly in the picture even as a place pick.

show4Cocktail CutieML 8/1

Cocktail Cutie sits at 8/1 on the morning line with a 59.46 rating, making her the third-rated horse in a race where the top two are close together. Victor Lara rides for Steve Manley — same trainer as our win pick Thirsty Natalie — and while a 6% career win rate flags inconsistency, the show position is a realistic target in a speed-heavy field where pace could collapse the front runners.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide allowance optional claiming field at six furlongs where two horses rated well above the rest create a clear top tier, while a 12/1 shot hides a strong enough rating to make the exotics interesting.

win8He GoneML 8/5

He Gone tops the TrackWiz ratings at 81.62 and carries the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — a meaningful edge in a field where most runners cluster at 53-54. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez deploys Johanis Aranguren, and a 22% career win rate tells you this horse is used to competing and converting. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price is tight but the form justifies the confidence.

place5On the Money RedML 12/1

On the Money Red is the value gem in this race. A 73.96 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in the field, yet the morning line opens at 12/1 — that's a significant mispricing if our numbers hold. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount for trainer Gabe Retana, and a 14% career win rate in an allowance field isn't alarming at all. This is a prime exacta wheel candidate.

show7Jimmies Big DayML 9/5

Jimmies Big Day sits just below On the Money Red at 71.15 on the TrackWiz scale with a matching 22% career win rate and a 54 speed figure. Julio E. Felix rides for Steve Manley at 9/5 on the morning line, and the combination of consistent speed figures and solid win percentage makes this horse a natural show play and third leg in vertical exotics.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs of maiden special weight action for what appears to be a first-out-heavy field, with one horse standing well above the pack in the ratings and a pair of value alternatives that make the exacta worth constructing.

win7Eerie's SongML 4/1

Eerie's Song draws a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by more than 11 points — and yet comes in at a workable 4/1 on the morning line. Reynier Arrieta rides for trainer Ralph Martinez, and with a 54 average speed figure in a maiden field where several runners have no available figures at all, the edge is real. This is the kind of maiden where a clear ratings advantage tends to hold up.

place2I'm Thisty KidML 3/1

I'm Thisty Kid checks in at 74.39 and opens at 3/1 — right at the top of the morning-line pricing despite not being our top pick, which suggests the public likes this one. Victor Lara rides for Harry E. Lynch, and the form profile suggests a horse ready to compete at this level. As a place pick, the combination of a strong rating and a trainer who's been active on this card makes the ticket worthwhile.

show5Delong ShotML 8/1

Delong Shot at 8/1 is the third-rated horse in the field at 70.56 and represents a nice show price for what our numbers say is a legitimate contender. Javier Diego rides for trainer Ben Delong — a name-horse connection that sometimes signals a motivated effort. In a maiden field where the top three are separated from the pack, Delong Shot is a natural include in trifectas at a price that adds value.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The evening's route race comes up as one of the most interesting handicapping puzzles on the card — the morning-line favorite carries only the fourth-best TrackWiz rating, opening up real opportunity for overlays.

win3Jack SpratML 8/1

Jack Sprat tops our ratings at 79.79 despite opening at 8/1 on the morning line, which is a significant disconnect that jumps off the page. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends him out with Ademar Santos, and a 19% career win rate at a mile-plus distance suggests a horse that knows how to grind through a route. At 8/1, this is the kind of overlay win bet that can make a night at the track very profitable.

place6Fire BryanML 3/1

Fire Bryan rates second in the field at 74.48 and opens at 3/1, making him one of the fairer-priced horses in the race. Ricardo Jaime takes the mount for Fernando Bahena, and a 14% career win rate in allowance company is respectable at this level. If the pace sets up for closers over 1 1/16 miles, Fire Bryan's profile positions him well to pick up the place.

show1StropeML 12/1

Strope at 12/1 is a compelling show play with a 62.26 rating and a solid 17% career win rate. Trainer John C. Wainwright puts Javier Diego aboard, and with consistent 54 average speed figures over routes, this is a horse that knows the distance. At double-digit odds, a show ticket here is strong value — and Strope is worth a piece of the trifecta as well.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing starter allowance is a loaded, ten-horse affair at six furlongs with three horses rated above 82 on the TrackWiz scale — including our top pick at 6/1 who outrates the morning-line favorite on the numbers.

win9Excellent EmpireML 6/1

Excellent Empire posts an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and yet opens at 6/1 while Strange Arrange is the 6/5 chalk. That's a notable pricing inversion worth betting into. Angel Ortega Stanley rides for Ralph Martinez, and a 33% career win rate is the kind of number you don't overlook in a starter allowance field. A 54 average speed figure is consistent with what it takes to win at this level at Fairmount.

place2Strange ArrangeML 6/5

Strange Arrange is only a tick behind at 82.52 and carries a matching 33% career win rate — which is actually quite strong for a horse at this class level. Johanis Aranguren is up for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez, and a 56 average speed figure is the best in the field. Even as a place pick rather than the top selection, Strange Arrange is clearly dangerous and needs to be in every exotic combination.

show5Smart JokerML 6/1

Smart Joker at 6/1 rates third in the field at 78.55 with an 18% career win rate, and Cory Orm takes the mount for James M. Watkins. In a race where the top three are tightly bunched between 78 and 82 on our ratings, Smart Joker figures to be competitive throughout and hit the board regularly at this price. A solid trifecta anchor and a show bet worth making.

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Bottom line: a rain-soaked Fairmount card with eight races, a mix of favorites and live longshots, and a surface that rewards smart handicapping. Start with Hang Tuff, Summer of Mischief, and Ornery Angel in the free races, then let TrackWiz subscribers' full card analysis do the heavy lifting for Races 4–8. The value is out there today — you just have to know where to look. Full breakdowns available at /pricing.

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