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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

November 13, 20268 racesAll Evangeline picks

Best bets at Evangeline today

Race 19Rm Invasor PatriotML 2/16:35 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Evangeline: our top pick won 14 of 70 races (20%) and finished in the money in 46.

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Rm Invasor Patriot is our top play on tonight's card — opening Race 1 with the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.92 sec/furlong and a claiming price drop from $10,000 down to $5,000 that screams "this horse is meant to win tonight." That combination of speed and class relief is exactly the kind of angle TrackWiz analysis is built to spot.

Conditions at Evangeline Downs are as good as it gets for a November Friday night — clear skies, a crisp 56°F, and a fast dirt strip ready for quick times across all eight sprints. Every race on the card goes on the dirt, and distances range from a blink-and-you-miss-it 220 yards all the way out to 350 yards, so the entire night belongs to the Quarter Horse crowd.

Eight races, one free look, and a full card loaded with claiming drops, a solid allowance, and a Starter Optional Claiming feature that has us especially interested. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Ten maidens breaking from the gates in the 250-yard opener, and the top of the TrackWiz ratings is well-separated from the bottom half — but every horse here is unproven, so raw talent and recent speed are doing the heavy lifting.

win9Rm Invasor PatriotML 2/1

Rm Invasor Patriot is the class of this field on paper, drawing the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and topping the board in our 10,000-race simulations with a 26.68% win share. His recent race speed ranks first in the field at 11.92 sec/furlong, and a 42% in-the-money rate across his career gives him a legit foundation. The one flag worth watching: he's coming off 30 days of rest and our data shows he's performed markedly better with shorter turnarounds — something to factor in if you're considering heavy action at his 2/1 morning line.

place2Jess HereinML 5/1

Jess Herein rates second in the field at 82.15 and has placed in three of his last five races, showing consistency that's hard to ignore in a wide-open maiden claimer. His recent race speed clocks at 12.26 sec/furlong — third-best in the field — and his 41% career in-the-money rate supports a place ticket. The concern is a short 21-day rest period when he actually performs better with 30-plus days between starts, so he's a bit of a situational play.

show10The Lost PrincessML 6/1

The Lost Princess brings a compelling local angle — she's placed in three of four starts right here at Evangeline, which is exactly the kind of track-specific form that gets overlooked when bettors fixate on morning-line favorites. She carries a 45% in-the-money percentage and a TrackWiz rating of 75.80, ranking third in the field, and our sims give her a 14.47% win share that's notably stronger than her 6/1 morning line implies. She won't blow anyone away on pure speed figures, but she knows this track.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Rm Invasor Patriot27%
2Jess Herein17%
10The Lost Princess14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 1 is your free preview tonight, and Rm Invasor Patriot gives casual bettors a genuine reason to open a tab. The claiming price cut from $10K to $5K is a classic "trainer means business" signal — connections are putting this horse in a spot where it can compete, and the speed numbers back it up. At 2/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz sim win percentage of 26.68%, this is a horse that justifies its favoritism rather than just wearing it.

The clear, cool conditions tonight favor horses with clean recent form, and on a short 250-yard dash where there's no time to make up ground, speed off the break is everything. Rm Invasor Patriot's recent velocity numbers lead the field — that's the edge, plain and simple.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A seven-horse claiming sprint at 300 yards where the top-rated horse is stepping up in class — that tension between form and price creates a genuinely interesting betting puzzle with real value hiding in the mid-range of the field.

win7Rogue EffortML 7/2

Rogue Effort leads the TrackWiz ratings at 76.67 and has been in excellent form lately, hitting the board in four of his last five starts — that's the kind of recency that matters in short-distance sprints where little separates the field. His recent race speed ranks third at 11.87 sec/furlong, and the Jockey/Horse combination here has a 15% win rate with 41% in-the-money finishes over their shared history. The notable concern is that Rogue Effort skips Lasix today while six rivals are using it, and he's stepping up in claiming price from $7,500 to $10,000 — both factors are real, so keep your bet size honest.

place3Sheaza HeroML 12/1

Sheaza Hero is an interesting price at 12/1 on the morning line given what the data says — she's placed in four of her last six races and owns a perfect-looking 4-for-4 record at the 300-yard distance including a win. Her career in-the-money rate sits at 55% and trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III earns an A- grade from our model. She's the kind of horse who quietly fits every box for the place and show spots and offers real value at a double-digit price.

show2Fast Dashin FortuneML 5/2

Fast Dashin Fortune ranks first in the field for recent race speed at 11.67 sec/furlong — that's a real edge in a 300-yard sprint where early momentum is everything. She carries a 50% career in-the-money rate and two wins on dirt to go along with a 20% career win percentage. The concern is she's failed to hit the board in her last four starts, so she's coming into this race cold — but that speed figure and the price at 5/2 make her a worthwhile show-ticket inclusion.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Fast Dashin Fortune21%
7Rogue Effort19%
1Rlr Jess Mischief17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:25 PM EST

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

An all-maiden 350-yard field where the morning-line favorite isn't even the top-rated horse by TrackWiz metrics, setting up a genuinely wide-open race where our model and the oddsmakers are pointing in different directions.

win1Sizzle Me FavoriteML 6/1

Sizzle Me Favorite tops the TrackWiz ratings at 73.65 despite not being the morning-line favorite, and she's been building nicely — she's placed in her last two races and in three of her last five overall. Her recent race speed clocks third-best in the field at 12.13 sec/furlong, and a 33% career in-the-money rate is respectable for a maiden. The 6/1 morning line offers solid value given she's the top-rated horse in the field and showing improving form.

place7Jes MyluckML 4/1

Jes Myluck rates second among our picks at 64.22 and has placed in two of her last three races, with two of two recent starts producing in-the-money finishes — that's a horse trending the right direction heading into today. The jockey here, Pedro Chavarria Espinosa, earns an A- grade from our model, which is a meaningful edge in a maiden field. She's failed to place in either of her two starts at Evangeline specifically and has struggled at the 350-yard trip, so she needs to flip the track/distance script — but the form is there to do it.

show2Inseperable BlueML 20/1

Inseperable Blue at 20/1 is one of the more intriguing overlays on the card — she ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 11.78 sec/furlong and carries a 57% career in-the-money rate, which is genuinely elite for a maiden claimer. She's placed in her last two races and owns a win on dirt, making her form line far more respectable than that big morning-line number suggests. The knock is she's nearly two years older than the field average, which can matter in young horse races — but at 20/1, the price more than accounts for that concern, and she's worth tossing in underneath in exactas.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Jd Four Choos21%
1Sizzle Me Favorite18%
7Jes Myluck17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

7:50 PM EST

Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

Famous Painting dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 220-yard claimer, but a wide field of double-digit starters creates real exotic opportunity underneath — especially with a couple of overpriced mid-field horses showing sharp recent figures.

win7Famous PaintingML 2/1

Famous Painting is the standout in this field, sitting atop the TrackWiz ratings at 88.06 and winning our 10,000-race simulations at a 29.24% clip — by far the highest in the field. She's placed in her last two races and in two of three career starts on dirt, posting a 33% career win rate that makes her morning-line 2/1 look fair rather than short. Trainer Dondrick London earns an A grade from our model, and jockey J.R. Ramirez a B — this is a well-connected, in-form horse who is the logical single in multi-race wagers.

place6Tg Amount DasherML 12/1

Tg Amount Dasher is a fascinating place play at 12/1 — she's the second-highest rated horse in the field at 73.96 yet opens at a double-digit price, suggesting the market is undervaluing her significantly. Her jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez has posted an 18% win rate and 51% in-the-money finish rate over the past year, and the jockey/trainer combination here runs at 19% wins and 57% in-the-money — that's a live connection. She is stepping up in claiming price from $5,000 to $10,000, so the class jump is a real question, but the talent level and the connections make her the top value play in the race.

show10San Lorenzo CashML 9/2

San Lorenzo Cash ranks third in our ratings at 64.09 and clocks the second-best recent race speed figure in the field at 12.13 sec/furlong, giving her a legitimate speed edge in what is a very short race format. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez earns an A from our model, and jockey Leonardo Rodriguez an A+ grade. The concern is she's failed to place in her last three races — she's coming in cold — but the talent and connections at 9/2 make her a reasonable show ticket in a field this wide.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Famous Painting29%
5Brookes Golden Girl15%
10San Lorenzo Cash13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

8:15 PM EST

Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

An Optional Claiming sprint at 300 yards with a deep ten-horse field and legitimate separation at the top of the ratings — but age questions linger over several contenders, keeping the race more open than the top two prices suggest.

win10Cm Dashing CartelML 8/1

Cm Dashing Cartel leads all horses in TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and is the most accomplished horse in this field — she's won three times and placed in eight of twelve career dirt starts, and her recent race speed ranks second at 11.45 sec/furlong. The jockey/trainer combination of Noe Castaneda and Jose U. Lopez has a 22% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate over the past year, making this one of the sharper connections on the card. At 8/1 on the morning line, she's attractively priced for a horse that won 14.74% of our 10,000 simulations — she figures to offer overlay value if that price holds.

place5Carter Baby Dont CryML 7/2

Carter Baby Dont Cry has quietly built one of the most impressive recent form lines in the race — she's placed in her last five consecutive starts and owns a 72% career in-the-money rate across 11 dirt starts. She ranks third in recent race speed at 11.51 sec/furlong and carries a 27% career win rate, both of which are strong numbers at this level. She's the class-proven, in-form type who belongs on every exotic ticket today.

show6India de La NieveML 6/1

India de La Nieve is as experienced as it gets in this field — six wins and 21 in-the-money finishes from 31 career dirt starts speaks to a horse that consistently competes. Her jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez has posted an 18% win rate over the past year, and the jockey/trainer combination here runs at 19% wins and 57% in-the-money, which is a consistently productive tandem. At 6/1, she offers solid show value and is a natural part of the exotics underneath the top two picks.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Carter Baby Dont Cry18%
7Dynasty Blood17%
10Cm Dashing Cartel15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

8:40 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Mg Logans is a heavy morning-line favorite in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, and the rating data backs that up — but the concern about her rest pattern leaves just enough doubt to keep the race from being a rubber-stamp single.

win4Mg LogansML 9/5

Mg Logans is the dominant figure in this race, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — the top mark in the field — and winning 34.97% of our 10,000 simulations, which is a commanding number. She's placed in five of her last six starts and ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 11.86 sec/furlong, so the form is current and her speed is real. The one legitimate concern: she's only 23 days off her last start and our data shows she performs better with 30-plus days of rest — that's worth noting, though her overall profile still makes her the clear top selection.

place3Shakin N My BootsML 6/1

Shakin N My Boots has been quietly consistent, placing in her last three straight races and in four of her last six overall — that kind of run makes her a reliable place and show ticket regardless of what happens at the top. She carries a 24% career win rate and a 44% in-the-money mark, respectable numbers for this level. Her recent race speed ranks seventh in the field, which is a genuine concern in a short sprint, but her consistency and current form make her the natural safety net in exactas and trifectas.

show2Womp On ItML 12/1

Womp On It opens at 12/1 but the data tells a more competitive story — she's posted a 16% career win rate and 44% in-the-money mark, and she owns a solid 2-for-6 record right at the 250-yard distance that's on tap today. The jockey/horse combination of Noe Castaneda and Womp On It has a 17% win rate and 45% in-the-money rate together, which is a productive pairing. She's also dropping in claiming price from $15,000 to $10,000, which is a classic class-relief angle worth flagging — at 12/1, she's the natural longshot inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Mg Logans35%
3Shakin N My Boots14%
6Shining Fire14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:05 PM EST

Allowance · 220 yd · Dirt

A tightly-bunched allowance field at 220 yards where three horses are separated by just a few rating points at the top — this is the kind of race where connections and recent form do as much work as the figures.

win6Different CoronaML 4/1

Different Corona leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and has been in excellent form, placing in four of her last six starts on dirt with two wins from ten career dirt efforts. She ranks third in the field for recent race speed at 11.91 sec/furlong and carries a 60% career in-the-money rate — that's elite consistency at this level. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's priced as a mid-field choice despite being the top-rated horse, and our simulations give her a 23.15% win share that makes her the best value at the top of the card.

place7Shes Jess SixyML 3/1

Shes Jess Sixy rates second in the field at 82.53 and comes in with live connections — jockey Noe Castaneda and trainer Jose U. Lopez have teamed up for a 22% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate over the past year, which is one of the stronger combos on the entire card today. She's placed in her last two races and owns a 53% career in-the-money rate across 13 dirt starts. At 3/1, the morning line is fair, and she's a natural exacta partner with the top pick.

show4Another Gold HeartML 9/5

Another Gold Heart rates third in the field at 79.72 and owns a perfect record at the 220-yard distance — one win and placed in all three career starts at this exact trip. She ranks second in the field for recent race speed at 11.88 sec/furlong, sharing that figure with the top-rated horse in the race. She's a relatively lightly-raced horse by career win percentage (4%), so we don't have a ton of data to lean on, but the distance record and speed figures make her a legitimate show play at 9/5.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Different Corona23%
4Another Gold Heart23%
7Shes Jess Sixy22%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

9:30 PM EST

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Vooduu enters as a clear class standout in this ten-horse 300-yard claimer, but a field full of claiming price drops creates a live undercard of horses trying to find their right spot — making this a good trifecta race underneath the top selection.

win3VooduuML 5/1

Vooduu tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and won 22.88% of our 10,000 simulations — the highest share in the field. Her recent race speed ranks second in the field at 11.75 sec/furlong, and she's placed in 11 of 18 career dirt starts with one win, showing durable, consistent form. Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez has posted an 18% win rate and 51% in-the-money rate over the past year, and trainer Kenneth Weeks earns an A- grade — this is a well-spotted, well-connected horse who gets a real shot to wire a beatable field.

place1For Fame ChileraML 5/2

For Fame Chilera leads the entire field in recent race speed at 11.64 sec/furlong — the fastest recent figure in the race — and she's also dropping sharply in claiming price from $20,000 down to $7,500, which is a significant class relief angle in her favor. She ranks second in the TrackWiz ratings at 71.0 and carries a 41% career in-the-money rate. Speed plus a class drop is a powerful combination in a sprint, and at 5/2 on the morning line she's priced attractively for a horse with legitimate winning credentials.

show8TaracoronagirlML 8/1

Taracoronagirl isn't flashy on the numbers — a 53.60 TrackWiz rating and 35% career in-the-money mark — but she's also dropping in claiming price from $10,000 to $7,500, suggesting connections are willing to let her find the right spot. She carries a trainer grade of B from our model and comes in at 8/1 on the morning line, which offers solid show value in a field where several horses have significant question marks in recent form. She's a reasonable trifecta/superfecta piece at a fair price.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Vooduu23%
1For Fame Chilera21%
7Never You11%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Tonight at Evangeline, Rm Invasor Patriot is the free play — speed plus a class drop is a hard combination to fade in a 250-yard sprint. If you want the full card, including Mg Logans in Race 6 and the longshot angle in Race 5, that's all waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz premium at /pricing and get the complete picture before the first gate opens tonight. Good luck out there.

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