Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — June 27, 2026

Saturday, June 27, 20267 racesFairmount Park

It's a wet one at Fairmount Park today. Rain is falling on a warm 81°F afternoon, and that means the dirt is playing differently than a typical summer Saturday. Wet tracks at Fairmount have a way of compressing the pace, rewarding horses with tactical speed and strong late kicks — and our TrackWiz models have flagged several spots where the mud could be a real game-changer.

Seven races are on the board, stretching from short sprints at 5½ furlongs all the way out to a route at 1 mile and 70 yards. The card mixes maiden events, claimers, and allowance company, giving us a nice range of competitive scenarios to dig into. Whether you're here for the first race or the full card, there's plenty to get excited about.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight with a dominant standout at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, but a handful of lightly-raced unknowns make the underneath spots intriguing for exotic players.

win6Earl's OutlawML 6/5

Earl's Outlaw is the clear class of this field on paper — a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 towers over everyone else in this maiden special weight, and trainer Gabe Retana sends him out as the 6/5 morning-line favorite for good reason. He's posted an average speed figure of 54, the highest in the field alongside Lies N Deception and Summer Cyclone. Jockey Javier Tavares gets the call, and the combination of top rating plus competitive speed figures makes Earl's Outlaw the straightforward win selection here. In maiden ranks, a horse this far ahead of the field on the numbers is worth trusting at any price.

place9Lies N DeceptionML 10/1

Lies N Deception is an interesting underneath play at 10/1 on the morning line — a massive overlay if she runs to her TrackWiz rating of 60.45. She matches Earl's Outlaw on average speed (53) and is stabled with the same trainer, Gabe Retana, who clearly has live ammunition in this race. At double-digit odds, she's a legitimate value piece in exactas and trifectas.

show5KarazestML 3/1

Karazest checks in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure, giving her legitimate credentials to factor in the show spot. Trainer Scott Becker is represented twice in this field, which suggests stable confidence, and jockey Alexander Bendezu is a capable hand. She's not flashy, but in a maiden race with several unknowns, she's a sensible anchor for the third spot in your exotic tickets.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claimer with a fascinating split between the morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse — the public will lean one way while our analysis points another.

win6American WarriorML 4/1

American Warrior leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — notably higher than morning-line chalk Sweet La Crema — and posts a strong 21% career win rate with an average speed figure of 55. Trainer James M. Watkins saddles him and also has Chryso Alogo in the race, suggesting the barn has a strong book here. At 4/1 on the morning line, American Warrior offers genuine value relative to his ratings edge, making him a compelling top play in what could be a sharp play against the public's preferred choice.

place2Sweet La CremaML 3/2

Sweet La Crema is the public's pick at 3/2 and backs it up with a 27% career win rate — one of the better marks in this field. Her TrackWiz rating of 78.47 is legitimate, and an average speed figure of 55 ties the field's best. Even if she can't hold off American Warrior, she's built to be competitive through the wire and is a natural place play in any exacta combination.

show4Chryso AlogoML 7/2

Chryso Alogo brings a 67.0 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win percentage to the table, and she's the second Watkins trainee in this race — never ignore a trainer who doubles up, because both horses often run their best. At 7/2 on the morning line, she offers fair value in the show slot and gives you a third leg for a trifecta box with horses you already like.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse don't match up in this allowance optional claimer, setting up a classic case of public money versus analytical edge.

win6DiamondoniceML 7/2

Diamondonice paces the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a solid 25% career win rate, yet she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line — well below the public's two top choices. Trainer Frank C. Randazzo, Jr. puts Alexander Bendezu aboard, a jockey who's appeared multiple times on this card and figures to be in good form. The combination of top rating, respectable speed figures (54 average), and underdog odds makes Diamondonice the most compelling win play on the ticket in Race 3.

place1Wildwood RubenML 6/1

Wildwood Ruben may be the most underrated horse on this card at 6/1 morning line — his TrackWiz rating of 69.73 is second only to Diamondonice, and his 29% career win rate is the best in this field. Trainer Scott Becker has multiple runners on today's card and clearly likes where Wildwood Ruben sits. If Diamondonice gets caught wide or traffic trouble strikes, Ruben is positioned to benefit and hit the board.

show5BureauML 5/1

Bureau comes in at 5/1 with a 56.85 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate, sitting mid-pack in a field where the top two are well-separated. Trainer Jessica Jelinski keeps him competitive and jockey Javier Tavares gives him a competent pilot. He's not a horse you'd build a ticket around, but as a show hedge or trifecta filler at a fair price, he makes sense.

The first three races are on the house, and they set up beautifully under today's wet conditions. Earl's Outlaw opens the card in the Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs — our top-rated horse of the day with an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — and figures to be controlling this race early. In Race 2, American Warrior is a sneaky 4/1 morning line in the Starter Optional Claiming, and value plays at that price in soft-track sprints are exactly the kind of angle our models love. Diamondonice rounds out the free card in Race 3's Allowance Optional Claiming, posting an 86.35 rating and a 7/2 line that looks workable if the pace sets up right.

One thread connecting all three free races: each is a 6-furlong sprint on a dirt surface likely to be sloppy or muddy by post time. Watch for horses that have previously run well on off tracks — that wet-surface form could be the separator between our top picks and the field today.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Larry Rivelli doubles up with the top two TrackWiz-rated horses in this allowance optional claimer, creating a rare barn-dominance setup where the real question is which Rivelli horse leads the other home.

win1Disguised DevilML 6/5

Disguised Devil carries a 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the joint-highest on the entire card today — along with a sterling 30% career win rate that says this horse knows how to win races. Alexander Bendezu gets the mount, a jockey who's been busy all card. At 6/5 on the morning line, the price isn't exciting, but the credentials absolutely are — Rivelli barn, top rating, best win percentage in the field, and a sharp jockey. Sometimes the horse the public loves is simply the right horse.

place5LalyML 5/1

Laly is the sneaky play underneath at 5/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 80.42 and a 23% career win rate are both legitimate, and she's another Kirby-trained runner which gives her a solid foundation. Her average speed figure of 55 matches the top performers in this field. In an exacta or quinella with Disguised Devil, Laly at 5/1 on the morning line represents real value.

show4SmokedML 3/2

Smoked brings the field's second-best career win rate at 33% — that's a horse who finds the winner's circle consistently — and a TrackWiz rating of 75.88 backs it up. Trainer Larry Rivelli also saddles Disguised Devil, meaning the barn has two strong chances. At 3/2 on the morning line, Smoked might go off short, but he's a legitimate trifecta anchor who rarely runs embarrassing races.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming mile with several horses who have shown little career success, but a handful of form-cycle contenders make this one of the most pick-apart races on the card.

win8Pete's LegacyML 6/1

Pete's Legacy posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 and pairs it with an average speed figure of 53 — tied for best in this field with Lake of Fire. The 6/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse rated this far above the crowd, and trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis sends him out with Reynier Arrieta in the irons. In longer dirt routes at the claiming level, horses with superior speed figures tend to run their competition off their feet in the final furlongs — Pete's Legacy fits that mold.

place6Our Heavenly GiftML 6/1

Our Heavenly Gift owns a 70.97 TrackWiz rating and posts a 52 average speed figure while going around two turns for trainer Tammy Hornsby. The 6/1 morning line is fair, and jockey Cory Orm is a capable hand for a mile trip. She gives you a reliable underneath play in a race where the top horses are closely grouped on speed.

show3SeveranceML 8/1

Severance is worth a look in the show slot at 8/1 morning line — a 67.02 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure say he can compete in this field, and trainer Rhonda Thurman has him primed for a two-turn effort. His 15% career win rate is modest but shows he's not a chronic also-ran. At value odds, he's a trifecta piece worth including.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Wildwood Bell's eye-catching 100% career win rate will draw all the money in this allowance optional claimer, but our top-rated horse is sitting at better odds and has the figures to outrun the public's darling.

win5GoghML 3/1

Gogh leads all horses with an 81.18 TrackWiz rating and posts a 54 average speed figure — the best in the field — while going off at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Michele Boyce sends him out with Luis H. Colon aboard, and a 16% career win rate in allowance company suggests he's a grinder who can get the job done. With the public likely hammering the even-money horse, Gogh at 3/1 gives you legitimate ratings value with a real overlay attached.

place2Wildwood BellML EVN

Wildwood Bell's 100% career win rate will be the talk of the paddock, and trainer Scott Becker knows how to place horses. She's listed at even money on the morning line — the public's heavy play — and posts a solid 60.0 TrackWiz rating with a 53 average speed figure. Even if Gogh outduels her, Wildwood Bell's unbeaten record means she's unlikely to fall far off the board.

show8Playground WarriorML 15/1

Playground Warrior at 15/1 is the longshot play for exotic builders — a 58.52 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in this nine-horse field, and a 53 average speed figure that keeps him competitive. Trainer Dennis Hornbostel has him spotted here for a reason, and at a price that should pay well, he's an affordable trifecta inclusion behind your top two picks.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint full of winless horses, but one runner stands head and shoulders above the rest on the TrackWiz ratings scale — and her odds make the value conversation easy.

win10BelleinthetempleML 3/1

Belleinthetemple carries an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the rest of this maiden claiming field — the next closest is Tiny Tot Queen at 58.33, a massive 29-point gap. Trainer Ralph Martinez gets Ademar Santos in the irons, a jockey with multiple mounts on the card today. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's not a screaming overlay, but in a maiden race where the ratings separation is this dramatic, she's as close to a standout play as you'll find today.

place7Tiny Tot QueenML 2/1

Tiny Tot Queen is the second-rated horse in the field at 58.33 and draws in at 2/1 on the morning line, making her the most likely bridesmaid behind Belleinthetemple. Trainer Steve Manley puts Travis Wales up, and a 52 average speed figure shows she can match most of this group step for step. In an exacta underneath Belleinthetemple, she's the natural pairing.

show9O'Hara At DawnML 5/1

O'Hara At Dawn sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure, making her one of the more credible third options in this spread-out maiden field. Trainer Mike Durham also has Krazy Like Beth in the race, suggesting he's comfortable with multiple entries today. At 5/1, she gives trifecta players a fair-priced show anchor with a legitimate ratings basis.

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A rainy afternoon at Fairmount sets the stage for a card full of pace questions and surface intrigue. Earl's Outlaw is our marquee play to start the day, American Warrior offers real value in Race 2, and Diamondonice rounds out the free card with a strong number behind a fair morning line. For Disguised Devil, Pete's Legacy, Gogh, Belleinthetemple, and the full exotic strategy, subscribers have everything they need waiting in the premium analysis. Good luck out there — and stay dry.

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