Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — June 23, 2026

Tuesday, June 23, 20268 racesFairmount Park

Clear skies and 79°F greet us at Fairmount Park today for a full 8-race dirt card — about as clean a racing day as you can ask for in southern Illinois in late June. The fast, dry conditions should reward horses that can get to the front and dictate their own pace, so keep an eye on pace scenarios all afternoon.

The card runs the gamut: a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming sprints, a Maiden Claiming dash, a Starter Allowance closer, and a mix of straight Claiming routes and sprints in between. Our TrackWiz ratings are spread across a solid 69 to 89 range today, meaning there's genuine separation between contenders — always a good sign for finding value.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, while the back half of the card — including what looks like the strongest betting opportunities — is available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-three separate themselves from the rest of this Allowance Optional Claiming mile, but the favorite and the morning-line chalk are running close enough in ratings that pace scenario could shuffle the order.

win2Lucky MonicaML 2/1

Lucky Monica is the top-rated horse in the field at 88.54 and draws the morning-line 2/1, making her the public's choice for good reason. TrackWiz analysis has her well ahead of the competition on overall merit, and trainer Scott Becker has a horse that's been around the block — a 9% career win rate in this format is respectable for an allowance optional claimer. At a mile on the dirt, she'll need to settle and finish, and if she gets a clean trip in behind any early pace, she looks like the one to beat.

place6TryML 9/5

Try comes in at 9/5 on the morning line with an 82.93 TrackWiz rating — the second-best figure in the race — and trainer John C. Wainwright has this one primed for a strong effort. Her avg speed of 53 ties her with Nella and Harper Briana, but her overall rating separates her from that group. If Lucky Monica draws the early pressure, Try's stalking style could set up a strong late kick.

show4NellaML 5/2

Nella (No. 4) brings the best career win percentage in this field at 12% and logs an avg speed of 53 under jockey Ademar Santos. Her 78.45 TrackWiz rating slots her firmly third in the rankings, and in a race where pace could scramble the top two, she's a sensible exotic anchor. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis has a horse in good enough form to hit the board at 5/2.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong dirt claiming sprint is headlined by a surprising longshot sitting atop TrackWiz ratings while the morning-line favorite checks in rated below two other rivals — pace and price both deserve attention here.

win5Two Step JakeML 15/1

Two Step Jake is our top-rated horse at 69.58 despite opening at 15/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect that bettors should notice. What jumps off the page is his 18% career win rate, one of the best in the field, suggesting this horse knows how to finish the job when conditions align. Trainer Duane Wells has him in a 6-furlong dirt sprint where his avg speed of 52 is competitive, and jockey Javier O. Ortega can get him into a good position early. The price alone makes this the most interesting ticket in the race.

place8GibranML 8/5

Gibran opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and carries an 18% career win rate alongside a 67.27 TrackWiz rating, putting him in the thick of things despite ranking second to Two Step Jake on our model. Trainer Ralph Martinez and jockey Alexander Bendezu are a familiar combination at this level, and an avg speed of 53 gives Gibran legitimate finishing punch in a 6-furlong dash. He's the logical place bet if you're fading him to win.

show9Stunning BrunoML 4/1

Stunning Bruno ties Gibran with an avg speed of 54 — the best in the field — and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line with a 66.98 TrackWiz rating nearly identical to the favorite's. Trainer Mark W. Anderson has a 9% career winner in this spot, and at six furlongs, raw early speed matters. Bruno's avg speed figure gives him a real shot to be running at the wire.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer with no career winners in the field — but TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story, with a 5/1 shot leading a longshot-friendly pace setup where the two morning-line favorites don't match up as well as their odds suggest.

win8Averyz DayML 5/1

Averyz Day (No. 8) is our top-rated horse in this maiden field at 84.17, and at 5/1 on the morning line, that's genuine value worth chasing. Victor Lara gets the call for trainer Harry E. Lynch, and while this is a maiden claimer full of horses without a win, Averyz Day's rating separates her from the field by a meaningful margin. Her avg speed of 52 is right in the pack, but overall TrackWiz score suggests she's been doing more right than her price implies.

place7Richochet RickML 9/5

Richochet Rick opens at 9/5 — the second choice on the morning line — and backs that up with a 77.85 TrackWiz rating, second best in the race. Trainer Heather Irion sends this one out under Johanis Aranguren, and an avg speed figure of 54 (tied for tops in the field) means he'll be a factor early. In a maiden field this unpredictable, his combination of speed and ratings make him a solid place play.

show4SupremestML 8/5

Supremest is the 8/5 morning-line favorite but only checks in third on TrackWiz ratings at 59.00, which is worth noting. Trainer Heather Irion has two horses in this race, and Supremest's avg speed of 53 keeps her competitive. She's a reasonable show play if you want exposure to the probable public choice without committing to the win.

Our three free races today give you a nice cross-section of the card. Lucky Monica opens the show in Race 1 going a mile at 2/1 on the morning line, carrying our highest free-race rating at 88.54 — that's a horse we like a lot at that distance on a sealed-up dirt track. In the wide-open Race 2, Two Step Jake is our top pick at a juicy 15/1 morning line, which tells you right away this is a pace-scenario play and a genuine longshot angle worth exploring. Then in Race 3, Averyz Day at 5/1 stands out in the Maiden Claiming sprint as a horse our model believes is being underestimated by the oddsmakers.

With the track playing fast under clear skies, early pace will be at a premium today. All three free picks have profiles that fit — watch for horses that can establish position through the first turn rather than sitting off a hot pace and hoping for the best.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Midnight's Girl looks like a standout class-and-form advantage in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but Rock the Birdhouse lurks as a sneaky value play at 8/1 that the TrackWiz model rates much higher than the morning line suggests.

win4Midnight's GirlML 6/5

Midnight's Girl is the class of this field, posting the top TrackWiz rating at 86.76 and opening as the 6/5 favorite — and for once, the morning line and our model agree completely. Jockey Javier Tavares teams with trainer Frank C. Randazzo, Jr., and a 19% career win rate adds confidence to the form profile. Her avg speed of 54 leads the field, and at 5½ furlongs, that kind of early punch could put this race away before the stretch.

place7Rock the BirdhouseML 8/1

Rock the Birdhouse is the most interesting horse on the card at 8/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second-best in the race and well ahead of the third-ranked horse. Trainer Ralph Martinez doubles up in this race, and jockey Alexander Bendezu has enough experience at this level to navigate a nine-horse field. A 9% career win rate understates the horse's overall ability relative to today's field, and if Midnight's Girl draws any challenge up front, Rock the Birdhouse is right there to pick up the pieces.

show3Lily's WoofyML 5/2

Lily's Woofy (No. 3) is the most accomplished horse in the field on career win percentage at 22%, which tells you trainer Ralph Martinez has this horse placing consistently. Under Johanis Aranguren at 5/2, she's the third-rated horse at 64.57 on TrackWiz and provides a solid hedge in exotics. In a sprint where pace can scramble the order, a consistent closer with that win rate is exactly the kind of show horse you want underneath.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Camp Daddy towers over this claiming field at a mile and 70 yards, posting the top TrackWiz score by a wide margin, but a tight cluster of three horses sits in the 52–65 range behind him — making the exacta more interesting than the win.

win6Camp DaddyML 2/1

Camp Daddy is the standout play of this race, carrying an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the rest of the field — the next-best horse (Runningforcash, Redfield) check in more than 24 points lower. Travis Wales gets the mount for trainer Tammy Hornsby, and a 22% career win rate confirms this isn't a horse that just rates well on paper. Opening at 2/1, he's not a huge price, but when the model separates a horse this clearly from its peers at a mile-plus distance, you take the price and move on.

place4RunningforcashML 5/1

Runningforcash (No. 4) leads the secondary cluster with a 64.63 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 22% career win rate for trainer Ralph Martinez. Alexander Bendezu is aboard, and while his avg speed of 51 is the lowest in the field, the distance at a mile and 70 yards rewards horses with tactical speed and a strong finishing kick more than raw pace. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's a logical place ticket underneath the heavy favorite.

show7RedfieldML 3/1

Redfield (No. 7) is essentially tied with Runningforcash on TrackWiz ratings at 64.58 and opens at 3/1 for trainer James M. Watkins with jockey Javier Diego up. His 16% career win rate is solid, and an avg speed of 52 puts him in the thick of the pace scenario. At a price that's shorter than Runningforcash, he's the public's preferred exacta partner — and not without reason.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Volodymyr Z is a potential steamroller in this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — a 44% career win rate is simply extraordinary and our model backs it up, making the real question how much he'll pay and whether anyone can chase him down.

win6Volodymyr ZML 3/1

Volodymyr Z (No. 6) is one of the most compelling win plays on the entire card. His 44% career win rate is remarkable at any level and speaks to a horse who consistently gets the job done. Travis Wales rides for trainer Scott Becker, and a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 backs up the form — he's the clear top-rated horse in this allowance optional claimer. An avg speed of 54 matches the top figures in the field, and at 3/1, you're getting fair value on a horse whose winning habit is hard to argue with.

place3GrayhopML 6/1

Grayhop (No. 3) checks in third on TrackWiz ratings at 60.36 and posts a 13% career win rate for trainer Lori Plasters with jockey Cory Orm aboard. His avg speed of 53 is right in the pack for this six-furlong sprint, and at 6/1, he represents a sensible place play if you want to build exotics around the heavy TrackWiz favorite. The 6/1 price gives you a cushion if Volodymyr Z runs away with this one.

show2WeslanML 5/1

Weslan (No. 2) slots in with a 55.70 TrackWiz rating and ties Volodymyr Z and Fast Cross Traffic with an avg speed of 54 — one of the best speed figures in the race. Trainer John C. Wainwright sends him out at 5/1, and an 8% career win rate in allowance company suggests he's competitive at this level. He's the kind of show horse that can quietly pick up a piece in a race dominated by one clear top choice.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite Hot Dance doesn't lead the TrackWiz ratings — Chance Taker does, and at 6/1, that gap between public perception and model output creates the most interesting overlay opportunity of the night.

win1Chance TakerML 6/1

Chance Taker (No. 1) tops TrackWiz ratings in this nine-horse Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 82.71, and that 83% career win rate is almost certainly the best figure you'll see on a race card all season — an extraordinary record of finishing first. Trainer Scott Becker and jockey Alexander Bendezu team up on what looks like a live overlay at 6/1, well above what the model suggests is fair value. An avg speed of 54 is tied for the best in the field, and at six furlongs, speed and winning habit tend to decide things early.

place2Jet PackML 3/1

Jet Pack (No. 2) opens at 3/1 with a 76.56 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and a 30% career win rate that speaks to a consistent competitor. Trainer Steve Manley has him primed under Ademar Santos, and an avg speed of 54 means he won't be far off the pace in a six-furlong sprint. If Chance Taker draws him into a duel up front, Jet Pack is the horse most likely to hang on for a piece.

show9Hot DanceML 9/5

Hot Dance (No. 9) is the 9/5 morning-line favorite but ranks fifth on TrackWiz ratings at 67.06, which is a meaningful disconnect. Victor Santiago rides for trainer Scott Becker — same barn as Chance Taker — and a 20% career win rate is solid. While we prefer Chance Taker on ratings, Hot Dance's public support means she'll be a short price and likely surfaces in the money even if she doesn't win.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Swiss Guard is a dominant top-rated horse in this Starter Allowance route, but an 11-horse field at 1 1/16 miles means traffic trouble is real — the exotics here could pay handsomely if the chalk gets shuffled back.

win2Swiss GuardML 3/2

Swiss Guard (No. 2) leads the entire card in TrackWiz ratings tonight at 89.27, and trainer Steve Manley has jockey Ademar Santos aboard — a pairing that suggests connections are serious about winning this one. An 18% career win rate in starter allowance company is respectable, and the 3/2 morning-line price reflects public confidence in this horse's form. At 1 1/16 miles with 11 horses in the gate, clean early positioning will be key, but the model says this is the best horse in the race by a wide margin.

place5McMoneyML 3/1

McMoney (No. 5) is our second pick at a 79.74 TrackWiz rating for trainer Harry E. Lynch with Victor Lara up. A 19% career win rate mirrors Swiss Guard's consistency, and while his avg speed of 52 is on the lower end of the field, route racing at 1 1/16 miles rewards horses that settle and finish rather than early blazers. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's a legitimate place alternative that won't kill your payout.

show7Big CommerceML 5/2

Big Commerce (No. 7) checks in third on TrackWiz at 63.02 and stands out with a 25% career win rate — the best among the secondary contenders — for trainer Heather Irion under Johanis Aranguren. His avg speed of 54 is the best in the entire field, suggesting he fires a strong early move that could keep him near the front in this routing field. At 5/2, he's a solid show play and a natural exotic inclusion.

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Bottom line: Fairmount Park is giving us a beautiful racing day and a card with genuine intrigue from the jump. Lucky Monica in Race 1, Two Step Jake's longshot angle in Race 2, and Averyz Day in Race 3 are your free best bets — all fully detailed in the individual race previews below. For the complete picture, including Swiss Guard's pace setup in the finale and our exotic ticket recommendations, the full card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there today — play smart, stay patient, and let the horses do the work.

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