Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — July 14, 2026

Tuesday, July 14, 20268 racesFairmount Park

It's a hot one at Fairmount Park this Tuesday — clear skies, 88 degrees, and a full 8-race dirt card laid out for your afternoon. The heat has been baking this strip all week, and a fast, sealed surface tends to reward horses that can get to the lead and dictate their own pace. Keep that in mind as you work through the card.

Today's program leans heavily maiden claiming early before stepping up to allowance optional claiming and a starter allowance feature in Race 7. That means we've got a nice mix of raw upside from the maidens and some genuine class questions in the upper half of the card — exactly the kind of card where sharp handicapping can find real edge.

TrackWiz has ratings on every runner in the field. Three races are available to all readers today, with the full premium breakdown covering the back five races — including the two allowance optional claiming tests and that juicy 8-horse stretch in Race 8.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where the morning-line favorite is being challenged by a pair of intriguing runners whose TrackWiz ratings suggest the chalk is undervalued and the real threat comes from the outside.

win9AtraxaML 8/1

Atraxa draws the 9-hole but owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 71.38, a meaningful gap above the rest of this maiden claiming field. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez sends her out with Alexander Bendezu in the irons, a solid connection for this 5½-furlong sprint on the Fairmount dirt. She's posted an average speed figure of 53, which is competitive here, and our analysis believes she's more capable than her 8/1 morning line suggests — that's your value entry point in this race.

place6TizswiftysmusicML EVN

Tizswiftysmusic is the morning-line favorite at even money and holds a TrackWiz rating of 64.51 — second-best in the field. Javier Tavares gets the call for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and with an average speed figure of 53, this filly has the pace profile to be involved from the jump in a 5½-furlong dash. If she can't quite get to Atraxa, she's a very comfortable place ticket.

show2True EffectML 4/1

True Effect opens at 4/1 and carries the third-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 55.00, making her a logical exotics inclusion despite the blank speed figure — some first-time starters or lightly raced runners simply don't have published figures yet. Trainer Jada C. Schlenk and jockey Harold Joseph Ortega give this one a capable professional battery, and at 4/1 she rounds out a show parlay nicely.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This mile-plus claiming route features two horses — Jet Flight and Electric Charge — separated by barely a point in TrackWiz ratings, setting up a likely duel between the top two that could leave the favorite Tapinyourbluejeans on the outside looking in.

win3Jet FlightML EVN

Jet Flight tops our ratings at 83.79 and comes in at even money on the morning line, a price that accurately reflects how good this horse looks on paper for trainer Harold Mosier. A 20% career win rate is legitimately strong for this level, and Harold Joseph Ortega — a jockey who knows the Fairmount oval — gets the mount for the 1 mile 70-yard route. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the best in this field, and TrackWiz analysis sees him as the one to beat.

place1Electric ChargeML 6/1

Electric Charge comes in at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — just a whisker behind Jet Flight — which makes this a genuine overlay at that price. Trainer Maximino Quinonez sends him out with Frank Reyes, and while the 8% career win rate is modest, the raw rating suggests the form lines are clicking in this prep. If Jet Flight hits any trouble in a route race, Electric Charge is right there to collect.

show6TapinyourbluejeansML 8/5

Tapinyourbluejeans is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and has a 25% career win rate, which is the best in the field and not something to dismiss. Trainer Ralph Martinez keeps it in the family with Brody Martinez up, and that tight-knit barn connection often produces sharp efforts. Her TrackWiz rating of 67.40 lags behind the top two, but at 8/5 she's a logical show-ticket anchor if the race sets up as a grind.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Averyz Day stands out as a dominant top-rated runner in a maiden claimer that otherwise looks competitive between a pair of Scott Becker trainees, making this a potential single in exotics but not a race to get too cute with.

win7Averyz DayML 8/5

Averyz Day owns a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — a full 30 points clear of most of this field — and opens at 8/5 on the morning line, which is actually a fair price given how thoroughly she towers over these maidens. Victor Lara picks up the mount for trainer Harry E. Lynch over 6 furlongs of Fairmount dirt, a distance that suits most sprinting maidens in this class range. Her average speed figure of 52 is competitive, and our analysis marks her as a standout in a race where the distance between first and second is substantial.

place6Soul KeeperML 9/5

Soul Keeper checks in at 9/5 and holds a 58.67 TrackWiz rating, making her the clear second choice in both the market and our model. Trainer Scott Becker saddles her with Johanis Aranguren, and while there's no published speed figure to lean on, the rating suggests she has raw ability that hasn't fully translated to the clock yet. At near-even money, she's pricey for a place bet but the logical second wheel in exotics.

show4IncorporatedML 8/1

Incorporated comes in at 8/1 morning line with a 58.48 rating — nearly identical to Soul Keeper's — and represents genuine value in the exotics at a much bigger price. Trainer Omar Razvi sends him out with Harold Joseph Ortega, and the 53 average speed figure is respectable for this level. If Soul Keeper falters, Incorporated slots neatly into the third spot and pays much better.

The three free races give you a solid foundation to start the day. Race 1 opens things up with a maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, and our ratings have Atraxa as the top selection at a generous 8/1 morning line — that's the kind of price discrepancy we love to highlight. Race 2 stretches out to a mile and 70 yards, where Jet Flight goes off as the even-money favorite and earns it with an 83.79 TrackWiz rating. Then in Race 3, Averyz Day (8/5 ML) is the standout of the early card with the highest free-race rating at 89.12 — she looks like the horse to beat in that 6-furlong maiden claimer.

One angle to watch across all three: on a hot, fast Fairmount dirt track, pace setters with early speed have been holding on. If any of your top picks can get a clean trip to the front, the conditions today set them up well. Don't overthink the pace dynamics in the maiden fields — position matters more than usual when the track is this lively.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Free Choice looks like a dominant single in this maiden claimer, posting a 90 TrackWiz rating that towers over the field — the real question is whether Hunts Promise or Last Call Geno can mount any kind of challenge for the minors.

win4Free ChoiceML 4/5

Free Choice draws the 4-post at 4/5 and carries a 90.00 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse in this race by a wide margin. Trainer Ralph Martinez has Brody Martinez aboard, keeping a sharp family connection that we've seen produce results throughout this card. She's posting an average speed figure of 53 with a profile that screams class dominance at this maiden claiming level over 6 furlongs — she should be on every ticket.

place3Hunts PromiseML 2/1

Hunts Promise opens at 2/1 with a 60.03 TrackWiz rating and looks like the clear second option in a race that may effectively be a two-horse show from the gate. Victor Lara takes the mount for trainer Harry E. Lynch, who also saddles McMoney in Race 7, showing strong barn activity on the card. The 53 average speed figure gives her the pace credentials to track down Free Choice if anything goes wrong up front.

show6Last Call GenoML 4/1

Last Call Geno is a 4/1 shot with a TrackWiz rating of 55.00 — a notch below the top two but comfortably ahead of the rest of the field. Trainer Steve Manley sends her out with Johanis Aranguren for this 6-furlong maiden claimer, and an average speed figure of 52 keeps her in the conversation for the minor awards. At 4/1 she's the right price for a show bet or a trifecta footer.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Indyville is being bet down to near-chalk territory, but TrackWiz analysis has uncovered a meaningful value play in Volodymyr Z, whose ratings and career win percentage make him the most dangerous price on the board.

win4Volodymyr ZML 6/1

Volodymyr Z opens at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — actually the highest in this allowance optional claiming field — and carries a staggering 40% career win rate that demands respect at this odds level. Trainer Scott Becker puts Travis Wales up for the 6-furlong sprint, and an average speed figure of 54 gives him a legitimate edge in the pace department. Our analysis sees this as the best value play on the entire card — a horse rated above the public's choice at more than triple the odds.

place2IndyvilleML 2/5

Indyville is the 2/5 morning-line choice with a 27% career win rate and a 72.54 TrackWiz rating — strong credentials, but her odds are going to be ugly at the windows. Trainer Michele Boyce has Ademar Santos up, and that 55 average speed figure is the best in the field, suggesting she can put away pace pressure in a hurry. She's the logical place ticket if you're playing against her to win.

show5Bikini MartiniML 7/2

Bikini Martini opens at 7/2 with a 72.25 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate, giving her a well-rounded profile for an allowance field at this level. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis hands the reins to Johanis Aranguren, and the 54 average speed figure matches Volodymyr Z stride for stride through the early fractions. She's the show-ticket closer who can mop up if the top two kick clear and leave some daylight.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine runners create a genuinely complicated allowance optional claiming route where the ratings cluster tightly near the top, making this a pace-sensitive race where post position and trip could matter as much as raw ability.

win1Raz On FireML 4/1

Raz On Fire draws the rail at 4/1 and tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.87 in a field where the spread between first and fifth is surprisingly tight. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends him out with Ademar Santos, and a 10% career win rate understates what the raw rating is showing — this horse is running well and may be coming into his best form. Over a mile on Fairmount dirt, the inside draw is advantageous if he can settle into good position early.

place2TryML 7/2

Try opens at 7/2 with a 76.99 TrackWiz rating and is lightly raced from a win-percentage standpoint at just 5%, suggesting there's still improvement on the table. Trainer John C. Wainwright deploys Emmanuel Giles, and a 52 average speed figure puts him right in the middle of the pack from a pace perspective — the type who can stalk and pounce in a one-mile trip. He's our place horse because he'll likely be hovering near the top of the stretch with a chance.

show5Lucky MonicaML 6/1

Lucky Monica is 6/1 with a 74.79 TrackWiz rating and a 9% career win rate, but this is a horse whose figure profile in a 9-runner field makes her a legitimate show-ticket asset. Trainer Scott Becker keeps Victor Santiago in the irons, and while the 51 average speed figure is the lowest among our top picks, she has a history of running consistent races. At 6/1 she offers show value that far exceeds her risk in exotics.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Swiss Guard stands tall in a starter allowance at 1⅛ miles, but the field is deeper than it looks — McMoney at 9/5 is a legitimate threat, and Gold Smoke at 8/1 could be the price of the race.

win3Swiss GuardML 5/2

Swiss Guard carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and opens at a reasonable 5/2 for trainer Steve Manley, who puts Ademar Santos up for the 1⅛-mile test. A 17% career win rate might sound modest, but at this distance over Fairmount dirt, consistency and stamina matter more than flashy numbers — and this horse has both. Our model has him as a clear top selection, and the price is fair enough that there's no reason to look away.

place5Gold SmokeML 8/1

Gold Smoke is the value play of this race at 8/1, posting a 62.41 TrackWiz rating with a 22% career win rate that's among the best in the field. Trainer Dennis Higgins sends Julio E. Felix out for what shapes up as a two-turn route where pace scenarios can surprise — and a 22% win rate suggests Gold Smoke knows how to finish. At 8/1, he's the type of place horse that makes your exacta payoff look very healthy.

show7McMoneyML 9/5

McMoney is the second choice at 9/5 with a 21% career win rate and a 58.15 TrackWiz rating, pairing Victor Lara with trainer Harry E. Lynch — an active barn on this card. He's a logical show selection based on public respect and career consistency, though our analysis places him third behind Swiss Guard and the underrated Gold Smoke. He anchors the trifecta footer nicely.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full and competitive 12-horse claiming sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated runners — South of Birminham and Grace Met Cupid — diverge sharply in morning-line odds, setting up one of the better value spots on the card.

win3South of BirminhamML 6/1

South of Birminham opens at 6/1 and tops our TrackWiz ratings in this race at 82.71 — the same number that powered Volodymyr Z to our win pick in Race 5. Trainer Gene J. Sandrowski sends Javier Tavares to the gate in a 12-horse claiming sprint over 6 furlongs, and an average speed figure of 53 keeps this horse right in the pace conversation from the break. At 6/1, this is a flat-out overlay when the morning-line favorite is rated nearly 3 points lower.

place11Grace Met CupidML 4/5

Grace Met Cupid is the 4/5 favorite with a 79.55 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate, and trainer Ralph Martinez keeps Brody Martinez in the irons for what should be a sharp effort. She rates second in our model and will likely be the pari-mutuel choice, but at odds that short she's better deployed as a place anchor than a win bet. If South of Birminham gets to her, she's still almost certainly running second.

show10Tower Grove ParkML 6/1

Tower Grove Park is 6/1 with a 71.25 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate — a legitimate third in a field where the top two are clearly separated from the rest. Trainer Scott Becker puts Alexander Bendezu up, and a 52 average speed figure positions him as a mid-pace tracker who can close into a thinning field late. The show price should be generous in a 12-horse field, and he's the right selection to round out your trifectas.

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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: Averyz Day is the early card standout, Atraxa offers genuine 8/1 value in the opener, and the premium half of the card is loaded with pace scenarios and exotic opportunities worth digging into. It's a hot, fast afternoon on a track that should reward speed — play accordingly. Grab the full analysis at TrackWiz Premium and head into post time with confidence. Good luck out there.

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