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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026

June 20, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

This card ran on June 20, 2026.

Best bets at Fairmount Park, June 20, 2026

Race 14Free ChoiceML 4/52:30 PM EDT

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It's a pleasant Saturday afternoon at Fairmount Park — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F means the track crew has had ideal drying conditions, and we're expecting a fast, consistent dirt surface throughout the day. Eight races on the board, all going six furlongs on the main track, which tells you right away this is a speed-friendly card where pace scenario and early position are going to matter a lot.

The card mixes maiden claimers and straight claimers at the lower levels with a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that figure to draw the sharpest horses on the grounds today. Don't let the one-distance, one-surface format fool you — there's genuine wagering depth here, and our TrackWiz models have identified some interesting angles up and down the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer with a dominant morning-line favorite who towers over the field on ratings — but a couple of intriguing second-flight horses make the exotics worth a look.

win4Free ChoiceML 4/5

Free Choice (4) is the clear class of this maiden claiming field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 21 points clear of the next-best horse. Alexander Bendezu gets the call, and that 4/5 morning line tells you the oddsmakers agree. With an average speed figure of 54 in a field where most are clustered at 51-53, Free Choice has the edge on raw ability. In a maiden field with no career wins to separate anyone, the ratings gap here is simply too wide to ignore.

place6Young MischiefML 5/2

Young Mischief (6) checks in with a 68.82 TrackWiz rating — a solid second-best in a thin field — and Reynier Arrieta gives the horse a live rail. The 5/2 morning line reflects real public confidence, and if Free Choice meets any trouble, Young Mischief has the speed figure profile (avg 53) to be right there at the wire.

show2Hunts PromiseML 4/1

Hunts Promise (2) catches our eye at 4/1 as the third-ranked horse by rating (45.58) in a six-horse maiden field that doesn't project deep. Victor Lara rides for Harry E. Lynch, and while the figures aren't flashy, the horse has the speed to hang around in a short six-furlong sprint where early pace can shake things up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

South of Birminham looks like a heavy chalk, but the 90-rating favorite faces a few live rivals who bring real career experience and a surprise 10/1 value lurking in the middle of the pack.

win5South of BirminhamML 4/5

South of Birminham (5) carries a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating into this six-furlong claiming sprint and is on the morning line at 4/5 for good reason. Victor Lara handles the mount for Ben Delong, and with an avg speed of 53 and a 6% career win rate in what is otherwise a modest field, the horse simply grades out on top. The edge here is comprehensive — no single rival comes within 25 points on our ratings scale.

place4Heavens HoundML 10/1

Heavens Hound (4) is the most interesting horse behind the favorite — a 20% career win rate is the best in the field, and a 64.46 TrackWiz rating puts it clearly in second place by our analysis. Cory Orm rides for Tammy Hornsby, and while the 10/1 morning line suggests the public isn't sold, that career win percentage signals a horse who knows how to finish.

show7I Got the MovesML 4/1

I Got the Moves (7) matches Heavens Hound nearly point-for-point on the TrackWiz scale (64.11) and ties for the field's best avg speed figure at 53. Trainer Terry Burdess sends out Ademar Santos, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this horse shapes up as a legitimate show-ticket anchor in a race where the top three by ratings are bunched.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The first three races give everyone a free look at today's card, and all three are six-furlong dirt sprints — no surprises at Fairmount. Free Choice opens the day in the Maiden Claiming ranks and draws our top rating among the openers. South of Birminham follows in Race 2, also posting a 90 rating at the 4/5 morning line, which suggests a horse our analysis views as a near-lock on paper — though at short chalk, the value conversation is worth having before you commit. Race 3 brings Looks Lucky to Me into a Claiming field under the same conditions, rounding out a trio of morning-line favorites that our models endorse as legitimate top choices.

One thread connecting all three free picks: in warm, dry conditions on a compact oval like Fairmount, horses that can secure a forward position early have a demonstrable edge at six furlongs. Watch the gate and the opening fractions — if any of these favorites break cleanly and get to their preferred spot, the races may not be close.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Looks Lucky to Me enters as a prohibitive favorite, but a contentious mid-field group with multiple horses sporting 20%-plus career win rates could make the exotics spicy.

win6Looks Lucky to MeML 4/5

Looks Lucky to Me (6) sits atop the field with a 90 TrackWiz rating and a 4/5 morning line that matches the dominant profile. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends Ademar Santos to the irons, a barn that also saddles Takethesilver in this same race — a sign of confidence in keeping the top horse honest. The horse's avg speed of 53 is in line with the field, but the rating margin over the competition is substantial enough that on a clean trip, this should be a wire-to-wire performance.

place4Dessert FirstML 6/1

Dessert First (4) is our place play at 6/1, bringing a 69.01 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — under Javier Diego for trainer Gabe Retana. A career win percentage of 11% isn't eye-popping, but the rating edge over the rest of the field below the top two is meaningful, and 6/1 odds offer genuine value if the favorite gets caught up in traffic.

show1Bella FrancescaML 5/1

Bella Francesca (1) draws the rail and has the second-highest avg speed figure in the race at 54, matching the top horses stride for stride on raw numbers. Reynier Arrieta guides for Heather Irion, and that 14% career win rate shows this horse has been here before. At 5/1 on the morning line, Bella Francesca is a solid show-ticket piece who can capitalize if the pace up front gets hot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

3:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming card tightens up considerably — three horses within two points of each other on the TrackWiz scale, setting up a genuine three-horse battle at the top.

win3Natalia's RapML 3/2

Natalia's Rap (3) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.18 and sports the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 44% — nearly half of all career starts have ended in victories. Alexander Bendezu climbs aboard for Scott Becker, a trainer who also saddles second-choice Peytons Honor, showing real barn depth. The 3/2 morning line is fair for a horse with this resume, and at six furlongs on dirt, a 44% career win rate is a number that simply demands respect.

place5Arose for LylaML 5/2

Arose for Lyla (5) is breathing right down Natalia's Rap's neck at 85.88 on the TrackWiz scale — just 0.30 points separating the two. Travis Wales rides for Eddie M. Essenpreis, and with an avg speed of 54 and an 18% career win rate, this horse brings legitimate ability that the 5/2 morning line accurately reflects. Don't sleep on the possibility that Arose for Lyla presses the pace and outlasts the favorite late.

show2Peytons HonorML 6/1

Peytons Honor (2) rounds out our top three with a 82.71 rating and a strong 40% career win percentage — second-best in the field behind the favorite. Julio E. Felix takes the mount for Scott Becker, who sends out two horses here, and the 6/1 morning line looks generous for a horse with this level of career success. In a race where the top three are tightly bunched, Peytons Honor is a strong show anchor and an intriguing exacta saver.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

4:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming field with two clear leaders — Cookin the Books and Thirsty Natalie — sitting within two points of each other on our ratings, while a hidden value lurks further back at 12/1.

win9Cookin the BooksML 2/1

Cookin the Books (9) tops the TrackWiz field at 88.54 and draws the 2/1 morning line — offering slightly more value than the heavy chalk in neighboring races. Ademar Santos pilots for James M. Watkins, and the 16% career win rate in a large field is respectable. The avg speed of 53 keeps pace with the best in the race, and in a ten-horse sprint, the outside post at nine could allow Santos to find a clean run without getting shuffled back early.

place4Thirsty NatalieML 8/5

Thirsty Natalie (4) is nearly the equal of the top pick — 87.05 TrackWiz rating and the field's best avg speed figure at 54. Johanis Aranguren rides for Steve Manley, who also saddles Cocktail Cutie in this race, and the 8/5 morning line marks this horse as the public's slight preference over our top-rated runner. A 15% career win rate in a highly competitive field is nothing to dismiss.

show5Cocktail CutieML 12/1

Cocktail Cutie (5) opens at 12/1 but checks in with a 58.73 TrackWiz rating — the third-highest in the race — and shares a barn with the place pick under Steve Manley. Victor Lara takes the mount, and while the 6% career win rate is modest, the avg speed of 52 and the trainer's two-horse strategy here suggest Cocktail Cutie could benefit from a pace scenario set up by the barn's top runner. A sneaky show-ticket piece at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Santino's Fantasy looks like the class of a wide-open ten-horse claiming field, but Boldish brings sneaky numbers for Ralph Martinez, and the pace scenario in a large field could produce a chaotic stretch run.

win8Santino's FantasyML 2/1

Santino's Fantasy (8) owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and lands at 2/1 on the morning line — that's a very workable price for the best horse on paper. Alexander Bendezu takes the call for trainer Ralph Martinez, and with a 13% career win rate and an avg speed of 54 (among the field's best), the horse profiles as a pressing type who can handle a fast early pace. Martinez has multiple runners in this card today and clearly expects this one to fire.

place9BoldishML 4/1

Boldish (9) is our place pick at 4/1, posting a 78.12 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Victor Lara rides for Harold Mosier, and a 15% career win rate suggests Boldish has been competitive at this level before. The 51 avg speed is slightly off the leaders, but in a ten-horse field with potential pace chaos up front, a stalker profile could be golden in the stretch.

show6AndthethunderrollsML 9/2

Andthethunderrolls (6) brings a 62.4 TrackWiz rating and a 9/2 morning line, making it the third-ranked horse by our metrics in this field. Cory Orm rides for Gene J. Sandrowski, and while the 12% career win rate is unspectacular, the horse's avg speed of 51 could be misleading — figures can improve sharply at this level in a pace-honest race. At 9/2, there's legitimate show value here as an exotic anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 7

5:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The second allowance optional claiming race of the night throws out the morning line — the 7/5 favorite grades out well below our top-rated horse, setting up a compelling upset scenario in an eleven-horse field.

win5Excellent EmpireML 8/1

Excellent Empire (5) is our top pick at 8/1 despite sitting off the public's pace — the horse owns a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and, critically, a 35% career win percentage that stands head and shoulders above every other runner in this field. Angel Ortega Stanley rides for Ralph Martinez, a trainer who has been active all card long today. That career win rate of 35% in what grades as an allowance optional claiming field says this horse knows how to win, and 8/1 is a number that demands a ticket.

place7Personal JetML 10/1

Personal Jet (7) catches our eye at 10/1 as a genuine pace threat with the field's best avg speed figure at 55 — a tick above the top-rated horses. Travis Wales pilots for Heather Irion, and the 57.59 TrackWiz rating combined with that top-end speed figure suggests a horse who can put rivals away if allowed to find a comfortable early position. At double-digit odds in an allowance field, this is a strong value play in the exacta.

show1Hand Over My HeartML 12/1

Hand Over My Heart (1) draws the rail and posts a 57.53 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to Personal Jet — with a 17% career win rate that shows genuine competitive ability. Ademar Santos rides for Eddie M. Essenpreis, and the avg speed of 54 keeps pace with most of the top runners. At 12/1 on the morning line, this horse is worth including underneath in exotics for bettors who think the public underestimates Essenpreis in this spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 8

5:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A sprawling twelve-horse maiden special weight with a fascinating split between the morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse — creating a real debate between public opinion and TrackWiz numbers.

win6Hang TuffML 8/1

Hang Tuff (6) is our top pick at 8/1 and leads the entire field on our ratings scale at 71.29 — a full 11 points clear of the second-ranked runner. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Robert Pompell, and while all horses in this field are winless by definition, the rating gap is hard to overlook. In a twelve-horse MSW sprint where chaos is always possible, having the highest-rated horse at 8/1 is a significant overlay that TrackWiz analysis strongly supports.

place5ItdontcomeeasyML EVN

Itdontcomeeasy (5) is the morning-line favorite at even money and brings a 60 TrackWiz rating — solidly in the top three in this field. Victor Santiago rides for Scott Becker, and that even-money price reflects serious public confidence in this barn's ability to win maiden races. An avg speed of 53 in a field with multiple horses at 51-52 is a small but real edge in what could be a pace-honest race.

show3Midwest WildcatML 5/2

Midwest Wildcat (3) rounds out our top three at 5/2 on the morning line with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 53 avg speed figure. Ademar Santos takes the call for trainer Steve Manley, who has been a presence throughout this entire card today. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public respects this horse in the second-flight group, and with top-tier connections and solid underlying numbers, Midwest Wildcat is a natural show anchor in a wide-open maiden field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: the free races give you three strong top picks to build an early foundation, and the value highlight of the day is Excellent Empire in Race 7 at 8/1 — a number that looks too big for what our analysis sees. Fast track, six furlongs wall-to-wall, and a card that rewards homework. Unlock the full analysis, pace projections, and exotic plays for Races 4–8 with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing — and good luck at the windows today.

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