Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — June 20, 2026
It's a pleasant Saturday afternoon at Fairmount Park — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F means the track crew has had ideal drying conditions, and we're expecting a fast, consistent dirt surface throughout the day. Eight races on the board, all going six furlongs on the main track, which tells you right away this is a speed-friendly card where pace scenario and early position are going to matter a lot.
The card mixes maiden claimers and straight claimers at the lower levels with a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots that figure to draw the sharpest horses on the grounds today. Don't let the one-distance, one-surface format fool you — there's genuine wagering depth here, and our TrackWiz models have identified some interesting angles up and down the card.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden claimer with a dominant morning-line favorite who towers over the field on ratings — but a couple of intriguing second-flight horses make the exotics worth a look.
Free Choice (4) is the clear class of this maiden claiming field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 21 points clear of the next-best horse. Alexander Bendezu gets the call, and that 4/5 morning line tells you the oddsmakers agree. With an average speed figure of 54 in a field where most are clustered at 51-53, Free Choice has the edge on raw ability. In a maiden field with no career wins to separate anyone, the ratings gap here is simply too wide to ignore.
Young Mischief (6) checks in with a 68.82 TrackWiz rating — a solid second-best in a thin field — and Reynier Arrieta gives the horse a live rail. The 5/2 morning line reflects real public confidence, and if Free Choice meets any trouble, Young Mischief has the speed figure profile (avg 53) to be right there at the wire.
Hunts Promise (2) catches our eye at 4/1 as the third-ranked horse by rating (45.58) in a six-horse maiden field that doesn't project deep. Victor Lara rides for Harry E. Lynch, and while the figures aren't flashy, the horse has the speed to hang around in a short six-furlong sprint where early pace can shake things up.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
South of Birminham looks like a heavy chalk, but the 90-rating favorite faces a few live rivals who bring real career experience and a surprise 10/1 value lurking in the middle of the pack.
South of Birminham (5) carries a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating into this six-furlong claiming sprint and is on the morning line at 4/5 for good reason. Victor Lara handles the mount for Ben Delong, and with an avg speed of 53 and a 6% career win rate in what is otherwise a modest field, the horse simply grades out on top. The edge here is comprehensive — no single rival comes within 25 points on our ratings scale.
Heavens Hound (4) is the most interesting horse behind the favorite — a 20% career win rate is the best in the field, and a 64.46 TrackWiz rating puts it clearly in second place by our analysis. Cory Orm rides for Tammy Hornsby, and while the 10/1 morning line suggests the public isn't sold, that career win percentage signals a horse who knows how to finish.
I Got the Moves (7) matches Heavens Hound nearly point-for-point on the TrackWiz scale (64.11) and ties for the field's best avg speed figure at 53. Trainer Terry Burdess sends out Ademar Santos, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this horse shapes up as a legitimate show-ticket anchor in a race where the top three by ratings are bunched.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Looks Lucky to Me enters as a prohibitive favorite, but a contentious mid-field group with multiple horses sporting 20%-plus career win rates could make the exotics spicy.
Looks Lucky to Me (6) sits atop the field with a 90 TrackWiz rating and a 4/5 morning line that matches the dominant profile. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends Ademar Santos to the irons, a barn that also saddles Takethesilver in this same race — a sign of confidence in keeping the top horse honest. The horse's avg speed of 53 is in line with the field, but the rating margin over the competition is substantial enough that on a clean trip, this should be a wire-to-wire performance.
Dessert First (4) is our place play at 6/1, bringing a 69.01 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — under Javier Diego for trainer Gabe Retana. A career win percentage of 11% isn't eye-popping, but the rating edge over the rest of the field below the top two is meaningful, and 6/1 odds offer genuine value if the favorite gets caught up in traffic.
Bella Francesca (1) draws the rail and has the second-highest avg speed figure in the race at 54, matching the top horses stride for stride on raw numbers. Reynier Arrieta guides for Heather Irion, and that 14% career win rate shows this horse has been here before. At 5/1 on the morning line, Bella Francesca is a solid show-ticket piece who can capitalize if the pace up front gets hot.
The first three races give everyone a free look at today's card, and all three are six-furlong dirt sprints — no surprises at Fairmount. Free Choice opens the day in the Maiden Claiming ranks and draws our top rating among the openers. South of Birminham follows in Race 2, also posting a 90 rating at the 4/5 morning line, which suggests a horse our analysis views as a near-lock on paper — though at short chalk, the value conversation is worth having before you commit. Race 3 brings Looks Lucky to Me into a Claiming field under the same conditions, rounding out a trio of morning-line favorites that our models endorse as legitimate top choices.
One thread connecting all three free picks: in warm, dry conditions on a compact oval like Fairmount, horses that can secure a forward position early have a demonstrable edge at six furlongs. Watch the gate and the opening fractions — if any of these favorites break cleanly and get to their preferred spot, the races may not be close.
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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: the free races give you three strong top picks to build an early foundation, and the value highlight of the day is Excellent Empire in Race 7 at 8/1 — a number that looks too big for what our analysis sees. Fast track, six furlongs wall-to-wall, and a card that rewards homework. Unlock the full analysis, pace projections, and exotic plays for Races 4–8 with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing — and good luck at the windows today.